I’m in the camp of “it won’t get out of Congress.”
Anyone who has looked at the Congress in the last 20 years knows why it won’t get out of Congress.
Simplifying the tax code strips Congress of their power.
Look at what happened after the Reagan tax reform of ‘86. We crushed the layer cake of brackets, got rid of dozens of cherished deductions and tax shelters in the code.
In the next 20 years, Congress sold their ability to put those back in to the highest bidders.
Selling tax code changes is 80% of the business of Congress and is the real source of their power.
Before the creation of the IRC, Congress wasn’t in session anywhere nearly as much per year as they are now.
The only way this plan gets through the Congress is a POTUS has to declare martial law, use the Marines to imprison all of Congress, pass it by fiat and get the country operating on it for two full tax years before releasing Congress from prison. Once people become accustomed to the reduction in paperwork and have sorted out the changes, they’d prefer that to the amount of money and time spent dealing with the current tax code, even if they’re paying some more.
In 2010 Congress got a strong message from we the people, I suspect in 2012 it will be stronger..those in Congress who survive 2012 will probably be running for the Cain Train to hop aboard...and not be left behind. Think sea change.
I’m hoping that he wins in 2012 and shames Congress into passing it. I know it will go against everything Congress stands for since it will strip their power away. Let’s face it, Congress derives power from concocting these tax loopholes.
Im in the camp of it wont get out of Congress.
Consider the situation:
(1) America elects a non-politician who runs on the promise of enacting a specifc tax reform plan.
(2)Congress refuses to enact his plan.
What would the 2014 congressional elections look like?
The patience of the American people has run out with politicians. It has simply run out. If #1 & #2 came to pass, I would expect the 2014 elections to be a bloodbath for Republicans. Literally guys that had been there 20 years would get kicked out.
Something would pass. Whether it would be exactly 999, I don't know. But politicians are about saving their hide before saving their power.