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Obama OK in 2012?
National Review Online ^ | 12/27/2010 | Michael Barone

Posted on 12/27/2010 5:52:19 AM PST by StatenIsland

On the day after Boxing Day, it’s worth noting that Barack Obama is down but not out.

You could tell as much from the contrast between his petulant post-election press conference and his peppy pre-Christmas press conference. In the former, he was crabby about accepting Republicans’ demands that income-tax rates on all taxpayers not be raised. In the latter, he was celebrating the lame-duck Congress’s acceptance of his stands on the New START treaty, repeal of don’t ask, don’t tell, and even the previously reviled tax deal.

Obama has obviously figured out that Americans prefer to see their president describe the glass as half full rather than half empty. That’s a good lesson for him, and for Republicans, as well — especially those who believe that the Obama Democrats’ shellacking in the midterms means that Obama himself will definitely lose in 2012.

History should provide some caution for these folks. Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush saw their parties fare pretty well in their midterm elections. But they were nonetheless defeated in their reelection bids.

In contrast, pundits thought that Ronald Reagan’s Republicans took a shellacking in 1982 (actually, about half their losses resulted from redistricting), and Bill Clinton’s Democrats definitely did in 1994. But both the 40th and 42nd presidents were resoundingly reelected, carrying 49 and 31 states.

Several factors will likely work less strongly against Obama in 2012 than against the Obama Democrats in 2010. Turnout will be different, for one thing. We may see again the record turnout of blacks we saw in 2008. Young people who pretty much shunned the polls in the midterms may turn out and vote — though the 34-point margin they gave to Obama was halved to 17 points for congressional Democrats in 2010.

The balance of enthusiasm favored Republicans and conservatives in 2010, as it had favored Democrats in 2006 and 2008. It could conceivably shift and favor the Democrats once again.

Another factor is that polls show that most Americans have favorable personal feelings toward the president. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both happened to have personal characteristics that people on the other side of the cultural divide absolutely loathed. Obama doesn’t.

His reliance on his teleprompter, his secret smoking, his irritability when not adored — these are pretty minor failings. People like his family and his obvious devotion to them. They don’t mind that he likes to get away and play golf or shoot hoops from time to time.

Then there is the powerful desire Americans have to see their presidents succeed. That worked for Bill Clinton in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2004. Polls and focus groups showed that voters in the middle of the political spectrum were ready to overlook their weaknesses and appreciated their strengths in those years. That could be the case with Obama in 2012.

Moreover, there will be a reluctance on the part of many voters, understandable in light of our history, to reject the first African-American president. I’m convinced — though I cannot prove — that Americans who feel this way far outnumber those few who cannot abide seeing a black man in the White House.

All of which does not mean that Obama is a sure winner. Polls suggest that if the election were held today he could lose to several possible Republican nominees who are much less well known and have weaknesses of their own. But they also suggest he could win.

Still, there are substantive issues working against Obama. Most Americans want to repeal Obamacare; he wants to keep it. Most voters rejected his vast expansion of the size and scope of government; he still thinks it’s a good idea.

Obama came to office with the assumption that economic distress would increase support for his policies to (in his words to Joe the Plumber) “spread the wealth around.” But the 2010 midterms make it about as clear as these things can be that voters reject such efforts.

American voters are not seething with envy over income inequality and are not convinced that we’ll all do better if the government takes away more of Bill Gates’s money. Obama, like the academics in whose neighborhoods he has always chosen to live, think they should be seething — and that, if the message is just delivered the right way, they can be convinced to do just that.

That’s a big difference on some fundamental issues. Enough to make the difference in 2012? Not clear.

TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: barone; bho2012; obama
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To: StatenIsland
Don’t see how ‘Bammy loses in 2012.

He has been the best thing for DC since the New Deal. More power has accrued to DC in 2 years of ‘Bammy...than in the previous 234 years put together. He has ‘gifted” away more of our treasure to his henchmen and supporter than all other presidents in history put together. That represents a reservoir of “goodwill” that will find absolutely NO major players in US or International powers on the other side of him in 2012.

Unless there is an absolutely unprecedented grass roots, highly motivated groundswell in Flyover Country that generates hereto for unseen numbers of voters AND the institutional corruption of the vote that characterizes many Red States suffering Blue representation is dealt with ahead of time, he will be insurmountable.

41 posted on 12/27/2010 7:11:50 AM PST by mo
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To: Le Chien Rouge

If you cant see what the last election just did to the rats party then you are clueless.

42 posted on 12/27/2010 7:12:22 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life is tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Westbrook

The number that are waking up grows every day and by 2012 that will be a majority of the voting populace.He’s done for 2012.

43 posted on 12/27/2010 7:39:05 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life is tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2


44 posted on 12/27/2010 7:40:51 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life is tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Westbrook

5. A parasite.

45 posted on 12/27/2010 7:54:18 AM PST by null and void (We are now in day 704 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: null and void; Notary Sojac; Kenny Bunk

> 5. A parasite.

Yes, and, as Kenny Bunk pointed out, the LBGTXYZ goonery.

46 posted on 12/27/2010 7:59:49 AM PST by Westbrook (Having children does not divide your love, it multiplies it.)
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To: StatenIsland

2012 bump for later..........

47 posted on 12/27/2010 7:59:58 AM PST by indthkr
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To: StatenIsland

Zero is a legless CHAMELEON! A belly crawling minion of dark design and malignant intent. A forked tongued miscreant, who speaks from both sides of his mouth simultaneously. He must be forced into the scrutiny of reavealing light so ALL can see the “Gollum” in him.

48 posted on 12/27/2010 8:01:35 AM PST by Birdsbane ("Onward through the fog!" ... Oat Willie)
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To: LibLieSlayer
Strange column from Barone. He is usually very astute. I don't think he comprehends the true loathing most of America have for this guy.

I don't care one way or the other about his family. I want him out of that office to save our nation.

49 posted on 12/27/2010 8:03:06 AM PST by Cincinatus (Omnia relinquit servare Rempublicam)
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To: Birdsbane
Don't hold back, tell us how you really feel!
50 posted on 12/27/2010 8:03:34 AM PST by null and void (We are now in day 704 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: null and void

“Don’t hold back, tell us how you really feel!”

Can’t happen without a whole lot of sinning on my part...

51 posted on 12/27/2010 8:08:30 AM PST by Birdsbane ("Onward through the fog!" ... Oat Willie)
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To: sergeantdave; Padams

Barone is in fact a rather level-headed analyst. I do suspect that his observation about Obama not being so widely disliked stems from his
inside-the-Beltway residence (as opposed to a binge from the bottle).
Thanks to Obama, Washington, D.C. is now America’s Boom Town. Stores and restaurants are mobbed, incomes are sky-high, and jobs are plentiful. The rest of America...not so much.

52 posted on 12/27/2010 8:10:26 AM PST by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: Birdsbane

Well put.


53 posted on 12/27/2010 8:11:50 AM PST by null and void (We are now in day 704 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: Cincinatus
The MSM is praising his lame duck session accomplishments and disregarding the fact that each so-called victory went against every poll that showed the majority of Americans opposed to the legislation. Those "victories" will be judged at the ballot box in 2012, not by the media in 2010.

If the Republican congress gets this economy jumpstarted again Obama will receive much of the credit and therefore be in a good postion for reelection. My perverse nature almost wishes the economy stalls in order to remove him from office. Many in the MSM are also overlooking his incompetence in foreign affairs. If Korea or Iran flares up, if terrorists attack or any one of a dozen other unpleasant things occur he will be toast in 2012. It's pretty bad when the only way to keep him from winning in 2012 is for our country to suffer.

54 posted on 12/27/2010 8:19:41 AM PST by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: nascarnation; reefdiver
Baraq’s only hope is a 3 way race.

I agree, but I think if will be Donald Trump playing the role of Ross Perot, not Huckabee. Donald is a polical outsider & successful businessman with loads of money to keep him in the race, just like Perot.

55 posted on 12/27/2010 8:21:58 AM PST by Jess79
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To: StatenIsland

Hopefully Obama KO’d in 2011.

56 posted on 12/27/2010 8:27:01 AM PST by wetgundog (" Extremism in the Defense of Liberty is no Vice")
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To: Jess79

Could be.

The obvious scenario for the Trumpster would likely be Palin as Republican candidate, and Donald as the establishment favorite.

Baraq’s hard core supporters might deliver him a win with that scenario. I think the votes would be split pretty evenly.

57 posted on 12/27/2010 8:29:53 AM PST by nascarnation
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To: StatenIsland

The biggest issue is still the lousy economy. In the last week, I discovered two long-time (local) businesses that I frequent are going out of business. My neighborhood is filled with empty storefronts. They’ve been empty for YEARS. Obama’s people keep saying he will begin to focus laser-like on the economy, but we’ve heard that for 2 years, to no effect. Instead, he works on handouts to unions, Obamacare, outreach to Muslims, DADT and START. I refuse to believe the American people will put up with another term from this ideologue.

58 posted on 12/27/2010 8:45:04 AM PST by PghBaldy (Like the Ft Hood Killer, James Earl Ray was just stressed when he killed MLK Jr.)
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To: StatenIsland

He could be caught in the act committing murder or drug dealing, and he’s STILL going to get 95% of the black vote.

59 posted on 12/27/2010 8:47:24 AM PST by traditional1 ("Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
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To: StatenIsland

LOL! This is just the lull before the storm. That eerie quiet before the onrushing gale engulfs your ship.

And we ain’t even begun to see what crabby looks like! And the whining? Everyone better make sure the batteries in their noise cancellation earmuffs are at full charge!

60 posted on 12/27/2010 9:02:53 AM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Made from the right stuff!)
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