Posted on 12/21/2011 5:36:56 AM PST by TBBT
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa - Just two weeks before Iowa’s first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses there’s a new leader, but the race remains “remarkably fluid,” according to a new Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll likely Republican caucus-goers.
Texas Rep. Ron Paul has moved into first place – the fifth candidate to hold that spot since the mid-August Iowa GOP Straw Poll. The data collected between Dec. 8 and 18 suggest that unlike the previous frontrunners, Paul’s support is more solid.
Paul is the first choice of 27.5 percent of 333 likely caucus-goers among the 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents contacted by ISU. That’s up from 20.4 percent in an ISU/Gazette/KCRG poll in November. He’s followed closely by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich whose support increased from 4.8 percent to 25.3 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in at 17.5 percent, up from 16.3.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the only other candidate to poll in double digits at 11.2 percent – an increase from 7.9 percent a month earlier.
(Excerpt) Read more at kcrg.com ...
Paul is the first choice of 27.5 percent of 333 likely caucus-goers among the 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents contacted by ISU.
Representative?
His colleague, Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at Iowa State and associate professor of political science who assisted with the poll, says that suggests Paul “probably under-polls.”
“His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests,” Peterson says. “His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds.”
Paul is going to "under-poll" based on that? Wouldn't you expect just the opposite - that this is an indication that Paul is over-polling?
I'm still doubtful that the state of Iowa has gone that Bat Guano crazy and Paul will perform as well as these polls suggest.
Anybody here good at poll analysis?
Gosh I don’t like the top 4 at all. I think I am screwed this election. Come on Santorum and Bachmann. Conservatives HAVE to overcome the nightmare.
At least there is still a spark of sanity here. Romney’s millions in negative ads still has him down in 3rd.
The polls are ridiculous. Paul is nutso. The poll is just to confuse.
Go back and check Paul and Newt on the 8th and then again on the 18th.
i believe the big mo is going to Perry and believe the next recent poll will show this.
i don't believe the average Iowan is going to vote for Paul but a number of college kids who will never vote for a Republican will storm the Caucus in larger towns.
Even for folks who don’t like Ron Paul...aren’t you tickled he’s 10 points ahead of Mittens?
I would also bet Paul has almost all 200 of those Indy's.
Does anyone understand how the Iowa Caucus works? Can any registered voter just show up, like in a primary, or do the caucus-goers have to be selected beforehand?
America needs to fight wars to win or not fight them at all. Someone will rule the world, it just depends on who it will be. Europe? Asia? Islamists?
Reality is far from Uncle Ron on foreign policy. He nails domestic policy though, I will give him that.
I expect Rick Perry to start hitting Paul in the next 10 days on that very foreign policy. Merry Christmas.
You must be a Republican to vote but you can register up until the date I believe.
Same as he polled last election and walked away with his usual 10%.
Merry Christmas
Either as reported, they are mostly younguns who don't know better, or dyed-in-the-wool Libertarians who are blinded by their ideology.
SOMETHING SMELLS IN DES MOINES!
1st of all, most young people are not tending towards the Republican party, even for a "Pretend" RINO, like Paul.
Even if true, there are that many young people who vote.
Likewise, only about 2% call themselves Libertarians.
Last but not least, I can NOT imagine any "Real" Conservative, voting for this Truther, Anti-Israel, Islamic-Jihadist-supporting, Moonbat.
SO, WHAT GIVES????
Looks like America gives.
Same as he polled last election and walked away with his usual 10%.That's what I'm suspecting.
Why do we even HAVE Iowa? The state is like a Democrat precinct where vote fraud is sop.
Another point was that 51% of Paul voters said they would definitely vote for him.
This is fluid still. I think over the next 2 days we will see people picking and sticking with their guy or gal.
Ron Paul is the ONLY!!!!!! candidate who will actually LOWER federal spending.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will adhere to a strict interpretation of the U.S. Constitution.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will actually get rid of, totally eliminate, entire departments like the EPA, the Department of Education, etc.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will appoint Justices to the US Supreme Court that have the same perspective on the US Constitution as Thomas Jefferson.
The main criticism of Ron Paul is that Ron Paul’s foreign policy is the same foreign policy as that of our Founding Fathers Washington, Jefferson, Addams, Madison, etc. So be it.
I’m in Iowa and am beseiged by Paulista pop-ups and phone calls. The spot with the young lib (or libertarian) stoner wanting people to crossover and vote for Ron Paul in the caucuses tells me all I need to know about who is backing this guy.
We never see any analysis as the WHY Ron Paul is making headway. Hint: it isn’t his quasi-isolationist foreign policy. If anything, his foreign policy stances LOSE votes (like mine, for instance). He’s actually talking about reducing the government back to it’s Constitutionally designed role/size, for real. No other candidate is doing that.
Please keep pushing Robotney further back in the pack! Although it won’t matter. McCain came in 4th in ‘08 and Fred Barnes said it was great for McCain!
Merry Christmas
As long as Mitt keeps dropping, I don’t really care who’s on top at this stage of the game.
“Last but not least, I can NOT imagine any “Real” Conservative, voting for this Truther, Anti-Israel, Islamic-Jihadist-supporting, Moonbat.
SO, WHAT GIVES???? “
...........because Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who would actually sign legislation to repeal the Gun Control Acts of 1934 and 1968, and Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who would actually sign a repeal of the income tax. Isn’t that enough?
Paul is a deeply flawed candidate with racist baggage who hasn’t the SLIGHTEST clue on foreign policy at a time when foreing policy is just as CRITICAL as domestic economy.
I had 8 calls come to my landline last night in an hour. I haven't answered a poll call in a month.
Guess what; I would guess the Paultards are answering every poll call that comes.
They are fanatical and don't mind spending the time on a phone call.
“We never see any analysis as the WHY Ron Paul is making headway. “
If you vote for ANT OTHER other candidate besides Ron Paul, then it is 100% certain that 4 years from now in 2015, the US federal debt will be larger, we will still be fighting foreign wars, the US dollar will be worth less, and the federal government/TSA/Homeland Security will be more intrusive.
You can bet the farm on this.
Newt has a bus tour after Christmas but Perry has been going for a week and spending time. He wont be finished until the 2nd.
Look for Perry to be leading or a close second by the end of the week.
Yeah, keep on keepin’ on, Iowa. Hope you’re enjoying your moment in the glow of national attention. It all stops after 3 Jan, then you return to your rightful place in irrelevant obscurity.
You make it sound like Paul’s isolationist “foreign policy” will keep us out of conflict. That worked marvelously well in WWII, didn’t it?
“Paul is nutso.”
If someday you ever read the farewell addresses of George Washington and of Dwight Eisenhower, then you say the exact same thing of Washington and Ike.
So goes Iowa,so doesn’t go the nation!
I suspect his foreign policy views will be vindicated when America exhausts herself in foreign adventures. Besides, we are rapidly losing the very freedoms we pretend to fight for.
So your a 9-11 truther who blames America for 9-11?
You support Code Pink ?
Millions in earmarks like Ronny?
Iran getting the bomb like Ronny ?
Hate Jews and Israel like Ronny ?
Sonwhy are you here on this website peddling
This crazy America hater ?
Ron Paul supported the repeal of DADT.
Ron Paul attributes 9-11 to AMERICAN policy, not Islamofascist aggression.
Ron Paul says “Let’s just be friends and mind our own business” about Iranian nukes.
Ron Paul supports the communist-leaning OWS.
Ron Paul and Code Pink are aligned vis-a-vis Israel.
Ron Paul babbles on late-night talk shows about Michele Bachmann “hating muslims and wanting to go get them.”
Ron Paul published racist newsletters in the early ‘90s.
Ron Paul will never get my vote. The guy is losing his mental faculties by the day.
“I suspect his foreign policy views will be vindicated when America exhausts herself in foreign adventures”
Whether Ron Paul gets elected or not, it is only a matter of time, a very short time, when the US will not be able anyway to afford to fight foreign wars and to have troops in over 100 countries.
Ron Paul insists that America and the American people are to be blamed for the attack on the twin towers. He thinks those folks that were killed on those plans on 911, those that were burned alive, and those that jumped from more than 100 floors above the ground were all guilty and deserved to die those horrible deaths becasue they and their country had offended the Taliban and the Muslems in some way.
He says they, the Muslems, were justified in their actions and that we had NO RIGHT to respond because no war was declared. Does he NOT understand that innocent, unarmed Americans were attacked and murdered on American soil. If that isn’t an act of war that deserves a response what is?
This man is a coward
Ron Paul is a madman and s fraud !
A Jew hater and the earmark king of congress !
The madman does fundraisers with Code
Pink!
The evil man hates Isrsel and supports Iran ,
Who are you nutters trying to fool here !
Never again! Rather take the medicine quickly than insidiously. If its Mitt or Newt... well I’d just better stay home on election day. Otherwise I might be tempted to get it all over with quickly by voting O.
Your a wacko peddling lies .
Your a Israel hating / 9-11 truther.
Get help !
Really?
In my earlier (and in fact all my Posts re: Paul) I ask who are the MORONS who are supporting this nut case.
I won't go so far as to suggest a fellow Freeper is demented, BUT, you certainly don't know JACK about our History!!!
I could take up 20 or more par outlining how the FF you referred to were in NO way even remotely as Isolationists and RETARTED as Paul (in fact they were ALL "Patriots") is, NEVER mind that little "THINGY" about blaming US for 9/11?
I'll simply direct you to the founding of our United States Marines and just in case (which I doubt you do) you don't know where the origins of the Marine Corps Hymm comes from, here's a hint: "From the Halls of Montezuma...TO THE SHORES OF TRIPPOLI...."
Look that one up and you will see how PRESIDENT JEFFERSON dealt with the BARBARIC, ISLAMIC, RAG HEADS (SEE TRIPOLIAN/BARBARY WAR) who were attacking and pilaging our ships and capturing our sailors and either holding them for ransom or making them slaves.
Small wonder people like you support Paul; y'all don't know sheet from shinola!!!
Well, I guess we can be sure that IA people will again make the wrong choice. They have a lot of experience doing that.
I am writing myself in and yes I will never vote for that traitor paul for any reason
Remember the Democrats will be holding their caucus at the same time but we know theirs' won't be of much consequence.
They thought 9/11 was an inside job?
I believe I’m simply looking a the obvious truth that our way of life is in grave danger and the biggest threat is our own government. We need a constitutional candidate.
I’ll say it again... we need a candidate who supports the constitution. Without that everything is lost.
God can and will take care of Israel. We need to turn our focus inward. A sick man cannot take care of others.
Continuing with our current trajectory is the craziest option of all. That’s what I’m “Peddling” on this website.
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