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Herman Cain, Outlier
The New Yo9rk Times ^ | 27 Oct 2011 | NATE SILVER

Posted on 10/27/2011 4:38:21 PM PDT by mandaladon

Herman Cain, the Georgia businessman who has never held elected office, is tied for the lead in national polls of Republican voters — or perhaps even slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, as he was in Tuesday night’s New York Times/CBS News poll. Mr. Cain has also led in most recent polls of the Iowa caucuses and the South Carolina primary, has taken the lead in Ohio, and is close to Mr. Romney in Florida. If all you had to go on was the polls, you might think that Mr. Cain was the favorite to win the Republican nomination.

But then there are the nonpolling factors, some of which can be objectively measured and some of which cannot, but which would generally point toward Mr. Cain as being a second- or third-tier candidate. Mr. Cain has no endorsements from Republican members of Congress or Republican governors, and very few from officials in key early voting states. He has raised very little money. He has not hired well-known names for his campaign staff. He does not have traditional credentials. He has run for elected office just once before. He has begun to get a fair amount of media coverage, but the tenor of it has been fairly skeptical. His campaign commercials have been … interesting.

Has there ever been a candidate with such strong polling but such weak fundamentals? Almost certainly not, at least not at this relatively advanced stage of the race.

I’m working on a project that tries to assign grades to each of the Republican candidates in a wide variety of categories. Most of these, like polling numbers and establishment support (as measured through endorsements) can be quantified in some way, but a few like debating skill are more subjective.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cain
But I do know what an analyst should not do: he should not use terms like “never” and “no chance” when applied to Mr. Cain’s chances of winning the nomination, as many analysts have.....................Cain's got his opponents going nuts.
1 posted on 10/27/2011 4:38:21 PM PDT by mandaladon
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To: mandaladon
In the end, the only endorsement that will matter in terms of his winning office is the endorsement of the coters. If enough vote for him, he will win and take office.

What the politically connected/insiders/ are having a difficult time with is the fact that the people like and trust this man. That is what is fueling his campaign. As long as the people continue to do that...they will not be able to deflect or stop him.

Despite inexperience as a politician (which many of us count as a positive), people know he has been very successful as a hands on businessman with large companies. They also know he is plain spoken and a moral man, as in traditional morals. They trust him to get in there and use those qualities to solve problems for Americans.

Again, as long as enough of us retain that trust...they will not be able to stop him.


2 posted on 10/27/2011 4:48:14 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: mandaladon

Yeah, and now the NYT has fallen into the habit of making up it’s own news, fashioned out of pure wishful fairy gauze!

Herman Cain has never been a quitter. The stupid media says no, and Mr. Cain will come back with a strong YES every time! Go Herman Cain!


3 posted on 10/27/2011 4:50:13 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( llike Herman Cain)
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To: mandaladon

From Wiki on Nate Silver (and he was Pablano at KOS)

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 0.9%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.
___________________________________________________
We should keep an eye on him;)


4 posted on 10/27/2011 4:51:51 PM PDT by sodpoodle (Cain - touching the better angels of our nature. Newt - knowledge is power.)
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To: mandaladon

Vote “Cain For President” and get your next large Godfathers pizza for only $9.99!!


5 posted on 10/27/2011 4:52:36 PM PDT by Sir Lurks Alot
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To: mandaladon
He has begun to get a fair amount of media coverage, but the tenor of it has been fairly skeptical.

He's gotten a fair amount of worship at FR too, and I'm fairly skeptical. However, he's better than Romney. Joe Isuzu is too.

6 posted on 10/27/2011 4:54:51 PM PDT by Lady Lucky (Somebody please hit the reset button on the American experiment.)
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To: Jeff Head

You said it very well. Cain exudes an optimistic can-do spirit coupled w a passionate love of everything that makes this country great. He is the man of the hour, and the people will see that long before the pundits ever do.


7 posted on 10/27/2011 4:57:13 PM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: sodpoodle
Frankly, I think it is quite arrogant to say that the man leading in the polls two months before Iowa has no chance, especially given that there is a long history in politics and other fields of experts being overconfident when they make predictions..................Arrogant like BOR, Rove, Hume and other liberals fools.
8 posted on 10/27/2011 5:02:07 PM PDT by mandaladon (PalinGenesis)
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To: mandaladon

Outlier = Leading From The Front.


9 posted on 10/27/2011 5:04:41 PM PDT by TADSLOS (Rick Perry engages in corporate welfare via Texas TEF/ETF)
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To: Fantasywriter
While I generally think we have some of the very best in the nation, I am getting extremely annoyed with the conservative Talk Radio heads here in Milwaukee....(Belling, Sykes, Weber, and even Vickie McKenna) all of whom are referring to Herman Cain with sneering, "just an unqualified pizza guy who runs crazy commercials" "no campaign organization...just interested in going on a book tour" sort of comments. They totally dismiss him out of hand, and I now turn them off as soon as the subject comes up.

The champions of Ron Johnson, who knows more about the Senate than the rest of the 99 professional politician dolts put together can't see what a disservice they are doing in their "Romney is inevitable unless we all back Perry because there's nobody else" defeatism.

10 posted on 10/27/2011 5:08:59 PM PDT by Mygirlsmom ("Get ready for an aberration of historic proportions" ...H Cain.."to correct the last one" MGM)
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To: mandaladon
Herman Cain

born December 13, 1945 in Memphis, TN (Meets the Jus Soli Requirement)

Parents were
Luther Cain Jr., born March 16, 1925 in TN, died March 29, 1982 in Atlanta, GA
Lenora Davis, born July 27, 1925 in GA, died August 20, 2005 in Atlanta, GA

Both parents were US Citizens at the time of his birth (Meets the Jus Sanguinis Requirement)

Herman Cain is a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN

”Herman

Barry Soetoro aka Barack Hussein Obama ISN'T!

Click on the cane.

11 posted on 10/27/2011 5:12:49 PM PDT by ASA Vet (Natural-born citizens, are those born in the country, of parents who are citizens. De Vattel)
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To: Mygirlsmom

What you said! I listen carefully to the various conservative pundits, and as soon as they diss Cain, off they go. It’s more than just not wanting to hear it. I just don’t have any time or interest in those who advance the Ruling Class line. Heaven forbid we should get a guy in DC who would shake up business as usual. It’s scaring the old boys/corruptocrats witless. I hope and pray Cain wins the primary. He will kick the snot out of Little Barry in the first debate, and run the tables in the general.


12 posted on 10/27/2011 5:20:26 PM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: mandaladon
The fact that Mr. Cain has made it this far with such apparently weak fundamentals — we’re less than 10 weeks away from the Iowa caucuses — is itself remarkable. It implies that there is either something fundamentally unusual about this year’s Republican nomination process, or perhaps that some sort of “new normal” has been established and that the old rules of how you win a nomination no longer carry as much weight.

Hmmm, one of the "experts" may just be on to something. All the combined so-called wisdom of the "experts" can't seem to fathom that Barry and his ilk have put us over the edge when it comes to The Ruling Class.

13 posted on 10/27/2011 5:22:21 PM PDT by FourPeas ("Maladjusted and wigging out is no way to go through life, son." -hg)
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yes we Cain !!!


14 posted on 10/27/2011 5:25:58 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: mandaladon

Herman Cain, the Georgia businessman “who has never held elected office”,...................................Seems like this is the standard boiler plate start off sentence of the MSM, they who set the standard with an “experienced community organizer”, who by the way has held an elective office and found himself above his pay grade.


15 posted on 10/27/2011 5:26:21 PM PDT by Bringbackthedraft (CAIN 2012, AMERICA ,LETS GET BACK TO "BUSINESS"!)
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To: TADSLOS

I thought Obama was an outlier. He’s always out lyin’ to people.


16 posted on 10/27/2011 5:27:21 PM PDT by Hugin ("A man'll usually tell you his bad intentions if you listen and let yourself hear it"--- Open Range)
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To: Fantasywriter

10 years ago, TV and radio would have been all you heard about that candidate. Thank goodness for the internet and social media - people are able to pull from a variety of sources and make their own decisions.

Imagine before, being able to read a candidate’s writing, or hear his speeches or check his stances on issues... It’s pretty incredible. I think it’s funny too, that the two oldest candidates are the two that use the new technology the best.

Like this posted on Cain’s FB today: Have questions about the 9-9-9 Plan? Text Cain999 to 90210! Please share this with your friends!


17 posted on 10/27/2011 5:29:41 PM PDT by justsaynomore (Cain 2012 - http://teamcain.hermancain.com)
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To: Hugin

No, Obama is an out and out liar.


18 posted on 10/27/2011 5:30:17 PM PDT by TADSLOS (Rick Perry engages in corporate welfare via Texas TEF/ETF)
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To: TADSLOS
No, Obama is an out and out liar.

As opposed to Clinton, who was an in and out liar.

19 posted on 10/27/2011 5:33:24 PM PDT by Hugin ("A man'll usually tell you his bad intentions if you listen and let yourself hear it"--- Open Range)
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To: Mygirlsmom

Interesting.
Here in Texas he gets respect from radio hosts.


20 posted on 10/27/2011 5:39:51 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: mandaladon

Silver is a liberal, but his polling analysis is often pretty good. This is a pretty fair article I think, especially considering that Silver probably hates everything Cain represents.

Saying that, I think the odds are very slim that Cain wins the nomination. And if he did, I think Hussein would easily defeat him in Nov 2012. I still think the only person who can realistically stop Romney the chameleon from getting the nomination is probably Perry. If Perry can’t recover then the next best shot against Mitt would be Newt, but I have little confidence in him as a national candidate. All in all, the more I see of our candidates the weaker this field appears. It amazes me that in an election cycle with a president struggling so badly that a better crop of candidates didn’t want to run against him.


21 posted on 10/27/2011 5:41:59 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Hugin

Bill, Hillary or both?


22 posted on 10/27/2011 5:45:16 PM PDT by TADSLOS (Rick Perry engages in corporate welfare via Texas TEF/ETF)
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To: Mygirlsmom
While I generally think we have some of the very best in the nation, I am getting extremely annoyed with the conservative Talk Radio heads here in Milwaukee....(Belling, Sykes, Weber, and even Vickie McKenna) all of whom are referring to Herman Cain with sneering, "just an unqualified pizza guy who runs crazy commercials" "no campaign organization...just interested in going on a book tour" sort of comments. They totally dismiss him out of hand, and I now turn them off as soon as the subject comes up.

I've never listened to Belling, Sykes, etc, but I agree with their analysis. Sorry, Cain is a good guy who I think has absolutely zero chance to win a national election. Too much of a political novice, too much of a gaffe machine, too likely to blow up his own campaign by saying stupid stuff because he is not polished enough to know how to deflect and otherwise avoid answering questions or making statements that will play horribly in the media (which would result in endless distracting controversy and knock him off message constantly). He'd get the solid conservative vote and that is about it - which is just not enough to win a national election. If we could just appoint a President, Cain might be just the guy for the job - but I don't think he can win a presidential election. The reality is Perry is in fact probably the only person that really stands between Romney the chameleon and the GOP nomination.

23 posted on 10/27/2011 5:53:43 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: mandaladon
Given that thousands of people with experience in elective office have damn near destroyed this once great nation I'm more than willing to take a chance on someone with talent and intelligence with no experience in office but who is a genuine PATRIOT!
24 posted on 10/27/2011 6:05:45 PM PDT by Thom Pain (OMG ABO USA = USC: United States of Chicago)
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25 posted on 10/27/2011 6:10:48 PM PDT by RedMDer (Forward With Confidence!)
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To: mandaladon

This is the first Tea Party Presidential election. That explains everything the pundits can’t figure out about Cain.


26 posted on 10/27/2011 6:17:35 PM PDT by ziravan (You don't have to be a rocket scientist to be President. . . but it helps!)
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To: mandaladon
I’m working on a project that tries to assign grades to each of the Republican candidates in a wide variety of categories.

I once created a program to predict the NFL draft. It assigned grades to various players according to their skills and sutibilty for each team's needs.

It produced wonderful mock drafts that were actually featured on several high-profile draft websites. It only had one shortcomming: It was never right.

Some things just can't be quantified down to a formula. Politics is one of them.

27 posted on 10/27/2011 6:28:57 PM PDT by Brookhaven (I believe in the seperation of school and state)
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To: Brookhaven

I have to thank Herman Cain, because he’s “outed” a lot of the so-called conservative pundits for who they really are. Watching O’Reilly and Laura Ingram tonight was almost nauseating ...and the rest of them must be totally wetting their pants.


28 posted on 10/27/2011 6:39:16 PM PDT by LibsRJerks
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To: Hugin

That got an out and out chuckle from me.


29 posted on 10/27/2011 6:50:09 PM PDT by loucon
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To: Hugin

ROFL!


30 posted on 10/27/2011 6:56:18 PM PDT by Mygirlsmom ("Get ready for an aberration of historic proportions" ...H Cain.."to correct the last one" MGM)
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To: mandaladon
Apparently the full court press is on at the New York Times, Here is their article hit piece from this morning:

As Cain Promotes His Management Skills, Ex-Aides Tell of Campaign in Chaos

31 posted on 10/27/2011 7:01:22 PM PDT by Pan_Yan
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To: justsaynomore
I think it’s funny too, that the two oldest candidates are the two that use the new technology the best.

Remember, Cain is not only a rocket scientist, but a computer scientist, as well. :)

32 posted on 10/27/2011 7:16:34 PM PDT by America_Right (Beat 0bama With a CAIN 2012)
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To: Lady Lucky
So many negative, prickly people here.

He's gotten a fair amount of worship at FR

If your opinion is that people here are negative, 'prickly', and guilty of idolatry, perhaps you SHOULD spend your time elsewhere instead of showing up here periodically to insult people.

33 posted on 10/27/2011 8:02:17 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (Perry's idea of border control: Use both hands to welcome the illegals right in)
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To: mandaladon

“Herman Cain, the Georgia businessman who has never held elected office”

Both of these qualifications are more impressive than anything Obama ever did before he was elected by a landslide by the American boobacracy in 2008.

And just to be fair to Cain, the NY Times should have mentioned that he also has been a Federal Reserve bank chairman.

By the way I can think of a couple of pretty good presidents who had never held public office prior to the presidency: George Washington and Dwight Eisenhower.


34 posted on 10/27/2011 9:59:00 PM PDT by haroldeveryman
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To: Jeff Head

New York Times = Jayson Blair Nuff Said


35 posted on 10/27/2011 10:02:50 PM PDT by Warrior Nurse (Cain is the Harriet Tubman of our time leading blacks off the Democratic plantation to freedom)
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To: Longbow1969
I think Hussein would easily defeat him in Nov 2012.

What is your basis for that assumption?
36 posted on 10/27/2011 10:05:56 PM PDT by federal__reserve (Perry is a good man but his one on one debates with Obama keeps me awake at nights.)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

Oooh, you don’t like my posts! How awful. I’m gonna eat a worm. :)


37 posted on 10/28/2011 3:19:57 AM PDT by Lady Lucky (Somebody please hit the reset button on the American experiment.)
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To: mandaladon
But then there are the nonpolling factors, some of which can be objectively measured and some of which cannot, but which would generally point toward Mr. Cain as being a second- or third-tier candidate. Mr. Cain has no endorsements from Republican members of Congress or Republican governors, and very few from officials in key early voting states. He has raised very little money. He has not hired well-known names for his campaign staff. He does not have traditional credentials. He has run for elected office just once before. He has begun to get a fair amount of media coverage, but the tenor of it has been fairly skeptical. His campaign commercials have been … interesting.

I read all of Silver's analysis and it's thoughtful as far as it goes. However, he is suffering from being blinded by "the way it's always been done."

IOW, try as he might, he continues to hold fast to his old definition of "fundamentals." For example, none of things he mentions above as indicators presently mean a hill of beans in the wake of the political earthquake that was caused by the Tea Party and, more broadly, the grassroots discovery that it can support candidates of its choice directly (i.e., bypassing the old party apparatus and endorsement system completely).

Few in professional political analysis, including what are commonly called the party "elites," seem to have actually appreciated the shifts that have occurred under their feet.

The grassroots no longer needs ANYONE to do whatever it wants. Candidates can raise money directly -- I could see a candidate making it without ever having done a traditional rubber chicken dinner! Candidates can use new media and web ads to go directly and inexpensively to voters. And voters can make ads and pass them around, potentially to millions, on the internet.

IOW, to talk about "ground games" and endorsements is pretty much an historical anachronism, and will be more so as the first fully Tea Party/new media election gets going.

Cain is being dismissed because he's not using the Pony Express to get his message out. Meanwhile, he's figured out that the telegraph has been invented.

38 posted on 10/28/2011 4:51:13 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: Paperdoll
Maybe you're referring to another NYT article, but this one said nothing of the sort.
39 posted on 10/28/2011 4:54:46 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: sodpoodle
I agree. A man smart enough to know what he doesn't know is worth watching.

I posted earlier that Silver seemed quite boxed in by his set understanding of what constituted campaign "fundamentals."

He actually was pretty open to the fact that he wasn't sure these old indicators still applied. What I meant, however, was he seemed stumped as to what new indicators were taking their place.

Some of the things I think will become the new non-polling fundamentals: direct fundraising (grassroots donations directly to the candidate's website); earned media appearances and views, including clips viewed and linked on the internet; talk radio mentions. For starters.

40 posted on 10/28/2011 5:00:58 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: Sir Lurks Alot
But I do know what an analyst should not do: he should not use terms like “never” and “no chance” when applied to Mr. Cain’s chances of winning the nomination, as many analysts have.

Wow, even a NYT political analyst outdoes freepers occasionally!

41 posted on 10/28/2011 5:01:55 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: Mygirlsmom

I’m surprised to hear that out of your talk radio lineup.

What they are stuck on is the old playbook.

They are saying Cain is “doing it wrong” because he’s “not doing it the way it’s always been done.”

If they don’t think Cain should president, I have no problem with that. They should state that directly and give their reasons.

But it’s just dumb and poor reasoning to say Cain “won’t” be president or shouldn’t be president because he’s not using the traditional party apparatus to go about his business of campaigning.


42 posted on 10/28/2011 5:05:33 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: justsaynomore
Imagine before, being able to read a candidate’s writing, or hear his speeches or check his stances on issues... It’s pretty incredible. I think it’s funny too, that the two oldest candidates are the two that use the new technology the best

I don't get how these pundits, pollsters and professional analysts miss this!

They are no longer the gatekeepers. Cain, for example, has a huge archive of columns, talk radio transcripts, speeches etc. available for any voter to read, post and start a widespread discussion over.

We haven't a candidate with this kind of record of his actual thoughts, analysis and philosophy of governing available to one and all to see, DIRECTLY, with no media filter, no less, in history.

They haven't fully appreciated what it means that each person in their audience now has some ability to fact-check what they say -- or to find the links to back up an opposing viewpoint. This also means that voters are essentially doing their own vetting of candidates.

When Cain gives a speech in TN, for example, because there is so much interest in him, hundreds of thousands of people throughout the US see the clip on the internet and end up watching the entire speech. Then talking about it, not only with friends and neighbors, but with thousands of people, again spread throughout the U.S., in forums such as FR.

That trumps having the little ladies lined up to go door-to-door handing our brochures and asking you to vote for so-and-so any day! And these days people aren't home, nor do they want to open the door anyway! So it's pretty funny to hear many of these people still talking about an old-style "ground game."

43 posted on 10/28/2011 5:15:27 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: Longbow1969

Man, even Nate Silver of the NYT wouldn’t go there.


44 posted on 10/28/2011 5:17:16 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: ziravan

That, my friend, is it in a nutshell. Entirely.


45 posted on 10/28/2011 5:17:53 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: Brookhaven

I’ve often recommended Tony Blair’s political memoire, “My Journey.” Fascinating on several levels.

One of the observations he makes there that really made an impression on me:

“Mood always trumps politics.”

Basically, there is this mostly unquantifiable force called the “mood of the country.” It has a mind and will of its own, so to speak, and it defies (or at least operates separately from) political convention.

In the draft, it’s probably comparable to that last piece of the puzzle, the gut instinct about a player.

The reason draft prediction models are so often wrong is the same reason political convention can be wrong: gut instinct/mood of the country trumps all.

I see this in 2008: the mood of the country led to the election of Obama, despite the fact that on the political fundamentals he was already a disaster.


46 posted on 10/28/2011 5:24:16 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: Pan_Yan

It’s beginning to seem to me that everyone’s ex-aides are always complaining of a “campaign in chaos.”

Maybe campaigns just are pretty chaotic and the candidate never does/can micromanage them enough to meet the liking of some?


47 posted on 10/28/2011 5:26:09 AM PDT by fightinJAG (NO REPRESENTATION WITHOUT TAXATION! Everyone should pay taxes, everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: mandaladon

Anyone who still reads that rag and believes it is forever lost in the murky sea of lies and deceptions.


48 posted on 10/28/2011 10:37:53 AM PDT by Paperdoll ( llike Herman Cain)
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