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Your Move, Beijing: Big Year Ahead for Chinese Navy
AOL Defense ^ | December 23, 2011 | David Axe

Posted on 12/23/2011 8:03:46 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki

Your Move, Beijing: Big Year Ahead for Chinese Navy

At a meeting in Beijing in December, Chinese president Hu Jintao had a powerful message for officials from the People's Liberation Army Navy. "Prepare for war," Hu said, using a Mandarin term -- junshi douzheng -- that means "conflict in general."

Amplified and misrepresented by the foreign media, Hu's words echoed across Asia and the Pacific Ocean, alarming observers in Japan, India and other nations and eliciting a cool response from the U.S. Navy. "Nobody's looking for a scrap here," Adm. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told AFP. "Certainly we wouldn't begrudge any other nation the opportunity to develop naval forces."

"Hu was highlighting the importance of continued naval modernization," pointed out M. Taylor Fravel, a professor of security studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Chinese president's statement "does not refer to a desire to go war, much less preparations for specific combat operations," Fravel said.

But the tizzy over Mandarin semantics belies a more serious issue. In a little less than a decade -- about as long as it takes the U.S. to fund, build and commission a single aircraft carrier -- the PLAN has evolved from a coastal defense force to the early stages of a blue-water navy worthy of concern.

As part of its 11th five-year military plan beginning in 2006, China has: commissioned dozens of new frigates, destroyers, submarines and amphibious ships; begun sea trials of the country's first aircraft carrier, the former Soviet Varyag; deployed ships overseas for the first time in modern Chinese history; and developed a "carrier-killer" system that combines ocean-surveillance satellites, drones and maneuverable Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles.

The past few years have

(Excerpt) Read more at defense.aol.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Japan; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: china; plan; ronpaul
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1 posted on 12/23/2011 8:03:51 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Targets of opportunity.


2 posted on 12/23/2011 8:08:16 PM PST by DownInFlames
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Let the Chinese Navy tanks overrun North Korea!


3 posted on 12/23/2011 8:09:15 PM PST by Revolting cat! (Let us prey!)
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To: sukhoi-30mki
In WWII, the Japanese started strong. Up until Midway, they had one victory after another. However, the massive industrial base in the US could replace any ships or planes we lost, and we kept training pilots too. Eventually, we had some solid victories, and the Japanese could not replace either men or material, so they never recovered and eventually lost.

If -- big if -- we had a naval war with China, we might start strong, and have one victory after another. But we simply could not replace any material losses we might suffer. The massive industrial base in China could churn out ships and planes and replace whatever we destroyed. Eventually, they would score some solid victories, and we would simply not recover.

4 posted on 12/23/2011 8:10:32 PM PST by ClearCase_guy (Nothing will change until after the war. It's coming.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki
Chinese President Hu did not refer to any specific attack plan when he advised navy officials to "prepare for war." But preparation for warfare in general is the driving force behind the People's Liberation Army Navy.

This was a pretty limp ending to the article. All militaries prepare for war. And all political leaders try to raise troop morale by telling their militaries that they're not just parade ground soldiers and their role is a vital one. The difference with China is its pattern of armed clashes over territorial issues with half-a-dozen countries in the 60 year time frame after the Communist takeover.

5 posted on 12/23/2011 8:17:38 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

Well said.


6 posted on 12/23/2011 8:27:54 PM PST by DonaldC (A nation cannot stand in the absence of religious principle.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

>>Eventually, they would score some solid victories, and we would simply not recover.<<

.
I guess you’re expecting a protracted war.


7 posted on 12/23/2011 8:28:48 PM PST by 353FMG
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To: ClearCase_guy

“But we simply could not replace any material losses we might suffer.”

But, couldn’t we get some Mexicans to slap together a few steel mills and start building some planes, tanks and ships???/s;)


8 posted on 12/23/2011 8:30:52 PM PST by Frank_2001
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To: ClearCase_guy

That massive industrial base will not be able to churn out oil to drive their war machine. That is their Achilles’ heel.


9 posted on 12/23/2011 8:32:56 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
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To: 353FMG
I see 3 options:

1) Protracted war -- we fight these a lot, but we fight to lose. There is no way we could win a protracted war against China. Economically, politically, militarily, we haven't a hope.
2) Atomic war -- we could win this way, but we don't fight this way. Just ain't gonna happen.
3) Undignified appeasement and surrender -- China can do anything it wants with its military: we won't even pretend to try and stop them. And they know it.

3 options. And 2 of them are jokes. Only option 3 is really on the table.

10 posted on 12/23/2011 8:33:17 PM PST by ClearCase_guy (Nothing will change until after the war. It's coming.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

looking for a scrap? nah. we’re just devaluing our dollar... the same dollars we owe them

imagine if you lent someone $1000 and they paid you back a total of $250. how pissed would you be?

that’s what we’re doing to the chinese


11 posted on 12/23/2011 8:34:47 PM PST by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Yeah, I'm pretty sure that wouldn't be the case at all. Our boomers parked few miles out in the ocean would make quick work of their "industrial base."

The Chinese maybe could send out to sea one carrier group. Easy pickings for our subs.
12 posted on 12/23/2011 8:39:19 PM PST by randomhero97 ("First you want to kill me, now you want to kiss me. Blow!" - Ash)
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To: ClearCase_guy
The massive industrial base in China could churn out ships and planes and replace whatever we destroyed

Not if that industrial base was under pinpoint air attack. As you know, the US mainland was not bombed in WWII. The Chinese would not have this advantage.

13 posted on 12/23/2011 8:41:43 PM PST by Leaning Right (Why am I carrying this lantern? you ask. I am looking for the next Reagan.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Mark Steyn, writing for Maclean’s magazine, recently outlined some startling facts regarding the U.S. debt:

“By 2010, about half our debt was owned by foreigners, and somewhere over a quarter of that was held by the Chinese (officially).

“What does that mean? In 2010, the U.S. spent about $663 billion on its military, China about $78 billion. If the People’s Republic carries on buying American debt at the rate it has in recent times, then within a few years U.S. interest payment on that debt will be covering the entire cost of the Chinese armed forces.
In 2010, the Pentagon issued an alarming report to Congress on Beijing’s massive military buildup, upgrading bombers, and an aircraft carrier research and development program intended to challenge U.S. dominance in the Pacific. What the report didn’t mention is who’s paying for it.”

Steyn goes on to reveal the answer: “Mr. and Mrs. America.” It is a sound biblical principle that “the borrower is servant to the lender” (Proverbs 22:7). The U.S. should be very mindful that the deeper it goes into debt, the more its resources will be redirected to those nations who hold that debt.


14 posted on 12/23/2011 8:42:55 PM PST by tumblindice (Cowboy up)
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To: randomhero97
Our boomers parked few miles out in the ocean would could make quick work of their "industrial base."

They sure could.

But they wouldn't. We don't allow ourselves to fight wars in ways in which civilian casualties might be a possibility.

15 posted on 12/23/2011 8:44:46 PM PST by ClearCase_guy (Nothing will change until after the war. It's coming.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

It’s 1937 again, but the old Japan is the new China —sort of.

There will be some manufactured incident, but the real cause will be OIL.


16 posted on 12/23/2011 8:57:26 PM PST by gaijin
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To: ClearCase_guy

Reality is a bit more complicated. If you remain superior you prevent the instability we are discussing here. Unfortuately we may be too stupid in the long run to maintain superiority.

If you believe the war will remain conventional, it seems to me one US advantage is allies with decent armies and navies in a supporting role. Taiwan, S Korea, Japan, India, even Vietnam. Possibly England and European powers, as well.

If the war is nuclear or escalates there, all bets are off. Don’t forget the Chinese can inflict horrendous damage here. We can return the favor but the Chinese are counting on us not wanting the USA as a smouldering radioactive wreck and millions of casualties.

All this is why we should remain strong in the first place.


17 posted on 12/23/2011 8:59:12 PM PST by Williams (Honey Badger Don't Care)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Any area that produces military assets is a legal, legitimate target.

Now, if you are saying the politicians that run this hypothetical war wouldn't authorize this I would agree. However, if the news showed one of our carriers sunk the American people would be calling for blood. Well, a high percentage of them anyway.
18 posted on 12/23/2011 8:59:55 PM PST by randomhero97 ("First you want to kill me, now you want to kiss me. Blow!" - Ash)
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To: ClearCase_guy

Also, the Russians, Cubans, Venezuelans, Arabs, and North Koreans could attack us at the same time and wipe us out in a day.

China will only risk attack with full assurance from the Russians et al that they will also attack.

China is NOT stupid.

See the tagline ...


19 posted on 12/23/2011 9:00:47 PM PST by ROTB (Christian sin breeds enemies for the USA. If you're a Christian, stop sinning, and spread the Word..)
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To: ClearCase_guy

The US has two enemies, Islam and China. US needs income to pay down their debt. Here is the quandary. If we develop shale oil and gas, we can be net exporter to generate income and pay our debts/employ Americans. This undermines Iran and Saudi Arabia as oil prices drop. Problem is cheap oil benefits Chinese economy thus rise of Chinese regional military might in Far East. Go the other way, moderate oil and NG development, lower employment slower debt repayment, Chinese economy slowed by higher cost oil and inflation, but Iran and Saudi Arabia shaky regimes have money to placate unrest and fund terrorism. The US has a two front strategic headache plus third front - inability to deal with looming gov deficits. Whoever is POTUS in 2013 must deal with this financial and two front balancing act on potential threats.


20 posted on 12/23/2011 9:03:31 PM PST by Fee
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To: randomhero97

The Chinese maybe could send out to sea one carrier group. Easy pickings for our subs.

***

What’s to keep any subs from any country from launching a full spread against any of our carriers and taking it out?


21 posted on 12/23/2011 9:03:31 PM PST by ROTB (Christian sin breeds enemies for the USA. If you're a Christian, stop sinning, and spread the Word..)
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To: ROTB
Also, the Russians, Cubans, Venezuelans, Arabs, and North Koreans could attack us at the same time and wipe us out in a day.

Attack us with what? Most of those nations can barely feed their military. They barely have the logistics of their third-world neighbors let alone a superpower. The Cubans and Venezuelans would be obliterated in a day with just one carrier battle group.
22 posted on 12/23/2011 9:05:12 PM PST by randomhero97 ("First you want to kill me, now you want to kiss me. Blow!" - Ash)
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To: ROTB

Do you know what consists of a battle group?


23 posted on 12/23/2011 9:06:13 PM PST by randomhero97 ("First you want to kill me, now you want to kiss me. Blow!" - Ash)
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To: sten
imagine if you lent someone $1000 and they paid you back a total of $250. how pissed would you be?

It's the only game our politicians know.

How will it end? Can't go on forever.

24 posted on 12/23/2011 9:10:00 PM PST by The_Media_never_lie
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To: sukhoi-30mki
I've tracked and talked about their progress for the last 8-10 years, and have a site documenting it:


THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA

25 posted on 12/23/2011 9:10:08 PM PST by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: ClearCase_guy
Only option 3 is really on the table.

May I present option 4?

China continues to build and prepare for war. But no one ever challenges her, nor does she challenge anyone else. Yet, as the decades past, America eventually needs to go to war again, akin to actions in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc., but different countries in the future. China on the other hand, has a military on par with the US, in man power, equipment, etc. But it has been politically incorrect for China to engage, so, her military spends most of her days sailing around the world, making port calls, with their sailors sipping margaritas, or whatever drinks the Chinese sailors and soldier enjoy.

Americans slowly get fed up with this. China enjoys, commercial success from the stability America brings while American soldiers come home wounded. And American politicians and the American public begin to vehemently press the Chinese to engage in world affairs.

A green and reluctant Chinese military slowly begins to engage, and slowly begins the long process of sharing the role of the world's policeman with the US. And eventually, even exceed the role of the US.

Sounds far fetched given the atmosphere of fear of any possible Chinese engagement. But I'm absolutely positively convinced that will be the scenario of the future.

26 posted on 12/23/2011 9:23:19 PM PST by ponder life
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To: Revolting cat!

“Let the Chinese Navy tanks overrun North Korea!”

The Chinese Navy is part of the People’s Liberation Army. So, I guess they do have tanks. :)


27 posted on 12/23/2011 9:35:34 PM PST by dljordan ("Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered.")
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To: ClearCase_guy

That’s just one of a myriad of scenarios that sees us in serious decline. So far we’ve had no more luck getting this looked at and fixed, than the tax credit extension.

Our party is about as impotent as a political party could be.

We have a president on the ropes, and our guys are feverishly toweling him off and giving him water. So far it looks for all the world like our guys are going to hand him a second term.


28 posted on 12/23/2011 11:14:29 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Santorum..., are you giving it some thought? I knew you would.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Anybody seen that overhead shot of the Varyag? Holy cow that thing looks wide enough for a drywall factory and a couple baby milk factories.

Looks like it will make a grand target. Maybe they really designed it to recover the Buran at sea.


29 posted on 12/23/2011 11:20:53 PM PST by VeniVidiVici ("Si, se gimme!")
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To: Leaning Right; ClearCase_guy
The massive industrial base in China could churn out ships and planes and replace whatever we destroyed Not if that industrial base was under pinpoint air attack. As you know, the US mainland was not bombed in WWII. The Chinese would not have this advantage.

How exactly would Chinese industry be under pin-point air attack? Their integrated air defense system network is nothing like the useless KARI network that was faced in Iraq. The only system that has a chance of penetrating the Chinese IADS is the B-2 Spirit(it is stealthy PLUS has the range). Every other system wouldn't make it.

Problem is two fold - first of all there are not enough Spirits, and second of all stealthiness against an advanced IADS may also need active standoff jamming from other platforms that do not have the range to go in. Can strategic air strikes be done deep in Chinese territory? Yes they can. Can they be many of them? No. Already the British have shown (quite some years back) that they could track the B-2.

The Chinese IADS is geared against four types of foes - a limited strike (Taiwan moving against the 3 Gorges), a forceful strike (Indian assets moving in in a limited strike), a powerful strike from Russia, and a powerful strike from the US. Manned platforms over China, even stealthy planes, would be a tough sell.

An option would be massive cruise missile strikes. Which is one reason why the US converted some Ohios into massive Tomahawk missile carriers (similar to the Russian cruise missile submarines). However, there is a problem there as well. The Iraq war almost depleted Tomahawk reserves. Imagine a war against China?

Anyways, the US would win. But it would be a tough slog, wouldn't be anything like all the various conflicts the US has engaged in in the last 4 decades (the Bosnias, Iraqs, Afghanistans, Grenadas, Somalias, Panamas, and now Democratic Republic of Congo and Northern Uganda). It will require pro US government (not the folk currently in place), and will require and end to the transference of technologies to China. However, when it comes to air strikes against Chinese targets, as we speak that has been out of the question for the last half decade at least.

30 posted on 12/23/2011 11:21:12 PM PST by spetznaz (Nuclear-tipped Ballistic Missiles: The Ultimate Phallic Symbol)
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To: The_Media_never_lie

how will it end?

this is how wars start that aren’t based on starvation, religion, or ideology (which is just another form of religion)


31 posted on 12/23/2011 11:23:50 PM PST by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: 353FMG
" I guess you’re expecting a protracted war. "

In the event it goes nuclear, it won't be a protracted war.
32 posted on 12/23/2011 11:26:24 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: sukhoi-30mki
" That massive industrial base will not be able to churn out oil to drive their war machine. That is their Achilles’ heel."

And that was one of Nazi Germany's Achilles heel.
33 posted on 12/23/2011 11:27:42 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: ClearCase_guy

The Japanese had planes and equipment. They had ships and planes that could not get to the fight, what they didn’t have was oil.
Even with that they still kept fighting until the bombs dropped.


34 posted on 12/24/2011 3:42:43 AM PST by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: randomhero97

Also, the Russians, Cubans, Venezuelans, Arabs, and North Koreans could attack us at the same time and wipe us out in a day.

You forget the citizenry still have guns


35 posted on 12/24/2011 3:43:17 AM PST by ronnie raygun (V)
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To: American Constitutionalist

BINGO!!!!

.....but Russia does. One of the books that seems to always stick with me was Tom Clancy’s, The bear and the dragon.


36 posted on 12/24/2011 3:47:31 AM PST by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: ROTB

The Chicoms will probably attack the Russians before they attack us.

There is no power without oil.


37 posted on 12/24/2011 3:53:07 AM PST by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Eventually, they would score some solid victories, and we would simply not recover.

Should the ChiComs start a war where the USA is involved, China's economy will take a nose dive. And, if the USA is involved, so is every other freedom loving country, like it or not. In the short run and long run, China, IMO, has more to lose.

38 posted on 12/24/2011 7:45:30 AM PST by VRW Conspirator (Neo-communist equals Neo-fascist - VRW Conspirator)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Anyone curious about how many in this thread are chinocommie moles? Perhaps they’re taking anti china positions for now, perhaps they’re just practicing, perhaps they’re just lurking, but they are here, studying you.


39 posted on 12/24/2011 8:03:00 AM PST by Born to Conserve
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To: American Constitutionalist

And, most likely, that’s what it will be.


40 posted on 12/24/2011 8:32:44 AM PST by 353FMG
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To: ronnie raygun
That's the quote of the poster I responded to.

Oh, and I agree. However, neither of those nations would get close enough for us to need to use our guns. They can barely project power on their own Continent let alone across the oceans. Our ability to project power is unheard of in the history of civilization. Great Britain could do it but not with the precision we can.

I'm not a "homer" by any means but I do know a little bit about our capabilities.
41 posted on 12/24/2011 10:38:07 AM PST by randomhero97 ("First you want to kill me, now you want to kiss me. Blow!" - Ash)
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To: randomhero97

I looked it up after I asked you. Destroyers, Frigates, Subs, ...

I still don’t understand why torpedoes can’t be programmed to dodge or go under everything and head straight for a carrier. If so, can torpedoes be shot down the way patriot missiles can shoot down Scuds?


42 posted on 12/24/2011 7:25:23 PM PST by ROTB (Christian sin breeds enemies for the USA. If you're a Christian, stop sinning, and spread the Word..)
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To: Recon Dad

“Worse, China and Russia have formed a military alliance even bringing Pakistan into their military alliance; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. “

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2810247/posts

Russians are an oil exporter, and the Arabs have as much as us, and Venezuela has plenty.

Please read the following also.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2681926/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2677073/posts


43 posted on 12/24/2011 7:47:19 PM PST by ROTB (Christian sin breeds enemies for the USA. If you're a Christian, stop sinning, and spread the Word..)
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To: randomhero97

Please read the following. They are all against us, and they have plenty of help from the inside, especially if the Right or Left revolt against the government.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2810247/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2681926/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2677073/posts

A civil war would invite invasion. We’d be too distracted to defend.


44 posted on 12/24/2011 7:49:01 PM PST by ROTB (Christian sin breeds enemies for the USA. If you're a Christian, stop sinning, and spread the Word..)
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To: ROTB
“Worse, China and Russia have formed a military alliance even bringing Pakistan into their military alliance; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. “

.....Cooperation Pacts aren't worth the paper they're printed on when it comes to energy and raw materials. The Chinese have had their eyes on Siberia forever and Pakistan plays the part of Italy in this triumvirate.

45 posted on 12/25/2011 4:55:34 AM PST by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: ROTB
“Worse, China and Russia have formed a military alliance even bringing Pakistan into their military alliance; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. “

.....Cooperation Pacts aren't worth the paper they're printed on when it comes to energy and raw materials. The Chinese have had their eyes on Siberia forever and Pakistan plays the part of Italy in this triumvirate.

46 posted on 12/25/2011 4:55:36 AM PST by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: American Constitutionalist

However there’s one big distinction there.

Germany and Japan for all the Axis power propaganda were essentially lone rangers with no realistic allies. China has created an alliance of rogue states at vital locations, including with nuclear weapons.

Draw a line from Iran via Pakistan via Myanmar via North Korea. They seem conveniently close to China’s oil routes from the Gulf.


47 posted on 12/25/2011 9:43:42 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
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To: Recon Dad
" There is no power without oil. "

There is no electricity in China without USA's coal, or food without the USA's ability to produce food.
48 posted on 12/25/2011 11:09:49 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: gaijin
" There will be some manufactured incident, but the real cause will be OIL. "

Not only Oil, but, coal, clean water, raw materials, and the ability to transport it all safely over wide open or strategically dangerous open seas.
49 posted on 12/25/2011 11:12:33 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: Leaning Right
You won't even need to attack any Chinese strategic military assets ( as if they actually got any other than their nuclear force ) just cut off their ability to produce anything... in other words, cut off their ability to produce or transport oil, the ability to feed their coal operated power plants.
Oh, yeah ? cut off their food supply.
They got some major dams that our military could make havoc with.
Mainland China is about or almost the size of the continental USA ?
Who has the greater ability to be self sustaining ?
What is China's ability to produce food to feed their population ? they are about the same size as the continental USA buy with a much greater population who will be hungry when their food supply with be cut off, they will be busy fighting us and their domestic population.
50 posted on 12/25/2011 11:19:36 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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