Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

PPP: Paul leads Iowa, Gingrich drops to 3rd (Poll analysis from Ed Morrissey and others)
Hot Air ^ | 12/19/2011 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 12/19/2011 6:48:12 AM PST by TBBT

PPP says that they are polling likely Republican caucus-goers, but there’s a reason for a little skepticism on their sample. At 597 respondents, the size is respectable enough, but its composition and definition of “likely” is quite shaky. Only a little over half (55%) bothered to caucus with Republicans in 2008, an election primary with as much publicity and import as this one. Thirteen percent caucused with the Democrats, which is reasonable because (a) Democrats aren’t conducting a primary this cycle, and (b) some who caucused with Democrats might be inclined to support Republicans this year.

However, almost a third (32%) didn’t caucus with either party in 2008. How can they be considered “likely” caucus-goers in this cycle? It can’t be because Ron Paul is running this time, because he was running in 2008 as well.

There are other reasons for skepticism. RealClearPolitics notes two other polls taken in almost the same timeframe as PPP’s survey, and Paul was below 20% in both (Rasmussen and Insider Advantage). They all show fairly close margins, but the PPP looks like a bit of an outlier — at least for now.

(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; ia; news
If Iowa picks Ron Paul as its caucus winner, two things will result. First, Mitt Romney will probably run the table as Republicans everywhere else but Iowa recoil in horror. Second, Iowa will likely end up losing whatever cachet it has managed to build over the last three decades as a first-in-the-nation proving ground for presidential candidates, and the drumbeat to unseat both Iowa and New Hampshire from the front end of the primary system will prove irresistible.

Update: Neil Stevens also expresses considerable skepticism with PPP’s sample:
The problem with the poll is that it’s just not likely to be true, though. We have a benchmark for evaluating this poll: 2008 Iowa caucus entrance polls. The partisan alignment is all wrong: In 2008 the caucuses, being closed of course, included 86% self-identified Republicans, 13% self-identified Independents who presumably registered Republican to caucus, 1% Democrats, 1% “Other.” PPP’s poll drops the Republican proportion to 75%, raises Independents to 19%, and raises Democrats to 5%. Guess who’s helped by both of those shifts, which are far outside the Margin of Error and so predict genuine, large shifts in the partisan makeup of the closed Iowa caucuses. That’s right: Ron Paul, who wins 40% of Democrats, 34% of Independents, but only 19% of Republicans according to the poll.

There are three broad possibilities: The 2008 entrance polls are wrong. The 2012 Republican caucuses will find huge new turnout from independent voters showing up and registering Republican. The PPP poll has systemic issues and is not meaningful.

Other suspicious bits: Do we really believe that 36% of “Very liberal” Iowa caucusers went for Mike Huckabee and not Rudy Giuliani or John McCain? Do we believe the Republican Party’s makeup has shifted so that John McCain would have tied for second in Iowa in 2008? That’s what PPP says: Huckabee 26%, Romney and McCain 19%. Remember that the actual result was Huckabee 34, Romney 25, Fred Thompson 13, McCain 13.

There is no doubt that Paul was picking up some momentum in this race, but the PPP poll seems way too problematic for any conclusions about its current state.

Might want to wait for other polls before getting more excited. Of course that won't stop the media - whose analysis won't go beyond the headlines.


My guess. I suspect Newt's support has softened a bit. A multimillion dollar negative ad barrage waged simultaneously by 3 separate campaigns is taken a toll. It's a shame that stuff like that works.

I don't see Paul winning Iowa, unless that state has gone completely insane. Paul us serving a purpose for the establishment. He's aiding the effort to prevent the Not Romney coalescing. Once Paul has served his purpose in Iowa, the long knives will come out for him (re. Ron Paul Newsletter, (9/11 truther, etc.)

1 posted on 12/19/2011 6:48:18 AM PST by TBBT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: TBBT
Ron Paul will stay in until the convention, and may run as an Ind after that.

That turd wont drop out, and the turds supporting him will keep doing so. Damn few of them will vote Republican in Nov.

2 posted on 12/19/2011 6:55:15 AM PST by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

597 is not a valid sample..


3 posted on 12/19/2011 6:55:57 AM PST by goseminoles
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Nothing surprises me anymore, but I’m not believing this. Ron Paul is not going to win Iowa.


4 posted on 12/19/2011 6:56:22 AM PST by Lady Lucky (Merry Christmas to all!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

My guess. I suspect Newt’s support has softened a bit. A multimillion dollar negative ad barrage waged simultaneously by 3 separate campaigns is taken a toll. It’s a shame that stuff like that works.

IF it results in Bachmann winning then I say it was worth every dime. If it results in Paul winning then it failed.


5 posted on 12/19/2011 6:57:36 AM PST by napscoordinator (Anybody but Romney, Newt, Perry, Huntsman, Paul. Perry and Obama are 100 percent the same!!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goseminoles
597 is not a valid sample..

Actually that's not true. For a state poll it's a respectable sample size. In comparison, national level polls are commonly in the range of 1000. ]

What matters is what the actual composition of that 597 was and if it actually reflects the likely turnout.
6 posted on 12/19/2011 7:00:55 AM PST by TBBT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: TBBT
Is there really enough Paulies to sway Republicans in Ia? Wake up Iowa you have got to be kidding me. Even though Iowa will not determine who gets the GOP nod it would be a bit of an embarrassment for the GOP if Paul wins Ia.
7 posted on 12/19/2011 7:04:50 AM PST by mk2000
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Polls like this seek to torpedo Newt but will only make a Gingrich win more empowering to his future primaries.


8 posted on 12/19/2011 7:07:04 AM PST by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Polls like this seek to torpedo Newt but will only make a Gingrich win more empowering to his future primaries.


9 posted on 12/19/2011 7:07:26 AM PST by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Well, according to Fred Barnes’ logic, who in 2008 said that coming in 4th in Iowa was good for McCain, this should be good for Gingrich.

Barnes, of course was pushing McCain and would say anything to help him (Fred Thompson, who came in 3rd, was given nary a mention).


10 posted on 12/19/2011 7:08:53 AM PST by cotton1706
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

you can’t accurately predict the results of a caucus with a poll.

first of all, a caucus is as stupid way to choose your presidential candidate. a caucus is a mob. and apparently, iowa is a stupid place to go first. if deranged individuals like dr. nutz resonate in iowa, then iowa should be sent to the middle of the pack, where they can’t do any damage.


11 posted on 12/19/2011 7:11:47 AM PST by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT
Paul us serving a purpose for the establishment. He's aiding the effort to prevent the Not Romney coalescing. Once Paul has served his purpose in Iowa, the long knives will come out for him (re. Ron Paul Newsletter, (9/11 truther, etc.)

He's also providing the mechanism to keep the small-governemnt TP people in line with the establishment candidates, leaving a Hobson's choice to anyone wanting genuine constitutional restoration.

12 posted on 12/19/2011 7:13:22 AM PST by tacticalogic (e)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

If Paul’s support is really this deep, then we’re seeing clear evidence the Republican Party has resigned itself to its own disintegration. How anyone could support a nutcase whose foreign policy stances place himself to the left of even Obama is beyond me.

Further, I find hard to believe Iowa has so eschewed its addiction to federal ethanol subsidies that it’d fall in for the likes of Ron Paul.


13 posted on 12/19/2011 7:14:48 AM PST by ScottinVA (I miss America.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Paul winning helps one person...Romney.

Repubs, even Tea Party conservatives, will be so horrified with the thought of this loon winning the nomination, that they will coalesce around Romney, while holding their noses.


14 posted on 12/19/2011 7:15:30 AM PST by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Beagle8U

“Ron Paul will stay in until the convention, and may run as an Ind after that.

That turd wont drop out, and the turds supporting him will keep doing so. Damn few of them will vote Republican in Nov.”

Damn few of them were Republicans to begin with!


15 posted on 12/19/2011 7:17:04 AM PST by libdestroyer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TBBT
I don't see Paul winning Iowa

Actually, he might -- a hard core of supporters who will turn out no matter what is a big advantage in a caucus.

The root cause is that other Republicans just won't get serious about rolling back Big Government, thus opening a niche for Paul despite his foreign-policy baggage.

16 posted on 12/19/2011 7:17:28 AM PST by Burkean Buckleyite
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Beagle8U

I agree. I think that Ron Paul is the John McCain of the 2004 election. Ron Paul is getting massive support from interlopers (liberals voting in GOP caucuses/polls). I speak to Ron Paul drones here in Austin, and many of them don’t even vote. They just blindly and creepily follow Ron Paul like sick lemmings.


17 posted on 12/19/2011 7:18:10 AM PST by lormand (A Government who robs Peter to pay Paul, will always have the support of Paul)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TBBT
A multimillion dollar negative ad barrage waged simultaneously by 3 separate campaigns is taken a toll. It's a shame that stuff like that works.

No it isn't. As long as the facts are accurate, it's GREAT that "stuff like that works."

18 posted on 12/19/2011 7:21:20 AM PST by Huck (No.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Believe Pretty Piss-poor Polling at your own risk.


19 posted on 12/19/2011 7:23:11 AM PST by Free Vulcan (Vote Republican! You can vote Democrat when you're dead.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

If Ron Paul wins Iowa, all I can say is there are a lot of venal and/or stupid GOPers in Iowa. Of course his crazed minions will do everything they can to stack the deck. Meanwhile Bachmann is the only one in the field who has had the balls to really go after him. Good on her.


20 posted on 12/19/2011 7:24:08 AM PST by CitizenReporter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Burkean Buckleyite

In Iowa, If I am righ Ind and Dems are allowed to vote in Republican Primary. Hence forth Ron Paul is leading. Gingrich is loosing support & it was expected. Also, the more conservatives are getting some traction. Michelle, Sanatorum(going to surprise people with strong showing) but at the end of the day Mitt Romney with good organization will win Iowa.

Wrap it up guys ! All along it was mitt romney & we wasted all of our time by switching from michelle to perry to cain to gingrich and back to our establishment. Hope, mitt romney selects some real good conservative VP.


21 posted on 12/19/2011 7:28:20 AM PST by Ranjit
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Let’s hope this spells the end of Newts Candidacy.

His comments on the courts over the weekend has really hurt him.

There is still time for a REAL conservative to take the lead. Time is running out but there are two still in the fight that can rise to the occasion.


22 posted on 12/19/2011 7:34:50 AM PST by CSI007
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Let’s say Ron Paul wins Iowa. Mitt Romney wins NH. Newt wins SC and Fla. Who is in the lead? Newt. Next up Nevada where Newt has been polling well. I still like Newt to win this thing. But unfortunately, negative ads rather than substance are winning out in Iowa and if that carries from state to state - then I really give up. If this poll is accurate, Iowans either don’t care enough to pay attention or like to be told who to vote for and are too lazy to think for themselves. RON PAUL LEFT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND SHOULD BE RUNNING AS THE LIBERTARIAN PARTY NOMINEE AND WOULD WAIT FOR IRAN TO GET A NUKE UNDER THE NAIVE NOTION THAT IT’S SIMPLY NOT OUR BUSINESS, YET HE’S LEADING THE POLL. YOU MUST BE KIDDING.


23 posted on 12/19/2011 8:07:18 AM PST by larryleo (We all need to get Newtered!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Good catch by Morrissey on the details. There was another a month or so ago where roughly 30% of “likely” voters said they would even caucus.


24 posted on 12/19/2011 8:11:40 AM PST by GOPyouth ("We're buying shrimp, guys. Come on." - Dear Leader)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT
The problem with the poll is that it’s just not likely to be true, though. We have a benchmark for evaluating this poll: 2008 Iowa caucus entrance polls. The partisan alignment is all wrong: In 2008 the caucuses, being closed of course, included 86% self-identified Republicans, 13% self-identified Independents who presumably registered Republican to caucus, 1% Democrats, 1% “Other.” PPP’s poll drops the Republican proportion to 75%, raises Independents to 19%, and raises Democrats to 5%. Guess who’s helped by both of those shifts, which are far outside the Margin of Error and so predict genuine, large shifts in the partisan makeup of the closed Iowa caucuses. That’s right: Ron Paul, who wins 40% of Democrats, 34% of Independents, but only 19% of Republicans according to the poll.

According to this, the poll is obviously flawed. It's no secret that the goal is to demoralize conservatives/Gingrich supporters. One has to wonder why the tweaking of the parties. My guess would be that according to the actual caucus numbers, Gingrich is leading, Paul is second and Romney is 3rd. The pollsters decided to play with the numbers to make Paul 1st, Romney 2nd and Newt 3rd in order to demoralize conservatives into panicking and voting for Romney with the assumption that Gingrich can't win, come election day. Just a theory.

25 posted on 12/19/2011 8:17:47 AM PST by Proudcongal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: larryleo
Let’s say Ron Paul wins Iowa. Mitt Romney wins NH. Newt wins SC and Fla. Who is in the lead? Newt. Next up Nevada where Newt has been polling well. I still like Newt to win this thing. But unfortunately, negative ads rather than substance are winning out in Iowa and if that carries from state to state - then I really give up.

You're right about who would be in the lead by the time Nevada rolls around. But giving up is exactly the goal of the pollsters and establishment. Republicans don't like Romney, period. This isn't a general election, it's Republicans so the pollsters know they can't put Romney on top because it would be even more laughable than to have Paul on top. We have to hope that conservatives vote rather than give up which is exactly what the goal is.

26 posted on 12/19/2011 8:24:18 AM PST by Proudcongal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: TBBT
There are plenty of people who would benefit from Ron Paul doing well in Iowa. Very few of them are conservative and Republican.

The money and organization behind Paul's surge in Iowa isn't real and won't sustain very far into the primaries.

27 posted on 12/19/2011 8:36:12 AM PST by Tex-Con-Man (T. Coddington Van Voorhees VII 2012 - "Together, I Shall Ride You To Victory")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

It is time that the first primaries of the election season include several states on the same day. That way only REAL candidates, with real support can run a viable campaign in all states and not sway the future primaries by just concentrating on one state.


28 posted on 12/19/2011 9:57:18 AM PST by Laserman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson