Skip to comments.Are subs, not the planes, the best way for Israel to counter Iran?
Posted on 07/01/2011 5:33:02 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
Are subs, not the planes, the best way for Israel to counter Iran?
The air force can't destroy Iran's nuclear capability, a former navy commander warns, so Israel should instead rely on strategic deterrence
By Yossi Melman
Most experts interpreted former Mossad chief Meir Dagan's warnings against an Israeli attack on Iran as being aimed first and foremost at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. But there are those who see things a bit differently.
One is the former commander of the Israel Navy, Read Admiral (ret. ) Avraham Botzer. In his view, if Netanyahu and Barak intend to attack in Iran (something this writer doubts ), and if they have a prepared plan for such an attack, it must surely be backed by the air force. "I'm afraid the air force has convinced the politicians that an attack on Iran is possible and will achieve results," Botzer said in an interview to Haaretz. "If I'm right, then we're dealing with a dangerous illusion."
Botzer was head of the navy from 1968-1972; he also served on the Israel Defense Forces General Staff. Since retiring, he has held management positions and been active on the Council for Peace and Security, founded by the late Maj. Gen. Aharon Yariv.
"Generals have a tendency to fight the last wars, and that is exactly what happened to the air force," Botzer said. "In the  Six-Day War, the air force destroyed the Egyptian, Syrian and Jordanian air forces within a couple of hours, gaining absolut
(Excerpt) Read more at haaretz.com ...
A likely scenario would be that Iran would attack Israel via a proxy like Hamas or Hizbollah. In such a case, deterrence wouldn’t be very useful, or likely to be used. At whom would Israel retaliate?
Whichever land or sea based, nuclear tipped missiles can strike the target in the shortest time, is the solution.
Sea based cruise missiles may have the advantage.
I doubt Israel has the time to develop strategic SSBNs or the missiles they carry. Maybe they would like to buy (or at lease) a couple of Ohio class subs, fully armed and ready to go...
...if Netanyahu and Barak intend to attack in Iran (something this writer doubts ), and if they have a prepared plan for such an attack, it must surely be backed by the air force. "I'm afraid the air force has convinced the politicians that an attack on Iran is possible and will achieve results," Botzer said in an interview to Haaretz. "If I'm right, then we're dealing with a dangerous illusion."The Iranian regime exists under a dangerous illusion.
In the case of the Cold War with the USSR, deterence or “Mutual Assured Distruction” worked because, in the words of the song: “The Russians love their children too”. The USSR, despite their official atheism, was rooted in western culture. The generation of Soviets who fought the Cold War remembered the hardships of WWII as their defining experience. Much like our ‘greatest generation’, the were determined that their children’s lives were going to be better. If anything, their atheistic materialism meant that when push came to shove they were not willing to die for some glorious cause.
I fear the current leadership of Iran is different. Achmadinejad believes that it is his destiny to bring about the ultimate confrontration and cataclysmic destruction that will usher in a new age. If he could utterly destroy Israel knowing that Iran would likely suffer the same fate, I fear he would view that as an acceptable trade. Unlike the Russians, he doesn’t love his children more than he hates Israel.
There’s no reasoning with these nutcases.
The Arab Israeli Wars by Herzog is one of the best books ever written on the '73 War. People tend to read history backward. If they read it forward, they will discover how bad things were for the IDF in '73.
The Egyptians literally washed away the Bar Lev Line with fire hoses. Tank columns headed east toward Israel. Nixon put America on DEFCON 3, but actually we were under DEFCON 2 (imminent war) as we were during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Hundreds of prior service (US) personnel were activated or notified of possible activation within 48 hours.
Most look back and say,"Israel kicked ass in '67 and '73." The reality is completely different...
Don Corleone: You talk about vengeance. Is vengeance gonna bring your son back to you and my boy to me? I forgo all the vengeance in my son. But I have selfish reasons. [after saying that Michael is returning to the U.S.] I'm a superstitious man, and if some unlucky accident should befall him, if he should get shot in the head by a police officer, or if he should hang himself in his jail cell, or if he's struck by a bolt of lightning, then I'm going to blame some of the people in this room. And that, I do not forgive. But that aside, let me say that I swear on the souls of my grandchildren, that I will not be the one to break the peace that we have made here today.
They can still threaten to retaliate on Iran, therebye forcing Iran to choose whether they’ll act to restrain said proxy states! It would take a pointed policy statement such as, “given that Hezbolloah and Hamas are known and established proxy movements supported by Iran, any attack by these proxy elements shall be viewed as an act of war by their supportive state.”
SSBNs have many uses which can support an air force attack. Many of these uses aren’t displayed publicly.
-——At whom would Israel retaliate?——
The blow would come from an unknown submarine and there would be no claim for wreaking the death and destruction.
It has already happened once. The computer virus has never been claimed or sourced
The pretense of surrogates would be swept aside and death in Tehran would be the result. With death in Tehran, Hamas is crippled. ditto Hezbollah
There is only one Israel, and it is a very small country. Nuking Haifa and Tel Aviv would pretty much wipe it out.
A response with targeted Tehran and a half dozen other sites, would inflict horrible devastation and suffering, but Iran would continue to exist. And a dozen other hostile states surrounding Israel would remain.
I fear the current Iranian leadership would be willing to make this trade, thinking that history will view them as heroic.
“They can still threaten to retaliate on Iran, therebye forcing Iran to choose whether theyll act to restrain said proxy states! It would take a pointed policy statement such as, given that Hezbolloah and Hamas are known and established proxy movements supported by Iran, any attack by these proxy elements shall be viewed as an act of war by their supportive state.”
You’re suggesting a degree of resolve and unity on the part of the Israeli government that I don’t think exists. I think it’s more likely that there would be hesitation and confusion. International pressure would build to do nothing. Can they be sure that Iran was involved; why should innocent Iranians be subject to collective punishment; let’s give sanctions a chance etc.
you two are absolutely correct.
Iran’s President is a religious fanatic.
especially if you read his words in Arab papers
they literally think MORE death and chaos,
will bring the return of the mahdi sooner.
deterrence assumes the other person is sane.