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EDITORIAL: Close the Strait of Hormuz
The Washington Times ^ | December 13, 2011 | Editorial

Posted on 12/13/2011 5:34:03 PM PST by jazusamo

Iran has more to lose than America in current standoff

Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Go ahead, make our day. On Monday, Parviz Sarvari, a member of the Iranian parliament's national security committee, said, “Soon we will hold a military maneuver on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure.” Closing the strategically important strait has long been viewed as one of Iran’s trump cards in the give-and-take with the United States and the West.

The impact of a strait crisis is overrated. About 17 percent of the world’s imported oil, or a third of oil transported by sea, goes through the strait. This is significantly less than the percentages from decades past when the Persian Gulf region was the global center of oil exports. Whether the temporary halt of that much oil would have a serious impact is questionable. Past regional crises have not lived up to their billing. There were warnings before Operation Desert Storm that the war would create an oil shock of incalculable consequences. Speculators drove prices up before the conflict in 1990, but in 1991, oil prices declined, even with Kuwait’s oil fields in flames. Similar warnings were heard regarding the disruptions that attended Operation Iraqi Freedom, but there were no gas lines, no chronic oil shortages.

Iran would suffer more than the United States from closing the strait. Iran’s economy is highly dependent on oil exports; closing the strait would cut off most of that trade.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: dogofislam; economy; iran; mutthamed; oil; saberrattling; straitofhormuz

1 posted on 12/13/2011 5:34:10 PM PST by jazusamo
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To: jazusamo

Bring on cold-fusion! Who needs oil.


2 posted on 12/13/2011 5:35:18 PM PST by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS U.S.A. PRESIDENT)
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To: jazusamo

I guess maybe four hours would be needed to sink their entire navy. Maybe five.


3 posted on 12/13/2011 5:36:15 PM PST by crghill (Silly Mormons, God is triune.)
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To: crghill
.


Yep ... and that includes the post-finale photo reconnassance to confirm the destruction ... followed by a 1,000 sailor BBQ aboard the closest U.S. aircraft carrier ...


.
4 posted on 12/13/2011 5:39:29 PM PST by Patton@Bastogne
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To: jazusamo
About 17 percent of the world’s imported oil ... goes through the strait. This is significantly less than the percentages from decades past...

As zer0 works hard to reverse this trend with moves like effectively killing Keystone, placing roadblocks to oil drilling in the gulf, Alaska.

5 posted on 12/13/2011 5:39:31 PM PST by C210N (Dems: "We must tax you so that we can buy our votes")
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To: crghill

I’d say your right on the money and the Straight would be off limits to their allies as of then.


6 posted on 12/13/2011 5:43:15 PM PST by jazusamo (The real minimum wage is zero: Thomas Sowell)
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To: jazusamo

Let’s see...How did that Suez crisis turn out. I was in third grade. I remember concluding at that young age that these arab folks were nuts. Haven’t change my mind.


7 posted on 12/13/2011 5:43:40 PM PST by Sacajaweau
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To: jazusamo

Our bombing of their only refinery that produces gasoline might cear up the the strait.


8 posted on 12/13/2011 5:45:38 PM PST by buffaloguy
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To: C210N

Well said. In my lifetime we’ve not had another president work so hard against the USA, even Carter wasn’t close.


9 posted on 12/13/2011 5:45:38 PM PST by jazusamo (The real minimum wage is zero: Thomas Sowell)
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To: SatinDoll

10 posted on 12/13/2011 5:57:31 PM PST by nikos1121
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To: SatinDoll

11 posted on 12/13/2011 5:57:31 PM PST by nikos1121
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To: SatinDoll

12 posted on 12/13/2011 5:58:09 PM PST by Drill Thrawl (The patient is too far gone to save.)
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To: jazusamo

Since the Chinese are major customers and about 1/3 of their total supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz, they’ve got to be plenty pleased with their supplier. /s

Customer service? What’s that?


13 posted on 12/13/2011 6:02:36 PM PST by GourmetDan (Eccl 10:2 - The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left.)
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To: jazusamo

“What happens if the United States decides to ban Iranian ships from the strait? If the U.S. Navy closes the Hormuz, it will stay that way.”

Best statement in the article


14 posted on 12/13/2011 6:05:32 PM PST by Figment
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To: Drill Thrawl

Hey, another informed Obamamite.


15 posted on 12/13/2011 6:08:04 PM PST by Jonty30 (If a person won't learn under the best of times, then he must learn under the worst of times.)
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To: Jonty30

All they have to do is sink a ship or two and the strait is closed..


16 posted on 12/13/2011 6:30:26 PM PST by Hojczyk
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To: crghill

The straits can be closed by land based artillery and missile batteries. The status of Iran’s navy is of little importance then.

They don’t even have to do anything. Just move units into position and announce on maritime channels that the straits are closed. No tanker captain is going to even try it.


17 posted on 12/13/2011 6:33:31 PM PST by Hawk1976 (It is better to die in battle than it is to live as a slave.)
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To: Hawk1976

Cruise missiles solve this problem or am I overly optimistic?


18 posted on 12/13/2011 6:39:18 PM PST by crghill (Silly Mormons, God is triune.)
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To: crghill

Potentially less useful than the scud hunt in western Iraq during the Gulf War. Which is to say that other than for diplomatic reasons, useless.

The missile units could easily be hidden in buildings in a twenty mile or more radius deploy, fire and be hidden again in less than ten minutes. A tanker could be laser targeted from the shore, eliminating even much of a radar signal to eliminate.

Then again, maybe the Iranians don’t move anything close. Just daring the tankers would be enough. Why risk assets that could be used against an American carrier fleet in that big bathtub called the Persian Gulf.


19 posted on 12/13/2011 6:52:29 PM PST by Hawk1976 (It is better to die in battle than it is to live as a slave.)
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To: jazusamo

Given modern missile technology the US navy is nothing more than a giant floating target. Iranian and military sources note that the linkage Sorouri made between the capture of the RQ-170 and the naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz was intended to inform Washington that Tehran in possession of the drone no longer fears the ability of the naval air carriers the US has deployed in the Persian Gulf to prevent its closure of the strategic waterway.

Not new: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/12/washington/12navy.html

There is a reason American military officers express grim concern over the tactics used by Iranian sailors last weekend: a classified, $250 million war game in which small, agile speedboats swarmed a naval convoy to inflict devastating damage on more powerful warships.
In the days since the encounter with five Iranian patrol boats in the Strait of Hormuz, American officers have acknowledged that they have been studying anew the lessons from a startling simulation conducted in August 2002. In that war game, the Blue Team navy, representing the United States, lost 16 major warships — an aircraft carrier, cruisers and amphibious vessels — when they were sunk to the bottom of the Persian Gulf in an attack that included swarming tactics by enemy speedboats.


20 posted on 12/13/2011 6:55:05 PM PST by FightThePower! (Fight the powers that be!)
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To: SatinDoll
Who needs oil.

.

The plastics industry:

.

The pharmaceutical industry:

.

The asphalt industry:

.

21 posted on 12/13/2011 6:55:57 PM PST by Cobra64 (Common sense isn't common anymore.)
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Comment #22 Removed by Moderator

To: Cobra64

Yes, those industries do indeed need oil. And they can get it here and in Canada.

Truth is, Iran needs to sell petroleum and pistachio nuts (its other big export) more than we have need to import those items. Yes, we do grow pistachios, in California.


23 posted on 12/13/2011 7:01:10 PM PST by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS U.S.A. PRESIDENT)
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To: buffaloguy
Our bombing of their only refinery that produces gasoline might cear up the strait.

Bingo. If Obama had any balls, he would be on TV tonight saying that would be the consequence. And in the next several days two mysterious events should occur. The drone that Iran has magically blows up. The other is the USS Pueblo blows up. The latter is just because I hold grudges and the F'n Norks need to be put down a notch. Of course the pussy-in-chief will do none of these things even if Iran closes the strait.

24 posted on 12/13/2011 7:18:03 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (Maxine, I'll see you there. I'm not changing my ways.)
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To: FightThePower!
To: jazusamo Given modern missile technology the US navy is nothing more than a giant floating target.

US Naval leaders want no part of the Gulf

Carriers are nothing but targets when near land based missiles
25 posted on 12/13/2011 7:23:22 PM PST by uncbob
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To: Patton@Bastogne

IF they had a nuke the best use of it (from their perspective) would be to set it off near our carriers. I know they couldnt get close, but would they?


26 posted on 12/13/2011 7:25:35 PM PST by Vermont Lt (I just don't like anything about the President. And I don't think he's a nice guy.)
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To: Ajnin; FARS

Iran doesn’t have the ability to make anything out of that drone

But CHINA and Russia sure do!


27 posted on 12/13/2011 7:28:08 PM PST by RaceBannon (Ron Paul is to the Constitution what Fred Phelps is to the Bible.)
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To: Hawk1976

Hmmm sounds problematic. So what do we do assuming we have the will to respond? How do we go about winning that battle? Boots on the ground?


28 posted on 12/13/2011 7:33:02 PM PST by crghill (Silly Mormons, God is triune.)
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To: Vermont Lt
.


Good point ...


However, U.S.N. carriers will NOT enter the Gulf until the Iranian Navy is destroyed, along with ALL military radar installations and missile sites ...

However, all of those Iranian assets can be easily destroyed by forward-deployed naval and land-based (B2 bombers in Diego Garcia) airpower, and surface-sub launched cruise missiles ...


The Saudi oil refineries and ports ... and Israel ... are in the biggest danger from Iranian missiles ....


However, again ... those Iranian missiles can be defeated (the few that actually get launched) bu U.S. Patriot III missiles (very deadly) and the Isreali BMD system ...


All of this accounts as to WHY the Persians are making so much bay-crying noise ... they can't do SQUAT militarily ...


.
29 posted on 12/13/2011 7:36:31 PM PST by Patton@Bastogne
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To: RaceBannon

How is it the drones don’t have some kind of self destruct mechanism?


30 posted on 12/13/2011 7:40:33 PM PST by crghill (Silly Mormons, God is triune.)
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To: SatinDoll; Cobra64; jazusamo

Cobra64 is right about those industries in #21.

>>>”Yes, those industries do indeed need oil. And they can get it here and in Canada.”<<<

One wonders why it is taking (and has taken) so much time for the US, Canada, and others such as Australia to wake up to the reality of ever increasing dependency on foreign oil imports!

For example & for one thing, Australia, given its population & its own sources for energy, should be fairly independent. BUT, a report in 2010 said otherwise, especially in terms of future projections. “If action is not taken now, Australia will be almost entirely dependent on oil imported from some of the most volatile parts of the world for our transport and security needs within 10 years.” - http://www.mynrma.com.au/about/media/pr-2010-dependence-on-foreign-oil-at-our-door.htm


31 posted on 12/13/2011 8:10:37 PM PST by odds
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To: jazusamo

>>>”About 17 percent of the world’s imported oil, or a third of oil transported by sea, goes through the strait.”<<<

I think 17% is inaccurate.
Between 40 to 30 percent of world’s oil is exported thru Strait of Hormuz - according to one report (2007) - http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/070326_iranoil_hormuz.pdf - Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz account for roughly 40% of all world traded oil...


32 posted on 12/13/2011 8:11:17 PM PST by odds
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To: jazusamo

DO IT!!!

Let’s get this over with.


33 posted on 12/13/2011 8:55:01 PM PST by mowowie
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To: crghill

Diplomatically convince Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and UAE to connect their pipeline networks and use a port on the west coast of Saudi Arabia.

Near term, The US and regional allies tell Iran that any closure of the straits, whether backed by armed force or a bluff will result in the destruction of their refinery ability.

At least that is what I would do.


34 posted on 12/13/2011 9:18:15 PM PST by Hawk1976 (It is better to die in battle than it is to live as a slave.)
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To: jazusamo; All

Let the gas price at the pump go up if this happens. I’ll pay 50 cents more per gallon for gas in order to weaken Obozo in November 2012. I’ll consider that my campaign contribution to stop his reelection.


35 posted on 12/14/2011 4:04:25 AM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: crghill

space, weight, aerodynamics, that sort of reason

plus, they are supposed to go nose down and explode on their own anyways when they are shot down! :)

or flip over in flight and fall apart or something...


36 posted on 12/14/2011 5:01:19 AM PST by RaceBannon (Ron Paul is to the Constitution what Fred Phelps is to the Bible.)
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To: crghill

Assuming we had a competent leader, and also assuming we had a leader with cojones, who didn’t want to use the opportunity for a hopey, changey, kumbaya moment.


37 posted on 12/14/2011 7:03:58 AM PST by libs_kma (When I see anyone with an Obama 2012 bumper sticker, I recognize them as a threat to the gene pool)
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To: libs_kma
Assuming we had a competent leader, and also assuming we had a leader with cojones, who didn’t want to use the opportunity for a hopey, changey, kumbaya moment.

If there was an incident, he'd probably order the fleet in to pick up survivors from disabled ships. If they have any nukes yet, that's probably where they will be, waiting for us to get close enough.

38 posted on 12/14/2011 7:12:05 AM PST by tacticalogic
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To: FightThePower!
a classified, $250 million war game in which small, agile speedboats swarmed a naval convoy to inflict devastating damage on more powerful warships.

Lots of "agile" speedboat vs. one A-10 is total slaughter. We would cut through the Iranian military like a hot knife through butter, just like we did with the Iraqi military. The mistake in Iraq and Afghanistan is "nation building". Let's not try to civilize the Iranians. Bust up their infrastructure, let them read by candlelight for a couple of generations and kill any of them that come near us. Germans did not mount a last ditch resistance because they knew we meant business. If someone took a potshot at American troops from the basement of a building, we leveled the building with artillery.

39 posted on 12/14/2011 7:38:12 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (Ceterum autem censeo, Obama delenda est.)
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To: jazusamo

Go right ahead! Nothing would make me happier than to force us to get serious about domestic and western oil sources. Close it down, bankrupt the gulf Arabs while you’re at. We’ll get the pipeline done, start real domestic production, and generally get our asses in gear around here. What could be better than a national movement for energy independence to spite our enemies? Nothing motivates people more. He’ll, I’ll put an oil well in my yard if it will keep us from buying from the damn Muslims...


40 posted on 12/14/2011 10:48:20 AM PST by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives" - Ataturk)
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To: ConservativeInPA

Heck, he wouldn’t even take out our own downed drone. If Zero had even one ball, the Iranians wouldn’t be playing this game.


41 posted on 12/14/2011 10:51:47 AM PST by americanophile ("this absurd theology of an immoral Bedouin, is a rotting corpse which poisons our lives" - Ataturk)
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To: crghill; All

That’s not the point. The sunken ships could render the narrow waterway un-navigable. Darn if you do and damned if you don’t


42 posted on 12/14/2011 6:53:26 PM PST by FARS (Be Healthy, Happy and Thrive)
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To: buffaloguy

much better action


43 posted on 12/14/2011 6:54:57 PM PST by FARS (Be Healthy, Happy and Thrive)
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