Hurricane Irene [Now at Cat 3]

NHC/NOAA ^ | 20 August 2011 | NHC/NOAA

[alancarp]

(Yes, it appears that Dare County has upgraded the evac order to ‘mandatory’ for all residents and visitors alike. That’s the Middle-Upper section of the Outer Banks, plus a peninsula in the Pamlico Sound.)

[Moose4]

And going north is out of the question, it’s not like the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel can handle that much traffic, it’ll be closed when the storm gets close, and all you’re doing then anyway is running up the Delmarva in front of it. It’s I-64/US 60 and US 460 or nothing, pretty much. Maybe US 158 down into NC?

I saw on Twitter where the Navy’s apparently sending the fleet in Norfolk to sea to ride the storm out there. Not surprised, given the forecast changes.

}:-)4

[alancarp]

Ugh - Joe’s guessing a Cat 4/5 storm at landfall near Morehead City.

[gargoyle]

...going north...

...Same scenario. US 460, yea an option. Have a niece in Emporia. A sister and Mom in SC. Fact remains, if your getting out, do it now...

...I'm going to ride it out. Like the Cherokee say, "It's a good day to die"...(-;

[Raebie]

Joe’s smokin crack.

[alancarp]

If I’m evacuating, I’m doing two things for sure:
(a) Making a hotel reservation NOW... credit card guaranteed.
(b) Departing before dawn Friday morning. Traffic will be minimal.

You may want to consider strategies for getting back home, too. First in line may not be a good idea, but last in line may be several days later. I don’t have any good ideas on this.

[AppyPappy]

Maybe 4. That area hasn’t been hammered in a long time and a lot of people put up trailers there. My sister had one in Swannsboro.

[Gabz]

I read it in the Pilot about an hour ago.

Being on Delmarva, I don’t have many options. We’re heading for Dover tomorrow, but will be coming home Saturday instead of Sunday. It’s going to be interesting driving against all the traffic on 13.........

[alancarp]

Joe’s smokin crack.

Maybe - I would be surprised if it's beyond a Cat 3, but I'm already on record as believing he's dead on for that section of the NC coast.

[Moose4]

NHC track map just came out for their 11:00 update...the centerline of their forecast shows a landfall between Morehead City and Ocracoke, track up the inland side of Pamlico Sound, directly over the northern OBX and Virginia Beach, scraping the coastal side of the Delmarva and Philly and New Jersey, then a direct hit on NYC Sunday afternoon. Then it rides up through western MA and the VT/NH border as a tropical storm.

That’s almost a worst-case scenario if it pans out, at least in terms of the number of people affected.

}:-)4

[Raebie]

Which scares the crap out of me because I have 2 kids in school in Wilmington NC.

[dirtboy]

He’s forecasting GUSTS in excess of 140mph, not sustained. Irene’s gust are to 140 now as a 115 mph Cat 3.

[NautiNurse]

Warnings will likely be required for portions of the watch area later today.

The guidance envelope has shifted a little westward on this cycle...
and the new official track has been nudged west as well.

Location ~645 miles S of Cape Hatteras NC, 75 miles NNE of Nassau
Max sustained winds 115 mph, 951mb
Moving NNW at 13 mph

Hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles from the
storm center.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[dirtboy]

The guidance envelope has shifted a little westward on this cycle... and the new official track has been nudged west as well.

Very bad news.

[who knows what evil?]

This is getting interesting...although the paths aren't similar; if Irene follows the path Bastardi predicts; are we looking at Agnes-level destruction?

OMG.

[dfwgator]

And any little thing that goes wrong, I’m going to blame Obama, just like the lefties blamed Bush for Katrina.

[Gabz]

That is not good news.

[dirtboy]

That’s almost a worst-case scenario if it pans out, at least in terms of the number of people affected.

And an insurance nightmare, given the number of coastal communities affected. The insurance industry is already reeling from all the tornado damage earlier in the year.

[dirtboy]

if Irene follows the path Bastardi predicts; are we looking at Agnes-level destruction?

Try Hazel. And there is vastly more coastal development now than in 1954 when Hazel hit.

I think Bastardi is projecting the westward trend of the forecast track over the last 18 hours into his final track forecast.

[alancarp]

I have to respectfully disagree: here is an exact quote tweet from him this morning... with some explanatory edits required:

"Storm should deepen to near 925 mbby [sic] Sat am.DO NOT BE FOOLED BY THEM [Nat Hurr Center] CUTTING WIND TO 115, the prs [pressure] is down(drives me nuts when they do that)."

Now: you can believe him or not -- but that's not my point here. He is nonetheless forecasting a 925 mb hurricane, which is well into the Cat 4 range, so 140 sustained winds are consistent with that forecast... I believe that's what he's expecting.

One Clarification: My post #463 attributed 'Cat 4/5' to Joe based on this -- that's an error on my part as I forgot that Cat 5 begins at 156mph. My bad.