Skip to comments.Real Clear Politics Polling Average 12/20/2011
Posted on 12/20/2011 8:08:32 AM PST by South40
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
The problem I have with the polling average is that it treats all samples sizes the same, which they are not. The intial weighing of the data should be done in accordance with sample size.
Not liking that Newt line, looks too much like Perry’s...and Romney will be the beneficiary with the little time that’s left.
Bye bye Newt.
“This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone December 15-18 2011, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults...”
Romney 24.20% Both business and Executive experience.
Paul 10.90% No executive experience. No Business experience.
Bachmann 8.55% No executive experience. Some business esperience.
Perry 7.35% Executive experience.
Santorum 3.81% No executive experience. No Business experience.
Huntsman 2.57% Executive experience.
Barak Obama - Everyday proof that lack of experience is a recipe for failure.
Isn’t it wonderful? Your effort to take Gingrich down is paying off. Just look at those gains for ROmney! You must be overjoyed.
I wish for this also, although it brings up a further question about weighting of Likely Voter vs. Registered Voter (not to mention Adult) polls. An even more important issue is momentum. When there is a big shift in support, averaging in the oldest polls equally just throws everything off. They should weight based on the age of each poll.
I see a lot of complaining and disbelief about polls people don't like, but in my own attempts to develop predictions in 2008 and 2010, I've learned the hard way that the polls, properly understood within their limitations, do almost always tell the truth.
We may not like them, but about the only valid basis I have for disregarding a given poll now is another, better-conducted, poll. That is, citing particular anecdotal data or lines of argument rarely gets us closer to actual voting results, because that data is already reflected in the thinking of the electorate.
The Jihad lobbed everything at him, and he is still there.
Now he will start running his ads and go on offense.
RCP national poll averaging 6 polls conducted between 12/8 - 12/18.
Newt - 27.5%
Romney - 24.5%
Paul - 11.8%
Bachmann - 7.5%
Perry - 7.3%
Santorum - 3.7%
Huntsman - 2.3%
Important note: Of the six polls, the two oldest ones had Newt up by 10% and 6%. The three newest ones have Newt and Romney in a statistical tie.
Gingrich 28.99% No executive experience. No Business experience. Lots of conservative accomplishments (and, admittedly, liberal/progressive foot in mouthings).
Romney 24.20% Both business and Executive experience. No conservative accomplishments, lots of liberal/progressive accomplishments, as well as liberal/progressive foot in mouthings).
And I have problems with all of the polls that don’t weight their sample size by the appearance of conservative, moderate, liberal, and cross-over in Iowa, the US, or any state.
They weight by party when doing a head to head between the major party nominees, but they don’t reveal that they weight the sample by self-identified party niche within republican-only polls.
Newt’s issue is money. If he comes into big money to fight back with...and soon....then he’s in the race til the end.
RCP averaging poll at this late date does indicate mood and effects of ads and attacks from the dwarfs and Romney.
Newt is in a pickle in that he has none of the cash Romney does and FOX News despises him and is in the tank for Mitt so no help there.
Talk Radio is just standing by.
hence...if Rush and Levin don’t want Romney they should lend a hand.
but the real culprits are the also rans vying for a VP nod.
Bachmann in particular whom I supported once....now behaving rather petty hoping Mitt will choose her but he won’t. He will pick an on the fence big state person who brings electoral votes.
However...the big Mo from the early primaries will effect these polls so we shall see
Gingrich needs money. I suggest anyone who doesn’t want Romney send some.
I’m not sure that you’re correct about that.
Newt Gingrich, no executive or business experience???
I would count being “SPEAKER of the HOUSE” as executive experience and he has had a product that he was able to sell and to deliver while earning a profit, I would count that as being “Business Experience”.
those folks are still sour grapes Sarah flared off the blind and Cain imploded
I just sent Newt 250
I gave Sarah enough last time around and never got on the Cain Train.
Newt is our only hope against Romney at this point unless something dramatic happens first in Iowa, NH and SC
but those now attacking Newt here do so without top dog protection like they had when they ran nasty over their previous candidates
in fact they are in opposition to JR
wonder how they will fare being ugly outside the laagers
on another topic...why do we allow two eccentric states to set the first tone over nominations?
Iowa...God love em...pretty blondes and corn and beef...great stuff but Ron Paul? I mean seriously.
New Hampshire?....last holdout in the occupied Northeast but still...more libertarian than conservative
if you really want social conservative nominees then make Mississippi and Alabama and South Carolina first...closed primaries...winner take all
What NEWT really has is “EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCING THE CONSERVATIVE AGENDA” How much experience does Romney have doing this??
I wonder how many people on here are like myself and are truly depressed at the people in the GOP field...
I feel like many of the repubs are cool with 0 winning.
At least we should take the Senate...
I also have trouble getting behind Newt because his flame-out has already begun, for one thing. The other, is he lacks the funding to go the long haul. He's disorganized and missed the Missouri filing date already, just about to miss Virginia if he doesn't get his act together.
The way I see this is if enough Newt support would move over to Perry, along with Bachmann and Santorum supporters, then we have a viable CONSERVATIVE candidate with the money and organization to take Romney down.
If Newt had the warchest of Romney or Perry, then yes sir. I'd be with you. But he doesn't and isn't likely to get it.
“I just sent Newt 250”
Well, I’d like 250 also. Spewed coffee all over my keyboard and monitor when I heard of your donation.
Newt is part of the entrenched political establishment that’s created the problems we have now.
Go earn your own money.
Buy more coffee and a new keyboard.
What NEWT really has is EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCING THE CONSERVATIVE AGENDA How much experience does Romney have doing this??
None. Zero. In fact, he’s actually spent more time IN OFFICE advancing liberal causes. We really need to look at what these folks have done IN OFFICE, not outside of office. Yet we’re all in the circle, firing away.
I’m SICK of this naysaying and doom and gloom. We have a fine candidate in Newt. I’m with him all the way.
And hello Mitt!
Hope you’re happy.
I definitely think Mitt is a better choice than Newt.
Newt is clearly trending down.
This may come as a shock to you, but there are other candidates in this race besides Romney and Gingrich. Romney has zero chance of winning the GOP nomination, so if you are supporting Newt for the sole purpose of countering Romney, then you will get stuck with Newt. And more than likely, we all will get stuck with four more years of Obama.
“Go earn your own money”
Maybe I can do it like Newt at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Make your choice and the depression will lift. Quit wallowing in it.... Get behind whoever can take out Obama and get to work quickly to undo his damage in Washington...the fire there is raging and needs to be put out as formost to any other considerations.
If your family member was in that fire, about to loose their life who would you send in?....Newt, Perry , Bachmann, Santorum.....who can get the job done quickly and has the tools to do so at hand..... Decide and get on board to save our country.
“I definitely think Mitt is a better choice than Newt.”
Based on WHAT!?
Good!.......He'll get the job done and not about ready to let any stand in his way....all the others will be too soft and don't know their way around...and lack the tools to get the job done.... which is urgent to do.
Go Newt! Go!!!!!
Newt: Balanced 4 budgets, reformed welfare, gave the GOP its first majority in 40 years
Mitt: Ran to the left of Ted Kennedy, passed Obamacare, tied his dog to the roof of his car
I know there are other candidates, I firmly believe that Newt is by far the best. I can’t think of anyone running or not that I would prefer to Newt. He has the qualifications, abilities and the capabilities that the country needs at this time. If he is not the nominee I will vote for the Republican nominee even if I do have to hold my nose again. I’m not going to waste my time denigrating the other candidates or their supporters, it’s bad enough I may have to vote for one of them without having to think about the mud I threw at them.
The budgets in the late 90s weren’t really balanced.
A lot more then are willing to admit. Another effort in futility. Voters call themselves conservatives and then reject the true conservative candidates running. 2012 is starting to look uglier then 2008.
N. Leroy’s executive skills are sorely lacking. He couldn’t even hold on to the Speaker’s chair when his own Party was in power. Get the job done? Now that’s funny.
One person or even a few hundred people on a website cannot take down a candidate. If their support is that weak then they can’t possibly make it through the general against 0bama who’s going to have the full force of the media behind him. Gingrich can win if he can convince the majority of the base that he’s the best one for the job, just like the other candidates. His main concern right now should be maintaining his lead so that he doesn’t become the flavor of the month like the other candidates because the only ones left at the top are Romney and Paul.
I hate to admit it, but I agree with that assessment. (In no way is this an endorsement of Romney, but a scathing rejection of McNewt).
While I do not believe there is any way possible that Romney wins the GOP nomination, I also do not believe that there is any way McNewt beats Obama. We already saw that ending in 2008.
We can argue that, but any way you slice it, it was a hell of a lot better than what we have now.
And you thought it might be otherwise? Get real...everyone knows things are going to be nastier and uglier...count on it.
A skilled and competent executive leader would not have had to ‘leave’ the Speaker position.
DING DING DING !!! WE'VE GOT A WINNER !!!
The budget hasn't been balanced since 1969.
More bull-crap as usual. You step down when you see your own people ganging up on you....has nothing to do with competance or skill. Newt didn’t abandone his position..he was forced to step down as we all know....the blame lies in those who took that stand against him and played right into the hands of the opponets we are now fighting...who are not on our team.
Take your own advice. Politics is always an ugly effort.
I was referring to the choice of candidates being ugly, dummy!
It has everything do to with leadership ability, competence, and skill. No sailor mutinies against Lord Horatio Nelson. But they will readily mutiny against Captain William Bligh. Gingrich already proved that he is a Bligh, and not a Nelson. Which commander do you want leading your navy?