Skip to comments.Deutsche Bank: There's A Massive Credit Spigot About To Superpower The U.S. Economy
Posted on 11/11/2010 10:33:55 AM PST by blam
Deutsche Bank: There's A Massive Credit Spigot About To Superpower The U.S. Economy
Nov. 11, 2010, 11:57 AM
The U.S. is on the brink of a massive credit explosion, brought on by quantitative easing and a willingness for banks to lend, according to Deutsche Bank.
This bullish call on the U.S. consumer and broader U.S. economy stems from a series of charts that point to new spending for those in the U.S. and a new willingness for banks to lend.
This goes in opposition to the data released by the New York Fed this week that suggested consumer demand for credit was collapsing because individuals were choosing to deleverage, rather than spend.
But Deutsche Bank begs to differ. The say, "The Credit Crunch Is Over" and now the demand for loans is about to kick off.
Click here for the charts >
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I think if the bamster coes back and signs legislation for the keeping the tax cuts intact, that WILL move markets...and have businesses borrowing to some extent.
I'm running out Monday for a 2 million dollar loan for a chain of worm farm stores. I got the idea from the movie Dumb and Dumber. After all, two years left with Obama in the White House, it's all good times from here on out.
And there's reason to believe that this will be for the wealthy as well.
Which means unemployment is going down.
Like this country needs more debt
And then there we'll all be right back in 2003 when the Bush economists were frantically trying to get Americans to further in-debt themselves by purchasing high dollar luxury items: Buy a car! Buy a home! Buy a new big screen HDTV!
I've seen this movie before, but I'm not allowed to walk out of the theater.
They make it sound like a colonoscopy!
What you said.
***I’m running out Monday for a 2 million dollar loan for a chain of worm farm stores.***
Thirty years ago worm farms were popular in NW Arkansas. Two years later you couldn’t find a worm farm anywhere. It was a scam like selling soap and rasing chinchillas or emus.
As for me? I got my retirement in tulips!
Yeah all those millions and millions who sold their homes at a loss, were foreclosed on, declared bankruptcy or walked away.....yeah they are going to go get a brand spanking new loan to play the scam again.
And then there are the tens of millions who have diligently continued to pay their mortgage while the value of their home has fallen and is under water. Will the banks refi or give a new loan to a home that is worth 25% - 30% less than it was just a few years ago?
I don’t think so.
I think a return to predatory lending and rampant loan shark brokers is going to do nothing but infuriate people even more.
America is angry and will stay that way until they get real justice as to what the banks and Fed have done to them.
“The U.S. is on the brink of a massive credit explosion, . . .”
Thank goodness. We’ve never had one before and it’s a surefire way to guarantee long term prosperity.
I think history would predict otherwise. The so-called extension of the Bush era tax cuts will not be experienced as a cut, or even as the extension of a cut. It won’t experienced at all because it doesn’t change anything; it leaves things as they are. It releases no productive capital; it raises no ones income; it creates no new spending power or potential for investment. It simply doesn’t take any of those things away which is a good thing in itself only in the sense that it is not a harmful thing.
And if you want to argue that the extension removes uncertainty I think the President’s deficit commission just went a long way toward restoring whatever uncertainty the President’s wise and timely capitulation on the tax front may have resolved.
Anyway, whatever. Aren’t these the same Germans who were shrieking aloud about how debasing our currency is the wrong course of action? Now their central bank heralds the move as the restoration of a golden age of consumer spending to fuel anew German export production? Does something sound a little wrong to you?—because it sure does to me.
I would believe Deutsche Bank WHY?:
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon appointed the panel, called the High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing, in February. Its led by Stoltenberg and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. The 21-member group also includes Soros, Summers and Deutsche Bank AG Vice Chairman Caio Koch- Weser.
The game is out in the open boys.
It’s like we just checked ourselves into rehab only to find an open bar waiting for us at reception. Drink up, losers.
Yes, it removes some anxiety about the anti-business bias that the Gov't had been operating under. It injects some hope (along with the the large majority in the House) that from here on in the Gov't will loose some of those chains which have been causing business to hoard capital and not expand.
As far as the deficit panel, I see a recommendation there to lower corporate taxes. I don't see that as a negative for the unemployment situation.
Thank goodness. Weve never had one before and its a surefire way to guarantee long term prosperity.I'll say. And I only use crystal-meth socially. I've got it completely under control.
It may usher in relatively more prosperity. In Germany.
As far as the deficit panel, I see a recommendation there to lower corporate taxes. I don't see that as a negative for the unemployment situation.Apparently you missed the part of the report that called for counting capital gains as part of your personal income which effectively raises the tax from 15% to as high as 28%, thereby increasing the cost of capital, thereby undermining capital formation which is the basis of new jobs. Oh, yeah, and then there's the US$1tn in new taxes that the panel calls for only they call it "spending within the tax code" for some reason. http://www.atr.org/obama-debt-commission-calls-forbr-trillion-a5647
“I’ll say. And I only use crystal-meth socially. I’ve got it completely under control.”
LOL. I prefer credit-crack. It’s much safer.
This is nonsense. There’s no shortage of money to lend, simply a shortage of those willing to lend it and those willing to borrow it.
Only a fool would be willing to take risks with Marxists in charge of the economy. That’s all that’s going on. Everyone is just sitting tight, trying to hold on to what they have and trying to keep it from being stolen and “redistributed”.
That’s what the “loss of confidence” is all about: trying to keep one’s hard earned cash from being stolen by the Obammunists. Trying to avoid an environment in which the Obammunists govern by fiat, change the rules and regulations daily, change taxation policy daily, heap job-killing burden after job-killing burden on the productive, steal bondholder’s rights on a whim, bailout failing union-dominated businesses, eschew the rule of law, ignore the Constitution, etc., etc.
Nothing is going to change and nothing is going to get better until the Marxists are run out of government lock stock and barrel. That can’t happen for another two years, and if it doesn’t happen then, why all you need to do is read Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged” to find out what’s going to happen.
Well the banks are trying to lend, I’m getting monthly letters from BofA and CapitalOne offering me 0% money for a year or so on balance transfers and that’s new. Of course they want their initial 3 or 4% fee which still gives them a tidy profit on the 0% money they get from the FED.
The money from the first two QEs was held back. Duh.
On another note, the hedge funds are starting to blow up, Phil Falcone’s multi-billion hedge, Harbinger.
The debt liquidation continues.
So let’s see if liquidity pumping can overcome debt liquidation.
It’s anybody’s horserace at this time.
If you have no debt and are sitting on cash, just pass the popcorn and watch.
A Repub-dominated House is not going to go for massive tax hikes.
This is what employers now are becoming aware of and, though still cautious, will begin to loosen their wallets especially if O folds on their tax cut extension. If he folds on such a high-profile promise, being willing to isolate his base, the feeling will become more prevalent that he will fold on other stuff as well. The word "triangulation" will be heard more and more.
Historically I believe, no country has managed to contain the genie of inflation once it is out of its lamp.
Asset prices, i.e. homes will rise in value but so will the price of gas, food and all our imported clothing and electronic goodies.
Reinflating like this is like chopping up the dining table and chairs and burning them on the living room floor to heat your house in a cold winter snap.
“the roof, the roof, the roof is on fire,
We don’t need no water, let the m-——f-—— burn”
-Esteemed musicologist and Fed consultant, the honorable George Clinton.
Popcorn, is great. :)
“I ain’t fallin’ for no banana in the tailpipe.”
This is what employers now are becoming aware of and, though still cautious, will begin to loosen their wallets especially if O folds on their tax cut extension. If he folds on such a high-profile promise, being willing to isolate his base, the feeling will become more prevalent that he will fold on other stuff as well. The word "triangulation" will be heard more and more.Part of what you seem to assume is the myth of the US$2tn in idle cash in the hands of corporations that refuse to release it in the form of investment until stabler times--only that US$2tn Eldorado in hoarded cash is being used to fund deleveraging--those same allegedly flush corporations are really not so flush--they're mired in the same debt crisis as the rest of the economy, and when demand bottoms out, and you hold lots of debt, the most rational course of action is to hoard cash and try to weather the storm as best you can. In other words, that alleged US$2tn is not wealth waiting to be invested; it is the precise opposite, the material aftermath of a massive crash.
Of course the banks are willing to lend. You mean you don’t think that the banks were withholding loans to slow business and rehiring down just to make the Dem’s look bad before the elections? Now that they have the election results they were looking for they will turn on the faucets.
Of course, they will also be looking for fewer restrictions, just like the fewer restrictions that got us into this mess in the first place and made them super rich. Tea Party people, watch them like a hawk!! Don’t let them pull this shxx on we the people!!!
I want summa what they’re smokin’!!!!!
If we were domestic energy producers...and the cost of energy wasn’t inverse to the value of the dollar..they might have a point.
However...every time the dollar goes down...thereby increasing overseas demands for our exports, and potentially increasing employment at home, the cost of oil rises...kneecapping the benefit of a weak dollar.
Somebody at Deutchebank is either stupid...or really wants out of a long dollar position......
Historically there's no doubt that productive companies withhold expansion when a leftist regime is in power...that just makes sense.
When the bias goes the other way and more political power is tilted toward the pro-business faction, businesses hire.
As far as Obamacare goes, any de-fanging the Repubs are able to do (and they will because they now hold the purse strings) will encourage business even more. The EPA? Yes, there are threats aplenty. However, with the prospect of losing even more power in '12 we'll see how far the Dems actually go with that.
“....homes will rise in value....”
Because of inflation? Higher inflation will eventually mean higher interest rates. Higher interest rates are not good for sales or consumer demand for houses. Inflation will mean higher commodity prices and higher prices for imported products that are not traditionally financed by the consumer.
Lavorgna, On the risk of further dollar devaluation from QE2...
‘We calculated for every 1% movement of trade weighted dollar is a $3B tax hike to consumers. We don’t need a lower dollar here.’
Once bitten twice shy here. I cannot with any amount of certainity believe that I will have the profits in the future to pay any debt accrued today. Input costs are going UP. Can I pass those costs along to my customers and will there be any capital left over for growth?
You mean you want Fannie/Freddie to be subject to more Cuomo-like edicts to rake in the subprimes? PLEASE!!
When the bias goes the other way and more political power is tilted toward the pro-business faction, businesses hire.This is where we fundamentally disagree. I don't subscribe to the confidence or good-feelings theory of economic growth where investors and market actors act on their perceptions of, or feelings about, the political or social climate. Some probably do, but they don't last long as they tend to pass quickly into a richly deserved bankruptcy. People invest when they can expect a reasonable return on their investment--that's it, that's the only reason. Yes, Republicans won the house in November, but the Senate, the White House, and the entire administrative base of the federal government remain in the hands of the other party, and even if the Republicans now ruled everything, the structural issues occasioned by the crash, or that caused the crash itself, would stubbornly refuse to disappear by act of electoral fiat, and our fiscal crisis would remain every bit as acute, and the costs of addressing it every bit as expensive.
They will collapse, but possibly after having a fake money-fueled orgasm.
We have lost any desire to borrow *any* money at *any* interest rate...
These SOB's can keep their stinking money.
Exactly!! Bush was pushing Buy Buy Buy after Sept 11 for example everyone bought GM cars at 0 percent interest.
A greatly weakened other party which is just about out of political capital. All the lies that got them this far just are no longer going to fly. You don't take into account public opinion which is what the other party needs to function. Bottom line...if you believe that the far-left has mostly shot their wad, you will be fairly optimistic at this point and will see that if Obama gives on his tax-cut pledge it shows he is pretty much out of capital as far as manipulating public opinion. But if you believe that what the Dems say still resonates as much with the public you will be pessimistic.
You don't take into account good feelings. However, good feelings are important when you're talking about public consumption and factually DO lead to people opening their wallets. For robotic investors who only spend when dry facts lead, they will also have plenty of reason to see that hiring makes better sense now than it did a year ago.
Yeah, but I think my Benjamins will soon become Grants and there ain't much I can do about that.
They are going to loan us this week the money we printed last week!
Short him, not me.
You don't take into account good feelings. However, good feelings are important when you're talking about public consumption and factually DO lead to people opening their wallets.Even for those without jobs or uncertain about whether they will have a job? What about their feelings? Say I accept your theory, I would still insist that until the structural problems occasioned by, or that caused the crisis, are resolved, there will be few good feelings to go around. People are not going to spend or, worse, run up their credit card bills again, just because Republicans are in office. If they're smart they're going to pay down their debts, spend as little as possible, and perhaps invest in commodities as a hedge against inflation if they have any surplus at all.
People are not going to spend or, worse, run up their credit card bills again, just because Republicans are in office. If they're smart they're going to pay down their debts, spend as little as possible
No, it's not the Repubs. It's the pro-business climate they will help create. I'm not saying people are going to run up their credit cards. But a better climate will begin to prevail where people won't be as scared and even the little guy will again feel confident to invest a little.
Paul Volcker and Ronald Reagan did a pretty good job of getting rid of it...
It was PAINFUL as hell... 22% interest rates.. but, it worked.