Hurricane Irene [Now at Cat 3]

NHC/NOAA ^ | 20 August 2011 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

It's always a tad more pleasant to perform hurricane prep chores when the weather is nice. Waiting until the wind and rain kicks up can be a major pain.

:o)

[NonValueAdded]

Yes, NC really got creamed by Floyd. What I remember from the east coast of Florida is that we did the evac since it was supposed to travel up the coast - but s/he missed us. Floyd stayed about 75 miles offshore, paralleling the coast, and being on the back-side our weather was pleasant. All the people who evacuated said “never again,” the absolute wrong lesson to learn from a near hit. Of course, the Charlie / Frances / Ivan / Jeanne season wised up many.

[Red Badger]

You mean Houston doesn’t suck enough already?.................

[SouthTexas]

Yeah but you sure get a lot more done when the rain begins.

I’ve always helped neighbors finalize prep and occasionally my own, so I always end of getting wet and sometimes a bit ruffled. :)

[tarheelswamprat]

From 1996 beginning with Bertha and Fran through 1999 we had several hurricanes come right through our NC-SC border coastal area. We were calling ourselves Hurricane Alley.

As NN mentioned, the successive rains from multiple storms close together really exacerbated the damage from Floyd. After a long drought we’ve just had heavy rains again recently and there’s a lot of surface water that hasn’t run off yet, so if Irene dumps a lot more it’ll be worse this time as well.

[alancarp]

Part of the Floyd problem was that it essentially stalled out over the area, IIRC. If nothing else, I’m not hearing any noise about that happening with Irene, so hopefully that will keep the Tar in its banks.

Meanwhile, I’m still hopeful of a ‘miss’ all together: looks like the Hurricane Center itself is now the ‘outlier’, as its track is the MOST westward of all the models I’m looking at. Let’s hope that trend continues.

[Liberty Valance]

bump

[dirtboy]

11 AM advisory out, no change in current intensity, no apparent change in forecast track or intensity, still forecast to hit around Wilmington, NC.

[Elle Bee]

OK it's not politically correct but this is a pretty comprehensive Caribbean weather site:

http://queerkey.com/

I found it yesterday on the Coconut Telegraph a local left wing nut website from Big Pine Key

.

[rodguy911]

It’s a different world down here no doubt, especially the further South you get.

[NautiNurse]

What hurricane is shown in the animated graphic on the Coconut Telegraph site (next to the queerkey link)? It surely doesn’t look like Irene, and its too far north of Hispaniola. It looks like some stock animated gif of the perfect storm. Very deceiving, but then what would we expect from a left wingnut site?

[dirtboy]

The forecast track now has Irene coming right thru the Philly area on Sunday. We’ve had our rainiest month ever already. If Irene hits here even as a middling tropic storm, the flooding could be epic.

[NautiNurse]

Still 5 full days out from a Philadelphia scenario. Remember, the NHC forecast error swath at 5 days is ~250 miles. Best recommendation is go ahead and fill up your gas tank(s) for car, grill and generator if you have them, get cash, and make a list of tasks for each day from now through Saturday if the risk of a direct hit continues to grow.

[Gabz]

Visitors ordered to evacuate N.C.'s Ocracoke Island

Kevin, in your thread from yesterday there was talk about how long it's been since a 'cane came up the Chesapeake Bay.......one of the forecasts is now calling for this one to come up on Sunday.

So much for my plans to spend the weekend in Delaware.

[Fawn]

Great idea...if anyone deserves a cat 4, it’s martha’s....lol

[dirtboy]

I’m pretty far inland. Main problem for me would be power outages and inability to get around from downed trees (like we saw with Isabel in 2003). So I’ll make sure I have canned food and water to last a couple of weeks.

[Guenevere]

IS the southeast coast of Florida totally, absolutely, positively, no chance of error in the clear?

Does this monster potential Cat4 have any chance of turning and hitting our coast directly?

Will we even feel winds, rain....etc.

Or are we totally in the clear?

Just want to know.

[NautiNurse]

Main problem for me would be power outages and inability to get around from downed trees

Do you have a chainsaw? We consider them another hurricane staple down here. They won't change the direction of the storm, they don't taste as good as chocolate, but they sing a beautiful melody after a nasty storm has passed.

[eastforker]

IS the southeast coast of Florida totally, absolutely, positively, no chance of error in the clear?...........................................We should lnow something for sure sometime thursday night!!:>}

[NautiNurse]

All of Florida is out of the Cone of Uncertainty this afternoon.

Two things to remember:

If the forecast models and storm shift westward, then Florida could potentially be back in play.

This is a large storm. Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward 205 miles from the center. If the storm is 150 miles offshore, then tropical storm force winds are possible.

OFF TOPIC--an earthquake has occurred in Washington D.C. Evacuations occurring from federal government buildings.