Skip to comments.Gallup: That electoral map for Obama in 2012 starting to look grim
Posted on 02/23/2011 3:29:18 PM PST by SeekAndFind
That’s not quite what Gallup explicitly says in its analysis, but it’s a rather inevitable conclusion when one sees the graphic presentation of the results. Barack Obama lost eleven points in his approval ratings on a state-by-state basis in 2010, and now the floor has Obama in danger of losing the next election. Bear in mind when looking at the legend that the “average” approval rating for Obama was 47% — and that Obama had a 50% or better rating only in the dark-green states:
Obama’s overall average approval rating in 2010 was 47%, down 11 percentage points from the 58% he recorded in his first calendar year in office. For purposes of this state-by-state analysis, Obama’s average is calculated for the calendar year, and is therefore slightly different than the yearly average calculated beginning with his inauguration on January 20, 2009.
Broadly speaking, residents of 20 states gave Obama an approval rating within three percentage points of his national average (between 43.8% and 49.8%). Twelve states plus the District of Columbia had average approval ratings above that range, and in 18 states, approval fell below it.
The graphic is striking. Obama only gets majority approval for his performance on the West Coast and the Northeast — and not even all of those areas. He holds his home state of Illinois and his birth state of Hawaii, both unsurprisingly, but between the coasts there exists a vast land of either indifference or outright disapproval. Traditional Democratic states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are wavering. The entire interior West has become outright hostile. More than half of the states have shown a double-digit decline in approval for Obama.
Presidents can win re-election with overall approval ratings below 50%, but that usually requires either a credible third-party challenge or an extraordinarily poor challenger. The economy would have to significantly improve to move these numbers in the direction where Obama can feel safe, and that seems unlikely to happen while Obama continues to press for regulatory adventurism.
Obama has a year at best to turn this around. He won the 2008 election at the peak of Bush fatigue by seven points nationwide. Continuing erosion in his standing puts the White House within the grasp of the GOP, especially if they nominate a credible candidate who can attract a “big tent” of those discontented with Obama.
I see too much of Clinton’s second run. Bill blanketed with ads early and endless. Dole had no chance.
This will be like USSR Tv which almost ALL TV is like that now. They all love the muslim. TV will fool many women and anyone who voted for him before.
Alternatively it could be like Scott Brown and Crokaley in MA. Brown turned out to be a RINO but people were mobiled.
Vote fraud will be rampant in 2012.
‘puts the White House within the grasp of the GOP, especially if they nominate a credible candidate who can attract a big tent of those discontented with Obama.’
I burn down ‘big tents’.
NH should be the same shade as Maine; at the very least...lots of Obama love around here.
Gallup is a phucking joke.It is a hell of alot worse for the kenyan than that.No poilcies are being implemented now to turn the economy around in 18 months.No jobs are comming back and the smart people know that.It will be years before we can right this terrible wrong forced upon this once great country.
In other words, just wait a few weeks.
>>He blanketed everything with $700 million from the middle east, china, et al.<<
Not necessarily relevant. The money was lost on me since I don’t have TV. I just read the facts back in 2008 and realized he was a VERY poor choice.
Besides, I still don’t think he will complete his first term.
EXACTLY! Don't throw money down a rat hole in states you just aren't going to win...go after those winnable 'border-line' states. On to victory!
If she wins FL, MI, MN, OH, WI, IN and PA then it is over.
OH, FL, IN and probably WI should be very doable. MI maybe. PA is going to be key. I doubt the m**lim can win OH and FL this time.
I wouldn't be surprised if Obama manufactures inflation, and then has his minions push it back down right before the election.
You’re far too gloomy Frantzie.
Clinton’s personal scandals hadn’t surfaced in 96, the economy was rolling pretty good, and Clinton STILL didn’t win a majority of the popular vote. It was his SECOND plurality win aided by HRP.
To me 2012 looks like it’s setting up for a Republican POTUS and solid control of both branches of Congress.
$5 gas and the resulting economic plunge will have people yearning for the good old days of 2010 when unemployment was only 10%.
No amount of advertising (paid or MSM driven) for Baraq will overcome that.
Don't have the exact number of electoral votes needed but Obama is safe in the usual big states - CA, NY, IL, etc.
He needs 3, maybe 4 more states for a Dem victory. That means Barry can ignore most of the west and focus on winning a few key states - very do-able. That's no different than most presidential campaigns since Mondale.
Clinton is a piece of garbage but he is pretty smart. He was fairly moderate and he lucked out BIG time with Poppy’s Post Gulf War 1 gift of dirt cheap energy for almost 8 years.
I despise Clinton but compared to this evil ******* - Bill Clinton was probably more conservative than McCain.
If you asked me to chose back in 2008 - okay you get 8 years of Clinton or 4 years of Obama. I would have taken 8 more years of Bill. Bill was horrible but this one is nightmarish. Bill was better on the borders than Bush was.
The question is can Sarah with her fishin' huntin' sled ridin' ways woo the hearts of the more outdoorzee Michiganders that are typically pulling the "D" lever. I think she has a shot and her book starting and ending with Michigan was a hint for the future, she knows this state is key.
Look @ my tagline. If she Snags Ford's Allan Mulally as VP who can't go into a 7/11 without writing an autograph, and is out of the box not DC insider, who know has to cut cost on her ticket, Katie bar the door. Think about it. Also I wouldn't rule out Rick Snyder the new Gov, in MI if he pulls off a turn-around. Again not a Washington Insider...
Watch things change as King Obama hands out his private stash (our tax money) and buys millions of additional voters.
Thanks. WI was a wipeout for the Dems. I need to look at the election results in MI. So in Allan M really that big of a star? I have a blue oval product so I know that they do a good job.
Oh, I asked because I don’t recall Sarah Palin ever wearing a mini-skirt.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.