Skip to comments.Sarah Palin Has Until Late December to Jump In, and Still Win
Posted on 09/25/2011 7:52:21 PM PDT by Freepmanchew
As I watch the Republican presidential debates, I must admit that we have a great field of candidates running, and if the reports about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie getting into the race are true, then things will only get more interesting. It is a great field of candidates because America is finally getting a chance to see how truly diverse the Republican party is. After all, take a look at the Democrat party. All you will find is a who's who of the anti-American, communist-reject society.
Although I must admit that there is one person missing from the debate stage, and her absence has left many wondering why. I do know that she is of the belief that times have changed, and that Obama and the Democrats are so toxic that she could enter the race as late as November, or even late December, and still be the one to beat. Recent polls taken of just the conservative base in the Republican party prove her right. She is still the one to beat, and that has the rest of the field a little uneasy, and you can bet that Sarah is on their minds.
When Rick Perry jumped in many were claiming it's all over, but since then he has slipped. Since she won the Iowa straw poll, Michele Bachmann has slipped a bit. Rick Perry even attempted to lock up the Christian right vote before he jumped in, but Sarah Palin is still the choice of over 80% of the Christian conservatives. And guess who will show up en masse if she enters the race? You got it, the conservative Christian base. That is why the country-club Republicans keep touting Romney, or begging
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Not sure what it means outside of internet name searching, but the author ties it into Sarah's chances of winning.
At one point it went like this:
"Sarah Palin? She waited too long! It's summertime already! She missed the window, and now it's too late to enter the race."
"What's that? Rick Perry? Rick Perry is entering the race? That is exciting news! This will really shake things up!!"
Then it became:
"Sarah Palin? She waited too long! It's Sept already! She missed the window, and now it's too late to enter the race."
"What's that? Chris Christie? Chris Christie is re-thinking the race? He might get in?? Wow! That will really shake things up!!"
Sarah is held to a unique standard, because the Establishment fears her.
I think she is one smart cookie to be sitting by as the current candidates destroy each other.
One thing I like about the four candidates who are my favorites, and Sarah herself although she has not declared, is that they all see Obama as the target, and not one another. Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum all have their eyes on stopping Obama, while Huntsman, Perry, and Romney see their fellow Repubs as the main threat.
Between Sarah and the four I named, Bachmann Cain Gingrich and Santorum, I would be proud to have any one of them as my president. As for the others, not so much. But compared to the O, even the weakest and weirdest of them are giants. I'll vote for them if I have to, in fact I'd support any name picked at random from the phone book ahead of the fruitcake presently occupying the White House
This idiot must not have heard about filing deadlines. They start expiring at the end of October.
How comforting is it to have Google trending for anyone on our side? There is Herman Cain about to rise in the polling
who is the only candidate on the planet that can unite the conservative base, burdened as they are with those who will never vote for Palin and those who will never vote for Perry. If Cain should budge those poll numbers enough to threaten Obama like he did in the Florida straw poll he will soon be deserving of some loyalty for his herculean effort at campaigning. Palin’s minions among Cain supporters may not be so willing to dump him over and leave
him. There are ways he trumps her on grasp and experience with economics and jobs, which suits the times and the mood of the electorate, and he’s apparently a baggage free candidate which is a huge plus.
I respectfully disagree with the premise. If she seriously wants to run (and I’m not sure that she does), I think she needs to jump in within the next few weeks or so, or her window for being considered a serious candidate will be gone.
Yes, but I tend to agree that she needs to jump in at least a couple weeks before the first primary. Don’t you?
I have a friend who thinks she can wait till after the New Hampshire primary even, and still be the top dog to beat.
Yes, 2012 is not the time to sit out for ones principles.
The author fails to mention deadlines for being on the ballot in Florida,Utah and I believe SC.
Unless there is something I am missing, she needs to have her name on the ballot in Utah and Florida in October
If Palin was running she had to jump in a few weeks ago. She has missed too many debates because she is afraid of coming off bad in them. Her time has passed but she can run in 2016 or 2020 I suppose
I think she’s waiting to be drafted at the Convention.
Love the graphic and column. Thank you.
Oct. 31, Florida
Nov. 1, South Carolina
Nov. 18, New Hampshire
I'd prefer either Palin or Cain but I have reached that point too.
She’d better be careful about waiting until the last minute.
All it takes is one minor clerical error to screw things up.
She loses nothing by waiting. If she jumps in, the landscape will reshape itself anyway and meanwhile, in all likelihood several candidates will have run out of money and dropped out.
Doesn’t Colorado have some crazy requirement for registration too?
re: filing deadlines 10/31 and beyond...
Exactly. Anyone saying she can get in beyond 10/31 I’d be suspicious of wanting her demise. The bottom line, though, is Sarah and her team are so far playing their cards correctly, IMHO, and plan her entry sometime prior to 10/31.
Sarah Palin is the most authentic outsider Republican candidate with the best name recognition and best chance of beating Obama.
There are some other apparent outsiders like Bachmann and Cain who don’t have that strength.
And then there’s the fake outsider who’s linked to the Washington political machine, Rick Santorum.
“Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum all have their eyes on stopping Obama”
you mean just Cain and Gingrich. Bachmann is still focused on gardasil and Santorum doesn’t know when to quit after he makes a good point.
Echoing your surprise here. I'm not sure what sort of logic or calculus the author is using, if he allows that Palin could miss three or four state primary votes and STILL come out ahead.
I know she's got mega support across the country, but that much? I dunno.
I suppose anything's possible, but Sarah would have to have nerves of gold plated titanium, if she were to pull off that sort of miracle. Has any candidate ever skipped a few early states, then gone on to win their party's nomination?
“There is Herman Cain about to rise in the polling
who is the only candidate on the planet that can unite the conservative base, burdened as they are with those who will never vote for Palin and those who will never vote for Perry.”
let alone Romney who has a major ceiling
I like Palin and Cain best of the ones I named. Gingrich would be a great advisor. I like Bachmann and Santorum a lot but Palin and Cain are my favorites. Since Palin isn't technically in it yet, I suppose that means I'm leaning Cain right now. But if its any one of the four-plus-Palin, I'll be happy.
“Echoing your surprise here. I’m not sure what sort of logic or calculus the author is using, if he allows that Palin could miss three or four state primary votes and STILL come out ahead.”
It’s part of that ‘unconventional’ campaign strategy.
Disappointing analysis. I am all in for Palin, but with a title like that I was expecting some interesting alternative primary strategies, and there were none. I don’t know how you could come in after missing those early deadlines and still end up with enough delegates to win. Not saying it can’t be done. I just don’t see how it could work. Illinois requires thousands of signatures, all have to be ready to turn in by end of November, so really you have to start mid Octoberish. Second ballot at the convention has been floated, but the real odds of that working are not unlike the odds of the Bears making a successful onside kick. Just sayin ...
You mean the 5% PDS crowd and the Democrats? Who needs 'em?
I don’t think so.. Also if she enters late beyond Florida, New Hampshire, and the other early primaries, she will tick off the people from those states.
Gimme some o' dat, whut yur smokin....
Not even the most devoted Palin supporters can hold out that long. Me included.
I would still prefer November 13 for the symbolism
Correct, but may I put a bit of analysis to the Palin strategy? Palin first is a patriot of this nation. If she thinks a true conservative i.e. Bachman, Cain etc. can win the nomination and the general election she will not enter the race. The two key words are conservative and electable. If we have a candidate such as this, Palin will tease the media and draw their fire. So long as they are attacking Palin and not another conservative this is good and helps the conservative cause.
Bottom line is this, she will run if a true conservative is not the apparent nominee, If a true conservative is the nominee she will tease the media as long as possible to draw there fire to her. Palin loves the USA and is a patriot. That is the reason the Main Stream Media will never understand who Palin isl
I think Palin's been around the block enough times to be acutely aware of that. She won't time her announcement that late.
You Palinbots are stupid. The key for this election is to get at least 4% of the people who voted for Obama. Basically we need the moderate Dems and the indies.. Of course idiots like you think if Sarah wins the primary that is it..
She's on record as saying that she'll have to let everyone know what her intentions are in late September - early October. Now that she's been mum about what she's doing this long, it's a virtual certainty that she'll announce her bid for the nomination shortly.
Heh....don't you just wish.
If she finally decides to run (I sort of doubt it), she needs to have an agenda to run on and fight for. She’s been spending all of her time so far defending herself as a person. Her short record as AK governor is going to come up again though, although much of the public may have forgotten about that already!
Would be nice, but getting in the Florida primary is a lot more important.
Who runs the party's convention?
How likely is it that the Establishment will let a Draft Palin movement develop?
If Palin is dumb enough to leave her fate in the hands of the GOP Establishment, she has no business being President.
She's a smart cookie, though. Ergo, if she's going to be a candidate, she will be a candidate well in advance of the Convention.
Not only that, but there would be no upside to passing one or more early deadlines. You could speculate that the reasons for waiting till the last minute (saves money, ammo, plays the media) might apply for a primary or two and worth the loss of delegates. But, that is a real stretch for me. She'll enter next week most likely.
But the Obama campaign will bring it up..
Palin Cain or Cain Palin but I would perfer Cain Palin.
“Gingrich would be a great advisor” That is correct but I have a few problems with his position on Global Warming. Gingrich is an intllect of great standing. Gingrich is a total novice when it comes to science. He either does not understand it or worse yet has taken a political stand verses real science.
If I were President I would welcome Gingrich in my circle of advisors in respect to politics and economics and history. I would not let Newt get any place close to science, as he does not understand real science and the methodology of it.
Extra points for using intelligent persuasion, reason, and logic to bring us Palin supporters over to your way of thinking.
Stupid? Idiots? You just lost whatever argument you were trying to make, pal.
And by the way, Palin's support among Independents has leaped in the last month, or haven't you been following the news?
The system today is a lot different with primaries everywhere and some caucuses mixed in.
Back in the 1960’s only a handful of states held primaries and only some of those had delegate selection linked to the primary vote.
The back rooms of local political power held the keys to being a presidential nominee.
Heck, the old tradition was for a candidate to not announce while his supporters lined up support in backrooms or ran him in the handful of states like New Hampshire or Wisconsin that held primaries.
The candidate would or could wait until close to the convention to announce.
I like this writer's optimism! I agree completely!
And what about UTAH? I read that Utah is Oct 14 or 15?
Try to keep up, noob, and put away the lame Democrat talking points. They won't fly amongst informed Freepers.
Go back and review what Palin's actually been up to over the last two years before you think of posting such rubbish again.
Wait ‘til you move on down thread to #92. I already discussed the “who needs ‘em”. LOL.