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Will the GOP Blow It? (It will again if Mitt Romney is the chosen candidate)
National Review ^ | 11/15/2011 | Thomas Sowell

Posted on 11/15/2011 7:06:48 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Conservatives must unite around one candidate to stop Mitt Romney.

Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes said that a good catchphrase could stop thinking for 50 years. One of the often-repeated catchphrases of our time — “It’s the economy, stupid!” — has already stopped thinking in some quarters for a couple of decades.

There is no question that the state of the economy can affect elections. But there is also no iron law that all elections will be decided by the state of the economy.

Pres. Franklin D. Roosevelt was reelected for an unprecedented third term after two terms in which unemployment was in double digits for eight consecutive years.

We may lament the number of people who are unemployed or who are on food stamps today. But those who give the Obama administration credit for coming to their rescue when they didn’t have a job are likely to greatly outnumber those who blame the administration for their not having a job in the first place.

An expansion of the welfare state in hard times seems to have been the secret of FDR’s great political success in the midst of economic disaster. An economic study published in a scholarly journal in 2004 concluded that the Roosevelt administration’s policies prolonged the Great Depression by several years. But few people read economic studies.

This economy has been sputtering along through most of the Obama administration, with the unemployment rate hovering around 9 percent. But none of that means that Barack Obama is going to lose the 2012 election.

Even polls that show “any Republican” with more public support than Obama do not mean that Obama will lose.

The president is not going to run against “any Republican.” He is going to run against some specific Republican, and that Republican can expect to be attacked, denounced, and denigrated for months on end before the November 2012 elections — not only by the Democrats, but also by the media, which is heavily pro-Democrat.

We have already seen how unsubstantiated allegations from women with questionable histories have dropped Herman Cain from front-runner status to third place in just a couple of weeks.

In short, it takes a candidate to beat a candidate, and everything depends on what kind of candidate that is.

The smart money inside the Beltway says that the Republicans need to pick a moderate candidate who can appeal to independent voters, not just to the conservative voters who turn out to vote in Republican primaries. Those who think this way say that you have to “reach out” to Hispanics, the elderly, and other constituencies.

What is remarkable is how seldom the smart-money folks look at what has actually been happening in presidential elections.

Ronald Reagan won two landslide elections when he ran as Ronald Reagan. Vice President George H. W. Bush then won when he ran as if he were another Ronald Reagan, with his famous statement, “Read my lips, no new taxes.”

But after Bush 41 was elected and turned “kinder and gentler” — to everyone except the taxpayers — he lost to an unknown governor from a small state.

Other Republican presidential candidates who went the “moderate” route — Bob Dole and John McCain — also came across as neither fish nor fowl and went down to defeat.

Now the smart money inside the Beltway is saying that Mitt Romney, who is nothing if not versatile in his positions, is the Republicans’ best hope for replacing Obama.

If conservative Republicans split their votes among a number of conservative candidates in the primaries, that can mean ending up with a presidential candidate in the Bob Dole–John McCain mold — and risking a Bob Dole–John McCain result in the next election.

The question now is whether the conservative Republican candidates who have enjoyed their successive and short-lived boomlets — Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain — are prepared to stay in the primary race to the bitter end, or whether their conservative principles will move them to withdraw and throw their support to another conservative candidate.

There has probably never been a time in the history of this country when we more urgently needed to get a president out of the White House, before he ruined the country. But will the conservative Republican candidates let that guide them?

— Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gop; mittromney; romney

1 posted on 11/15/2011 7:06:50 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I am starting to get an uneasy feeling. Would not surprise me if Romney gets it:(


2 posted on 11/15/2011 7:09:26 AM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: SeekAndFind

Didn’t these guys endorse Romney in 08?


3 posted on 11/15/2011 7:09:42 AM PST by VanDeKoik (1 million in stimulus dollars paid for this tagline!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Do not put it past the demoncrats to use their voter fraud tactics to pick the GOP candidate for us.


4 posted on 11/15/2011 7:10:45 AM PST by Safrguns
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To: SeekAndFind

Hail the new POTUS - the same as the old POTUS.


5 posted on 11/15/2011 7:15:14 AM PST by Jukeman
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To: SeekAndFind

Of COURSE they will! (I refuse to call myself a GOPer as I am a Conservative).

They will nominate Romney come Hell or high water. Romney will get slaughtered in the General which will hurt us in all the other races.

It is NOW time for a Third Party. It is time to stop being the useful idiots and saying “well if you vote Third Party, blah, blah, blah” It’s what they want. It’s what they always get.

Ive been voting since Goldwater - Johnson and I have never been so upset about the state of the GOP.


6 posted on 11/15/2011 7:15:44 AM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: SeekAndFind

fdr was elected to a 4th term.


7 posted on 11/15/2011 7:15:59 AM PST by ken21
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney, Perry, Newt...all from the same establishment mold will blow it for the GOP.

Third party will be needed and the GOP will have to be seen from here on out as a hostile political party.


8 posted on 11/15/2011 7:16:21 AM PST by CSI007
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To: VanDeKoik

RE: Didn’t these guys endorse Romney in 08?

But Thomas Sowell (author of this article ) is a SYNDICATED Columnist, not part of the Editorial Board of NRO.


9 posted on 11/15/2011 7:16:54 AM PST by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: ken21

RE: fdr was elected to a 4th term

That was before TERM LIMITS were put in place.


10 posted on 11/15/2011 7:17:32 AM PST by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: SeekAndFind
The question now is whether the conservative Republican candidates who have enjoyed their successive and short-lived boomlets — Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain — are prepared to stay in the primary race to the bitter end, or whether their conservative principles will move them to withdraw and throw their support to another conservative candidate

So Cain, who has the strongest campaign finance and poll position in the early states is supposed to drop out in favor of the some times conservative Newt Gingrich?

I see Dr Sowell's standard isn't who is the best Conservative in the race but who is the most reliably part of the GOP Establishment who can fake it for Conservatives.

Dr Sowell lost a whole lot of stature with this one.

11 posted on 11/15/2011 7:18:49 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: RIghtwardHo

I’m with you RI...but a third Party? Is this going to help defeat Hussein? Our two party system and yes, the flawed GOP is still our best hope.


12 posted on 11/15/2011 7:24:09 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Awaken Oh America.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Everyone needs to rally around Cain.


13 posted on 11/15/2011 7:25:20 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Cain 2012!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Mitt was a major failure last time. Nothing has changed.


14 posted on 11/15/2011 7:27:53 AM PST by bgill (The Obama administration is staging a coup. Wake up, America, before it's too late.)
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To: katiedidit1
I am starting to get an uneasy feeling. Would not surprise me if Romney gets it:(

If you're scared, get a dog. In the mean time, there are things we can do to prevent a Robomney nightmare.

Ensuring Romney's Defeat

My advice: Stop whining, go out and do it.
15 posted on 11/15/2011 7:30:14 AM PST by Antoninus (Take the pledge: I will not vote for Mitt Romney under any circumstances. EVER.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Now the smart money inside the Beltway is saying that Mitt Romney, who is nothing if not versatile in his positions, is the Republicans’ best hope for replacing Obama.

Dr. Sowell, you are a master of subtlety.

16 posted on 11/15/2011 7:31:49 AM PST by upchuck (Rerun: Think you know hardship? Wait till the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency.)
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To: MNJohnnie

People like you is precisely why Romney will be the nominee and that will be the end of conservatism in this country for a long time.

Cain has ZERO chance. Get real and get over it.


17 posted on 11/15/2011 7:34:22 AM PST by indianrightwinger
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Yeah...and lose in a landslide to Obama. Great idea!!


18 posted on 11/15/2011 7:35:05 AM PST by indianrightwinger
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To: Mountain Mary
the flawed GOP is still our best hope.

Then there is NO hope. We will simply continue our slow, pathetic death as a nation, just as we have been doing for over 50 years.

The machine is pleased that sheeple continue to think that our "best hope" is to operate within their system.

19 posted on 11/15/2011 7:40:48 AM PST by teenyelliott (Obama warned if he loses the election it could herald a new, painful era of self-reliance)
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To: indianrightwinger
Cain has no chance? With 10 time the money and the better poll position in the early states then any of the other non Romney candidates?

Most people might listen to you Cain critics if you didn’t all sound like 12 year olds fighting on a playground.

It is this habitual posting of childish ad homine attacks at Cain, and his supporters, that make thinking people dismiss the Cain critic’s arguments as silly nonsense.

20 posted on 11/15/2011 7:40:49 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: SeekAndFind

In a word - YES!


21 posted on 11/15/2011 7:41:12 AM PST by Buckeye Battle Cry (Mittt Romney - he lacks the courage of his absence of convictions.)
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To: indianrightwinger

Glad you have feelings. Please stop confusing your emotionally hysteric opinions for facts.


22 posted on 11/15/2011 7:41:30 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: indianrightwinger

He’s winning most of the primary states. Fact.


23 posted on 11/15/2011 7:43:06 AM PST by ilgipper (Everything you get from the government was taken from someone else)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sowell is right. It’s time for some of the conservative candidates with no shot to drop out and endorse one of the others. If we go into the primaries with 8 candidates, McRomney is going to win. One of the negatives of having a debate every single week is that none of the candidates feel any pressure to drop out, since they get weekly exposure regardless. What a nightmare it would be if the establishment manages to push their milquetoast candidate through yet again because conservatives couldn’t get it together enough to get behind one of the 5 tolerable candidates. After all that we’ve been through you’d think we could at least keep our foot on the throat of the Rockefeller Republican wing of the party. Does anybody other than Karl Rove really think that we need a Ford, Dole, McCain type candidate in this environment? If Romney wins the nomination a third party movement is inevitable. Can the party bigwigs really not see that?


24 posted on 11/15/2011 7:55:51 AM PST by Blackyce (President Jacques Chirac: "As far as I'm concerned, war always means failure.")
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To: TexasFreeper2009
>> Everyone needs to rally around Cain.<<

Cain killed himself yesterday with that interview performance.

25 posted on 11/15/2011 8:06:16 AM PST by CynicalBear
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To: Blackyce

Who’s to say at this point who has a “shot” and who doesn’t? I don’t like Santorum, for example, but he would be fool to drop out now for example with such a volatile race.


26 posted on 11/15/2011 8:08:23 AM PST by Captain Kirk
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To: SeekAndFind
Mitt lost heads-up to McCain, who lost handily to Obama. A Mitt vs Obama contest would guarantee that a single-payee system would continue on a national level. There's not much good coming from a Romney nomination.

Personally, I see Perry as the key to the contest. The votes for e other candidate, if/when they drop out, are likely to go to Cain. Perry is the only other "establishment guy", and a significant pcentage of his votes will go to Romney. While Cain is certainly highly unpolished at the moment, I think he has a better chance than Bachmann or Gingrich. For our economy to have its best chance, Bachmann and Gingrinch need to exit, and soon, so that Cain's numbers can continue to grow. If Perry exits first, Mitt's numbers go up, and the MSM plays defense for him until the summer. Just my simplified prognostications on it.

27 posted on 11/15/2011 8:16:23 AM PST by Teacher317 (really?)
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To: Safrguns

Agree wonder how many buses are leased for the election.


28 posted on 11/15/2011 8:28:46 AM PST by Vaduz
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To: CynicalBear
lol

you think I care about one interview?

lol

Your attempts to try and make a literal rocket scientist look dumb will fail miserably.

29 posted on 11/15/2011 8:29:41 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Cain 2012!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

If you knew of our involvement in the Cain campaign you would know that I am looking at more than just one interview.


30 posted on 11/15/2011 8:32:00 AM PST by CynicalBear
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To: CynicalBear
“Cain killed himself yesterday with that interview performance.”

I agree, I had hopes for Cain but the more he talks the less I support him. We are going to be forced to vote for “Mitt the Mormon”. That is just how it is going to be.

We need to continue working on getting a conservative Senate and keeping the house. That is more doable.

I am officially endorsing Mitt because resistance is futile at this point.

Romney/Pick one 2012....

31 posted on 11/15/2011 8:37:44 AM PST by bluecollarman (Wanted....witty tagline.)
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To: teenyelliott

I am unhappy with the GOP right now too. But there is no past or present evidence that a third party candidate will be a viable option.

I say support that most prinicipled Conservative of the GOP bunch and PRAY for America.


32 posted on 11/15/2011 8:37:47 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Awaken Oh America.)
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To: bluecollarman
>> I am officially endorsing Mitt because resistance is futile at this point.<<

No way would I support or vote for Romney under any circumstances. I don’t even believe he will be the nominee but if for some odd reason he is I’ll sit this one out. I’ll support Gingrich in the meantime.

33 posted on 11/15/2011 8:42:51 AM PST by CynicalBear
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To: bluecollarman

I agree with you bluecollarman, that we should focus on having a Conservative majority in the Senate and House. The presidency is only one part of this and we have to look at that which we have some control over.
If we all work on keeping our states red or turning them from blue to red, we’ll be off to a good start.


34 posted on 11/15/2011 8:42:53 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Awaken Oh America.)
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To: Safrguns

That’s exactly what I’m afraid of. They’re going to pick our candidate to ensure their victory. There just isn’t enough rope...


35 posted on 11/15/2011 9:00:12 AM PST by mcshot (Neither handsome nor handy but took an oath and will vote to save our Country.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The GOP has already blown it, no matter what it does or who it nominates now.


36 posted on 11/15/2011 9:02:24 AM PST by Timber Rattler (Don't Tread on Me!)
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To: SeekAndFind

They already have... look at the dregs we are left with to choose from.

LLS


37 posted on 11/15/2011 9:22:17 AM PST by LibLieSlayer ("Americans are hungry to feel once again a sense of mission and greatness." Ronaldo Magnus)
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To: LibLieSlayer

RE: They already have... look at the dregs we are left with to choose from.

In your opinion, who should have been in the race instead of these so-called “dregs” left to choose from?


38 posted on 11/15/2011 9:24:05 AM PST by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: SeekAndFind
Defeat Romney / Defeat Obama



FReepmail me to join the Ping List.

39 posted on 11/15/2011 10:39:33 AM PST by Antoninus (Take the pledge: I will not vote for Mitt Romney under any circumstances. EVER.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Jim Demint, Sarah Palin, Mike Pence, Michael Reagan, Walter Williams, Thomas Sowell to mention a few. This is the absolute worst slate of candidates we have ever been faced with (in my lifetime)... if the dims had anyone else to run but obama... we would have no chance at all.

LLS


40 posted on 11/15/2011 2:21:56 PM PST by LibLieSlayer ("Americans are hungry to feel once again a sense of mission and greatness." Ronaldo Magnus)
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To: LibLieSlayer
This is the absolute worst slate of candidates we have ever been faced with (in my lifetime)...

Worse than 2008?

Which of McCain, Romney or Huckabee would you prefer?

41 posted on 11/15/2011 4:11:09 PM PST by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance On Parade)
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To: okie01

Has there really been a good Republican candidate since Reagan?


42 posted on 11/15/2011 4:12:11 PM PST by dfwgator (I stand with Herman Cain.)
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To: dfwgator
Has there really been a good Republican candidate since Reagan?

Truth is, there have been only two good Republican candidates in my lifetime (since 1940): Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan.

All of the rest have been disappointments.

It is as if the country has run out of good men (or women).

43 posted on 11/15/2011 4:25:04 PM PST by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance On Parade)
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To: okie01

Look the environment today, where the media probes your every move and everything you did in your life.

You would have to be nuts to want the job...it’s like a Catch-22, the fact you even want the job makes you suspect in the first place.


44 posted on 11/15/2011 4:26:22 PM PST by dfwgator (I stand with Herman Cain.)
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45 posted on 11/15/2011 4:42:02 PM PST by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: dfwgator
...where the media probes your every move and everything you did in your life.

You would have to be nuts to want the job...

Unless you're on their side.

And what gift has this media corruption given us?

Jimmeh Cahtuh...der Schlickmeister...and the current occupant.

They should be ashamed.

46 posted on 11/15/2011 4:56:05 PM PST by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance On Parade)
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To: okie01
As lazy and as creepy as he was... Fred Thompson was at least talking the talk in NC. He has proved himself to be another progressive but that is a fact... the reason that this slate is worse that 2008 is that WE DIDN'T LEARN a damn thing in 2008... nothing but third string at best today... and I am being generous. Enjoy the candidate sandwich 2011... but it is still a crap sandwich.

LLS

47 posted on 11/16/2011 4:10:43 AM PST by LibLieSlayer ("Americans are hungry to feel once again a sense of mission and greatness." Ronaldo Magnus)
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