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The Hot New Theory About What Happened To The US Economy (Everything Is Okay Now)
TBI ^ | 10-8-2011 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 10/08/2011 5:13:45 AM PDT by blam

The Hot New Theory About What Happened To The US Economy

Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 8, 2011, 6:27 AM

Something weird is happening with the economic data in September: It's okay!

Datapoint after datapoint screams: The economy is mediocre, but it's not collapsing.

For example...

* The September jobs report was a lot better than the August jobs report.

* Rail traffic is growing.

* Car sales were downright HOT in September.

* Retail sales? Check.

* Construction spending was fine too.

There was certainly some weak data, as things are not amazing, but the numbers haven't been heart-stopping the way some of the August numbers were (like that goose-egg jobs report, which later got revised higher).

So what's going on?

One theory that's clearly pretty hot: The economy this summer suffered a confidence shock with the debt ceiling crisis, causing an artificial slowdown.

There's a basis for this. A poll showed that the whole fiasco hit consumer confidence in the same way as Katrina and 9/11 did.

This table from Calculated Risk shows what, historically, how long it's taken to rebound from external shocks in consumer confidence.

Event Driven Declines in Consumer Sentiment

(Go to the site to view the chart)

So this is the hot new meme: The economy is okay, but we had a damaging freakout at an inopportune time but now we're recovering (knock on wood, anyway).

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: confidence; economy; recession; recovery
I've been saying, everything is okay.

Vote For Obama.

1 posted on 10/08/2011 5:13:48 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
The most recent data (Yesterday) from the reputable ECRI says otherwise:

ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Declines Further ("You Haven't Seen Anything Yet")

2 posted on 10/08/2011 5:19:04 AM PDT by blam ((Deliberate Cruelty Is The Worst Of Human Offenses - Kenko))
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To: blam

This article must have been written by graduates of the “Debbie Wasserman-Schultz College of Economics”.


3 posted on 10/08/2011 5:20:25 AM PDT by radioone ("2012 can't come soon enough")
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To: blam

The economy is fine! There is no recession! We have everything under control!...........

4 posted on 10/08/2011 5:21:42 AM PDT by Red Badger (Furthermore, I think Obama must be impeached....................)
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To: blam
This interesting, too......

Baltic Dry Index Reaches 2011 High as Panamax Ship Rents Gain

...but, as usual, the devil is in the details.

5 posted on 10/08/2011 5:22:52 AM PDT by mewzilla (Forget a third party. We need a second one.)
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To: blam
I have never heard of returning striking workers being added to the employment numbers to fluff it. Is this something new?
6 posted on 10/08/2011 5:25:41 AM PDT by Perdogg (I would vote for Pawnstar Chumlee, before I would vote for 0bama)
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To: blam

LOL! I’ve seen people routinely eviscerated at staff meetings for using hollow and meaningless descriptors like “growing”, “HOT”, “fine” and “check” in their management briefings.


7 posted on 10/08/2011 5:28:48 AM PDT by PowderMonkey (WILL WORK FOR AMMO)
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To: blam

For a long time, I actually hoped the economy would improve in spite of Obama, but I guess we all know how that hope crap really works.

I’m guessing the economy will start turning around late next year when it becomes obvious we’ll have both houses and the presidency.


8 posted on 10/08/2011 5:31:11 AM PDT by umgud
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To: Perdogg
If I may, from the BLS....

Current Employment Statistics FAQs

9 posted on 10/08/2011 5:32:12 AM PDT by mewzilla (Forget a third party. We need a second one.)
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To: PowderMonkey
LOL! I’ve seen people routinely eviscerated at staff meetings for using hollow and meaningless descriptors like “growing”, “HOT”, “fine” and “check” in their management briefings.

Not ONE of those words is used in MY management briefing: Our firm has exhibited leadership by enhancing the facilitation of synergystic, scalable core-competancy paradigm-shifts vis-a-vis the most granular service point of difference, empowering the ongoing assurance of the product architecture being functionally equivalent and parallel to the longitudinal business-practice shift postulated by the use of mission-critical management dialogue technology on a go-forward basis, in accordance with ISO-9001:2008 standards

10 posted on 10/08/2011 5:35:12 AM PDT by Lazamataz ("If Herman Cain does become President, his Vice President will be known as Co-Cain." -- Laz, 2011)
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To: blam

September? The stores are putting out their Christmas stuff, the Auto industry is coming out with new model cars, the 2011 models are being reduced. Surprise! Jobs and Car sales are up. Duuuuh.


11 posted on 10/08/2011 5:35:38 AM PDT by Bringbackthedraft (Palin/Cain, Cain/West, Palin/ West, Cain /Palin, Palin/ Rubio, Cain/Rubio, = all good)
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To: blam

The peeps espousing this stuff always seem to forget a little thing called “math,” don’t they? What will they say when the proverbial fecal matter hits the oscillating rotary device? It was “unexpected?” Silly rabbits.


12 posted on 10/08/2011 5:38:11 AM PDT by sayuncledave (et Verbum caro factum est)
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To: Lazamataz

Dang...I stand in awe. Mind if I borrow that for my next briefing?


13 posted on 10/08/2011 5:39:06 AM PDT by PowderMonkey (WILL WORK FOR AMMO)
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To: Perdogg
I had no idea you could just leave your job because you wanted more money,collect unemployment and then come back to the same job.
14 posted on 10/08/2011 5:39:25 AM PDT by linn37
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To: PowderMonkey

You can use it. You won’t be dinged for using the four forbidden words, and everyone will STILL be befuddled. Win/Win.


15 posted on 10/08/2011 5:41:00 AM PDT by Lazamataz ("If Herman Cain does become President, his Vice President will be known as Co-Cain." -- Laz, 2011)
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To: Lazamataz

A couple of more buzzwords, and soon you will be CEO!.


16 posted on 10/08/2011 5:41:43 AM PDT by factoryrat (We are the producers, the creators. Grow it, mine it, build it.)
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To: Lazamataz

Haha — and don’t forget to “leverage the low-hanging fruit going forward.” :-D


17 posted on 10/08/2011 5:43:51 AM PDT by hemogoblin
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To: Red Badger
Zer0 knows what he is doing, and he's not going to change course with his economy. We'll see his sustained propaganda and lies until election eve.

The game played by the Marxists is war where the end justifies the means. No matter how it's dressed up, it's an assault on America's freedom.

The winning rule in 2012: a direct and non-stop political attack on Obama's record!

USS Drydocked
 Obama -- My policies are based on a robust economic model: A big sinking ship raises the water level
 for smaller ships. Millionaires don't have a right to keep any of their hard-earned cash. At a certain
 point you've made enough money. And trade in that gas-guzzling SUV.

Countdown until Zer0 leaves Office: 470 days as of October 7, 2011.

18 posted on 10/08/2011 5:48:07 AM PDT by BobP (The piss-stream media - Never to be watched again in my house)
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To: Lazamataz
Your next mission, should you choose to accept, is to infiltrate the DNC national convention: DoubleTalk
19 posted on 10/08/2011 5:51:42 AM PDT by PowderMonkey (WILL WORK FOR AMMO)
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To: Lazamataz; PowderMonkey
Our firm has exhibited leadership by enhancing the facilitation of synergystic, scalable core-competancy paradigm-shifts vis-a-vis the most granular service point of difference, empowering the ongoing assurance of the product architecture being functionally equivalent and parallel to the longitudinal business-practice shift postulated by the use of mission-critical management dialogue technology on a go-forward basis, in accordance with ISO-9001:2008 standards

I'd love to have seen Richard Mitchell's take on the quote above.


20 posted on 10/08/2011 5:57:10 AM PDT by aruanan
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To: blam

Mail volume increased 3%. Changes of as little as .1% are SERIOUS ~


21 posted on 10/08/2011 6:14:42 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: blam

IMHO....there’s some truth to this. There are still Americans that can get by, make a buck and have a close enough to good life DESPITE the idiots in Washington that our economy is limping along. We are barely out of the last recession, but things are probably not going to crash and burn. That is NOT to say we are doing well, or that 4 more years of the big 0 won’t be enough to send us over the cliff. The best analogy I can come up with is from a Monty Python movie, where our economy is the guy yelling “I’m not quite dead yet”...and Barry is the son trying to toss us on the wagon.


22 posted on 10/08/2011 6:17:59 AM PDT by jdsteel (Cain vs. Not Able.......now that Sarah's out.)
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To: PowderMonkey
"LOL! I’ve seen people routinely eviscerated at staff meetings for using hollow and meaningless descriptors like “growing”, “HOT”, “fine” and “check” in their management briefings."

Yup. I once had an engineer describe to me something being 'dead-nuts-on'. I couldn't help myself, I laughed out loud. (A good engineer always has a number, +-)

23 posted on 10/08/2011 6:23:31 AM PDT by blam ((Deliberate Cruelty Is The Worst Of Human Offenses - Kenko))
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To: Lazamataz
I was about to say That's nothing but Yak Squeeze! until I got to "in accordance with ISO-9001:2008 standards".
Well...ok, then. That's more like it. Good to finally hear some straight talk!
24 posted on 10/08/2011 6:24:31 AM PDT by GBA (The Constitution and conservatism must win in 2012!)
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To: Lazamataz

ISO ~ my eyes glaze over.


25 posted on 10/08/2011 6:25:45 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Perdogg
I have never heard of returning striking workers being added to the employment numbers to fluff it. Is this something new?

The BLS collects two sets of data:
.one from individuals - the Household Survey;
.one from employers - the Payroll Survey or Establishment Data

The data from the Household Survey is generally considered more accurate and is used to get the unemployment rate. It counts the number of people working. The establishment data counts the number of jobs, not people working; one person can hold multiple jobs.

The introduction to the BLS monthly empsit (Employment Situation Summary) mixes data from both sources.

The 45,000 striking workers are reflected in the Establishment data which reports +103,000 payroll jobs.
26 posted on 10/08/2011 6:27:01 AM PDT by algernonpj (He who pays the piper . . .)
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To: mewzilla
FEDEX CEO: There Will Be No Recession
27 posted on 10/08/2011 6:32:36 AM PDT by blam ((Deliberate Cruelty Is The Worst Of Human Offenses - Kenko))
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To: blam

NEVERMIND!
28 posted on 10/08/2011 6:35:33 AM PDT by texas_mrs (Heartless Conservative & Native Texan)
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To: blam
Place: North Atlantic.
Year: 1912
Date: April 15
Time: Ten minutes after striking an iceberg.
First Mate: "Captain, I have good news and bad news."
Captain: "What's the bad news?"
First Mate: "We struck an iceberg."
Captain: "The good news?"
First Mate: "We're still afloat."
29 posted on 10/08/2011 6:39:43 AM PDT by behzinlea
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To: hemogoblin

Oh dear Lord. “Low hanging fruit” is the current buzz phrase in my office. You’d think I we all worked in an orchard.


30 posted on 10/08/2011 6:49:38 AM PDT by 6SJ7 (46 55 42 4f)
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To: blam

It’s not that there is a shortage of jobs, it’s more like there are too many people.

We need a program to reduce the number of people so that it matches the number of jobs. (/libtard think)


31 posted on 10/08/2011 7:04:36 AM PDT by CPOSharky (The only thing straight, white, Christian males get is the blame for everything.)
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To: Lazamataz

LOL! May I use that beautiful multi-syllabic monstrosity in my next memo?

One of the small pleasures I allow myself at work is to edit out all the cheerleading pom-pom waving boilerplate and b/s that infest the management memos which cascade into my office email every day.

The length of any given memo is usually reduced by 40-50 pct.


32 posted on 10/08/2011 7:31:32 AM PDT by Senator John Blutarski
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To: blam

The calm before the storm.

A very big storm.


33 posted on 10/08/2011 7:34:54 AM PDT by exit82 (Democrats are the enemies of freedom.)
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To: exit82
"The calm before the storm."

"A very big storm."

Yup...that's what many are saying.

Now, many are saying that were are already in a recovery and that things will be fine.

How can these opinions be so far apart?

34 posted on 10/08/2011 10:36:36 AM PDT by blam ((Deliberate Cruelty Is The Worst Of Human Offenses - Kenko))
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To: blam
How can these opinions be so far apart?

Because one is the truth, and one is wishful thinking.

The economic fundamentals have not changed, either here or in Europe.

The dollar bubble and the government debt bubble are going to pop. And when they do, and the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency and no one wants to buy our Treasuries, we are screwed.

35 posted on 10/08/2011 10:48:30 AM PDT by exit82 (Democrats are the enemies of freedom.)
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To: blam
Weekly Indicators: no recession in these numbers edition
36 posted on 10/08/2011 10:48:54 AM PDT by blam ((Deliberate Cruelty Is The Worst Of Human Offenses - Kenko))
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