Posted on 04/24/2011 9:42:07 AM PDT by library user
All those who were hoping global stock markets would surge tomorrow based on a ridiculous rumor that China would revalue the CNY by 10% will have to wait.
Instead, China has decided to serve the world another surprise. Following last week's announcement by PBoC Governor Zhou (Where's Waldo) Xiaochuan that the country's excessive stockpile of USD reserves has to be urgently diversified, today we get a sense of just how big the upcoming Chinese defection from the "buy US debt" Nash equilibrium will be.
Not surprisingly, China appears to be getting ready to cut its USD reserves by roughly the amount of dollars that was recently printed by the Fed, or $2 trilion or so.
And to think that this comes just as news that the Japanese pension fund will soon be dumping who knows what. So, once again, how about that "end of QE" again?
From Xinhua:
China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 197.4 billion U.S. dollars in the first three months of this year to 3.04 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of March.
Xia Bin, a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, said on Tuesday that 1 trillion U.S. dollars would be sufficient. He added that China should invest its foreign exchange reserves more strategically, using them to acquire resources and technology needed for the real economy.
And as if the public sector making it all too clear what is about to happen was not enough, here is the private one as well:
China should reduce its excessive foreign exchange reserves and further diversify its holdings, Tang Shuangning, chairman of China Everbright Group, said on Saturday.
The amount of foreign exchange reserves should be restricted to between 800 billion to 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars, Tang told a forum in Beijing, saying that the current reserve amount is too high.
Tang's remarks echoed the stance of Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, who said on Monday that China's foreign exchange reserves "exceed our reasonable requirement" and that the government should upgrade and diversify its foreign exchange management using the excessive reserves.
Tang also said that China should further diversify its foreign exchange holdings. He suggested five channels for using the reserves, including replenishing state-owned capital in key sectors and enterprises, purchasing strategic resources, expanding overseas investment, issuing foreign bonds and improving national welfare in areas like education and health.
However, these strategies can only treat the symptoms but not the root cause, he said, noting that the key is to reform the mechanism of how the reserves are generated and managed.
The last sentence says it all. While China is certainly tired of recycling US Dollars, it still has no viable alternative, especially as long as its own currency is relegated to the C-grade of not even SDR-backing currencies. But that will all change very soon. Once the push for broad Chinese currency acceptance is in play, the CNY and the USD will be unpegged, promptly followed by China dumping the bulk of its USD exposure, and also sending the world a message that US debt is no longer a viable investment opportunity. In fact, we are confident that the reval is a likely a key preceding step to any strategic decision vis-a-vis US FX exposure (read bond purchasing/selling intentions). As such, all those Americans pushing China to revalue, may want to consider that such an action could well guarantee hyperinflation, once the Fed is stuck as being the only buyer of US debt.
Hmmm, wonder how this would effect the markets tomorrow? If I were China’s top money man, I would definitely start ridding my country of US dollars as quick as possible. obamma and his RAT thugs are taking this country down into a sewer hole very fast. Hyperinflation is coming!
if anyone thinks (no posts this thread yet) the Chinese would hurt themselves by selling treasuries and hurting market value the vast issuance has been short term paper,bills and notes as opposed to bonds. They can dump the longer end and simply let the shorter paper mature which would be a pretty painless way for them to lower exposure.
Blame Obongo & Democrats suicidal debts and spending and Federal Reserves Quantitative Easing programs. These are so in your face to the ChiComs that we are trashing the US dollars they are holding. They know we have been playing them for suckers and they want out. They can easily dump US dollars and buy-—>>
gold
silver
copper
Canadian dollar bonds
Australian dollar bonds
Oil companies around the world
Natural resources companies around the world
This would bring down the current administration which has no intent of reducing spending. The one mitigating factor normally would be other nations stepping in to buy higher yielding treasuries. I’m not sure who’s left out there to buy our paper.
Sure! They will be worth exactly what a dollar will be.
It's not so much about something the Chinese do to us as it is what we are doing to ourselves. The Chinese are just facing the reality of a devaluing dollar. They can't stop it, but they can make the best possible choice concerning their existing dollar holdings. If they get it out of dollars and into tangible assets they can try to protect what they have. Not a bad strategy for anyone.
Maybe this is the reason why all of those US Senators are on a trip to China for undisclosed reasons. An international begging trip.
That’ll work great till people lose their homes...
No home = no yard = no garden.
Watch gold and oil prices tomorrow. That will tell you what the world is thinking.
And Silver too. Never forget about Silver!
and eliminate the illegal income tax!
Selling Low and Buying High? This is awesome. Single-handedly destroying hundreds of billions of accumulated wealth that they’ll never see again.
All I know is that I’m still long on the USD. :D Dollar drops again, I can buy more USD.
Yes, but now they take it in the shorts. Massively.
They are getting whipsawed, with few to any chances of recouping that money because they are buying into stuff that’s already high.
What happens with the long term deflationary effects bite and commodity prices drop again?
-Barack Hussein Obama
I suspect that China can unload a lot fairly quickly by simply not rolling them over as they come due. I don’t know this for a fact, but it seems logical that they are holding short term stuff.
That’s why I sold my home and live in my motor coach and live on land paid for. People need to downsize if they can. This coming time is not going to be for the light hearted.
Vegetables can be grown with hydroponics also which I am doing on a small scale in case I need to know how. Very little space is needed.
So will we see 7500 on the Dow tomorrow?
“That’ll work great till people lose their homes...
No home = no yard = no garden.”
Which is already the case for the millions who live in apartments, or homes where raising chickens in the back yard is prohibited, or the back yard is the size of a postage stamp.
Who would be on the buying end? That’s a lot of money.
Therein lies the problem. If they do not accept new debt in increasing amounts as payment for the maturing bonds, we have to 'pay the note'. Where in heaven's name are we going to get that much cash from? Printing it would collapse our currency into a Zimbabwe style hyperinflation.
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