BREAKING: South Carolina to hold primary on January 21 (Thank you Florida)

CNN ^ | 10/03/2011 | Peter Hamby

[EDINVA]

No, it’s IA caucuses, then NH, then SC (and I really haven’t paid attention to NV to be honest, but they hold caucuses and I THINK they follow SC). All are within maybe 10 days of the other.

IMO, IA doesn’t mean much, nor any longer does NH. At least for the GOP. NH was once upon a time, THE defining primary. Now, not so much. At best, those two ‘winnow out’ candidates, but don’t establish them.

If you recall, in 2000, SC was THE defining primary in the GOP contest; in 2008 it was FL. These things fluctuate. I thought FL’s moving their date forward was a less than brilliant a move. The defining primary will fluctuate, as the Dem primaries/caucuses in ‘08 showed.

This contest to be first and forever moving the dates forward can backfire if their intent is to have a serious impact. On the other hand, if their purpose is to bring $$$ to the state by the candidates’ campaigns, the media, etc., then maybe an early primary/caucus makes sense. Tourism must be down in FL this year ;)

This year, because the RNC delegate selection rules have changed, and it’s no longer ‘winner take all,’ the date by which whomever turns out to be the nominee achieves the required number of delegates will be a LOT later. Some anticipate the process will go through the primaries/caucuses in May. Gonna be one long slog.