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Skip to comments.Hurricane Irene [Now at Cat 3]
Posted on 08/20/2011 4:22:03 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Irene has developed from Invest 97 in the Western Atlantic Ocean, east of the Leeward Islands.
Sea Surface Temps
Stay safe cll,it’s headed to us now.We have a shore place that is rented.They might have to evacuate according to where this lands.We are 2 blocks from the beach.Scary times.
Be careful. Prayers up.
WOW. Just WOW!
Thank goodness for Virginia’s barrier islands. However, I’, still equ-distant from the bays created by them on the Atlantic Coast and the Chesapeake Bay. I’m going to be seriously rethinking my weekend plans.
A Tropical Storm Watch has just been issued for Broward and Palm Beach counties. First watch/warning issued for CONUS so far.
From 5:13pm EDT until further notice.
Do you have a source reference link for this statement? I can only find a reference for a marine advisory. Nothing for land. Thanks.
Sorry no. I get text alerts from mobile.wrh.noa.gov/SMS
While I’m typing this a “Special Hurricane Statement” was just issued for Broward and PBC. It says “high surf and dangerous rip currents” “watches and warnings not in effect” I’m not sure what that means considering the previous text, maybe someone accidentaly hit a button LOL. Any cancellation usualy gets a separate text.
The special statement says: “showers and occasional squals...gusts to 30-40mph in SE FL. Chance of stronger gusts possible in PBC.”
OOPs, sorry about that SMS address:
“iNWS is an experimental service intended for NWS core partners, including emergency managers, community leaders and other government agencies only.”
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST requested
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...Tropical storm watches now in effect for the Atlantic waters off Southeast
Florida. There is no watch in effect for land areas across south Florida...
A tropical storm watch has now been issued for portions of
the South Florida waters. There is no watch in effect anywhere across
mainland South florida.
Models are starting to trend toward the area of NC between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras.
Each run of the forecast models seems to take it farther east. I’m thinking the eye isn’t going to make landfall.
Question for you, my good FRiend:
#1 son is at Myrtle Beach and he e-mailed about some big waves. Is it even possible that the surf could be affected that far away at this time?
Thanks. He’s hoping they can hang in until Friday. Last summer fling before his school begins.
I would hope they would think to do that anyway........
@BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
IRENE EXPLODING! PRESSURE DOWN NEAR 965. NOW A POWER RATING OF 5.5 OUT OF 10 BASTARDI SCALE ( pressure factors into true strength)
14 minutes ago via web
@BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Should deliver hurricane force winds in all states NC to Maine
15 minutes ago via web
I agree about each update taking it further to the east. My whole family is on the northern end of the Outer Banks and in Norfolk, so I’m on pins and needles (I’m outside of Columbia, SC). My brother’s place is right on Currituck Sound.
Any Freeper prayer warriors on this thread, I’d sure appreciate your prayers that this thing turns out to sea, not just for my family but for all those that are in the path.
11PM update should be packed with info. Both NOAA2 and AF302 hunting the hurricane tonight.
Irene is taking a peek at us right now, still headed @ 295. If she don’t turn real soon , Floridians might need a stick and a spoon to clean up with.
I’m calling a perfect buzz saw shape by this time tomorrow.
The NOAA plane actually had found higher winds than the AF plane. She’s back up to Cat 2, at least.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:30Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 0:06Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°3’N 71°56’W (21.05N 71.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 59 miles (94 km) to the WSW (241°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 101kts (From the SSE at ~ 116.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,448m (8,031ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,438m (7,999ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90’s; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:01Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 750mb
Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center...Tropical Storm
force winds extend 205 miles from the storm center.
They must be picking up on something that the others aren't.
Hope they are just *west* outters.
Back to a cat II,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Full Advisory:
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
...Irene continues to strengthen as it pounds the southeastern Bahamas...will likely become a major hurricane later today...
summary of 500 am EDT...0900 UTC...information ---------------------------------------------- location...21.6n 72.9w about 370 mi...595 km se of Nassau about 955 mi...1535 km S of Cape Hatteras North Carolina maximum sustained winds...110 mph...175 km/h present movement...WNW or 295 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/h minimum central pressure...962 mb...28.41 inches -------------
next intermediate advisory...800 am EDT. Next complete advisory...1100 am EDT.
$$ Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain
Good morning NN, been up most of the night watchin the storm. I ate three chilli dogs before I went to bed last night so I been up with a case of indigestion.
I hope you feel better soon! LOL—that ALL CAPS advisory gave me an early case of eye strain this morning!
Last night’s run of GFDL takes the storm smack into NYC.
Sitting here in Southern Shores NC, one block away from the ocean, watching the projected eye of Irene move eastward. Have hurricane shutters ready to go and all loose outside items put away.
Irene is now up to Cat 3 as of the 8AM intermediate advisory.
Are you serious?....I thought we were out of the cone?
Yes, heard it about 20 minutes ago. Checked ‘Skeetobiteweather’ but no change in track. Maybe they mean the Keys.
I told you you would know for sure thursday evening, You thought I was joking?
From NWS AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH HURRICANE IRENE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ALONG THE COAST...THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HAZARDOUS SURF...RIP CURRENTS AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE BEACH EROSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN
SQUALLS OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
South Florida: tropical cyclone watches or warnings are currently not in effect...
nor are they likely under present circumstances. No storm surge impact is
expected across South Florida. Moderate to severe beach erosion will become a
Ocracoke Island NC: Tourists have been ordered to evacuate the island today.
Residents are advised to leave the island tomorrow.
I guess Irene is headed for New York......................
Lot of the models are leaning way out right now, but the way NC sticks out into the Atlantic, it’s hard to miss.
Sure glad granddaughter is in Texas now and not on the NC coast. One left in the mountains, but that way away from the salt water.
If Irene delays her turn north by 12 or 18 hours there are gonna be alot of angry people from Florida on north. I think people rely too much on the models, especialy with a storm of this size and strength. If the models are within a couple hundred miles of your location, 2 days out, I would be very vigilant in my monitoring.
2nd Request: Anxiety levels are understandably running high with this major hurricane. Do not post "official" watch/warning/evacuation information until verified with a separate source. Provide a link to online source information.
It is much more important to wait until you obtain accurate information for this storm than to be the first one to post inaccurate info. Thank you.
Very true. I’ve awakened to the sounds of hammers when the night before the storm was supposed to go “right on by”.
As Momma used to say, hurricane season begins every year on June 1st, there is no reason to not be ready.
Florida is not preparing (from my limited observation) because we are supposedly out of the cone....
..but I just have a bad feeling about this one....(not scientific I know!)
My dad's nursing home has stopped worrying....no evacuation plans....and they can only handle a level 1 hurricane.
I hope these forecasters are as sure as they seem to be.
Lives are counting on it.
This is an interesting graphic showing track change and consumption (not for dialup or weak stolen wireless)
Amen! Yesterday one of the Jacksonville FL stations asked the question “When you will you feel safe that irene won’t hit here?”
... when it has passed us
It’s good to see you are running this- I don’t check in here much since Miss Emily died last summer- just too many old memories.
What The Kid ( her Golden Retriever ) and I are doing now is here:
( Scroll back for more )
My own “Hurricane Prepper” is here:
My kind regards to you, and all.
Gee, that ‘track evolution’ shows that everything from Key West to Boston has been at the center of ‘the cone’ at some point or another in the past week.
This makes that bit of NHC disclaimer about ‘4-5 day tracks averaging 200-250 miles of error’ look optimistic. Good post.
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