Skip to comments.Paging Rick Perry: How a Southerner Could Sweep to the G.O.P. Nomination (getting into the weeds)
Posted on 06/11/2011 12:05:03 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
MAY 18, 2011 - Being a Southerner conveys certain advantages upon a Republican presidential candidate.
Since 1980, a Southerner has finished first or second in every Iowa Republican presidential caucus.
The White House has been occupied by a Southerner counting the Massachusetts-born and decidedly patrician George H.W. Bush, who resided in Texas at the time he ran for office in 30 of the past 46 years. Im not sure this is entirely a coincidence....
If a candidate dominates the South and its much easier for a Southern candidate to do that hell have made a lot of headway into winning the votes and delegates that hell need to secure his partys nomination.... a candidate like Mr. Perry, who would have advantages like fundraising and establishment support that would extend to all corners of the country, ...doing very well in the South and still well enough outside of it to win his partys nomination.
For a Republican candidate, in fact, this advantage may be especially powerful because of a demographic quirk related to Iowa, the first and most important state in the nominating process. Some 60 percent of Iowa Republican voters are born-again Christians about the same fraction as in many Southern states....
......Hed stand a good chance at doing well in Iowa, and if he did, hed probably follow it up with a win in South Carolina, and possibly also Florida. And then hed pick up plenty of delegates in the Southern states that voted on Super Tuesday and beyond including of course Texas, which itself accounts for 140 delegates.
So dont sell the Southern Republicans short yet the advantages the primary system offers to candidates like Mr. Perry could be more than enough to make up for a late start.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
Does Mitt Romney's decision not to participate in the early straw polls help Rick Perry? If Perry does participate in the straw polls how would he do? If Perry doesn't participate, well.... Romney didn't either.
I’m finding it hard to get excited about Rick Perry when there are several better candidates.
I don’t know much about Perry but I am willing to listen.
He mentions Herman Cain in the article.
The fact that southerners have had some degree of success has more to do with perceptions of southerners than it does with the mere fact of birth or choice of residence. Between Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, that perception being used as just another form of consultant image-manufacturing swag to slide another ringer into the Oval Office is at an end.
Southern conservatives as a group actually are genuine, authentic, down to earth, patriotic, say what they mean and mean what they say, religious and favor small government. Automatically assuming those traits of politicians angling for election has proved to be tenuous. Wonder why, lol? Consultants and advisors, so completely accustomed to and comfortable with candidates who have no substance, so style takes precedence.
OK, so let’s take Newt. What value he had, he blew out of the water in the Clinton era. Nowadays, he’s reduced to bean counting and remarrying in a vain search for another set of coattails that are not so incredulous as the southern evangelical ones he’s soiled.
Perry? Statist. Open borders. Trans-Texas Corridor, favored a Spanish company having eminent domain property seizure authority over native Texans. That crap don’t fly with southerners, I don’t care where the $#!&* was born or resides.
So, we’re forced to go right back to those qualities that attracted the electorate to southerners in the first place. Genuine, authentic, down to earth, patriotic, say what they mean and mean what they say, religious and favor small government.
Who fits that bill? Sarah Palin. The south is hers if she runs, imho.
Well, that could change.
Rick Perry knows how to campaign.
(Anybody but Palin)
“I’m finding it hard to get excited about Rick Perry when there are several better candidates.”
Let’s look at that.
Let’s assume Perry runs, and the other candidates are Romney, Bachman, Cain, Pawlenty, Palin, Santorum, Gingrich, and whoever I may be forgetting.
If conservatives are insisting on voting for candidates with no chance of winning the primary, much less the general election, we will have a repeat of 2008 — conservative votes get split and McCain walked away with the nomination.
In this case, conservative votes would split among some six or more candidates: Bachman, Cain, Pawlenty, Palin, Santorum, Gingrich, and Romney will walk away with the nomination, and then lose spectacularly to Obama. Great conservative accomplishment!
It’s high time that conservatives focus on beating Romney and beating Obama.
Perry can do that, but only if he gets the support he needs to beat Romney.
If we have to have a RINO, Perry is the best of the lot.
Actually Democrats very much want Palin to run, that alone should give you pause — this is a big con job.
Dem strategist, Donna Brazile:
Brazile: Yes, Palin for president
Howard Dean warns Democrats Sarah Palin could beat Obama in 2012
“The guy calling in to the talk show said Perry was a RINO just like Romney.”
Please check all the facts — I think Dems are really afraid of Perry, because he really could beat Obama.
Perry was and is against Obamacare.
Perry Rejects “Obamacare,” but State Agency Pushes On
“Republican Gov. Rick Perry has made no secret of his disdain for federal health reform, or for one of its key tenets, a Travelocity-like state insurance marketplace in which consumers could choose from public and private health plans.
The threat of Perry’s veto pen even derailed legislation by one of his fellow Republican “anti-Obamacare” colleagues, who fears that if state lawmakers do not implement a health insurance exchange of their own, the federal government will do it for them - in his view an even worse fate.
But among Perry’s gubernatorial peers, his stance on the health insurance exchange appears to be losing popularity: Politico reported last week that Republican Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Scott Walker of Wisconsin - even as they continue to oppose the federal health care program overall - are taking steps to comply with that piece of the law.”
"Whoever you are forgetting" would be Ron Paul, who has officially announced. I think that he should be mentioned before Gingrich, at any rate.
What I think we (Americans) need is an antivenin to the poison that Obama has injected into our national bloodstream and that antivenin isn't Southern but Alaskan.
Southern Democrats were felt to be more moderate, so they were more likely to be nominated or elected than Northern Democrats.
The other part of the equation is the Bush family. In Massachusetts-born, Connecticut-educated Texan George H.W. Bush, the different parts of his heritage -- North and South, East and West -- cancelled out, leaving him sort of a neutral or generic American, or at least that was the hope. Something of that legacy carried over for his son, who was a truer Texan than the father.
But would a really Southern Republican have an inside track on the nomination or election? Would Hailey Barbour have had a good chance at winning? I don't think so. Maybe Fred Thompson would have, because he was Hollywood as well as Tennessee and the two cancelled out (and because Tennessee isn't Deep South).
Perry probably does stand a very good chance at winning the nomination. What could louse up his career at some point is that Texans (in the eyes of many non-Texans) don't know when to quit with the Texanism. The time comes when voters want Texanness. But Texans provide more of it than a lot of the rest of the country can bear.
On Friday Rush had a good Perry clip. Perry was taking global warming to the wood shed.
I was not mentioning them in order of preference or any order. Ron Paul would just be one more person to split the conservative votes, as I said.
Or, being a far, far Northerner...(wink wink)
You may be right but I think Governor Perry is the only GOP candidate who has what it takes to beat Obama.
I like the Alaskan antivenin!
Perry has a lot to offer too — for one thing, he makes Sarah Palin’s accent sound good. Ha! (I don’t mind Sarah’s accent — I probably sound a bit like her myself).
True. I think Perry can be Cosmopolitan enough for the crowd. Another thing to factor in are all the northerners/midwesterners/westerners who have fled to the south (in particular TX) for jobs and lower taxes (maybe they'll email the folks who stayed behind and tell them to vote for the TX guy).
Perry has been the douche against the turd sandwich in EVERY one of his re-election campaigns. All the people running against him have been losers.
I'm not alone here and Texans in the know will keep posting about Perry over and over. He did nothing on the border, nothing about illegals except give their children in-state tuition rates, allowed santuary cities, the insane Guardasil mess which was just embarrasing for him, the Trans-Texas Corridor land grab. He is no conservative. He can talk like one and get someone to help him write a book and speeches where he sounds conservative but it is just an act.
Perry has no other skills than to be in some political office. He is like Weiner, he needs a job where the taxpayers pay him. Because he has no other skills. He will say and act any way that is required so he can set his sails so he has the wind to his back. There is no there there when it comes to Rick Perry. He is all talk.
RINO RINO RINO RINO!!!!
If only there was some way to guardasil Perry from becoming the nominee. Maybe the Texas Transit Corridor has some ideas.
I have posted before against Perry, but, contrary to what some are saying, his record is no worse than mixed. Bachmann is more consistently conservative, but Perry has a more conservative record than most of the field. He has also been an effective legislative strategist in a weak-governor form of state government.
What are his flaws? His endorsing Rudy in 2008 was an absurd thing for a Texas governor to do. Then, there are the TTC and Gardasil fiascos. He also has been more talk than action on border enforcement until recently (but he has been quite serious on the border issue in this legislative session). Nevertheless, he has done a moderately good job of constraining taxes and spending (under the Texas Constitution he has far less legislative influence than outsiders would assume), he has been consistently good on promoting a culture of life, and he has been willing to stand up to the Feds on occasion (including mentioning the “S” word (secession), which is an unusually bold thing for governor to do).
Without going into all of the details, Perry is something of a conservative with some RINO tendencies. Currently, Perry is trending strongly to the right. He isnt my first, second, or third choice, but he is better than Romney, Gingrich, Huntsman, Daniels (who is not getting in), Trump (who is out for now), and Pawlenty. He is also more electable than people I like better.
NYT PLEADS:ANYONE BUT PALIN!!!
That’s just silly.
There are several candidates that could beat Obama like a red haired stepchild...
Pawlenty, Cain, Romney, & Palin.
That’s just silly.
There are several candidates that could beat Obama like a red haired stepchild...
Pawlenty, Cain, Romney, & Palin.
“He is also more electable than people I like better.”
That’s what I’m thinking. And he has to be an improvement over Obama!
So the reason they're trying so desperately to find incriminating evidence in the Alaska email dump is because they want her to run?
Logic isn't your strong suit, is it?
I saw a funny exchange on CNN a few hours ago. The on-site reporter was saying there wasn't anything bad found in the emails -- that they showed a governor who worked hard for Alaska. The old blonde anchorette wasn't expecting that happy conclusion.
I have a prediction:
Perry will announce he is running — shortly afterwards Palin will announce she is NOT running and will endorse Perry.
It will be interesting to see the posts here then. :)
There are a lot of facts about all the candidates, good and bad. Now if I had to choose between a Perry and a Romney, I'm going with Perry. I love Palin. At this point neither Palin or Perry are in the race.
I leave this article here for those interested in learning more about Perry (one pundit's views).
Perry won reelection despite the push by establishment GOP to elect Kay Bailey Hutchison.
[excerpt] "......Speaking of presidents: Rick Perry has a complicated relationship with the Bushes, which is to say that hes hesitant to criticize them and they hate his guts. W. stayed well away from Perrys gubernatorial-primary melee against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, whose oatmeal-mushy Republicanism has a distinctly Bushian savor to it. But the mark of W. was all over the campaign against Perry. Former president George H. W. Bush endorsed Senator Hutchison, an unusual step for the habitually reserved retiree, who usually stays well removed from the dirty business of vote-grubbing, surveying the groundlings from the heights of his eminence. Bush père was joined in his support by former vice president Dick Cheney, who offered an endorsement and called Hutchison the real deal. Hutchison was further fortified by the Bush clans in-house Machiavelli, former secretary of state James Baker, who led the Florida recount fight in 2000 and remains their go-to fixer. W. mouthpiece Karen Hughes came out of the political woodwork to support the insurgency, along with W.s secretary of education Margaret Spellings. Karl Rove advised Team Hutchison. The gang was all there: All this in a primary challenge to unseat an incumbent Republican governor with one of the most conservative and most successful records to be found: Que paso, Bushes?
Part of that was payback. Perry, generally circumlocutious on the subject of W., gave himself a little time off the leash during the 2008 Republican presidential primaries. Often caricatured as yet another snake-handling southern social conservative, Governor Perry backed thrice-married dress-wearing pro-choice lapsed Catholic Rudy Giuliani, on the theory that Rudy would be a badass commander-in-chief abroad and a reliable constitutionalist at home. Politics being politics, the Texan and the New Yorker met up in Iowa, where more than a few Hawkeye conservatives were already getting restive about out-of-control federal spending on the Republicans watch. Governor Perry let loose the observation that George and the Bushies hate it when Perry calls him George in public has never been a fiscal conservative. Never? Wasnt when he was in Texas . . . 95, 97, 99, George Bush was spending money. He also criticized Bush as being limp on immigration.
The truth hurts, but theres more to the Bush-Perry friction than that. One longtime observer of Lone Star politics described the Bushes disdain of Perry as visceral, and it is not too terribly hard to see why. The guy that NPR executives and the New York Times and your average Subaru-driving Whole Foods shopper were afraid George W. Bush was? Rick Perry is that guy. George W. Bush was Midland by way of Kennebunkport. Rick Perrys people are cotton farmers from Paint Creek, a West Texas town so tiny and remote that my Texan traveling-salesman father looked at me skeptically and suggested I had the name wrong when I asked him whether he knew where it was. (Governor Perry confesses that one of the politiciany things hes done in office is insisting that the Texas highway atlas include Paint Creek, making him the hometown boy who literally put the town on the map.) Bush is a Yalie, Perry is an Aggie. Bush served in the Texas Air National Guard, and Perry was a captain in the U.S. Air Force, flying C-130s in the Middle East. Bush has a gentlemans ranch, Perry has the red meat. The irony is that Perry, a tea-party favorite, personifies the hawkish new fiscal conservatism that has allowed the GOP to find its way out from under George W. Bushs shadow, but he himself remains in the shade of that politically poisonous penumbra...." [end excerpt]
I can’t wait to see all the twists and turns.
You may be right.
You could be wrong.
“Logic isn’t your strong suit, is it?”
And strategic thinking is not your strong suit, is it?
The media and the Dems (one and the same) want conservatives to support Palin, and want her to be the nominee, because they can tear her to shreds, they are working on a parallel track, destroy her credibility, while conning the conservatives into thinking that she has a chance to beat Obama and will be laughing all the way to Obama’s second term.
The press like to pick their favorite ‘safety’ candidate for the GOP nomination. Then they trash him like anything when he’s up against their first choice, which is whomever the Dems have running.
The "NYSlimes" want Obama to declare himself emperor.
Perry is WAY down the list of folks that could get me interested in voting for a Republican...
According to family and some teacher friends I have in Texas (on BOTH sides of the political spectrum), Perry is dividing the state in some very destructive ways.
One particular area of serious concern - his method of supposedly reforming the educational system - dramatic cuts to funding (not necessarily a bad thing), but the methods of cutting are actually violating state law, and is resulting in very odd and damaging flushing of some of the best teachers in state (while some very bad and sometimes inexperienced teachers are getting to keep their jobs). I know personally of one teacher that has been in the classroom over 20 years, has been recognized not only in her district, but statewide as a candidate for teacher of the year, many many honors and awards for quality of teaching... but the district she was happily working in (spotless record and evaluations) had to cut her. And from what I am hearing through the pipe - this is nowhere near an isolated cases.
And this is just one of several areas where I have been hearing frustration with Perry.
I don’t live in Texas, so I cannot speak from my own experience.
Perry is Rudy Giuliani, but without the dress.
Dude, they have been trying to “tear her to shreds” for three years now. With absolutely no success. What makes you think they could get it done if she wins the nomination? You need to lay off whatever you are smoking.