Skip to comments.Don't Pop the Corks for GM Just Yet
Posted on 11/20/2010 1:55:17 PM PST by jazusamo
Most news we hear regarding General Motor's IPO this week proclaim the event as a huge success. It would be prudent to consider whether the process leading up to and following the auto industry restructuring should be a template for future restructurings, as Alex Koch (head of Motors Liquidation or "Old GM") has stated. While some may argue the positive aspects of the GM bailout, it is more than just sour grapes or GM hating that contributes to a desire to have a continuing dialogue on the precedent setting procedures that may lead to a subversion of contract law that has governed for over 200 years in this country.
First, there should be recognition that some creditors were favored over others in the GM bankruptcy process. It can be spun any way apologists want, but the facts are clear that politically favored groups, i.e. the UAW, were favored over bondholders. Is this part of a new template to follow that is really in the best interest of America? While more time can be spent exploring the moral hazards of allowing the US Government to determine who should benefit in a bankruptcy process, for now there is a more pressing question. Did our government's actions actually fix what is wrong with GM?
For years, General Motors has been plagued by UAW costs, poor management, high debt and less than competitive products. The Obama Administration chose to turn to bankruptcy advisors and financial market experts when they created the Auto Task Force to restructure Chrysler and GM. If the desired outcome was to have a healthier American auto industry, I would argue that auto industry experts would have given better counsel to fix what was wrong with GM. The main benefit to GM as a result of its bankruptcy process was a removal of $27 billion of debt held by GM bondholders. This benefit, along with an infusion of taxpayer money, buys GM time as it tries to succeed in a highly competitive market. There are warning signs that this is a temporary fix.
It should be a concern to investors in the new GM that so much emphasis is being put on the new Chevy Volt. Shareholders should expect a clear path to profitability, not a PR campaign with political undertones that imply that GM is taking the responsibility for saving the world from global warning by offering a vehicle that will not make a profit in the foreseeable future. Other concerns include questionable management, continued UAW overhangs, lack of captive financing, European/Opel losses and ineffective accounting controls. Most of these have been brought up here before, so we can move on to a review of one of the most egregious areas of past moral failings in the GM restructuring process.
Americans were deceived by General Motors and President Obama's Auto Task Force when the administration stated that the Task Force's goal was to restructure the auto industry outside of bankruptcy. In an effort to disguise this deceit, millions of taxpayer dollars were spent to devise an offering to GM bondholders for an exchange of debt for equity. Lawyer prepared a 200 page document that was mailed to hundreds of thousands of individual bondholders as part of the ruse. The offer required 90% acceptance by bondholders to avoid bankruptcy and terms like "it's in the bondholders' hands now" were used. Those close to the deal knew the offering was designed to fail, as it would be impossible to locate and get acceptance from 90% of bondholders even if the offer had been a fair one. The resulting acceptance number was never publicized and was estimated at less than 10%. The questionable aspects of this offer have never been criticized to now. In fact, the only investigation by Congress in to the unprecedented nationalization of the auto industry by the executive branch of government was headed by Elizabeth Warren, who President Obama recently described as a "dear friend"; this as she was rewarded a prominent position as head of a cabinet consumer advocacy group. It should not come as a surprise that the resultant report on the auto restructuring investigation did not uncover wrongdoing. This view had a dissenting stance from panel member, Rep. Jeb Hensarling.
Perhaps incoming chairman of the House Oversight Committee, Rep. Darrell Issa, will question the events and reopen a discussion on whether or not America believes the new GM bankruptcy template should be used in the future. At this point, additional areas of concern that warrant probing are: taxpayer funded subsidies for GM in the form of a $7500 federal tax credit for Chevy Volt sales, a $45 billion tax loss carryover benefit granted to GM, continued government sponsored help to GM and Chrysler in the form of a "backdoor" bailout provided through funding by government owned Ally Financial and, lastly, accounting questions regarding GM's reporting. The financial reporting issue revolves around GM's revenue recognition and balance sheet when they offered shares to the public after admitting they have ineffective internal controls. If these accounting issues lead to a new group of investors being hurt by General Motors, many involved will have tough questions to answer. One of which will be, "was this process really so great for America?"
I have no sympathy for these new investors. None. If they don't know that they are benefiting from the massive violation of contract law and the theft from previous bondholders, then they are so massively stupid that they are bound to be ripped off by their good friend in Nigeria who wants their help in moving unclaimed funds through their bank accounts. Some people are just destined to lose what little they accumulate.
Anyone corrupt enough to buy into GM after the Bailout deserves what happens. The process was VERY bad for America, and my only wish is that those involved, including those who want to make a profit today by picking over the carcass of the company, will lose everything they put into it after 2008.
Wait, isn’t there a group of investors who got thrown out the door in the Govt buyout? And now they’re turning around and doing an IPO?
Am I missing something?
Additionally, GM has a history of making lousy cars. its going to be hard to remain viable if your building junk.
By the way, they have lost some of their best design people over the last 5 years so I don’t expect them to make better cars any time soon.
Um, it closed close to its IPO price ($33.11 vs IPO of $33.00) on the second day of trading (Friday). The only reason it didn’t fall below $33 is some late buying. My hunch: Some TARP or other obama slush fund money was used to prop it up.
The stock is already a dog IMHO. Successful IPO? Only in delusional LSM and DC world, where there is no inflation right now, either.
PS This is NOT investment advice, just my opinion.
What investors, I’m sure most of the buys were 0 interest loans made to buyers by the fed. No one in their right mind would by SH=T from GM.
The government should have bought Ford. I made a killing at the same time they were taking a 25% hit. I guess we were all taking a 25% hit.
Exactly, and there’ll be many more.
You’re not missing a thing.
"Don't touch their junk!"
Not only that but if they’re relying on the Volt to get them out of this they’re in for a big surprise. IMO it’ll be another Edsel.
This was a classic pump & dump.
Those who bought in at 33, sold at 34, walked away with a pile of cash. The shares tanked early friday at $33.16 and the Fed bought a pile of shares to drive the price back up to $34.26.
$12 is likely soon.
Yep Bond holders got screwed on the bailout and they are supposed to be the first that get their money in situations like GM’s.
GM will be back to their old problems soon enough, only this time they won’t be able to blame Bush.
I was wondering how much R&D could have been taking place since this debacle started. Not much, I guess.
Also, I can't wait 'til contract time when there'll be UAW goons on both sides of the table.
GM went out of business for two reasons:
1. They built lousy cars .
2. And, even they could sell them, there was no way they could make a profit because their union contract wouldn't allow them to do so.
What has changed...???
Well... now, half the country hates them.
That's what I think too. This whole thing is little more than money laundering to make obama look good.
So, what does the new GM look like? A few nuggets from the registration statement:
33 percent of its sales come from North America;
44.5 percent come from Asia-Pacific, South America, Russia, Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East, including a market-leading position in China;
43% of its vehicles are manufactured in regions of the world where the “all-in” labor cost is under $15 an hour;
Its U.S. pension plans remain underfunded by about $17.1 billion.
Here’s wishing the new GM success.
I think GM’s biggest problem in the past was that the accountants served as the design arm.
On top of everything else bad about the Volt, it is only a 4 passenger car. That is going to limit a huge amount of potential buyers if there were any in the first place.
A friend of mine lost a significant part of his retirement nest egg thanks to Obama favoring the unions over the bond-holders in the original government takeover.
The Obama Administration will never be able to persuade me that there is any cause to rejoice in anything that GM has done since that takeover.
GM’s IPO = Government Motors’ Idiotic Progressive Offering...Inane Propagandists Obfuscation.
Pay-it-forward nonsense on a poisoned business plan.
I looked at the market in Europe and it quoted GM at .23 down 32.77 the 1st day. I can’t understand this. The next day after the ‘’huge’’ success of the IPO,it still was quoted at .23 down 32.77,,,I still don’t get it.