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Rothenberg’s End of the Year Awards for 2010
Roll Call ^ | December 6, 2010 | Stuart Rothenberg

Posted on 12/10/2010 5:21:12 AM PST by Clintonfatigued

Every year, I look back and nominate a number of politicians, campaigns and politically related entities as the “best,” “worst” or even “weirdest” of the cycle. I’m doing it again this year, because — let’s be honest — it’s a way of combining political analysis with personal animosity.

(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 12/10/2010 5:21:15 AM PST by Clintonfatigued
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To: fieldmarshaldj; randita; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; Norman Bates; LdSentinal; ExTexasRedhead; ...

Better Start Worrying About 2012 Already

• Rep.-elect Blake Farenthold (R-Texas)

• Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.)

• Rep-elect Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio)

• Rep.-elect Charlie Bass (R-N.H.)

• Rep.-elect Tom Marino (R-Pa.)

Farenthold and Bass are in tough districts, and they are likely to draw serious opponents next year. Gibbs and Kissell ran unimpressive races. Gibbs caught the wave (but may get help from redistricting), while Kissell had a weak opponent. That leaves Marino, who shouldn’t take his re-election for granted, even in this very Republican district. Even Republicans acknowledge that he is so damaged that he probably will draw a credible primary opponent.


2 posted on 12/10/2010 5:22:53 AM PST by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Farenthold would probably be set if he had a Hispanic surname. As it is, the district has Cook PVI of R+2 and Obama skewed that winning by 7 points in 2008. Bush won by 10 points in 2004, so it seems like a classic swing district. Will that district be affected by redistricting?

NC-08 is also one of those districts that favored Bush both times by 7 and 9 points respectively, but went for Obama by 5. A lot of districts like this went GOP this year Kissell escaped as did Schuler and McIntyre (which are both in slightly stronger leaning R districts than NC-08). Those three will definitely be in the top tier of GOP targets in 2012. Pantano seemed like a credible opponent to McIntyre and is considering another run.

Bass does have a tough district (PVI D+3) and barely squeaked by. His opponent this year, Ann Kuster, is considering another run.

PA-10 is a strong R district so should stay R unless Marino stinks the place up and voters shift again like they did after Sherwood. Politicians in NE PA are notoriously crooked as you know. Marino did not set the world on fire with his fundraising.


3 posted on 12/10/2010 6:00:49 AM PST by randita
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To: Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; randita; Norman Bates; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy; Crichton; ...

Well if Marino has a primary challenger who would be a superior choice we should back that person.

Ditto for small mouth Bass. (and anyone else who is a RINO or damaged enough to hurt his GE chances)

Kissell and few of his NC buddies should be hurt by redistricting (rat guv can’t veto!). Farenthold should be helped a little.

Chip Craavick is also in danger. Cook or somebody put him at the top of the list, ignoring the GOP trend in that district, Obama/Kerry only got 53% there. GOP leg controls redistricting, illegitimate rat Governor Dayton can veto. MN may or may not lose a seat.


4 posted on 12/10/2010 6:07:22 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: randita

TX can help Farenthold but they’ll have to be careful not to reduce the Hispanic % too much and risk judicial alternation.


5 posted on 12/10/2010 6:11:51 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Clintonfatigued
Gibbs caught the wave (but may get help from redistricting),

With Ohio (probably) losing two seats it's going to be tough keeping all 13 Republicans. Current delegation is 13 R - 5 D.

Gibbs will probably have an easier time than Bill Johnson as Gibbs holds the old Bob Nye seat and Johnson holds the Strickland/Wilson seat.

6 posted on 12/10/2010 6:16:18 AM PST by NeoCaveman (Touch my tagline and I'll have you arrested)
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To: Clintonfatigued
That's a stupid list.

For one thing, there are at LEAST 50 reps who should already be worried about 2012.

For another, redistricting will have a huge impact on who's likely to get knocked off. Heath Shuler and Brad Miller could easily be written out depending on the plan chosen; at least as good a chance as Kissell.

There's no reason for Gibbs to be particularly vulnerable. Marino won his race handily despite no money and negative publicity. Bass's district is competitive but not particularly tough.

7 posted on 12/10/2010 6:17:52 AM PST by Crichton
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To: Clintonfatigued

CF, Do you think that California’s new nonpartisan redistrciting board might open things up for some pick ups out there?

It can’t be any worse than their current gerrymander.


8 posted on 12/10/2010 6:19:02 AM PST by NeoCaveman (Touch my tagline and I'll have you arrested)
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To: NeoCaveman
Gibbs will probably have an easier time than Bill Johnson as Gibbs holds the old Bob Nye seat and Johnson holds the Strickland/Wilson seat.

Johnson was a much better candidate, and I anticipate will be a stronger Congressman.

If the two are paired in one district (not sure if that is likely) Gibbs could win a primary, but I'd back Johnson for sure.

9 posted on 12/10/2010 6:22:16 AM PST by Crichton
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To: NeoCaveman; calcowgirl

I think it will lead to a small net gain. It could leave a few GOP incumbents in tight spots as well though.


10 posted on 12/10/2010 6:27:08 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Crichton
If the two are paired in one district (not sure if that is likely) Gibbs could win a primary, but I'd back Johnson for sure.

It's only somewhat likely, as the two districts are contiguous and neither is growing. Johnson's biggest problem is geographic he's at the most northern point of those districts.

I figure they'll take the 3 Cleveland are districts (Kucinich, Fudge, and Sutton) and consolidate them down to two in which case Sutton would be the odd woman out. As to the other consolidation in redistricting.

11 posted on 12/10/2010 6:32:39 AM PST by NeoCaveman (Touch my tagline and I'll have you arrested)
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To: Crichton

Johnson is the kind of citizen legislator the Tea Party crowd and independents support. Ditto with Cravaack. People are sick of the slick packaged-talking out of both sides of their mouths political hacks and they just want people who are real and who tell it like it is.

We got a lot of those type of people this time around. Hopefully they won’t be corrupted by the D.C. water and will stay real.

The Democrat faithful still haven’t caught on to this. They’re still voting for the lifetime career hacks who sell out their principles (if they ever had any to begin with) when they get inside the beltway.


12 posted on 12/10/2010 7:04:25 AM PST by randita
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To: Clintonfatigued; randita; Impy; darkangel82; AuH2ORepublican; LS; Crichton; BillyBoy; Clemenza

It’s difficult to ascertain (at least at the moment) those most in danger before we see what the lines are for 2012. Undoubtedly, we probably will lose some of the Class of ‘10, of course (and just as undoubtedly, some Democrats that escaped the tide due to whatever reason may also similarly find themselves in trouble — see NC below)...

Farenthold is one of the big concerns, but Hispanic districts in TX haven’t been above electing Whites (such as Gene Green or Lloyd Doggett), he just needs to be very vigilant and work on improving his standing in the southernmost end of that district where he performed weakest (either that, or removing the area below Corpus Christi and giving that to the 15th (Ruben Hinojosa) while removing the north part of that district and giving it to Farenthold).

As for Kissell and the other NC Democrats, they’re all endangered (save for Watt & Butterfield) for 2012 when the GOP finally gets to draw the lines. It’s truly odd that only Etheridge lost (and that, probably solely due to his assault on the college student, otherwise he’d probably have survived). It reminds me of 1920, when NC didn’t elect any Republicans despite the national tide (and sweeps even in neighboring TN and VA), yet they finally cracked by 1928.

The GOP legislators in OH will have to probably sacrifice a seat or two of ours for redistricting. They did virtually nothing for 2002 when they had control (since then-Gov. Taft was apparently terrified about potentially removing then-Rep. Sherrod Brown and having him run against him instead), effectively preserving the ‘90s lines. Fudge is protected by the VRA, but I would try to corral as many Dem voters into the remaining 5 seats (putting Fudge and Kucinich in one seat would be nice) and get them down to 4 if possible.

Bass is, of course, a relatively weak member, but barring a repeat of 2006, I don’t necessarily see it as a given his losing in 2012. He, of course, is the first of his family to make a successful comeback in NH.

Can’t comment much about Marino, but it was more a fluke than anything else that Democrat Carney had the seat at all. It took Don Sherwood’s choking his mistress to finally see us lose the seat.

Chip Cravaack in MN-8 is a concern, too, but for an unusual reason, that of geography. He hails from the extreme southernmost part of the district (indeed, he’s just a short drive from his home in Lindstrom, Chisago County to Michele Bachmann’s home in Stillwater, just a county away) and the folks up in the Northern Range (Duluth, et al) may want one of their own as opposed to someone effectively from the Minny/St. Paul ‘burbs. My advice to Cravaack ? He might literally benefit relocating north to the Duluth area.


13 posted on 12/10/2010 9:52:39 AM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; randita; Impy; darkangel82; LS; Crichton; BillyBoy; Clemenza

There shouldn’t be more than four Democrat seats in OH. The OH-09 should go from Toledo to Northern Lorain (which would have happened had Brown not scared Taft into drawing a safely Dem OH-13 with Northern Lorain and part of Akron); the OH-10 should include white parts of Cleveland, its white Dem suburbs and heavily Dem parts of Lake County; the black-majority OH-11 should include black parts of Cleveland, its black suburbs, and squirrel down to pick up black parts of Akron; and the OH-17 (which will need to be renumbered; I’d call it the OH-13, since the old OH-13 would be eliminated) would go from Dem parts of the Youngstown and Warren area to white parts of Akron and take in Canton as well. The biggest problem in the NE corner of the state is shoring up the Republican OH-14, which would need to gain quite a bit of population (particularly if heavily Dem parts of Lake are excised) despite being boxed in with Democrats all around (and with both the OH-11 and OH-17 needing land bridges to Akron); the way around it is to connect Youngstown to Akron via Alliance, Canton and Massillon in Stark County and include GOP parts of NE Stark County in the OH-14.

There is no need to draw a Dem CD in the rest of the state. The OH-01 can be shored up by giving it Warren County precincts currently in the and having the OH-02 take in white-majority Dem or marginal precincts (splitting up the black pop in Cinci could create unnecessary problems); the Dem-trending Columbus districts could be shored up by (i) adding Morrow County and the rest of Licking County to the OH-12 (and decreasing its Columbus precincts), (ii) adding Logan, Auglaize and Shelby Counties to the OH-15 (and decreasing its Columbus precincts), and (iii) excising Clark, Ross and Perry Counties from the OH-07 and adding all of those Columbus precincts that used to be in OH-12 and OH-15 (the OH-07 already had a bit of Columbus; it could have a lot more and still have voted 56% or so for Bush in 2005). This would necessitate eliminating Jim Jordan’s OH-04, which is not such a bad thing because he will likely run for the Senate against Sherrod Brown in 2012; since one GOP district has to be eliminated (OH will lose two seats), it might as well be the one of the guy running for the Senate and whose GOP counties will help shore up surrounding districts.


14 posted on 12/10/2010 11:23:34 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican

Given the number of Republican-dominated statehouses and governorships, it’s way too early for the Dems to be licking their chops. If anything, they may end up starting out further back then the numbers they got in 2010. Here’s some examples I’ve been thinking of.

Indiana: Republicans now have big majorities in both chambers, and Mitch Daniels has the pen. Can you say “Bye bye, Joe Donnelly?” Scratch one for the Dems.

Pennsylvania: I’d say either Jason Altmire or Mark Critz gets the ax. If the Republicans are smart, they won’t go overboard and try and gerrymander out too many Dems. Their current map didn’t work out as well as they planned. Exhibit A is Jim Gerlach having to keep outvoting the Montgomery County portions of his district.

North Carolina: Kissell, McIntyre, Miller and Shuler could be on the chopping block. Whether they want to go for Price is another matter. It might be better to keep a Chatham-Durham based district to keep the college dominated precincts out of the adjoining areas.

Michigan: I hear Michigan may lose a seat, and since the GOP has control, it may as well be Gary Peters. Swap out some more GOP-friendly precincts to McCotter, and give the Dem areas to Sander Levin.

Wisconsin: I don’t think the GOP can really do anything to weaken Ron Kind, perhaps not without harming Sean Duffy. Kind barely survived anyway, so he may lose next time without redistricting.

Georgia: Will the GOP go after John Barrow? Georgia is looking to gain a seat, but maybe they’ll try for a two-fer?

Iowa: Iowa is slated to lose a seat, and you have three Dems versus two GOP. I doubt Steve King or Tom Latham will lose. Perhaps Boswell will finally retire.

Oklahoma: Kind of iffy. Dan Boren is the last Dem standing, but could the GOP-led government really weaken him?

Massachusetts: Slated to lose a seat, and ALL the reps are Dem.

Texas: I don’t know of any vulnerable Dems that are left. Lloyd Doggett maybe, but the last effort to get rid of him backfired. Texas is supposed to gain seats, but will they necessarily be all Republican?


15 posted on 12/10/2010 12:15:52 PM PST by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief (Our Joe Wilson can take the Dems' Joe Wilson any day of the week)
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To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; BillyBoy; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; Impy

IN: Yeah, though Donnelly shouldn’t have won this time. The Libertarian was solely responsible for depriving Jackie Walorski of a win (much how Bob Barr was responsible for giving the state to Zero). We should also try to target Andre X for defeat. Unpacking a decent chunk of Dan Burton’s hyper-GOP district could accomplish that.

PA: Critz would probably be the best seat to eliminate. The GOP actually drew that contorted mess to keep Murtha (before his ugliness exploded full-tilt). The rest should be as shored-up for the incumbents as possible. I wish we could find a way to displace Tim Holden. That seat should not be sending a Democrat.

MI: It’s too bad we can’t merge the districts of Detroit (Conyers and Rep-elect Hansen Clarke) into one (given the plunging population). We should target (besides Gary Peters) the seats of Dingell and Dale Kildee (who is in his early 80s now and won by just 53% in November).

WI: As for Ron Kind, I think there is some expectation he may run for Herb Kohl’s seat if he retires, so that should be a pick-up for us if Dan Kapanke runs again, who lost by just less than 4%.

GA: No reason why we shouldn’t target both John Barrow and Sanford Bishop and get a 10-3 delegation. Bishop has moved way too far to the left for his district (but we probably should run a Black Republican).

IA: I believe an independent commission draws the lines, so whomever is thrown in together is up in the air. However, since Steve King represents the largest westernmost 5th, it would be hard for him to lose. Boswell’s 3rd, being in the center of the state, would be the easiest to redistribute between the current 1st, 2nd and 4th.

OK: I don’t know if we could really drastically reconfigure Boren’s seat that wouldn’t end up causing the other members to complain. I’d think it might be better to persuade Boren to switch parties. Clearly, he’s closer ideologically to our side than the Pelosi wing.

MA: Well, now that we failed to win jacksquat, no worries about which of the freshmen would get the axe. I still think the easiest option (without offending the Boston-area members) is to merge the western 1st and 2nd, forcing the senile John Olver out. Richard Neal actually had a relatively close call (57-43%) in a district that hasn’t elected a Republican Congressman since 1946. Maybe Sean Bielat can move to the former 10th and run rather than waste his time against the execrable Frank.

TX: I expect the VRA may see the legislature forced to give some of those seats to Hispanic Democrats, although as AuH2o has demonstrated, if the GOP was smart, they could find a way to draw the lines to increase Hispanic GOP members instead, which we will need for the long run.


16 posted on 12/10/2010 1:17:59 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Can you be more specific?/s

That being said, it’s possible that Bob Gibbs and Bill Johnson will see their districts combined.


17 posted on 12/10/2010 3:39:10 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

California- Democrats in the legislature won’t control the process. If nothing else, Schwarzenegger deserves thanks for achieving that with Prop 20. It’s possible that the state will lose a seat. Until the census happens, anything is possible.

Colorado- doesn’t this state gain a seat? If so, it’s an opportunity. I’d say write off defeating Ed Perlmutter, who’s just too tough. Is it possible to create a new suburban district that Ryan Frazier can win? He’s be a celebrity, but I’m sure a lot of local state legislators are interested, also.

Florida- this state will gain 2-4 seats. There will be a lot of leeway here and I look forward to it. Perhaps you can elaborate on it.

IL- this could be a problem. A big problem. That jerk Phil Hare wants to come back to Congress and is counting on his former colleagues in the state legislature to make it happen. He was defeated in a convoluted district, but a number of freshman Republicans are in danger.

Indiana- Joe Donnelly’s win was a dissapointment. It wouldn’t take much to make the district more conservative. Any territory to the east or south would do it. Would Donnelly run for statewide office? Also, Larry Bouchon and Todd Young may need more compact districts.

Louisiana- this may lose a seat, probably a Republican one. Jeff Landry is in the most danger, it seems.

For my outlook on Ohio, check Posting #16.

Pennsylvania- perhaps Tom Marino can be primaried. He rode the wave, but his own party has doubts about him. It’s too bad he won the primary. In addition, there will be a lot of leeway in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Tennessee- Boy, oh, boy, there is so, so much that Republicans can do with this map. This is an opportunity for payback after 20 years of being screwed by the legislatative ‘Rats.


18 posted on 12/10/2010 3:57:34 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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To: Impy

Charles Bass’s close margin has nothing to do with ideology or longevity. He was accused of a shady stock deal. Also, his opponent spent a ton of money. Will that charge stick or will it be yesterday’s news in 2012? Your guess is as good as mine.


19 posted on 12/10/2010 4:02:07 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; BillyBoy; Clintonfatigued; Impy

DJ, I used to be the president of the “Split Indianapolis and Its Close-In Suburbs Into Two GOP CDs” fan club. However, the 2008 results made me realize that not only could it result in both Indianapolis CDs going Democrat in a good Democrat year, but we would have used up all of the GOP suburbs that we need to shore up the IN-08, IN-09 and IN-06 (the latter isn’t as safely Republican as Pence makes it look; keeping Madison and Delaware Counties together is an invitation to disater), plus heavily Dem Bloomington would have to go to either the IN-08 or IN-09, keeping them competitive. So what I would do is draw a ridiculously Democrat IN-07 (Obama would have gotten around 75% in 2008) that combines Dem parts of Indianapolis with Bloomington and other Dem parts of Monroe County through a narrow strip of Morgan County.

Similarly, I would draw a hyper-Democrat IN-01 (also 75%+ for Obama in 2008) from northern Lake County throgh lakefront parts of Porter County through Michigan City and other Dem parts of LaPorte County to South Bend and other Dem parts of St. Joseph County. After that, it would be almost impossible *not* to draw a heavily GOP IN-02 in which Donnelley would have no chance of winning.

I would take 7 CDs in which the Dems can’t possibly win and 2 safely Dem CDs out of a state that Obama carried and in which Dems have had a 4-3 advantage in the congressional delegation for the past four years.

BTW, I just looked into whether it would be possible to split Indianapolis into three GOP-leaning districts. The three Indianapolis CDs would have given McCain a combined 50% or so of the vote in 2008. Plus, putting all of the most heavily GOP counties into the three Indianapolis CDs to try to counterweigh heavily Dem Indianapolis would leave IN-06, IN-08 and IN-09 very vulnerable and not even IN-02 (as redrawn after making the IN-01 hyper-Democrat) and IN-03 would be completely safe. It just wouldn’t be worth the risk—give the Dems IN-07 and let’s enjoy a 7-2 advantage for at least the next decade.


20 posted on 12/10/2010 4:22:30 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Yes, that would be the easiest call, since they’re both freshmen, but it would make it much more difficult to come up with a 12-4 GOP map.


21 posted on 12/10/2010 4:25:11 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Clintonfatigued; BillyBoy; Dengar01; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; Impy; darkangel82; ...

CA: I’m not sure if they’ll lose a seat (other prognosticators seem unsure as well). It’s clear the Dems are overrepresented (one source said they got 45% of the vote this time, but only 35% or so of the seats. Indeed, we didn’t win a single Dem seat, though I suspect fraud may have cost us at least 2 or 3, the Vidak & Harmer races at minimum). But what will this redistricting board truly do ? My worry is we end up new, weak RINOs (think Abel Maldonado) while the Dems are free to continue to move as hard-Stalinist as can be in their urban nutter districts. Less than useless.

CO: No, the state will not gain a seat. I suspect the lines may end up status quo, especially in the absence of a GOP Governor. At best, we still should’ve gotten a 5R-2D deal out of it in the past decade.

FL: One source I saw said it will only gain 1 seat, and that may have to go for a Hispanic seat in the Orlando area (whether we can make it GOP is another question — as of now, no Hispanic Democrat has yet to be elected to federal office in FL, a record I hope remains intact for years to come).

IL: Yeah, this is one where we could get screwed quite badly. However, since we know in IL that state politics aren’t Dem vs. GOP but Combiner vs. anti-Combiner, you could see some backroom deals made. I can’t imagine Phil Hare making a comeback, since he was simply a very damaged candidate and unsound individual. Chopping up the current seat may be more likely. One source said Bob Dold’s 10th may also be an obvious top target for elimination or drastic reconfiguration (of course, if Dold ends up a Kirk clone, I won’t shed a tear), and Roskam may also find his seat made more Dem.

IN: If Donnelly sees his seat made GOP enough to not bother to run, he could conceivably take a shot at running for the Senate (and I expect Lugar to lose in an ugly primary, which would be Donnelly’s only shot). One source said that it is possible to merge the districts of Andre X and Pete Visclosky’s into one for a real contorted Gary-to-Indy seat, which would be majority Black (and favor Andre). If we can get an 8R-1D delegation, why not give it a shot ?

LA: Landry, yes. He seems the most endangered. But a big question begs what the “new” district will look like in having to augment NOLA’s 2nd up towards Baton Rouge. If more Whites are placed into it, Cedric Richmond could have a potential contest. If not, it will make the current 6th with Bill Cassidy a safe GOP seat by removing enough offending Democrats. Might be a better idea, anyway.

TN: Well, now that we scored such incredible gains in my state in one shot, the redrawing almost seems like an afterthought (it also showed how tenuous the hold was for the Democrats up to this point, using a combination of gerrymandering and power of incumbency, added with a dash of weak GOP nobodies that we often threw up against the former incumbents). I’d love to see us squeeze out an 8R-1D delegation (giving me a Republican member for the first time in my lifetime, and indeed since the 1872 elections), but that could be problematic.

Districts 1-4 merely should be straightened out a bit and more contiguous as they were prior to the 1970s when fearful Dems saw what was going to happen before long. 6, 7 & 8 need to also be made a bit more contiguous. The 7th has rather superceded the 4th in its grotesqueness. The western end (East Memphis) needs to be chopped off and placed into the 8th where the folks there will be much happier having a West Tennessean rather than Nashvillian as their member. With that done (and the 9th can’t be touched, although I’d make it more Black and give as many of the remaining GOP areas to the 8th), we could decide on whether to take the risk on attempting to slice Nashville in sections to place in the 6th and 7th while creating a new 5th.

I suggested the incoming Speaker Beth Harwell as a possible candidate for a reconfigured 5th (indeed, by taking out certain Dem sections of Nashville and placing them into the 6th & 7th where they’d be outvoted by suburbanites, the moderate Harwell could be positioned to defeat Jim Cooper, and as a first-tier candidate, she’d get a higher % of the Dem & Indy vote along with at least a 40% bedrock GOP vote). A swing of 10% against Cooper could win her the race even under the current lines, and a nobody had the nomination against him this year. However, she’d probably prefer the Speakership to being a newbie backbencher in DC.

SC: Also not mentioned is that it may indeed get its 7th seat for the first time in 80 years, but while one source said the GOP might try to draw a 6th GOP seat, I think that given the demographics of the state, the VRA would require a 2nd majority Black seat (most likely coming out of a good chunk of the existing 5th and and 2nd districts centered on Columbia, which would have the positive effect of making those hyper-GOP, while the problematic parts of Charleston in the 1st would then go into Clyburn’s 6th). Other than that, I don’t know how we could draw a sixth GOP seat without potentially endangering at least 3 of our current incumbents with already uncomfortably high Black (Dem) percentages. A bad anti-GOP backlash year could turn our 5R-1D majority into a 4D-3R (or 2R) one. It almost ended up even split in 2008 when we nearly lost the 1st.

WA: Also not mentioned, they appear to gain a 10th seat, though I believe an independent commission draws the lines there (?) That may go to King County (hence Dem), but would shore up Dave Reichert’s iffy seat.

MO: It is apparently just on the line of dropping a seat, but one of the 3 remaining Dems is likely to get the axe. If they leave St. Louis alone, the 4th and 5th/6th would be combined out in KC, and now with Skelton gone, Emanuel Cleaver would be finished as he has better than a 40% bloc in that seat already opposed to him (frankly, even if they leave it alone, it will still have to be augmented, and that favors us before long, for which I’m sure the late Dick Bolling is spinning in his grave at the thought of). The biggest pop decline is in the Clay legacy seat, and that will have to be shored up at the expense of Rusty Carnahan’s 3rd (apparently at the rate the 1st is going, it won’t be majority minority much longer). Ultimately, the 1st and 3rd may have to be merged into one, which should be interesting to see if Carnahan decides to run against Clay in a primary. Carnahan can’t afford to have any Dem sections removed without ending his House career (as he only barely held on by a few thousand votes or so last month). In any event, it will be nice to see one (or more) of that obnoxious troika excised from Congress.

NV: Not mentioned, but it will gain a seat, and that will almost automatically be in Clark County. The “prediction” is the Dem leg will try to make it a 2nd Dem seat (which would make Heck’s district safe GOP, provided they don’t try to slice and dice it), however, it strikes me that LV sometimes has a low voter turnout (note the 1st district), and it might not necessarily equate to a Dem seat, especially if it is a high Hispanic % (due to all the service industry employers). The Dems similarly tried to do precisely that in creating the 3rd district in 2002, and it blew up in their faces (indeed, it would only go Dem once for 2008, and right back to us again in ‘10).

UT: Which also will gain its overdue 4th seat in 2012. The big question is whether the GOP will try to rid itself of the pesky Jim Matheson, but attempts have failed so far. It may be better to draw us 3 seats out of the heavy GOP areas outside of SLC proper and give Matheson a SLC-based seat that could be winnable for us once he vacates it. He already has a huge chunk of the state with his current seat representing an area that has no business sending any Democrat to DC.


22 posted on 12/10/2010 5:25:04 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; randita

In PA Barlettla could use some shoring up, that could complicate efforts to get rid of Holden, who already sits in a GOP-leaning seat.


23 posted on 12/12/2010 4:00:15 PM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; randita; Clintonfatigued; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief

I vote for the 7-2 plan for Indiana. Burton ain’t so popular anymore, he could get upset in a less Republican seat.

I’d rather lock down 7 and pack as many rats as possible in the other 2. The 8th and 9th can be made safe.


24 posted on 12/12/2010 4:08:14 PM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy; Clintonfatigued

The seat Burton occupies is hyper-GOP, but Burton has declined in popularity partly because he’s seen as having been in DC too long and has gotten bored (I believe one FReeper said he’s more interested in his golf game than his job). He actually was nearly beaten in the primary this year, only lucking out because there is no runoff and 6 candidates ran against him. He just edged out Former State Rep. Luke Messer by a 30-28% margin. Had that gone to a runoff, Messer clearly would’ve won. (Back in ‘08, Burton only won renomination by a 52-45% margin over Marion County Coroner, Dr. John McGoff — McGoff insisted on running again this year and placed 3rd with 19%, so you can see that 70% of the voters were anti-Burton). Unless he “bounces back” to distinguish himself again in the next Congress, he probably ought to retire in 2012 after 30 years.


25 posted on 12/12/2010 5:20:31 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: Impy

I live in PA-15, just south of Barletta’s district. PA-15 on the whole hasn’t been hit that hard by the recession. Housing prices have held their value pretty well and unemployment not too bad compared to the state or national average, but PA-11 has been hit pretty hard. That district was no doubt expecting a lot of the hopey-changey stuff that never quite happened for them (or for anyone, actually). Kanjorski took the brunt of the disappointment and anger.

If the housing market stabilizes and the economy starts to turn around a bit, Barletta could benefit. If things stay bad up in PA-11, Barletta will have a tough slog, IMO..

Holden’s district is just to the west of mine and has a large swath of Amish/Mennonite/conservative Christian towns and rural areas in it and if they threw some of those up to Barletta, the majority of PA-17 would be around the city of Harrisburg. Those Rat state employees would give Holden even more of a lock. Harrisburg’s been teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and Rendell’s been propping it up.

But if Corbett goes in there swinging an axe, like it’s necessary to do, Holden might be able to play the good guy and benefit.


26 posted on 12/12/2010 5:38:50 PM PST by randita
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To: Impy

Barletta won a district drawn for a Democrat, and all of the neighboring and close-by districts need shoring up. I think that the PA-11 should be made *more* Democrat, with Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and its Dem surroundings being combined with Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton through Dem parts of Monroe County. Columbia County, most of Carbon County and Barletta’s home base around Hazleton would be excised from the PA-11 and combined with part of Holden’s CD (and maybe some GOP counties further west) for a district that should favor Barletta, if only because of its GOP advantage.


27 posted on 12/12/2010 8:28:54 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Impy

Barletta won a district drawn for a Democrat, and all of the neighboring and close-by districts need shoring up. I think that the PA-11 should be made *more* Democrat, with Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and its Dem surroundings being combined with Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton through Dem parts of Monroe County. Columbia County, most of Carbon County and Barletta’s home base around Hazleton would be excised from the PA-11 and combined with part of Holden’s CD (and maybe some GOP counties further west) for a district that should favor Barletta, if only because of its GOP advantage.


28 posted on 12/12/2010 8:29:11 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Impy

Absolutely, the IN-08 and IN-09 can be made safe if (i) Bloomington isn’t in either one and (ii) heavily GOP Indianapolis suburban counties are added to tbe districts. Neither one of those conditions would be present if Republicans tried to draw an 8-1 map. Plus, an 8-1 map would not allow the IN-06 to be shored up (which should be done, since Pence will probably not run for reelection in 2012 in order to seek higher office).


29 posted on 12/12/2010 8:34:43 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

IN-06 was also the seat of Watergate baby Phil Sharp, who held the seat until he retired in 1994. He was so entrenched that not even the pro-GOP gerrymander in 1982 could get rid of him. In fact, Pence ran against Sharp at least twice and couldn’t dislodge him.


30 posted on 12/12/2010 8:57:44 PM PST by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief (Our Joe Wilson can take the Dems' Joe Wilson any day of the week)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Where does Charlie Dent’s district (the 15th) fit in with your ideas for making PA-11 more Dem and PA-17 more GOP?

Dent has been able to win and easily hold PA-15 which is a slight Dem leaning district, although not as Dem as PA-11.


31 posted on 12/14/2010 7:50:07 PM PST by randita
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To: randita

Had Mayor Callahan, Dent’s 2010 opponent, run in 2006 or 2008, Dent would be an ex-Congressman right now. A historically Dem district carried by Kerry such as the PA-15 will eventually fall, and the surrounding area isn’t Republican enough to shore it up without excising Allentown and Bethlehem (and Easton while you’re at it), especially if you want to keep the PA-08 and PA-06 Republican. So the GOP and marginal parts of Lehigh and Northampton Counties can be combined with part of Schuylkill and Montgomery Counties to become a much more Republican PA-15. And if the “pro-choice” Dent is defeated in the primary, I won’t shed any tears.


32 posted on 12/14/2010 9:19:09 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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