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Skip to comments.Hurricane Irene [Now at Cat 3]
Posted on 08/20/2011 4:22:03 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Irene has developed from Invest 97 in the Western Atlantic Ocean, east of the Leeward Islands.
Sea Surface Temps
Here in Miami, finally finished boarding up the house. On a plane to CA tomorrow. I don’t wish any hell on the Bahamas or Carolinas, but will certainly be glad to see it miss us, if it does, as now seems more likely.
Yeah, the trend seems to be shifting eastward. Of particular note is the Canadian model that I mentioned this morning: its latest run shifts from almost the “most westward” to being the “most eastward” of all forecasting models. That’s a huge swing.... but if that holds, then there might be no mainland US strike at all.
(Just to be clear, though: the official NHC track is now pointing toward Hilton Head — but I’ll look forward to the morning adjustments.)
Oh I don’t post much in those; I don’t even get half of what they are saying. But it is very interesting nonetheless.
I bought a generator in late Summer 1999. While in line with it on a pallet, the guy behind me asked “Is that a Y2K generator”.
I said “That’s an Atlanta Winter ice storm, hurricane Opal, Dunwoody Tornado, Y2K generator.”
Y2K came and went, no big deal. We had a Winter storm in late January of 2000 and were without utility power for 60 hours, and my SIL/BIL used the generator for another day beyond that, as they didn’t get power back as quickly. As far as I am concerned, that insurance cost (because that is how you should look at a generator purchase) paid for itself in that event in the first year of ownership, and every time I’ve used it since was just gravy (probably 2-3 times). It’s still going strong, I change the oil annually and exercise it quarterly.
OK, I like the track movement offshore to the east. Now let’s pick up speed and get to Martha’s grape vines toute de suite
For sure I have so many friends from the NC line all the way to Atlantic Beach as well,hope they batten down the hatches.
Forward speed is really important in these big storms if it will get in and get out even 12 mph is a good forward speed,its when they stall that the damage is done.
Yeah true, but if it does not hit the mountains of Hispanola the track probably will remain true.
Same here. Lived through Rita. Anyone who thinks they are macho enough to go through a hurricane, needs to think again.
Well ain’t that something. Looks to be trackin’ right over the beach house. Wife and MIL will run down Thursday and batten the hatches. I got the Sunday cleanup run.
The way the lot sits the home is protected from north winds if the eye goes in around Southport or more east.
Comes in around Holden Beach and we’re toast.
I am hoping that the predicted track continues to shift eastward otherwise it’s a road trip to EI and back on Thursday for me! Ugh.
Now it looks like Floyd (1999).
I can remember driving through Princeville a few months later and seeing the water marks from the Tar River on the white town hall building. A muddy streak 2/3s of the way up the building.
Ominously so. Floyd was devastating to us in SE North Carolina.
present - removing potential projectiles from deck and stowed, will pull sails in and take canvas down later today - here we go - weeeeeeeeee
Hurricane Floyd was preceded by Hurricane Dennis, which set up Floyd’s major flooding by dumping 7 inches in Elizabeth City, 5-8” in Wilmington, 19” on Ocracoke Island, 9.9” in Newport and 13.5” in Southport prior to Floyd’s own heavy rainfall.
Yes, NC really got creamed by Floyd. What I remember from the east coast of Florida is that we did the evac since it was supposed to travel up the coast - but s/he missed us. Floyd stayed about 75 miles offshore, paralleling the coast, and being on the back-side our weather was pleasant. All the people who evacuated said “never again,” the absolute wrong lesson to learn from a near hit. Of course, the Charlie / Frances / Ivan / Jeanne season wised up many.
You mean Houston doesn’t suck enough already?.................
Yeah but you sure get a lot more done when the rain begins.
I’ve always helped neighbors finalize prep and occasionally my own, so I always end of getting wet and sometimes a bit ruffled. :)
From 1996 beginning with Bertha and Fran through 1999 we had several hurricanes come right through our NC-SC border coastal area. We were calling ourselves Hurricane Alley.
As NN mentioned, the successive rains from multiple storms close together really exacerbated the damage from Floyd. After a long drought we’ve just had heavy rains again recently and there’s a lot of surface water that hasn’t run off yet, so if Irene dumps a lot more it’ll be worse this time as well.
Part of the Floyd problem was that it essentially stalled out over the area, IIRC. If nothing else, I’m not hearing any noise about that happening with Irene, so hopefully that will keep the Tar in its banks.
Meanwhile, I’m still hopeful of a ‘miss’ all together: looks like the Hurricane Center itself is now the ‘outlier’, as its track is the MOST westward of all the models I’m looking at. Let’s hope that trend continues.
11 AM advisory out, no change in current intensity, no apparent change in forecast track or intensity, still forecast to hit around Wilmington, NC.
I found it yesterday on the Coconut Telegraph a local left wing nut website from Big Pine Key
It’s a different world down here no doubt, especially the further South you get.
What hurricane is shown in the animated graphic on the Coconut Telegraph site (next to the queerkey link)? It surely doesn’t look like Irene, and its too far north of Hispaniola. It looks like some stock animated gif of the perfect storm. Very deceiving, but then what would we expect from a left wingnut site?
The forecast track now has Irene coming right thru the Philly area on Sunday. We’ve had our rainiest month ever already. If Irene hits here even as a middling tropic storm, the flooding could be epic.
Still 5 full days out from a Philadelphia scenario. Remember, the NHC forecast error swath at 5 days is ~250 miles. Best recommendation is go ahead and fill up your gas tank(s) for car, grill and generator if you have them, get cash, and make a list of tasks for each day from now through Saturday if the risk of a direct hit continues to grow.
Kevin, in your thread from yesterday there was talk about how long it's been since a 'cane came up the Chesapeake Bay.......one of the forecasts is now calling for this one to come up on Sunday.
So much for my plans to spend the weekend in Delaware.
Great idea...if anyone deserves a cat 4, it’s martha’s....lol
I’m pretty far inland. Main problem for me would be power outages and inability to get around from downed trees (like we saw with Isabel in 2003). So I’ll make sure I have canned food and water to last a couple of weeks.
Does this monster potential Cat4 have any chance of turning and hitting our coast directly?
Will we even feel winds, rain....etc.
Or are we totally in the clear?
Just want to know.
Do you have a chainsaw? We consider them another hurricane staple down here. They won't change the direction of the storm, they don't taste as good as chocolate, but they sing a beautiful melody after a nasty storm has passed.
IS the southeast coast of Florida totally, absolutely, positively, no chance of error in the clear?...........................................We should lnow something for sure sometime thursday night!!:>}
Two things to remember:
If the forecast models and storm shift westward, then Florida could potentially be back in play.
This is a large storm. Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward 205 miles from the center. If the storm is 150 miles offshore, then tropical storm force winds are possible.
OFF TOPIC--an earthquake has occurred in Washington D.C. Evacuations occurring from federal government buildings.
Yeah, I have one. Used it this summer when a big honkin maple limb came down in a storm.
No, Floyd didn't stall out over NC -- it came through essentially like a "normal" hurricane....and just like Irene is currently forecast to do. The problem with Floyd was that it followed Dennis... and it was such a big storm.
Here's the Floyd track... looking similar, though Floyd started further north and thus east of the Bahamas.
I do vividly remember that beast chasing me up the coast of Florida as I evacuated my inlaws to Western NC. The evac orders were being issued as I passed every city up to Savannah.
Between that and the earthquake, I think God is trying to say something.
I remember Floyd was still a Category 5 (150mph+) when it was only a hundred miles offshore from us, and then by the Grace of God it dropped dramatically in speed just as it came ashore. Scary times...
Hey, while he's there why doesn't he dispatch the Secret Service in those 40 vehicles and round up all the cash from the rich folk amongst the grape vines? Then again, that's his secret plan isn't it?
Disclaimer: yeah, it is a weather thread but you weren't expect politics on Free Republic???
God is always trying to tell us things... yeah, sometimes he has to yell to get our attention.
That's an understatement of fact
Mine as well throw in my silly ones.....
What do you call a man in the leaves with no arms or legs......Russell
A man in the water with no arms or legs......Bob
In front of a door no arms or legs......Matt
On the wall no arms or legs......Art
We’re still at the tail end of the thing, and we’re still getting WAY more rain than when the bulk of the system went over us yesterday morning. Big system indeed.