Skip to comments.Will Israel Face Iran Alone?
Posted on 11/16/2011 5:21:45 AM PST by SJackson
Adrian Blomfield, Jerusalem correspondent for Britains Telegraph, reports that Israel has refused to reassure President Barack Obama that it would warn him in advance of any pre-emptive strike on Irans nuclear capabilities, and that Obama was rebuffed last month when he demanded such a guarantee.
Blomfield says he has this dope from insiders briefed on a top-secret meeting between Americas most senior defence chief and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israels hawkish prime minister . Hes referring to Defense Secretary Leon Panettas visit to Israel last month, during which, in a private meeting with Mr Netanyahu and the defence minister, Ehud Barak, Panetta conveyed Obamas urgent demand. Yet
the two Israelis were notably evasive in their response, according to sources both in Israel and the United States .
Alarmed by Mr Netanyahus noncommittal response, Mr Obama reportedly ordered the US intelligence services to step up monitoring of Israel to glean clues of its intentions.
The report meshes with Panettas not-so-veiled warning to Israel just before that visit to lay off Iran, and with his statement this weekalbeit not explicitly directed at Israelthat an attack on Iran could have unintended consequences . It could have a serious impact in the region and it could have a serious impact on US forces in the region.
The same message came through from Europe this week. French foreign minister Alain Juppe said an attack on Iranians nuclear facilities would drag the world into an uncontrollable spiral. In the wake of last weeks International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Irans nuclear progressconfirming all of Israels warnings over the yearsEU foreign ministers ruled out any military action for now.
Juppe did say the EU would be asking the European Investment Bank to freeze loans to Iran. Meanwhile the EU foreign ministers decided to wait till their next meeting on Dec 1., before taking further action.
It somehow doesnt have that ring of urgency.
And yet, as The Telegraphs Blomfield also notes, many in [Israel] believe time is running out.
Blomfield quotes Ephraim Asculai, former IAEA official and an Israeli expert on Irans nuclear program, saying that if the Iranian regime decides to do so, it can produce a nuclear explosive device within a year, plus or minus a few months. There are also warnings that Iran could soon be transferring most of its nuclear production under a mountain near Qom, making it much harderor impossibleto bomb from the air.
Is Israel, then, facing the threat essentially alone? If so, it would hardly be unprecedented. Theres an inglorious history of the United States and Europe leaving Israel to fend for itself against threats, sometimes even existential ones.
It happened in Israels 1948-1949 War for Independence, when it found itself embargoed by the West (with Britain aiding the Arab side) and had to turn to the Soviet bloc for arms. Just before the 1967 Six Day War, Israels ally France slapped an arms embargo on the region that was mainly aimed at Israel.
Six years later, in the Yom Kippur War, it took an Israeli threat to use nuclear weapons against its attackers Egypt and Syria for the U.S. to finally airlift desperately needed military supplies. Even then, Americas European allies refused the U.S. planes landing rights to refuel, with only Portugal finally acquiescing.
The record in recent years is not much better. Israels Operation Defensive Shield (2002) against the Palestinian terror war, Second Lebanon War (2006) against Hezbollah, and Operation Cast Lead (2008-2009) against Hamas in Gaza all evoked a clamor of Western demands for immediate ceasefires along with charges of Israeli moral offenses. The U.S. was sometimes more sympathetic than Europe but still distinctly uncomfortable with Israeli military action and showed short patience for it no matter what savageries Israel had been subjected to.
It may be too soon to conclude that the current situation is as stark. As Joseph Klein notes, Obama could surprise us and show the boldness he displayed in making the decision to take out Osama bin Laden, though his record to date on Iran is dismal. And while some of the Republican presidential candidates have made hawkish avowals on Iran, Israeleven if one of them eventually defeats Obamahas to watch the clock.
If the reports (notably in The Guardian and Time) that Israels Mossad was behind the blast at the Iranian missile base are accurate, it could be an indication that Israel is already taking its own tack. As Israeli author and military commentator Ronen Bergman told the Telegraph reporter:
People outside Israel dont understand how profound memories of the Holocaust are, and how they affect future policy making. At the end of the day, this policy of never again would dictate Israels behaviour when intelligence comes through that Iran has come close to a bomb.
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If Israel gives prior warning to the kenyan about a strike against Iran surely that warning will be transmitted to Iran immediately and possibly the US Navy will have a little more time to properly prepare to take out the Israeli planes and submarines. I believe it possible that Israel will have to fight the United States, too, or be very efficient at E&E as IAF heads for Iran.
Israel should and will do what is needed, when it is needed, to ensure their survival.
If that day can wait until we Fire Obama, they can again look to America for significant support.
No, never. They are still the apple of God's eye (not for their inherent righteousness but for God's on purpose) and whoever attacks Israel attacks God. Look at what happened in the 6 day war.
Better to go it alone than to depend on an uncertain ally.
That is my fear, too. An Obama led US would do all that it could to assure that Israel would fail and that Iran completes its nuclear weapons program. A destroyed Israel and a drastically weakened US fleeing a nuclear powered Islamic conquest of the West would be Obama's dream.
If Israel must act prior to January 2013 then she will act alone and face condemnation from the world.
Which is exactly why Israel will proceed with their plans irrespective of Zero's desires or threats. If Israel does nothing, they may be annihilated with Nukes, whereas, if they should attack Iran, they face only the possibility of US action against them. In the first scenario, complete destruction but in the second, because of political and American citizens resistance, only possibility of destruction!
My moneys on the scenario that they hit Iran.
Will Israel face Iran alone? As long as Obama resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue they will.
“Will Israel face Iran alone? As long as Obama resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue they will.”
I would rise in support of Israel and so would millions more. So, NO, not alone.
Thereby ending his Presidency.
I wonder if decades of living under the MAD ( Mutually Assured Destruction) umbrella has made the West unable to fathom that there are indeed fanatics who can’t wait to nuse a nuclear weapon. The Iranian mullahs have said many times that they would be OK with 25-50 million Iranians dying if Israel if wiped out. And yes, Israel can turn ALL of Iran into nothing, but it won’t do the Israelis any good if their country is obliterated in the first strike..
They will have secret, clandestine, behind-the-scenes support from Saudi Arabia among others.
Israel is more than capable of facing Iran alone. The only thing they seem to lack is the capability to make Iran appear to have a nuclear “accident”, with plausible deniability. For that they’ll need a stealth cruise missile to deliver a big nuke to the weapons fabrication facility. That nuke would have to be ground penetrating, so the blast would come from underground as if it had originated in the facility.
Complicated, but maybe they can pull it off. I know for sure WE could, but just as surely WE WON’T (not with the current administration).
Don’t believe it. He is the CinC. His orders will be obeyed.
Of course, if Israel gives Obama advance warning, that information will be promptly conveyed to Iran. Obama has been trying to suck up to Iran ever since he was elected, in hopes of a “grand bargain.”
If James Baker could give the USSR advance warning right before the 1991 Iraq War bombing started (which the Russians promptly conveyed to Saddam Hussein), why wouldn’t Obama do likewise with Iran?