Skip to comments.CNN Poll: Republicans want winner over ideology in 2012 (Huck 21%, Palin 19%)
Posted on 02/08/2011 10:34:48 AM PST by Rational Thought
"Republicans are divided on their choice for the GOP nominee in 2012, but they are united in their desire to see Obama ousted from the White House," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
The survey indicates that the race for the Republican nomination is still wide open, with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney all clustered at the top of the pack. Twenty-one percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say if Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and 2008 GOP presidential candidate, decides to run for the White House, they would be likely to support him for their party's presidential nomination, followed by Palin, the former Alaska governor & 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, at 19 percent, and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and 2008 Republican presidential contender, at 18 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
PDF of the poll here;
Huck is NOT a winner.
Palin IS a winner.
We do want to win, but what is the point if the party nominee does not represent our views?
I vote my heart in the primaries, and if I lose there (I usually do, haven’t won since Reagan’s 2nd campaign), then I hold my nose and swing on the elephant’s tail.
CNN Poll? Worthless.
I believe the timing is all wrong for Palin. In fact, I'm not even sure she'll run. In that scenario, I believe Huckabee beats Romney and becomes the nominee, and could win.
PS--My name comes from Twain, not Huckabee. I'm not endorsing him, just sayin'.
Repeat after me... “In the primaries, I will not vote based on the MSM’s projection of ‘electability’. I will vote for the candidate who most reflects my views.”
If Huck or Mitt get the nod, the Pubbies lose.
Their competing convention speeches show the differences between them. Huck is media smooth, like Clinton; Palin is hot. The best speech besides hers was Rudy’s. I can see him as her VP, and he would take it. My guess is that he can see himself as her Cheney.
I also think things like CNN polls are created in such as way as to try to discourage true conservatives. CNN is part of the problem not part of the solution, so maybe we should consider the source and continue on.
The pubbies have to keep Obama off balance. He still is, but they are not pushing hard enough.
I completely agree. I like Herman Cain right now. I was a ‘Fredhead’ last time around, Huck and Mitt were never top of my list.
Bottom line: the MSM/Cultural Marxist/Progressive machine WANT people like Huck to win but they’re scared to death of Palin. She shines the light on them the way Reagan did and the cockroaches flee for their lives.
Lib polls - “winner” is a code word for Romney or Jeb Bush.
He doesn't seem slick, he seems smarmy and sleazy, like a corpulent less charismatic Elmer Gantry.
I just don't see Huckabee winning the nomination. His past opinions and stances could easily be exploited.
I really dont care at this point.
For me - its ANYBODY BUT BARRY 2012 - INCLUDING MADOFF, SCOTT PETERSON, VANDERSLOOT, OJ, ETC.
CNN is worried about this election...good.
Huck is a worse RINO than Mitt, IMHO. Mitt, at least, had the sorry excuse of representing a far left constituency. They both should become Democrats and challenge ObaMao.
“In the primaries, I will not vote based on the MSMs projection of electability.”
No, I will vote based on my own judgment about electability. Count me in the 68%.
I will not vote if the candidate is not a conservative.
Plus, anyone who thinks Huck is a winner hasn’t been paying attention.
If Palin's half the gal I think she is, I think she'll go out the way Reagan did and a good chance her VP would be the next POTUS. I hope she puts in a strong conservative who at the same time can communicate with everybody.
This is news. What the poll can't show is "who can win". We won't really know this until November 2012. In February 2008 all the talking heads were telling us the GOP pick "a winner" over ideology. How did that work out?
Pretty shrewd analysis, but there is something afoot with Huckabee. While it is not openly known, he is NOT going to run this time.
His wife absolutely forbids it and he knows how he struggled to raise funds last time. His PAC is the lowest performing of all potential candidates.
He has no money,
his campaign staff have all moved on to work for other people,
he just signed a seven figure contract with FOX,
he has launched a new radio show,
he knows he would be pilloried for the pardons/turned murderers,
he just took out a $2.5 million dollar mortgage for a mansion he is building in Florida
he’s backed out of speeches scheduled in Iowa this summer
he has scheduled a cruise this summer in what could be prime campaign time
...but the number one reason I know he is not running is: he’s gained back about 60 or 70 pounds of the original 100 pounds he lost before he ran in 2008.
Fat and happy with his Fox gig, and needing that high income to pay his mortgage, he isn’t going to run. He’s telling everyone he will decide ‘late.’ and I think that means he might get in if, and only if, he’s still leading in the polls and Governor Plain doesn’t get in, as they split the evangelical vote.
Knowing all this, when I see these polls, I automatically add a majority (probably 60% if not more) of Huckabee’s total to Palin’s.
You can see why I am confident as I’ve said all along; Governor Palin will win the nomination in a cakewalk and the White House in a landslide.
Well, Bush was moire than ten years younger than Reagan. Rudy is twenty years older, more the elder statesman type. And in case you haven’t noticed, Cheney is pretty liberal on social issues.
I doubt that either Sarah or Huck can woo the moderate voters. And, like it or not, those wishy-washy namby-pamby shrinking-violet moderates are the ones who determine the outcomes of elections.
I don’t know ANYONE who would vote for Huckabee, not a single person (except, here on FreeRepublic).
My first impression of him is "used car salesman." He's all slick and no straight talk. Just another politician from Arkansas.
We want a winner.
I’ll take a strong conservative Republican Congress against Hussein any day to a malleable, sometimes liberal Republican President.
I prefer a true conservative President and a true conservative Congress.
So basically the top 3 are all tied. No one has really broken free.
Huckabee and Romney have for the most part retained the support they had at the end of the 2008 primary, if anything they’ve bled around 20-25% of it. Both ended 2008 with around 25% or so.
I continue to think whoever emerges from the Huckabee/Palin wing will be the nominee. The two of them combined have consistently doubled up on Romney. I see Mitt as representing the establishment/moderate/beltway/business side of things and Huckabee/Palin representing the conservative/populist/social(cultural) side of things. I’d see the Tea Party types as more leaning towards the Huck/Palin side than the Romney side. Huckabee and Palin both appeal to simliar evangelical/populist types.
I see one of the two of them emerging, winning IA, then winning SC and going from there. If Palin wins in IA the momentum will be too great to stop and she’ll win. If it’s Huckabee I don’t think it wil as large a momentum boost but he’ll still likely win.
Palin has to be somewhat pleased considering that this poll was taken basically a week after the national media accused her of masterminding the Giffords shooting and proclaimed her career over.
Palin is attacked by the media every day. The media haven’t even lifted a finger against Huckabee or Romney. That has an impact. Once people find out about Romneycare in MA he’s finished. And how many people know Huck commuted the sentence of a guy who went on to kill 4 cops? Among his many commutations and pardons. Lets see what happens once they start getting scrutiny.
But as for Palin, if she wants to run, now is clearly her best opportunity. It’s hard to see her being a better position come 2016 or beyond.
As Eminem said, you get one shot, one opportunity.
What is interesting is that palin and huckleberry are the only two candidates with over 70% favorability among republicans. Additionally, Palin comes in highest as second choice if their candidate is not in or drops out. Taking first and second choices combined palin 38, romney 37, huckleberry 35. I didn’t see Duncan hunter or Michelle bachmann in the cross tabs, so I can’t comment on their prospects.
No, we don’t need a moderate nominee. And I’d happily vote for Sarah. But she’s not especially liked amongst the moderates I know and that issue would have to be seriously addressed. Not to mention that the republicans who hate Sarah would probably blow the entire election. They hate her worse than the libs. It ain’t fair but I’ve never seen such levels of hate for a person who has really done absolutely nothing to deserve it. BDS was mild compared to PDS. Maybe it’s a new psychiatric disorder.
Excellent analysis, now look at my post #24.
This thing is almost over before it starts, and it is scaring the establishment to death.
That’s why there is a sudden surge to promote Jeb in the media. They are desperate because Governor Palin has this thing all but wrapped up.
you also have to wonder about a poll that shows 3% of Republicans have never heard of Sarah Palin. How is that possible? That 13% and 11% have never heard of Romney and Huckabee respectively. They only both ran for over a year in 2008 and were the runners-up. 12% have never heard of Gingrich??? Just what kind of Republicans are they polling?
Let’s hope there’s more of us then them. There’ll always be the “other guys” and that’s OK - it takes all kinds to make the world. But let’s try to get the good guys (and gals) to run the show if at all possible.
They are polling ‘adults.’
Not likely voters, or even registered voters...so some of these people are obviously apolitical and I’m sure will not vote in the general, let alone a primary.
These polls are for one purpose, to sway weak minded people into voting the way they want. They are less than meaningless.
They’re polling people like themselves. Probably an off-record screening question goes something like, “Do you hate or are you scared of Palin?”
Yes, CNN is my ‘go-to guy’ for polls and advice on who the hell they think I should vote for.....
As long as the Republican party nominates someone who’s an actual conservative, we will get a winner. It’s only by betraying principles for the illusion of “electability” that we can get in trouble.
This will all come down to the campaign. If Gov. Palin is as good a campaigner as I think she is, the “moderate” Republican voter will turn out to some degree while the Conservative Republican voter would turn out in massive numbers.
Your point about the establishment Republicans is dead on and would be her biggest obstacle.
Same here. I liked Fred.
well, i wouldn’t go that far? all but wrapped up is a bit too presumptuous. People thought Hillary had it all but wrapped up.
I continue to be perplexed by Huckabee’s support. I’m fairly involved in politics, talk with people who are, etc... most of whom are pretty conservative and I don’t know any of them who really like Huckabee. It’s almost like when Nixon won in 72 and that NYT writer said “How did he win, I don’t know anyone who voted for him”.
Huckabee must have support out there, but I haven’t really seen it. Just look at his PAC #s compared to the others for example. Romney had around 3500 $200+ donors. Palin had around 2500. Pawlenty had around 1500. Huckabee had around 400. Now, I know that doesn’t tell you everything, but it sholud give you some idea of the level of enthusiasm and support out there. And Huckabee wasn’t just behind, he was way behind. Same in terms of total $ raised.
I think a lot of his support may be from people who otherwise would like Palin but just don’t think she can win so they go with Huckabee instead. It would explain why she leads the 2nd choice question.
I’d like to see a poll that asked “If you knew the Republican was guaranteed to win in 2012 who would you choose for the nominee?” I think Palin would do omuch better in that. I think a main problem for her is that people think she’s unelectable so they go with someone else.
I’d also like to see poll of Obama/Biden vs Palin/Huckabee or Palin/Romney. I think she’d do much better in general polls vs Obama if she was listed along with a potential VP and it was ticket vs ticket not just her vs Obama. I think most of those who’d vote for Huckabee or Romney over Obama but not Palin, would vote for her over Obama if one of them was along as VP.
I won't vote for Hucklebug if he is the GOP nominee.
I think most of that would change if she ends up the nominee. It will mean she’s successfully gone through a whole campaign, a whole bunch of debates, a whole bunch of forums, speeches, a whole bunch of rallies, unveiled a whoel set of policies, etc... And through it all emerged on top of all the other contenders.
If that happens, by the time she wins the nomination and gets to the convention people will see her differently. They’ll see her more as a serious candidate with serious ideas and will have been used to seeing her campaign for a year or more. She’ll have a more moderate VP that will bring people on board.
So, if she does get the nomination, it will mean that things will be very different than they are today.
Of course we shouldn’t get over confident, but check out my break down in post #24... I think I make a compelling case.
I think Governor Palin is in way better shape than many think.
Of course it will still be a hard fought battle, but Palin supporters need to remain confident,(the biggest problem is staying positive with all the endless smears and derision) she is in the pole position and perfectly aligned to win it all.
I just can’t buy this. I’m open to alot of folks in the GOP at this point but I’ll not support Governor Gomer Huckleberry or the great Myth.
I don’t really care about polls until people have actually entered the race.
I think Huckabee is the fulcrum. If he runs, things get a lot tougher. He is very strong in IA. Very strong. And as southerner, he will be very tough in SC. If he doesn’t run, things get quite a bit easier. Also, if people like Demint or Bachmann run that could complicate things.
I think if she runs her campaign will go one of two ways. Either she’ll do very well and romp. Or, things will go very badly. I don’t really see a lot of in between.