[TigerLikesRooster]

This adds more credence to the fear that long-heralded Tokai Earthquake is coming soon.

[VanShuyten]

A very dangerous part of the Tokai quake fault is located onshore, running right through the city of Shizuoka. This article is about the Japan Trench quakes north of the Tokai-Japan Trench area. There was a M6 quake near the on-shore Tokai fault just a few weeks after the M9, but the expected major quake along the on-shore portion of the Tokai fault is still overdue. The threat from the off-shore quake, expected to be similar to the M9 in March, was the main reason the Japanese government decided to shut down the Hamaoka nuclear plants in Shizuoka Prefecture.

I lived in Shizuoka-ken for over a decade, and both Mrs. VanShuyten and I are happy to be here in Virginia.

[lefty-lie-spy]

All this says is that earthquakes are STILL unpredictable. When it happens, it happens. So what? I hope I survive, but that’s about it. I rather enjoy the earthquakes anyway.

[Iris7]

The “slipping” of materials under even very linear stress increases is mathematically chaotic. Past behavior is not a predictor in such systems. Even with massive instrumentation, unfortunately.

All you can say, with a high degree of confidence, is that Japan historically has been prone to earthquakes. One can infer that, more than likely, a magnitude 10 earthquake will happen less often than a magnitude 7 earthquake over a “long enough” period of time.

Humans hate and fear uncertainty, of course, and so tell themselves stories to make themselves less fearful and increase social bonding. Such is human nature.