RUGGED INDIVIDUALISM AND FREE MARKETS NEVER WORK
Posted on 12/07/2011 11:52:05 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
China-geddon: A China crash will be scarier than Europe
Venky Vembu Dec 2, 2011
Say you’re at a railway station, waiting for the slow train to eurogeddon. You’ve been told that the eurozone is in deep trouble with all those piles of debt, that it will fall apart inevitably, dismembering the euro and inflicting pain and misery around the world.
Months go by, and although there’s a lot of shunting and hooting, and lots of frenetic activity, the eurogeddon train doesn’t steam in. You begin to grow impatient, and wonder if the train is coming at all. And then in the way that we all do, you crane your neck over the platform in the direction from which you expect the train to come.
And then, before you can say PIIGS, a monstrously big train steams in from the other direction on the same track – and knocks you down flat.
/snip
Speaking at a closed-door seminar in Shenyang a month ago, Lang revealed, among other things:
China’s economy, contrary to claims that it grew by 9.1 percent, is actually in recession, and contracting by perhaps as much as 10 percent.
China’s inflation rate, again contrary to government statistics putting it at 6.2 percent, is close to 16 percent.
China’s debt burden is about $5.7 trillion, more than the size of its economy. Of this, local government debt makes up about $2.5 trillion, and the liabilities of state-owned enterprises about as much.
And with the interest burden mounting at an exponential rate, he reckons it will all unravel rapidly.
In his assessment, China is just as bankrupt as any European peripheral country, and when the “economic tsunami” hits, it will be worse than what Japan experienced in the 1980s.
(Excerpt) Read more at firstpost.com ...
We will see if this pattern repeats in the future or the cycle is broken for good. As it stands now, I see the breakup and long period of multiple 'Chinas,' not China.
Chinese workers get raises for allowing them to buy more products—thus, inflation. And what costs them more, costs you more: inflation in imports to our USA from other countries. So it takes more US dollars to buy the foreign stuff, and our dollar falls internationally.
The rest of the piece is propaganda that makes us feel so good about trade imbalances.
Our manufacturing base is quite large still. In fact it is larger than China’s even now. One step further, China’s is really there to sell to the U.S. so there is a lot to think about. America has an excellent base to grow out of anything but this is assuming we can get the Marxist out of the White House first.
The global security ramifications of such a thing cannot be understated, in my opinion.
There must be viable possibilities for extending western intelligence networks into disgruntled territories in order to soften the landing for the west if it does break apart.
There is a ghost city in Mongolia that is still under development and nobody lives there. You can’t keep supporting the military burden of garrisoning your territories, the cost of force projection, AND the ‘jobs’ programs necessary to keep the peasants out of the cities.
China is the most important and fascinating thing not being talked about right now. All eyes are on Europe, the inevitable.
“I realy, realy hope this isn’t true...”
On the bright side such a collapse would shut up the Andy Sterns of the world who tout China as a model for the US. It would also weaken their military build-up and de-rail their global ambitions.
“They need to find jobs for millions of them every year and now they can’t. The government is trying to prevent peasants from entering the cities looking for work. It is, in the long run, untenable.”
Not if you are willing to kill millions of people.
China has been in a construction frenzy and has new ghost cities which are essentially desserted.
even so, how will city dwellers learn to farm or eat?
The U.S. is in debt and debt is growing by 4 billion per day. Is that manufacturing prosperity? Hell no. China is lending the U.S. trillions. The U.S. will collapse soon unless we bring back manufacturing jobs and that means banning imports from China and other countries.
What you say about the U.S. having more manufacturing than China is another media lie.
The U.S. has only 11 million workers in “manufacturing” as the gov defines it. In reality probably less. And those jobs are disappearing fast hence the U.S. decline.
This “base” will soon erode as most countries including China are ripping the U.S. off.
China has more than 100 million workers in manufacturing.
A company can pay a worker in China 1/20 what they pay an American worker. So that's unfair and so we have to ban almost all China products and those of other countries soon or we won't have any manufacturing nor any jobs left at all soon.
“China has been in a construction frenzy and has new ghost cities which are essentially desserted. even so, how will city dwellers learn to farm or eat?”
If there are ghost cities its not because of a lack of people. If millions of peasants are moving to cities the problem would seem to be how they learn to work in factorys. Im not sure why the city dwellers would need to farm.
Sounds like a good way to clear out the trillions in Treasury debt that we now owe them.
Well all know about Gordon Chang’s book 10 years ago about the coming collapse of China. Fast forward 10 years later, and so far, he is still wrong. So, I dunno, maybe the likes of Gordan Chang and the author of this article are correct, but they maybe off by 30-40 years. So, it might happen in 2050 or so, who knows. One thing I do know, Chang has been wrong for 10 years so far, and counting.
For the most part, it is true. There was a massive property bubble that is now bursting, in fact Beijing property prices are now down 20% already. Their bubble is proportionately bigger than ours, and will crash harder. Furthering the damage, during the top of any boom there is always a misallocation of capital that pursues more and more economically marginal investment.
Things that appeared to make sense during the boom will appear insane afterwards. China beats everyone by a mile in this regard, building whole unnecessary cities, spending 500 million on the opening ceremony of the Olympics, etc. They also over invested in the manufacturing and export sector, and as a result have extra industrial capacity just when everyone else, including their biggest trading partner Europe, is collapsing.
Also, their wages have been growing now, and factories are moving to other, lower wage countries.
If it gets anywhere near that bad, we will start seeing riots and violence against Han in the outer territories, such as already has happened in the Muslim territories. If the Han start moving in to the center, that will be a signal China may crack up.
Some of that extra industrial capacity is in counterfeiting all kinds of goods, which they make a fortune on by ripping us off. For example, lots of fake silver and gold American coinage on eBay, cheap plating over bronze. We produce real goods, while they take the time to produce fakes ripping off the rest of the world.
Let’s not forget the 40,000,000 Chinese men that have no date. Their policy has created an imbalance between men and women to the tune of 40,000,000 men.
40,000,000 completely disposable people from a military point of view.
Let’s not forget the 40,000,000 Chinese men that have no date. Their policy has created an imbalance between men and women to the tune of 40,000,000 men.
40,000,000 completely disposable people from a military point of view.
I really, really wish I knew how to spell...
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