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Team Obama's Pathway to 270
National Journal ^ | November 28, 2011 | Josh Kraushaar

Posted on 12/03/2011 6:35:12 PM PST by neverdem

Make sure to read The New York Times's Jim Rutenberg's excellent overview of Team Obama's 2012 strategy, which involves a healthy heaping of negative attacks on the Republican nominee sprinkled with helpful reminders about the president's counterterrorism successes.

But one nugget about the electoral map caught my eye. Rutenberg writes:

Obama's team acknowledges that it is not likely that the stars will align as well for them in 2012. But, having won in 2008 with 365 electoral votes when 270 are needed, they believe they have 95 to spare next year. That buys a lot of breathing room. Mr. Obama could lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa and Indiana and still win re-election -- though that would mean having to win just about every other state he won last time...

Mr. Messina also said the campaign would focus on holding on to the "New South" states of Virginia and North Carolina that Mr. Obama won last time. It has gone all-out with its plan to have the Democratic convention in Charlotte in September.

That's a roundabout way of saying that Obama's team is focusing on winning Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado (and Michigan/Wisconsin in the Democratic-leaning column) as its most logical pathway to 270 electoral votes.  It means that, despite the spin they're focused at winning every state, they feel that their best chance of securing 270 electoral votes is through the upscale, white-collar coalition that propelled Obama to victory in 2008 - one I outlined in my column earlier this month.   It explains the administration's decision to punt on the Keystone XL pipeline, for fear of alienating environmentalists that make up an important constituency in many of these states.

It also means Obama's pathway to victory is awfully narrow.  Under this map, Obama could win with 270 electoral votes, to the Republican's 268. And it would include carrying North Carolina, the home of the Democratic convention next year, which Obama only won by 14,000 votes in 2008.

The spin shows that while Obama's team is putting an optimistic face on its prospects, its path to victory is getting narrower.

UPDATE: Also note, from Julie Pace's AP dispatch, that the White House is emphasizing VP Joe Biden's campaign role in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Floirda over Obama's.Those three traditional battleground states were included on the list of states Obama could lose and still win 270 electoral votes.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election; obama
Obama to Blue-Collar America: Adios!
1 posted on 12/03/2011 6:35:17 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Just got a lot easier.

This week’s lesson. No proof or evidence is any longer required if the target is a conservative. All that matters is that the accusations have have been made

Now that the political establishment media scumbags on both sides have decide “Accusation equals proof” these same tactics of political lynching will be used against EVERY Conservative GOP candidate for Senate and House in 2012.

So enjoy your Pyrrhic victory today morons. These same sleazy tactics the GOPbots mediabots were so quick to embrace and pimp will now be used against their candidates.


2 posted on 12/03/2011 6:38:54 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: neverdem

no chance of North Carolina/Virginia...

the GOP should challenge obozo to run on his record EVERY step of the way and dare the criminal liberal media to do the same...and when they shill for obozo demand to know from the criminal liberal media why obozo is not running on his record...


3 posted on 12/03/2011 6:40:26 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: neverdem

Zer0 one NH????


4 posted on 12/03/2011 6:48:07 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: MNJohnnie

It is called the 5th column (MSM). And the 6th column is the educational system in the US.


5 posted on 12/03/2011 6:52:59 PM PST by blasater1960 (Deut 30, Psalm 111...the Torah and the Law, is attainable past, present and forever.)
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To: God luvs America

Obama could get 40% of the vote in VA, NC, and generally and win, if Trump gets 30% and the Republican nominee gets 30%. Or perhaps win with 45% if Romney is the Republican nominee and gets 43% while 12% goes to a conservative third-party candidate. Or even Obama 45%, Romney 25%, conservative candidate 30%.


6 posted on 12/03/2011 6:58:53 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: Verginius Rufus

third party candidate guarantees obama victory. I have yet to see however how with current demographics how he can loose.


7 posted on 12/03/2011 7:08:25 PM PST by griswold3 (Character is Destiny)
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To: neverdem

Mr. Obama could lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa and Indiana and still win re-election
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Baloney! No one in Modern history has been elected President without carrying at least 2 of these 3 States: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.


8 posted on 12/03/2011 7:10:13 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: neverdem

Mr. Messina also said the campaign would focus on holding on to the “New South” states of Virginia and North Carolina
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Obozo will not carry either of these two states. I don’t care if they do have the DemocRAT Convention in NC, they will not win VA and NC.


9 posted on 12/03/2011 7:13:26 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: God luvs America; All

the GOP should challenge Obozo to run on his record EVERY step of the way....
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

That’s why Newt is going to challenge Obozo to 7 Lincoln-Douglas style Debates. If he refuses, Newt will follow him around America. Four hours after Obozo makes a speech Newt will be in the same city, refuting the President and his policies. Invest in Orville Redenbacher Popcorn. This is gonna be good. (If Newt is the nominee.)


10 posted on 12/03/2011 7:21:44 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: Verginius Rufus
I believe that Trump hates Obozo so badly that he will not run as a Third Party Candidate and hand him reelection on a silver platter. There really is not enough time now, to organize a Conservative Third Party and get their candidate(s) on the ballots in all 50 States.
Anyone who runs on a Third Party Ticket, knowing they are guaranteeing Obozo's reelection, will be the most hated man, or woman, in America.
11 posted on 12/03/2011 7:29:51 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: griswold3

I have yet to see however how with current demographics how he can loose.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter by double digits two weeks before the Election; yet, he won in a landslide. Carter conceded before the polls closed in California. Obozo is the 21st Century Jimmy Carter.


12 posted on 12/03/2011 7:33:08 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: no dems

Trump speaks very negatively of Obama, but he is such an egotist that he may think he can win it all running as an independent candidate. His plan may be to hold the debate he has announced and afterwards announce that none of the candidates is good enough so he will run himself.


13 posted on 12/03/2011 7:52:59 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: neverdem
I don't think Obama is highly unlikely to win both NC and VA again. Also winning IN again would be a long shot. And since Marco Rubio is almost guaranteed to be the vice presidential nominee that also very likely takes FL off the table for them as well.

All the GOP has to do is win these:

Very likely: IN, NE-2
Likely: FL, NC, VA
Somewhat likely: OH

And just one of ANY of these:
PA, MI, NJ, WI, CO, IA, NV, NM, NH

14 posted on 12/03/2011 8:00:56 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: neverdem

Reading this thread title, I thought that President Obama finally figured out how to golf 270 games in a year. I’m sure he has people on the payroll figuring out how to do that very thing.


15 posted on 12/03/2011 8:03:29 PM PST by Infralutheran
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To: griswold3
third party candidate guarantees obama victory. I have yet to see however how with current demographics how he can loose.

If by he, you mean Obama, then look at the 2010 election results. The GOP got 60 % of the white vote. That never happened before. He's alienated the rats historical base of Jacksonian Democrats and ethnic working class whites. His environmental policies are economic disasters for those working in conventional energy industries and the rest of us paying for it.

16 posted on 12/03/2011 8:08:39 PM PST by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

A third party candidate will give 0 the election. I believe FReepers will either stay home or not vote for president, and that’ll help 0, too.


17 posted on 12/03/2011 9:00:04 PM PST by ExCTCitizen (Cain/West 2012....what would the RACISTS LIBERALS say???)
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To: ExCTCitizen

Anyone staying home on election day knowingly giving zero a second term is a traitor and a disgrace.


18 posted on 12/03/2011 9:03:11 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: no dems

There is no freaking way, Obama wins Virginia. Having a popular governor and the way virginia has turned red, Obama cannot find enough votes in northern virginia to offset the rural southern vrigina.

North carolina is an iffy state. I think, Obama will loose it but it will be very close. The demographics of this state is changing so fast due to implants from north. It all depends on Wake county.


19 posted on 12/03/2011 9:14:06 PM PST by Ranjit
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To: no dems

Add in that Obama is not going to win in Wisconsin in 2012.


20 posted on 12/03/2011 9:15:34 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: GlockThe Vote

What does that make the people who force an unacceptable nominee on those people and make them not vote?


21 posted on 12/03/2011 9:18:05 PM PST by Ingtar (Newt (four more for Obama) & Mitt (Obamacare) - what wonderful choices!)
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To: Ingtar

Obamais seeking to collapse this nation. If I had to vote for madoff or John Wayne Gacy over Bama I would.


22 posted on 12/03/2011 9:19:12 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: Secret Agent Man

Add in that Obama is not going to win in Wisconsin in 2012.
______________________________________________________________

For real??? I hope you’re right. The Union thugs are so vile in WI, if they drive Gov. Scott Walker from office, WI could go for Obozo. Am I right or wrong?


23 posted on 12/03/2011 9:21:57 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: Norman Bates

I don’t think Obama is highly unlikely to win both NC and VA again. Also winning IN again would be a long shot. And since Marco Rubio is almost guaranteed to be the vice presidential nominee that also very likely takes FL off the table for them as well.


Could you please clarify??? You DON”T think Obama is highly UNLIKELY to win...

so that double negative means he is highly likely to win both NC and VA???

Also, why is Rubio “almost guaranteed” to be VP?
Source?


24 posted on 12/03/2011 9:27:50 PM PST by bushwon ("If you think healthcare is expensive now, wait till it is free"--PJ O'rourke)
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To: no dems
No one in Modern history has been elected President without carrying at least 2 of these 3 States: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Correct. It dates back more than 100 years. The last person to do it was Grover Cleveland in 1892.

25 posted on 12/03/2011 9:35:35 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: no dems

They won’t get Walker out of office. the people here don’t want him out. The union thugs and teachers do, but they are a tiny minority.

They will waste a lot of time and money for nothing. Which is fine, they will taste defeat again.

And then we will defeat Baldwin when former Gov. Thompson wins over the lesbian hyper-liberal tammy baldwin, and Obama doesn’t win Wisconsin.


26 posted on 12/03/2011 9:40:10 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: Infralutheran

President Obama was recently asked by the press what what the result of America losing 2 million more jobs for the next 2 years would be and he replied... “FORE!”


27 posted on 12/03/2011 9:42:21 PM PST by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: Secret Agent Man

Well, this is great news....from your lips to God’s ears. BTW, how ‘bout those Badgers? YeeeHaaaw!!! GO BADGERS, WIN THE ROSE BOWL!


28 posted on 12/03/2011 9:45:18 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: Verginius Rufus

Lord, I hope not. It’s really getting too late for Trump or anyone to get a Third Party run organized.


29 posted on 12/03/2011 9:50:18 PM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: Norman Bates

Also keep in mind Senate races, which are heavily skewed in red states in 2012, including VA, FLA, NV, MO, MT, IN and in battleground states like MI, WI, PA, NJ, OH.

In a Republican year, these races will bury the Obamunist at the top of the ticket.


30 posted on 12/03/2011 10:45:14 PM PST by Senator Goldwater
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To: Secret Agent Man
They won’t get Walker out of office. the people here don’t want him out. The union thugs and teachers do, but they are a tiny minority.

They will waste a lot of time and money for nothing. Which is fine, they will taste defeat again.

And then we will defeat Baldwin when former Gov. Thompson wins over the lesbian hyper-liberal tammy baldwin, and Obama doesn’t win Wisconsin.

Lets pray on that.

I'm convinced that Wisconsin is ground zero for this next election. I always thought it was odd how the democratic party and the unions and all these left wing groups were pouring such massive amounts of cash, and time and manpower into one state over one issue. Why here, why this, and why now ?

And then it hit me, they need this state, and they need to be able to get away with voter fraud (again), thats why it was so important to get rid of that judge (and they failed), to turn the legislature (and they failed) and now they are going after Walker (btw, that "recall" effort, actually started......right after election day, it was quieter then, just the groundwork, but the domain name was bought as soon as he was elected).

The Obama machine, will not rest or sleep, until they remove any or every obstacle, they can, and like a rat trapped in a corner, they are desperate, they are going to dig up every corpse, spend any amount of money, do whatever it takes, to get Walker out, if they fail, that could be the end of them.

Also note, I'm not thinking Thompson wins the primary, from what I understand, DeMint and the tea party and the conservative orgs are all backing Neuman in this race.

31 posted on 12/04/2011 12:56:10 AM PST by Sonny M ("oderint dum metuant")
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To: MNJohnnie

The sad reality is this: DEFAMATION of character pays off. What the last Herman Cain accuser did would be regarded as a MAJOR SIN.


32 posted on 12/04/2011 3:24:37 AM PST by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: Secret Agent Man

Walker will still be in.


33 posted on 12/04/2011 3:26:55 AM PST by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: neverdem

The south will go solid GOP next year. Remember this is the Bible Belt we are talking about, even with some northern transplants.


34 posted on 12/04/2011 3:30:10 AM PST by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: blasater1960

And the 7th column is the union mentality.


35 posted on 12/04/2011 4:52:03 AM PST by Ann Archy ( ABORTION...the HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: no dems

Obama will also not carry Florida. There are still more common sense past or present “makers” in Fla than “takers”.


36 posted on 12/04/2011 4:52:37 AM PST by AlphaOneAlpha
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To: MNJohnnie
All that matters is that the accusations have have been made

Does anyone else find it strange that NO women have been 'found' in Obama's life before Michelle?


http://michellemalkin.com/2011/11/14/michelles-women-for-obama-versus-obamas-women/  excerpt:

 




 

 

So I’m asking you to join me, and women all across the country who support this movement. I’m asking you to say you’re ready to work.

Join Women for Obama, and help us grow this organization:

http://my.barackobama.com/Women-for-Obama

Thank you for being a part of this,

Michelle

 

 

Guess Mrs. Obama missed out on the brouhaha raised by Obama’s women in the White House who don’t believe they got a “fair shake.”

Flashback:

Now, some of the actual women who served in the White House are bemoaning the “hostile workplace” at 1600 Pennsylvania:

Friction about the roles of women in the Obama White House grew so intense during the first two years of the president’s tenure that he was forced to take steps to reassure senior women on his staff that he valued their presence and their input.

At a dinner in November 2009, several senior female aides complained directly to the president that men enjoyed greater access to him and often muscled them out of key policy discussions.

Those tensions prompted Obama, urged on by senior adviser Valerie Jarrett, to elevate more women into senior White House positions, recognize them more during staff meetings and increase the female presence in the upper ranks of the reelection campaign. “There were some issues early on with women feeling as though they hadn’t figured out what their role was going to be on the senior team at the White House,” Jarrett said in an interview Monday. “Most of the women hadn’t worked on the campaign, and so they didn’t have a personal relationship with the president.”

…One of the most striking quotes in the book came from former White House communications director Anita Dunn , who was quoted as saying that, “this place would be in court for a hostile workplace. . . . Because it actually fit all of the classic legal requirements for a genuinely hostile workplace to women.”

Dunn says she was quoted out of context and told The Post on Friday that she told Suskind “point blank” that the White House was not a hostile work environment.

Except that, er, she did say that:

On Monday, Suskind allowed a Post reporter to review a recorded excerpt of the original interview, which took place over the telephone in April. In that conversation, Dunn is heard telling Suskind about a conversation she had with Jarrett.

“I remember once I told Valerie that, I said if it weren’t for the president, this place would be in court for a hostile workplace,” Dunn is heard telling Suskind. “Because it actually fit all of the classic legal requirements for a genuinely hostile workplace to women.”

Oops.

37 posted on 12/04/2011 5:07:19 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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To: neverdem

It’s game over if he loses PA.


38 posted on 12/04/2011 6:10:18 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: bushwon

Right. I think Obama is highly unlikely to win both those states.


39 posted on 12/05/2011 8:27:29 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: bushwon
Also, why is Rubio “almost guaranteed” to be VP? Source?

Instinct.

40 posted on 12/05/2011 8:32:57 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: neverdem

It’s an obscenity that with the country being in dire straits its glorious leader is given a perty good chance for re-erection.

This is where the parliamentary systems have a clear advantage over our, arguably, archaic political system.

The president there with a guaranteed certain length of his service is a ceremonial clown with some rights to approve or disapprove of legislation, and that is all!

The prime minister, or premier, is the executive on the hot seat, with no guarantees as to the term of his employment. This is how it ought to be or you get what we are having, a King George for 4, and very likely for 8 years. Having executives that can be fired, even if every few months (as the Italians once did), is the protection for the people against abusers such as this bona fide Communist.


41 posted on 12/05/2011 8:53:11 PM PST by Revolting cat! (Let us prey!)
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To: Norman Bates

The Repub’s will not lose CO this year.
No Fraud for the Rats.


42 posted on 12/05/2011 9:00:47 PM PST by Balata (It's 'WE THE PEOPLE' Obama, not 'WE THE SHEEPLE'!)
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To: neverdem

He will lose NC. VA is not going to be easy. I would hope the turnout in Ohio and Florida is enough. Gore lost because of TN.


43 posted on 12/05/2011 9:04:44 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
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