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ARG poll puts Gingrich up 27/20 over Romney in Iowa
Hotair ^ | 11/26/2011 | ED MORRISSEY

Posted on 11/26/2011 1:27:05 PM PST by SeekAndFind

I missed this ARG poll from just before Thanksgiving, taken over the course of a week among 600 likely Iowa caucus-goers, but it’s worth a look now. The top line results show Newt Gingrich moving into first place over Mitt Romney, 27% to 20%, with Ron Paul not too far back in third at 16%. No other candidate gets double digits in this result.

That more or less lines up with what other polling has shown. A survey taken a week previous to ARG’s by Rasmussen showed an even more substantial lead for Gingrich, 32/19, with Herman Cain falling into third place with 13%, and Paul fourth at 10%. Cain’s continued decline seems to have continued into the next week, perhaps giving Paul more support in the same period.

In the ARG series, this is Gingrich’s best showing since April, when he came in third behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. The bimonthly survey series never showed Gingrich completely out of the running in Iowa, sticking at 8% over the summer while Michele Bachmann peaked at 21% in July and Romney peaked at the same 21% in late September. Thanks to the timing of the ARG surveys, the Cain boomlet never shows up on this series, and he’s back to the same 6% he had in September. Ron Paul, however, has hit the highest level of support in the series, better than July’s 14%, but he’s still not broken above third place.

There are a couple of intriguing points in the internals. First, Gingrich has a huge lead among Republicans (30/17 over Romney) but tanks to 3% among independent caucusgoers, while Romney leads 38% to Ron Paul’s 28% in this demographic. Gingrich nearly gets a majority of Tea Party supporters (42%), but comes in a distant second among those who don’t identify with the Tea Party, 29/13 behind Romney and just ahead of Paul’s 12%. But perhaps the most indicative figure — for now, anyway — is Gingrich’s substantial lead among the most likely to attend a caucus, 32/17 over Paul, a group that comprises 74% of the sample. Among the other 26%, Romney leads 38/12 over Gingrich and Paul.

Enthusiasm seems to be on Gingrich’s side. Romney can claim some moral victory and momentum with a second-place finish no matter who wins, but a Gingrich win will complicate his ability to argue inevitability and lock down the nomination in South Carolina.

On the other hand, we’ve gotten a lot of e-mail about a PAC-funded survey that shows Ron Paul and Herman Cain tied for the lead in Iowa at 22% each, with Gingrich at 21% and Romney at 17%. However, since that survey got funded by the Revolution PAC — the super-PAC backing Paul — it should be taken with a Lot’s Wife-sized grain of salt.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: argpoll; gingrich; newt; perry2012; romney
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1 posted on 11/26/2011 1:27:07 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Unfortunately, Romney is going to be difficult to eliminate.


2 posted on 11/26/2011 1:29:59 PM PST by Berlin_Freeper (For years the Left protested "the occupation of Iraq"- now they want to "Occupy" all across the US)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think after Tuesdays debate the polls are going to move away from Newt. We’ll see.


3 posted on 11/26/2011 1:30:27 PM PST by jpsb
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney’s counting on the conservatives being split. I’d love to see him come in fourth in every state primary or caucus. Maybe then he’ll get the message.


4 posted on 11/26/2011 1:31:23 PM PST by cotton1706
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To: SeekAndFind

Ask President Huckabee why it is so important to win in Iowa...


5 posted on 11/26/2011 1:32:16 PM PST by Yo-Yo (Is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: SeekAndFind

And Rick Perry is so irrelevant that they did not even want to waste the ink it would take to print his name.


6 posted on 11/26/2011 1:34:48 PM PST by trumandogz (In Rick Perry's Nanny State, the state will drive your kids to the dentist at tax payer expense)
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To: trumandogz

Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus Goers Nov 2011

Bachmann 6%
Cain 6%
Gingrich 27%
Huntsman 3%
Johnson -
Paul 16%
Perry 5%
Roemer -
Romney 20%
Santorum 6%
Other -
Undecided 11%


7 posted on 11/26/2011 1:46:22 PM PST by truthfreedom
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To: SeekAndFind

Regardless of what ‘some’ folks think of Newt, he will be far better than the alternatives... Romney or Obama.... and America is waking up to that fact.

Go Newt.....


8 posted on 11/26/2011 1:46:26 PM PST by Gator113 (~Just livin' life, my way~.. Newt/Palin-Bolton-2012."got a lot swirling around in my head.")
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To: SeekAndFind

Paul’s numbers continue to astound me. He’s solid in areas of fiscal and monetary policy but a train-wreck everywhere else. As far as I can figure he’s become somewhat of a cult figure.


9 posted on 11/26/2011 1:50:33 PM PST by bereanway
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To: Gator113
he will be far better than the alternatives... Romney or Obama....

Mr. Potato Head would be far better than Romney or 0bama.

10 posted on 11/26/2011 1:53:11 PM PST by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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Gingrich is looking good. I would assume that at some point the other people who want to be President will start using the time tested political campaign tools against Gingrich, like negative tv ads.

There might be a sizable pro-divorcing your wife on her deathbed (I know, the tumor wasn’t cancerous, etc) constituency, but I’m guessing there are very few who would be “More likely to vote for Gingrich if they knew that”.


11 posted on 11/26/2011 1:53:20 PM PST by truthfreedom
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To: bereanway

RE: Ron Paul

My one main fear is the man might run as an Independent. We have a significant number of Ron Paul Cultists in America who will ensure a second Obama term if this happens.


12 posted on 11/26/2011 1:55:27 PM PST by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: jpsb

AND move towards? You don’t have a clue.


13 posted on 11/26/2011 2:01:16 PM PST by 2007 Crusader (2007 Crusader)
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To: Gator113

Ditto what you said


14 posted on 11/26/2011 2:04:22 PM PST by sand lake bar (You have not converted a man because you have silenced him.)
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To: bereanway

Maybe a sizable number of people believe that “Conservative” means “smaller Government”, not “big government doing things that people who consider themselves Conservative like”.

He’s really the only one that people can trust to actually make cuts, because he’s the only one who actually votes against spending.

Some people believe that when the foreign policy is exactly the same whether it’s Bush, Clinton, Bush or Obama running the show, it really isn’t a “Conservative” foreign policy.


15 posted on 11/26/2011 2:04:53 PM PST by truthfreedom
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To: SeekAndFind

And if Ron Paul is the nominee, do you vote for Ron Paul in November 2012?

Does Bloomberg run as a 3rd party? Or Trump? Or Romney?

What “Ron Paul Cultists” are doing a lot of these days is calling Iowans in an organized fashion. Voter ID and GOTV.


16 posted on 11/26/2011 2:07:09 PM PST by truthfreedom
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To: bereanway
"As far as I can figure he’s become somewhat of a cult figure. "

Is he a Mormon too?

17 posted on 11/26/2011 2:07:26 PM PST by matthew fuller (I stand with Leroy!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m not sure what a Ron Paul third-party run would do. A lot of the youth vote that went to Obama last time would shift to Paul, as would the votes of the kind of leftists who think Obama has just followed in Bush’s footsteps because of his failure to shut down Gitmo and his Libya intervention.

I suspect he’d prove to be more of a John Anderson than a Ross Perot.


18 posted on 11/26/2011 2:13:55 PM PST by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know. . .)
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To: SeekAndFind

After Newt wins in SC and Florida, its all over. These other so called contenders can kiss his butt to try for a good job.
I’d appoint Christie Atty Gen. He can finally cleanup Holder’s mess.


19 posted on 11/26/2011 2:14:21 PM PST by 2007 Crusader (2007 Crusader)
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To: SeekAndFind
Ron Paul very well could run as a third party or independent. He could be the Ralph Nader of 2012 and throw the election out the window.

Big cheap narcissistic thrill for the nutcase perps, major headache and trouble for the nation.

20 posted on 11/26/2011 2:16:07 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: 2007 Crusader
These other so called contenders can kiss his butt to try for a good job.

What's Newt going to win, the county dog catcher seat? If you think independents and women will be flocking to his candidacy then I've got a bridge...

21 posted on 11/26/2011 2:20:10 PM PST by Reaganwuzthebest
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To: kalee; TitansAFC; onyx; LuvFreeRepublic; Sea Parrot; SweetCaroline; matthew fuller; Gator113; ...
The "Newt Gingrich for President" ping list!

If you want ON or OFF of the ping list, just let me know!

To whom it may concern: If you wish to give me BREAKING news, links, information, or tidbits for the purpose of (perhaps) having me post it at FR, your confidentiality WILL be kept by yours truly. I will tell NOBODY the source of my information.



Conservatism, experience, results, eloquence, statesmanship, knowledge.
SERIOUS solutions to SERIOUS problems!
The Conservative who practices Capitalism and gets hated for it!

---Newt Gingrich 2012

Newt Ahead in another poll in Iowa that includes polling after the CNN debate!!! :-)
22 posted on 11/26/2011 2:29:51 PM PST by TitansAFC (Mr. Cain, infanticide is not a "social decision," and it SHOULD be part of the political discussion!)
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To: truthfreedom
There is quite a large contingent in Florida who didn't want Newt in the first place because his moral compass always seemed pointed in the wrong direction,

now that coupled with his platform on amnesty for illegals, Floridians are moving away from him

I doubt if you see Florida's Tea Party Candidates, Senator Marco Rubio or Governor Rick Scott anywhere near Newt!

23 posted on 11/26/2011 2:33:15 PM PST by not2worry
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To: 2007 Crusader

Newt in Florida and South Carolina?

You obviously have never lived in the South!


24 posted on 11/26/2011 2:35:21 PM PST by not2worry
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To: SeekAndFind
The Iowa caucuses will be even more interesting than usual this year. I can't wait to compare the results to the polling as it is apparently more difficult to identify likely caucus-goers than it is to screen for likely voters. I suspect Gingrich and Romney are overestimated and Cain underestimated in most of these -- but time will tell.

And since I'm still smarting from my marvelous prediction that the Repubs would hold Congress in 2006, I ain't predicting nothing.

25 posted on 11/26/2011 2:39:42 PM PST by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)
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To: 2007 Crusader

I don’t have any idea who is going to benefit from Newt embracing amnesty for illegals. But I am pretty sure Newt will be going down in the polls. Conservatives will be saying good-bye to Newt over this issue. Just like they left Perry over it.


26 posted on 11/26/2011 2:48:27 PM PST by jpsb
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To: truthfreedom
There might be a sizable pro-divorcing your wife on her deathbed

That whole story has been debunked by his daughter. I'm not making a case for Newt, but that was flat out lie by the lib media.

27 posted on 11/26/2011 3:01:59 PM PST by writer33 (Mark Levin Is The Constitutional Engine Of Conservatism)
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To: SeekAndFind

Looks as if the Iowa Evangelicals prefer a twice-divorced/three-times-married Catholic convert to a Mormon!


28 posted on 11/26/2011 3:04:26 PM PST by Hawthorn
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To: not2worry

The South is the biggest hope for Conservatives. I’m hoping Newt and Romney spilt in the Lib Northeast and West Coast opening the door up for a Conservative (ie: Cain)to sweep the South to the nomination.


29 posted on 11/26/2011 3:04:37 PM PST by 07Jack
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To: SeekAndFind; TitansAFC

There are 400,000 unaffiliated voters in IA. If Mitt can identify and drag 10,000 of these extra votes to the caucuses (they must register R at the caucus site), that likely puts him over the top with a total caucus turnout of 120,000.

His huge lead among the independents is stunning and is a cause for alarm.

ronPaul does well in the caucus states because of the relative low turnout. Turnout is less than 10% in many caucus states.


30 posted on 11/26/2011 3:12:17 PM PST by campaignPete R-CT (I will go back to New Hampshire to campaign.)
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To: trumandogz

I often wonder if a majority of republicans are rino’s and conservatives don’t have enough numbers to vote in anyone worth having.


31 posted on 11/26/2011 3:32:13 PM PST by right tech
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To: bereanway
Paul’s numbers continue to astound me. He’s solid in areas of fiscal and monetary policy but a train-wreck everywhere else. As far as I can figure he’s become somewhat of a cult figure.

It is almost as if there is a third party splitting the vote.

32 posted on 11/26/2011 3:53:25 PM PST by Irish Eyes
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To: jpsb
I think after Tuesdays debate the polls are going to move away from Newt. We’ll see.

Perhaps among people who want fantasies fed. Watch any of the candidates. Who is proposing way to actually address the 11m already here, what are they proposing and who is dancing around it while hoping activist groups will think mass deportations will come?

Newt first talked about this at the Reagan library debate months ago and it got little attention. Now that he's risen some in the polls people are looking for attack vectors even if their own chosen candidate is no better, worse, or outright AWOL on the issue.

33 posted on 11/26/2011 4:53:16 PM PST by newzjunkey (Republicans will find a way to reelect Obama and Speaker Pelosi.)
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To: bereanway

The following behind Ron Paul is fascinating. I’ve seen stickers for Ron Paul and even a giant banner “Ron Paul Revolution” at a well traveled freeway offramp in San Diego.


34 posted on 11/26/2011 4:56:46 PM PST by newzjunkey (Republicans will find a way to reelect Obama and Speaker Pelosi.)
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To: Yo-Yo

Reagan lost Iowa in 1980. I don’t remember where he placed, but it wasn’t first.


35 posted on 11/26/2011 5:21:58 PM PST by murron (Proud Mom of a Marine Vet)
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To: murron; All
Herman Cain on Illegal Immigration




If you're thinkin like me - Let's drain the swamp in D - C...Go Cain.
36 posted on 11/26/2011 7:03:17 PM PST by Fred ("The terrorists' want to kill us, so we need to kill them first!" http://hermancain.com)
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To: SeekAndFind
Gingrich has a huge lead among Republicans (30/17 over Romney) but tanks to 3% among independent caucusgoers,
WOW!!! That's a little disconcerting.
37 posted on 11/26/2011 7:43:49 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: Berlin_Freeper

People will stay home if Newt is the “answer”. Newt has burned too many bridges.

He is worse, if it is possible, than Romney.


38 posted on 11/26/2011 7:46:35 PM PST by BunnySlippers (I LOVE BULL MARKETS . . .)
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To: SeekAndFind
this ARG poll from just before Thanksgiving, taken over the course of a week among 600 likely Iowa caucus-goers
Was it taken before, or after, the Debate when Newt gave a logical, sensible answer to the Illegal Immigration problem?
39 posted on 11/26/2011 7:47:31 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: Berlin_Freeper

Yep. This poll is from before Gingrich’s illegal immigration self-immolation.


40 posted on 11/26/2011 8:04:26 PM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: The_Reader_David

Has Ralph Nadar crawled out from under his rock yet?


41 posted on 11/26/2011 8:24:38 PM PST by I_be_tc
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To: Hawthorn
Looks as if the Iowa Evangelicals prefer a twice-divorced/three-times-married Catholic convert to a Mormon

Or maybe Iowan Evangelicals are really CHRISTIAN and don't presume to judge another on sins of many years ago when the man has admitted them, asked for forgiveness and has been practicing being a good Christian since.

MAYBE some Christians observe the 10 Commandments and don't presume to judge.

Some who call themselves Christians don't act Christian...ergo, have some self retrospection to attend to? . Altho' they many not have succumbed to the same 'sins' as Newt did - I rather suspicion they can't look in the mirror and say "I am sinless. I am pure"

"A clear conscience if usually the sign of a poor memory.

42 posted on 11/26/2011 8:47:16 PM PST by maine-iac7 (A prudent man foreseeth the evil,... but the simple pass on, and are punished. Prov 23:3 KJV)
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To: jpsb; All
I think after Tuesdays debate the polls are going to move away from Newt. We’ll see.

If the dedicated half-truthers have any thing to say about it - right?


43 posted on 11/26/2011 10:31:51 PM PST by maine-iac7 (A prudent man foreseeth the evil,... but the simple pass on, and are punished. Prov 23:3 KJV)
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To: 2007 Crusader; jpsb
AND move towards? You don’t have a clue.

True that. But he/she does have a passionate goal: Newt bashing - with half truths

44 posted on 11/26/2011 10:37:38 PM PST by maine-iac7 (A prudent man foreseeth the evil,... but the simple pass on, and are punished. Prov 23:3 KJV)
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To: writer33

There might be a sizable pro-divorcing your wife on her deathbed (I know, the tumor wasn’t cancerous, etc)

That was the sentence, which you took half of.

There was no debunking. She was in the hospital. FACT.
She was having a tumor removed. FACT. Newt went to the hospital and discussed the terms of the divorce while there.

The daughter is in no position to debunk something her mother said.


45 posted on 11/26/2011 11:00:39 PM PST by truthfreedom
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To: Reaganwuzthebest

Independents and women are a challenge, but given the actual history of Newt’s background, I think they will come around.

If Perry is going to make a surge, it had better be soon. If he could pull a monster debate performance out of the hat, then that would make people sit up and take notice. The story line would be: “Inexperience overcome.”

Cain is down right now, and I don’t see 999 becoming a hot topic again. He, too, will have a problem with independents and women. Also with pro-lifers. Like it or not, the allegations hurt him, so did the pro-choice comments, and so did the foreign policy gaffes. What does Cain have to do? He has to make himself believable again.

Santorum’s inability to get traction puzzles me. He’s a friendly man, a very bright and deep man, and a solid pro-life, pro-family candidate. He’s very articulate, knowledgeable, and determined. Can it be lack of money? If he’s going to make a bold move, the time is now.

Bachmann is another I don’t think is coming back, but what do I know. I believe she was stero-typed by the mental retardation thing, her repetitions about obamacare, lawyer, mother of 24, and her caustic attacks on other candidates. While she might injure those opponents, it doesn’t leave their former supporters with a pleasant taste about you in their mouths. I do not want to injure her ability to hold onto her seat in Congress.

Paul has a rabid, vocal following, and my fear is not a third party with Paul. I would fear just as much these paulistas turning in mass to the libertarian party. I do believe Rand Paul could abort that if he spoke out. Paul’s foreign policy comments doom him, but his following is large, and they will need a bone.

In my mind this is a Gingrich/Perry/Romney race right now, with Cain in the wings and Bachmann and Santorum on hold.


46 posted on 11/27/2011 3:06:53 AM PST by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of our Troops PRAY for their VICTORY!)
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To: Reaganwuzthebest

Independents and women are a challenge, but given the actual history of Newt’s background, I think they will come around.

If Perry is going to make a surge, it had better be soon. If he could pull a monster debate performance out of the hat, then that would make people sit up and take notice. The story line would be: “Inexperience overcome.”

Cain is down right now, and I don’t see 999 becoming a hot topic again. He, too, will have a problem with independents and women. Also with pro-lifers. Like it or not, the allegations hurt him, so did the pro-choice comments, and so did the foreign policy gaffes. What does Cain have to do? He has to make himself believable again.

Santorum’s inability to get traction puzzles me. He’s a friendly man, a very bright and deep man, and a solid pro-life, pro-family candidate. He’s very articulate, knowledgeable, and determined. Can it be lack of money? If he’s going to make a bold move, the time is now.

Bachmann is another I don’t think is coming back, but what do I know. I believe she was stero-typed by the mental retardation thing, her repetitions about obamacare, lawyer, mother of 24, and her caustic attacks on other candidates. While she might injure those opponents, it doesn’t leave their former supporters with a pleasant taste about you in their mouths. I do not want to injure her ability to hold onto her seat in Congress.

Paul has a rabid, vocal following, and my fear is not a third party with Paul. I would fear just as much these paulistas turning in mass to the libertarian party. I do believe Rand Paul could abort that if he spoke out. Paul’s foreign policy comments doom him, but his following is large, and they will need a bone.

In my mind this is a Gingrich/Romney race right now, with Perry and Cain in the wings and Bachmann and Santorum on hold. Paul is there and his following is large enough for him to expect respect. I don’t know how to trade supporters, but if he can do that, then he might negotiate a cabinet position at the IRS. That would be fun, actually.


47 posted on 11/27/2011 3:14:11 AM PST by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of our Troops PRAY for their VICTORY!)
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To: bereanway

The ‘Blue Republicans’ who are really dems or socialists/marxists account for a portion of his ‘devotees’! They want him to bring about ‘world peace’!
Vote for Paul and you will end up with soetoro/obama for 4 more years.
How selfish/stupid can a voter be to vote in such way as to keep in power a usurper/dictator/anti-American/anti-constitution, divisive, hyprcritical liar who is hell-bent on destroying America?


48 posted on 11/27/2011 4:25:42 AM PST by chrisnj
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To: maine-iac7
"True that. But he/she does have a passionate goal"

Lol, I was a big supporter of Newt until Newt pulled this amnesty stuff for illegals. Sorry I just can't go there.

49 posted on 11/27/2011 6:13:31 AM PST by jpsb
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To: xzins
You think they'll come around? Not going to happen anymore than it did for McCain, and for even more polarizing reasons. Expect a daily barrage of negative Gingrich stories that will make the very unfair ones on Sarah Palin look tame in comparison.

It will work to gut his campaign. Newt already has tons of baggage that make him immensely disliked and such stories will just reinforce that. And what's worse, he's not even conservative. So why are we doing this when there's viable alternatives?

Totally agree with you on Santorum, he let us down with Specter but he's a still a good candidate who could sell nationally.

Latest rumor is Palin may get back in and at this point I would almost beg her to do it because I'm beginning to sense that some conservatives are once again falling for the McCain trap.

50 posted on 11/27/2011 7:29:37 AM PST by Reaganwuzthebest
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