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Unemployment claims drop below 400,000 (to 397,000 in the week ended Oct. 29)
The Hill ^ | 11/03/2011 | Vicki Needham

Posted on 11/03/2011 6:32:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

First-time jobless claims dropped again last week to the lowest level in five weeks, as the labor market make halting improvements.

Applications for unemployment benefits dropped by 9,000 to 397,000 in the week ended Oct. 29, from last week's revised figure of 406,000, the Labor Department reported on Thursday.

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measurement, fell 2,000 to 404,500, from the previous week's revised average of 406,500. The monthly figures have shown consistent drops in recent weeks as companies curtail layoffs.

The government is due to release figures for October on Friday with estimates of job growth ranging between 95,000 and 125,000 — the unemployment rate is expected to remain stuck at 9.1 percent.

Overall, the number of people receiving jobless benefits hit a six-month low, another sign the market may be stabilizing although progress remains slow.

Economists said claims for benefits need to drop below 375,000 to indicate a healthy job market, more jobs and a lower unemployment rate.

Applications fell to 375,000 in February and stayed below 400,000 for two months, before hitting an eight-month high of 478,000 in April.

The economy generated 103,000 net jobs in September, well below what is needed to lower the unemployment rate — which stayed at 9.1 percent for the third straight month — but calming fears of a double-dip recession.

Economic growth also helped to relax concerns last week when the Commerce Department announced the economy grew 2.5 percent in the third quarter.

A separate report on Wednesday, showed that the jobless rate dropped in 75 percent of the nation's largest U.S. cities, a sign that job creation is happening across most of the country.

The Labor Department said that unemployment rates fell in 280 large metro areas from August to September

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: joblessclaims; unemployment

1 posted on 11/03/2011 6:32:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Upward revision due out next week?


2 posted on 11/03/2011 6:35:27 AM PDT by FoxInSocks (B. Hussein Obama: Central Planning Czar)
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To: SeekAndFind

Of course they will ignore this report next week when the numbers are adjusted above the 400,000 mark once again.


3 posted on 11/03/2011 6:36:40 AM PDT by Bob Buchholz
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To: SeekAndFind

Ahem. Jobless claims have to drop below 200,000 a month to get the economy going so we can increase employment, and accomodate all of the new people just entering the job market.

The Hill’s way off. Surprise!


4 posted on 11/03/2011 6:36:41 AM PDT by RexBeach (There is no such thing as a good tax - Winston Churchill)
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To: SeekAndFind

Have you noticed that every week, they revise the previous week UP and then quote the drop from that number? The 397,000 this week will probably be revised up to 400,000 next week and then if that week is 398,000 it will be reported as a 2000 DROP instead of a 1000 INCREASE. Who do these guys think they are kidding?


5 posted on 11/03/2011 6:37:31 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: SeekAndFind
All Together!

Happy days are here again. The skies above are clear again.....

6 posted on 11/03/2011 6:41:38 AM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: Rational Thought
I might not like her dumb politics, but her version of that song was the best I've heard...


7 posted on 11/03/2011 6:43:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: SeekAndFind

The MSM is positive that everything is just swell and the odor of the WH version of the Titan Arum really isn’t that bad.


8 posted on 11/03/2011 6:43:48 AM PDT by JPG (The loons at OWS will soon be at each others throats.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Always difficult in life to appreciate the specific talents of an individual whom otherwise I find so repulsive.


9 posted on 11/03/2011 6:51:34 AM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: SeekAndFind

OK, so

I tried to make sense of this intentional gobbledygook to see how obama writers are obfuscating reality

From last week (Bloomberg)
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-27/jobless-claims-in-u-s-decreased-2-000-last-week-to-402-000.html
///////////////////////////
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment assistance last week, while those on benefit rolls dropped to a three-year low, signaling limited improvement in the labor market.

First-time jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 402,000 in the week ended Oct. 22, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 401,000. The number of people collecting unemployment benefits fell in the prior week by 96,000 to 3.65 million, the fewest since September 2008.
////////////////

OK, so this report TODAY indicates that last week’s report of “402,000” that was touted as “a drop of 2,000 from the previous week” was a LIE.

Now we see that last week’s figures were revised UPWARD to 405,600. So all the hype about last weak being a drop was a LIE

Anyone want to guess that next week, today’s figures will again be revised (unexpectedly) above 400K?

And Jaysus, this “400+K a week” is getting old. When is the last person in America going to file for first time unemployment?


10 posted on 11/03/2011 6:53:46 AM PDT by silverleaf (Common sense is not so common - Voltaire)
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To: SeekAndFind
The economy generated 103,000 net jobs in September

103k for the MONTH.

The economy needs 200k per WEEK just to stay even. That 103k for the month is short by about 700k.
11 posted on 11/03/2011 6:54:19 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: TomGuy

The economy ALWAYS adds jobs headed into the holidays.


12 posted on 11/03/2011 6:58:56 AM PDT by Moby Grape (Formerly Impeach the Boy...name change necessary after the Marxist won)
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To: SeekAndFind

And, so......next week they will be revised upward to some number over 400,000, just as last week’s numbers were. These numbers folks have been over 400,000 per month since April, 2011!!! Anyone that believes this jive is only fooling themselves.


13 posted on 11/03/2011 7:00:34 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX
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To: SeekAndFind
Unemployment claims drop below 400,000 (to 397,000 in the week ended Oct. 29)

In other news - Swampland for sale on a bayou in Mississippi!

Anyone who believes the government's unemployment figures will believe anything.

One prediction: The closer we get to the election next year, the better the unemployment figures will look - another "miracle" wrought by "The One" - Barry Hussein 0bama. /sarc

FUBO GTFO! 444 Days until Noon Jan 20, 2013

14 posted on 11/03/2011 7:03:44 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Psalm 109:8 Let his days be few and let another take his office. - Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin)
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To: TomGuy

>>>The economy needs 200k per WEEK just to stay even. That 103k for the month is short by about 700k.

I think your figures are off by a considerable amount. Even in 2005, the best year for jobs growth in the last decade, the monthly change in payrolls averaged 208,000. By your figures, we would have been 600,000 short per month. Yet the unemployment rate declined through the year from 5.3% to 4.9%.


15 posted on 11/03/2011 7:07:02 AM PDT by NC28203
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To: NC28203

Stuart Varney said on FoxNews about a year ago that the economy would need to be creating 200k jobs per week just to stay even.

At 400k new jobless per WEEK, that is 1.6 million new unemployed per month. 100k new jobs per MONTH isn’t going to make a dent in that.


16 posted on 11/03/2011 7:18:09 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: silverleaf

Well as many here probably know, It’s a first time jobless claim every time you file after having a streach of employment.


17 posted on 11/03/2011 7:20:53 AM PDT by qman (If you are prepared you can't be surprised.)
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To: TomGuy

Keep in mind people come and go from the job market, check the rolling numbers of unemployed for the actual unemployed rate. Keep in mind the current administration changed the way it’s figured, witch makes the numbers look better than they would under the old system. The actual unemployment rate is around 12% under the old system.


18 posted on 11/03/2011 7:26:30 AM PDT by qman (If you are prepared you can't be surprised.)
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Wake Up And Donate!


Click The Pic

Let's Make The Bar Yellow!

19 posted on 11/03/2011 7:32:32 AM PDT by DJ MacWoW (America! The wolves are here! What will you do?)
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To: TomGuy; NC28203

Check the posting history of the bot you’re responding to and you’ll understand exactly what you’re dealing with.


20 posted on 11/03/2011 7:39:32 AM PDT by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard (Some men just want to watch the world burn.)
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To: TomGuy
The economy needs 200k per WEEK just to stay even. That 103k for the month is short by about 700k.

Huh? No, your are incorrect. It sounds like you are mixing up reports or something. The economy needs to add about 100,000ish jobs per month to account for population growth. That is approximately what we are getting which is why the unemployment rate has stuck at 9.1% for so long. If we actually added 800,000 per month it would signal a very rapid expansion and the unemployment rate would drop dramatically.

The weekly jobless claims is something entirely different. Even in a very good economy there are hundreds of thousands of new unemployment claims each week. If the number of new weekly jobless claims is over 400,000 it generally signals a very sluggish job market. Anything under 400,000 generally signals some job growth. If we start seeing numbers around 350,000 or under it means we are seeing more significant job growth.

21 posted on 11/03/2011 7:46:35 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: TomGuy
>>>Stuart Varney said on FoxNews about a year ago that the economy would need to be creating 200k jobs per week just to stay even. At 400k new jobless per WEEK, that is 1.6 million new unemployed per month. 100k new jobs per MONTH isn’t going to make a dent in that.

I'm guessing that Mr. Varney said 200K per month, not week. As I noted in my prior post, even at the peak of jobs growth in 2005 and 2006, we would have been well below the level you posit as necessary to stay even.

On the second item, you are comparing apples and oranges. The weekly claims only report job losses. The monthly number is payroll job increases, net of job losses.
22 posted on 11/03/2011 7:50:21 AM PDT by NC28203
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To: TomGuy
Stuart Varney said on FoxNews about a year ago that the economy would need to be creating 200k jobs per week just to stay even.

At 400k new jobless per WEEK, that is 1.6 million new unemployed per month. 100k new jobs per MONTH isn’t going to make a dent in that.

You are mixing up reports, apparently misunderstood Varney and are otherwise entirely incorrect. You should stop posting on this subject till you know what you are talking about.

23 posted on 11/03/2011 7:52:38 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: WhistlingPastTheGraveyard; TomGuy
>>>Check the posting history of the bot you’re responding to and you’ll understand exactly what you’re dealing with.

So you agree with TomGuy that at the height of the Bush expansion we were 600,000 jobs short on a monthly basis?
24 posted on 11/03/2011 7:52:47 AM PDT by NC28203
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To: TomGuy
>>>Stuart Varney said on FoxNews about a year ago that the economy would need to be creating 200k jobs per week just to stay even.

"Though estimates vary, many experts say that the economy needs to add roughly 125,000 jobs per month to keep pace with population growth, and 200,000 jobs per month to bring down the 9.1 percent unemployment rate."

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/11/02/adp-challenger-data-suggest-middling-jobs-number-for-friday
25 posted on 11/03/2011 7:57:10 AM PDT by NC28203
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To: NC28203

TomGuy does not know what he is talking about.

Literally every week people post ignorantly about these reports because they’ve never bothered to find out what what they actually mean, how they are different and what represents good versus bad numbers. It is really quite tiresome.


26 posted on 11/03/2011 8:12:08 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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