Skip to comments.Gallup: That electoral map for Obama in 2012 starting to look grim
Posted on 02/23/2011 3:29:18 PM PST by SeekAndFind
That’s not quite what Gallup explicitly says in its analysis, but it’s a rather inevitable conclusion when one sees the graphic presentation of the results. Barack Obama lost eleven points in his approval ratings on a state-by-state basis in 2010, and now the floor has Obama in danger of losing the next election. Bear in mind when looking at the legend that the “average” approval rating for Obama was 47% — and that Obama had a 50% or better rating only in the dark-green states:
Obama’s overall average approval rating in 2010 was 47%, down 11 percentage points from the 58% he recorded in his first calendar year in office. For purposes of this state-by-state analysis, Obama’s average is calculated for the calendar year, and is therefore slightly different than the yearly average calculated beginning with his inauguration on January 20, 2009.
Broadly speaking, residents of 20 states gave Obama an approval rating within three percentage points of his national average (between 43.8% and 49.8%). Twelve states plus the District of Columbia had average approval ratings above that range, and in 18 states, approval fell below it.
The graphic is striking. Obama only gets majority approval for his performance on the West Coast and the Northeast — and not even all of those areas. He holds his home state of Illinois and his birth state of Hawaii, both unsurprisingly, but between the coasts there exists a vast land of either indifference or outright disapproval. Traditional Democratic states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are wavering. The entire interior West has become outright hostile. More than half of the states have shown a double-digit decline in approval for Obama.
Presidents can win re-election with overall approval ratings below 50%, but that usually requires either a credible third-party challenge or an extraordinarily poor challenger. The economy would have to significantly improve to move these numbers in the direction where Obama can feel safe, and that seems unlikely to happen while Obama continues to press for regulatory adventurism.
Obama has a year at best to turn this around. He won the 2008 election at the peak of Bush fatigue by seven points nationwide. Continuing erosion in his standing puts the White House within the grasp of the GOP, especially if they nominate a credible candidate who can attract a “big tent” of those discontented with Obama.
Grim? Looks rosy to me, even if they did use some really ugly shades of green.
Gallup is Obotula friendly. It is actually much worse than this. In VA he is totally despised, so the average rating is bogus.
Wait until gas is $5/gallon and the rate of inflation is 8-10%.
Be mindful of the point that Obama could win again if he has an extraordinarily poor challenger. Most of the GOP hopefuls come to mind, particularly the ones with high poll #s.
Gas will be there soon but I would guess we already have 8 to 10% inflation - maybe even higher.
If the trend in gas prices continues, Barry Sh!t-for-brains is toast - unless GOP runs a 75 year old war-hero Senator.
RE: Be mindful of the point that Obama could win again if he has an extraordinarily poor challenger
From THE DOOMED PRESIDENT.
See here :
Pundits muse how Obama can save his presidency. He cannot. Obama, politically, is doomed. Republicans do not have a Reagan waiting in the wings, but that will not matter in 2012. All Republicans are attempting to don the mantle of Reagan, who has thoroughly captured in death what he could not in life, the heart of the Republican Party. This grand and overriding figure, like FDR and Lincoln, will dominate the rhetoric and policies of the Republican Party. Republicans will not commit hara-kiri in 2012.
So why is Obama certain to lose, even against very ordinary Republican nominees? Food, fuel and clothing are rising in price at dramatic rates. Food, especially, is critical. Every shopping cart in every grocery is pushed by an American who finds prices for ordinary things, like bread, milk, and cereal jumping higher and higher. At the checkout counter, the total keeps rising higher and higher. In the last six months, food prices have risen by over 27%. The size of the beef herds in America is at a fifty year low and the impact upon consumers will, inevitably, be sharp. Obama and his Kobe beef-eating friends, invariably rich, do not feel the pinch. All the rest of us do. Government could do a lot to lower food prices, from ending the Ethanol scam to overriding environmentalists who are turning some of the richest farmland on earth in California into a dust bowl.
How expensive will food be in 20 months, when Obama seeks re-election? Fuel costs are rising, and that will push food prices higher no matter what else happens. Retailers who are currently restocking their food supplies will have to recover the higher costs they are paying now by passing that on to the consumer later. Environmental regulators are making policy each day that will have its sting to the consumer months or years later. If Obama acted now, he could slow the rise in food costs, but not before November 2012.
Compounding the picture of Americans who get angrier with Obama each time they go shopping (or, for that matter, eat out at a fast food restaurant) is the fact that rising food costs are already creating turmoil in the rest of the world. A planet full of enraged people rioting for more food and for cheaper food creates a domino series of problems for Obama. Who do the unhappy people of the world blame for their problems? Us, no matter what, only this time these miserable folk will be partly right. Farmers, who along with oilmen are our most productive citizens, feed much of the planet. When the left acts on its fetish with ethanol and imposes environmentally caused droughts in California farmland, it hits our pockets, but in those parts of the world where malnutrition is reality, hunger turns to violence. Obama cannot quell this rage by symbolic gestures. The more he tries to finesse the real hunger of nations with conferences and rhetoric, the more the streets of these nations will turn against him.
The grimmer, the better.
I would bet he will spend $5 billion versus $700 million on ads this time. This means he can buy ALL media for all of 2012. He already owns ALL of TV and O’Reilly and Fox are just as bad.
He blanketed everything with $700 million from the middle east, china, et al. He will spend whatever it takes. $10 billion? No problem.
Inflation is just gettin started too.
My guess is she is going for an electoral win aka the Bush win in 2000. Watch the liberals heads explode over that one. She will go for WI, MN, OH, MI, IN and PA, the South, FLA and TX. Screw the NE and the West they are lost.
She is already playing the electoral map, and the likes of Barnes, Kruthammer and Kristol are too stupid to see it....
Wayne Gretsky in a mini-skirt she is, she is three moves a head and these toads are still adjusting their cups...
The last time the GOP had a chance like this, they wheeled out Bob Dole to run against Clinton.
...talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...
They’re trying to say he has “average” approval in half of the South? REALLY?!! Texas? Mississippi? Please!!
I see too much of Clinton’s second run. Bill blanketed with ads early and endless. Dole had no chance.
This will be like USSR Tv which almost ALL TV is like that now. They all love the muslim. TV will fool many women and anyone who voted for him before.
Alternatively it could be like Scott Brown and Crokaley in MA. Brown turned out to be a RINO but people were mobiled.
Vote fraud will be rampant in 2012.
‘puts the White House within the grasp of the GOP, especially if they nominate a credible candidate who can attract a big tent of those discontented with Obama.’
I burn down ‘big tents’.
NH should be the same shade as Maine; at the very least...lots of Obama love around here.
Gallup is a phucking joke.It is a hell of alot worse for the kenyan than that.No poilcies are being implemented now to turn the economy around in 18 months.No jobs are comming back and the smart people know that.It will be years before we can right this terrible wrong forced upon this once great country.
In other words, just wait a few weeks.
>>He blanketed everything with $700 million from the middle east, china, et al.<<
Not necessarily relevant. The money was lost on me since I don’t have TV. I just read the facts back in 2008 and realized he was a VERY poor choice.
Besides, I still don’t think he will complete his first term.
EXACTLY! Don't throw money down a rat hole in states you just aren't going to win...go after those winnable 'border-line' states. On to victory!
If she wins FL, MI, MN, OH, WI, IN and PA then it is over.
OH, FL, IN and probably WI should be very doable. MI maybe. PA is going to be key. I doubt the m**lim can win OH and FL this time.
I wouldn't be surprised if Obama manufactures inflation, and then has his minions push it back down right before the election.
You’re far too gloomy Frantzie.
Clinton’s personal scandals hadn’t surfaced in 96, the economy was rolling pretty good, and Clinton STILL didn’t win a majority of the popular vote. It was his SECOND plurality win aided by HRP.
To me 2012 looks like it’s setting up for a Republican POTUS and solid control of both branches of Congress.
$5 gas and the resulting economic plunge will have people yearning for the good old days of 2010 when unemployment was only 10%.
No amount of advertising (paid or MSM driven) for Baraq will overcome that.
Don't have the exact number of electoral votes needed but Obama is safe in the usual big states - CA, NY, IL, etc.
He needs 3, maybe 4 more states for a Dem victory. That means Barry can ignore most of the west and focus on winning a few key states - very do-able. That's no different than most presidential campaigns since Mondale.
Clinton is a piece of garbage but he is pretty smart. He was fairly moderate and he lucked out BIG time with Poppy’s Post Gulf War 1 gift of dirt cheap energy for almost 8 years.
I despise Clinton but compared to this evil ******* - Bill Clinton was probably more conservative than McCain.
If you asked me to chose back in 2008 - okay you get 8 years of Clinton or 4 years of Obama. I would have taken 8 more years of Bill. Bill was horrible but this one is nightmarish. Bill was better on the borders than Bush was.
The question is can Sarah with her fishin' huntin' sled ridin' ways woo the hearts of the more outdoorzee Michiganders that are typically pulling the "D" lever. I think she has a shot and her book starting and ending with Michigan was a hint for the future, she knows this state is key.
Look @ my tagline. If she Snags Ford's Allan Mulally as VP who can't go into a 7/11 without writing an autograph, and is out of the box not DC insider, who know has to cut cost on her ticket, Katie bar the door. Think about it. Also I wouldn't rule out Rick Snyder the new Gov, in MI if he pulls off a turn-around. Again not a Washington Insider...
Watch things change as King Obama hands out his private stash (our tax money) and buys millions of additional voters.
Thanks. WI was a wipeout for the Dems. I need to look at the election results in MI. So in Allan M really that big of a star? I have a blue oval product so I know that they do a good job.
Oh, I asked because I don’t recall Sarah Palin ever wearing a mini-skirt.
I despised Clinton. But he was a self-absorbed a**hole. He was always looking out for himself. Obama is a “true believer”. He actually believes in the stuff he is ramming down our throats. He is much more dangerous.
And keep in mind that millions of good conservative Republicans would not vote if the candidate is someone they don't like even if it puts King Obama in again. We got King Obama the last time just that way.
You do realize that Maine took the governor's mansion, the house AND the senate - for the first time in 50 yrs. (Of course you do.)
You do know that our new governor is Chris Christie WITHOUT the RINO tendency. (Of course you do.)
You do know he's already kicking butt big time- letting no grass grown under his feet - (Of course you do.)
Now on to say bah buy to to our 2 RINO madams - we're returning to our historical roots as one of the deepest Conservative states in the country = and all thanks to the 'bummer-muzzie in the WH.
He woke up the sheeple and they are stampeding.
Think about it, if she gets him on the ticket what a jux-position of a free-market turnaround with no government money vs. 4 years of TARP, QE1, QE2, GM, and every other government centric top down fiasco that has turned this economy into return of the Ceauşescu's...
If he is 1/2 the star I think he is I can't see how Michigan doesn't go Sarah's way with him on the ticket.
I also hear he has let down his hair a bit in some meetings with the troops and takes a jab or two at the poltical class...
And georgia as well. There is absophuckinglutely no way his rating in our state is average.
The Elephant in the room.... THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE.
Clinton won with 43% in 1992.
I tell you what, my better half will kill me unless I take her :-)...
If Maine goes GOP in 12' we are gonna have to meet at Chauncey's Creek for a Laubbstaa....!!!
Best dang Laubstaa I ever had.
Yes I raised on the east coast and had a good friend that lived in Wells and I spent a lot of time in that area.
The true annual inflation rate already is closer to 48% than to 8%. Crude oil prices soared 8% just yesterday alone. I acknowledge that the government and Federal Reserve perceive inflation as negative. That’s because the labor on installation of specialty electronics on luxury yachts has gotten cheaper with escalating unemployment.