Skip to comments.EDITORIAL: Close the Strait of Hormuz
Posted on 12/13/2011 5:34:03 PM PST by jazusamo
Iran has more to lose than America in current standoff
Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Go ahead, make our day. On Monday, Parviz Sarvari, a member of the Iranian parliament's national security committee, said, Soon we will hold a military maneuver on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure. Closing the strategically important strait has long been viewed as one of Irans trump cards in the give-and-take with the United States and the West.
The impact of a strait crisis is overrated. About 17 percent of the worlds imported oil, or a third of oil transported by sea, goes through the strait. This is significantly less than the percentages from decades past when the Persian Gulf region was the global center of oil exports. Whether the temporary halt of that much oil would have a serious impact is questionable. Past regional crises have not lived up to their billing. There were warnings before Operation Desert Storm that the war would create an oil shock of incalculable consequences. Speculators drove prices up before the conflict in 1990, but in 1991, oil prices declined, even with Kuwaits oil fields in flames. Similar warnings were heard regarding the disruptions that attended Operation Iraqi Freedom, but there were no gas lines, no chronic oil shortages.
Iran would suffer more than the United States from closing the strait. Irans economy is highly dependent on oil exports; closing the strait would cut off most of that trade.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
Bring on cold-fusion! Who needs oil.
I guess maybe four hours would be needed to sink their entire navy. Maybe five.
As zer0 works hard to reverse this trend with moves like effectively killing Keystone, placing roadblocks to oil drilling in the gulf, Alaska.
I’d say your right on the money and the Straight would be off limits to their allies as of then.
Let’s see...How did that Suez crisis turn out. I was in third grade. I remember concluding at that young age that these arab folks were nuts. Haven’t change my mind.
Our bombing of their only refinery that produces gasoline might cear up the the strait.
Well said. In my lifetime we’ve not had another president work so hard against the USA, even Carter wasn’t close.
Since the Chinese are major customers and about 1/3 of their total supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz, they’ve got to be plenty pleased with their supplier. /s
Customer service? What’s that?
“What happens if the United States decides to ban Iranian ships from the strait? If the U.S. Navy closes the Hormuz, it will stay that way.”
Best statement in the article
Hey, another informed Obamamite.
All they have to do is sink a ship or two and the strait is closed..
The straits can be closed by land based artillery and missile batteries. The status of Iran’s navy is of little importance then.
They don’t even have to do anything. Just move units into position and announce on maritime channels that the straits are closed. No tanker captain is going to even try it.
Cruise missiles solve this problem or am I overly optimistic?
Potentially less useful than the scud hunt in western Iraq during the Gulf War. Which is to say that other than for diplomatic reasons, useless.
The missile units could easily be hidden in buildings in a twenty mile or more radius deploy, fire and be hidden again in less than ten minutes. A tanker could be laser targeted from the shore, eliminating even much of a radar signal to eliminate.
Then again, maybe the Iranians don’t move anything close. Just daring the tankers would be enough. Why risk assets that could be used against an American carrier fleet in that big bathtub called the Persian Gulf.
Given modern missile technology the US navy is nothing more than a giant floating target. Iranian and military sources note that the linkage Sorouri made between the capture of the RQ-170 and the naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz was intended to inform Washington that Tehran in possession of the drone no longer fears the ability of the naval air carriers the US has deployed in the Persian Gulf to prevent its closure of the strategic waterway.
There is a reason American military officers express grim concern over the tactics used by Iranian sailors last weekend: a classified, $250 million war game in which small, agile speedboats swarmed a naval convoy to inflict devastating damage on more powerful warships.
In the days since the encounter with five Iranian patrol boats in the Strait of Hormuz, American officers have acknowledged that they have been studying anew the lessons from a startling simulation conducted in August 2002. In that war game, the Blue Team navy, representing the United States, lost 16 major warships an aircraft carrier, cruisers and amphibious vessels when they were sunk to the bottom of the Persian Gulf in an attack that included swarming tactics by enemy speedboats.
The plastics industry:
The pharmaceutical industry:
The asphalt industry:
Yes, those industries do indeed need oil. And they can get it here and in Canada.
Truth is, Iran needs to sell petroleum and pistachio nuts (its other big export) more than we have need to import those items. Yes, we do grow pistachios, in California.
Bingo. If Obama had any balls, he would be on TV tonight saying that would be the consequence. And in the next several days two mysterious events should occur. The drone that Iran has magically blows up. The other is the USS Pueblo blows up. The latter is just because I hold grudges and the F'n Norks need to be put down a notch. Of course the pussy-in-chief will do none of these things even if Iran closes the strait.
IF they had a nuke the best use of it (from their perspective) would be to set it off near our carriers. I know they couldnt get close, but would they?
Iran doesn’t have the ability to make anything out of that drone
But CHINA and Russia sure do!
Hmmm sounds problematic. So what do we do assuming we have the will to respond? How do we go about winning that battle? Boots on the ground?
How is it the drones don’t have some kind of self destruct mechanism?
Cobra64 is right about those industries in #21.
>>>”Yes, those industries do indeed need oil. And they can get it here and in Canada.”<<<
One wonders why it is taking (and has taken) so much time for the US, Canada, and others such as Australia to wake up to the reality of ever increasing dependency on foreign oil imports!
For example & for one thing, Australia, given its population & its own sources for energy, should be fairly independent. BUT, a report in 2010 said otherwise, especially in terms of future projections. “If action is not taken now, Australia will be almost entirely dependent on oil imported from some of the most volatile parts of the world for our transport and security needs within 10 years.” - http://www.mynrma.com.au/about/media/pr-2010-dependence-on-foreign-oil-at-our-door.htm
>>>”About 17 percent of the worlds imported oil, or a third of oil transported by sea, goes through the strait.”<<<
I think 17% is inaccurate.
Between 40 to 30 percent of world’s oil is exported thru Strait of Hormuz - according to one report (2007) - http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/070326_iranoil_hormuz.pdf - Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz account for roughly 40% of all world traded oil...
Let’s get this over with.
Diplomatically convince Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and UAE to connect their pipeline networks and use a port on the west coast of Saudi Arabia.
Near term, The US and regional allies tell Iran that any closure of the straits, whether backed by armed force or a bluff will result in the destruction of their refinery ability.
At least that is what I would do.
Let the gas price at the pump go up if this happens. I’ll pay 50 cents more per gallon for gas in order to weaken Obozo in November 2012. I’ll consider that my campaign contribution to stop his reelection.
space, weight, aerodynamics, that sort of reason
plus, they are supposed to go nose down and explode on their own anyways when they are shot down! :)
or flip over in flight and fall apart or something...
Assuming we had a competent leader, and also assuming we had a leader with cojones, who didn’t want to use the opportunity for a hopey, changey, kumbaya moment.
If there was an incident, he'd probably order the fleet in to pick up survivors from disabled ships. If they have any nukes yet, that's probably where they will be, waiting for us to get close enough.
Lots of "agile" speedboat vs. one A-10 is total slaughter. We would cut through the Iranian military like a hot knife through butter, just like we did with the Iraqi military. The mistake in Iraq and Afghanistan is "nation building". Let's not try to civilize the Iranians. Bust up their infrastructure, let them read by candlelight for a couple of generations and kill any of them that come near us. Germans did not mount a last ditch resistance because they knew we meant business. If someone took a potshot at American troops from the basement of a building, we leveled the building with artillery.
Go right ahead! Nothing would make me happier than to force us to get serious about domestic and western oil sources. Close it down, bankrupt the gulf Arabs while you’re at. We’ll get the pipeline done, start real domestic production, and generally get our asses in gear around here. What could be better than a national movement for energy independence to spite our enemies? Nothing motivates people more. He’ll, I’ll put an oil well in my yard if it will keep us from buying from the damn Muslims...
Heck, he wouldn’t even take out our own downed drone. If Zero had even one ball, the Iranians wouldn’t be playing this game.
That’s not the point. The sunken ships could render the narrow waterway un-navigable. Darn if you do and damned if you don’t
much better action