ARG poll puts Gingrich up 27/20 over Romney in Iowa

Hotair ^ | 11/26/2011 | ED MORRISSEY

[SeekAndFind]

I missed this ARG poll from just before Thanksgiving, taken over the course of a week among 600 likely Iowa caucus-goers, but it’s worth a look now. The top line results show Newt Gingrich moving into first place over Mitt Romney, 27% to 20%, with Ron Paul not too far back in third at 16%. No other candidate gets double digits in this result.

That more or less lines up with what other polling has shown. A survey taken a week previous to ARG’s by Rasmussen showed an even more substantial lead for Gingrich, 32/19, with Herman Cain falling into third place with 13%, and Paul fourth at 10%. Cain’s continued decline seems to have continued into the next week, perhaps giving Paul more support in the same period.

In the ARG series, this is Gingrich’s best showing since April, when he came in third behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. The bimonthly survey series never showed Gingrich completely out of the running in Iowa, sticking at 8% over the summer while Michele Bachmann peaked at 21% in July and Romney peaked at the same 21% in late September. Thanks to the timing of the ARG surveys, the Cain boomlet never shows up on this series, and he’s back to the same 6% he had in September. Ron Paul, however, has hit the highest level of support in the series, better than July’s 14%, but he’s still not broken above third place.

There are a couple of intriguing points in the internals. First, Gingrich has a huge lead among Republicans (30/17 over Romney) but tanks to 3% among independent caucusgoers, while Romney leads 38% to Ron Paul’s 28% in this demographic. Gingrich nearly gets a majority of Tea Party supporters (42%), but comes in a distant second among those who don’t identify with the Tea Party, 29/13 behind Romney and just ahead of Paul’s 12%. But perhaps the most indicative figure — for now, anyway — is Gingrich’s substantial lead among the most likely to attend a caucus, 32/17 over Paul, a group that comprises 74% of the sample. Among the other 26%, Romney leads 38/12 over Gingrich and Paul.

Enthusiasm seems to be on Gingrich’s side. Romney can claim some moral victory and momentum with a second-place finish no matter who wins, but a Gingrich win will complicate his ability to argue inevitability and lock down the nomination in South Carolina.

On the other hand, we’ve gotten a lot of e-mail about a PAC-funded survey that shows Ron Paul and Herman Cain tied for the lead in Iowa at 22% each, with Gingrich at 21% and Romney at 17%. However, since that survey got funded by the Revolution PAC — the super-PAC backing Paul — it should be taken with a Lot’s Wife-sized grain of salt.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

These other so called contenders can kiss his butt to try for a good job.

What's Newt going to win, the county dog catcher seat? If you think independents and women will be flocking to his candidacy then I've got a bridge...

[TitansAFC]

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Conservatism, experience, results, eloquence, statesmanship, knowledge.
SERIOUS solutions to SERIOUS problems!
The Conservative who practices Capitalism and gets hated for it!

---Newt Gingrich 2012

Newt Ahead in another poll in Iowa that includes polling after the CNN debate!!! :-)

[not2worry]

There is quite a large contingent in Florida who didn't want Newt in the first place because his moral compass always seemed pointed in the wrong direction,

now that coupled with his platform on amnesty for illegals, Floridians are moving away from him

I doubt if you see Florida's Tea Party Candidates, Senator Marco Rubio or Governor Rick Scott anywhere near Newt!

[not2worry]

Newt in Florida and South Carolina?

You obviously have never lived in the South!

[BfloGuy]

The Iowa caucuses will be even more interesting than usual this year. I can't wait to compare the results to the polling as it is apparently more difficult to identify likely caucus-goers than it is to screen for likely voters. I suspect Gingrich and Romney are overestimated and Cain underestimated in most of these -- but time will tell.

And since I'm still smarting from my marvelous prediction that the Repubs would hold Congress in 2006, I ain't predicting nothing.

[jpsb]

I don’t have any idea who is going to benefit from Newt embracing amnesty for illegals. But I am pretty sure Newt will be going down in the polls. Conservatives will be saying good-bye to Newt over this issue. Just like they left Perry over it.

[writer33]

There might be a sizable pro-divorcing your wife on her deathbed

That whole story has been debunked by his daughter. I'm not making a case for Newt, but that was flat out lie by the lib media.

[Hawthorn]

Looks as if the Iowa Evangelicals prefer a twice-divorced/three-times-married Catholic convert to a Mormon!

[07Jack]

The South is the biggest hope for Conservatives. I’m hoping Newt and Romney spilt in the Lib Northeast and West Coast opening the door up for a Conservative (ie: Cain)to sweep the South to the nomination.

[campaignPete R-CT]

There are 400,000 unaffiliated voters in IA. If Mitt can identify and drag 10,000 of these extra votes to the caucuses (they must register R at the caucus site), that likely puts him over the top with a total caucus turnout of 120,000.

His huge lead among the independents is stunning and is a cause for alarm.

ronPaul does well in the caucus states because of the relative low turnout. Turnout is less than 10% in many caucus states.

[right tech]

I often wonder if a majority of republicans are rino’s and conservatives don’t have enough numbers to vote in anyone worth having.

[Irish Eyes]

Paul’s numbers continue to astound me. He’s solid in areas of fiscal and monetary policy but a train-wreck everywhere else. As far as I can figure he’s become somewhat of a cult figure.

It is almost as if there is a third party splitting the vote.

[newzjunkey]

I think after Tuesdays debate the polls are going to move away from Newt. We’ll see.

Perhaps among people who want fantasies fed. Watch any of the candidates. Who is proposing way to actually address the 11m already here, what are they proposing and who is dancing around it while hoping activist groups will think mass deportations will come?

Newt first talked about this at the Reagan library debate months ago and it got little attention. Now that he's risen some in the polls people are looking for attack vectors even if their own chosen candidate is no better, worse, or outright AWOL on the issue.

[newzjunkey]

The following behind Ron Paul is fascinating. I’ve seen stickers for Ron Paul and even a giant banner “Ron Paul Revolution” at a well traveled freeway offramp in San Diego.

[murron]

Reagan lost Iowa in 1980. I don’t remember where he placed, but it wasn’t first.

[Fred]

Herman Cain on Illegal Immigration




If you're thinkin like me - Let's drain the swamp in D - C...Go Cain.

[no dems]

Gingrich has a huge lead among Republicans (30/17 over Romney) but tanks to 3% among independent caucusgoers,
WOW!!! That's a little disconcerting.

[BunnySlippers]

People will stay home if Newt is the “answer”. Newt has burned too many bridges.

He is worse, if it is possible, than Romney.

[no dems]

this ARG poll from just before Thanksgiving, taken over the course of a week among 600 likely Iowa caucus-goers
Was it taken before, or after, the Debate when Newt gave a logical, sensible answer to the Illegal Immigration problem?

[9YearLurker]

Yep. This poll is from before Gingrich’s illegal immigration self-immolation.