Skip to comments.Redistricting leaves Rothman in GOP-leaning district; new map a loss for Democrats
Posted on 12/24/2011 3:58:12 AM PST by SMGFan
TRENTON U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman is the odd man out. A panel approved the reconfiguration of New Jerseys congressional districts Friday reducing the number from 13 to 12 and Rothman, a Democrat representing the 9th District, was left staring at his potential demise. After a week of wrangling between six-member teams of Republicans and Democrats culminated with a tie-breaking vote, Rothman, a 15-year congressional veteran from Bergen County, was drawn into a district that favors a Republican incumbent. Rothmans hometown of Fair Lawn ended up in the 5th District, represented by Scott Garrett, after Republicans persuaded John Farmer Jr., dean of the Rutgers-Newark law school who was chosen to cast the deciding vote, to side with their proposal. But its no "fair fight," as some billed a potential matchup between Rothman and Garrett. The district largely resembles Garretts previous one made up primarily of Warren, Sussex and northern Bergen counties and gives the Republican a partisan advantage. Much of Rothmans district was merged with that of U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-8th Dist.) of Paterson. The question after the final vote at the Statehouse was whether Rothman would run against Garrett in a district weighted against him or move to challenge another Democrat in a primary. Friday, he wasnt saying.
(Excerpt) Read more at nj.com ...
Old 13 versus new 12
Good. A Christmas present for NJ Republicans.
What does the map due for rat Rush Holt in the 12th district?
Hmmm: It’s usually the other way around.
I live in Maryland and it’s always the other way around.
My heart bleeds for Mr. Rothman, now he might have to find real work.
Rothman might move too another district, which means that he doesn’t know any other work outside of government.
Will he challenge Pascrell in June?
I dislike how Jersey City & Newark will now be divided now for 30 years. But it looks like Bayonne as well, but why? Street maps will be out next week.
Glad to see that this sc$@bag may be leaving office. During a attempt by the union to get into my business a few years back, Rothman showed up to support the thugs while they marched around with their rat mascot. Instead of supporting an employer in the community, this guy Ratman supported the union crime syndicate.
pdf map, best available so far
Bayonne & Jersey City look worse than past 20 years IMHO.
I live in Garrett’s district. The new district will not be a shoo-in for him, as was the old one. That said, as the majority of the voters he picked up in eastern Bergen county will not vote for him regardless of his message I hope he doesn’t try to pander to them.
ALWAYS good to hear BUMP!
The rats will just find a rat judge to tie this up in the courts.
Actually better map,
Excellent news! Garrett is my rep in northern Bergen county. He is a true conservative, IMHO the only one of NJ GOP congressmen; most of the others a RINOs to the core (or corpse).
He is very popular and has always won easily but if there is a real fight with Rothman I’ll look forward to volunteering for his campaign. The addition of Fair Lawn to the district shouldn’t be a huge help to Rothman even though he lives there. Fair Lawn has a large proportion of Russian Jews; they were no fans of Dims to begin with, and much less so now after O’s sabotage of Israel.
I’m not happy that they soiled our district with eastern NJ pukeville voters.
EXCELLENT! My Republican township moves back into a Republican congressional district! For the first time in 20 years I’ll have representation in congress!
Good point. Two words for Rothman, Bob Turner.Rothman is more a Tenafly, east hill of Englewood type of guy. The one point left out by the media is the move of Hackensack and Teaneck to the 5th. This protects Pascrell. If they were left in the old district, both Rothman and Pascrell would be gone. Those towns with Paterson and Passaic would not be good for the old corrupt white hack. This is Rothman’s worst nightmare. I wonder if he is going to learn to deer and bear hunt now.
To add, looking at the map, expect Rothman to move back to Englewood in the near future, and run against Pascrell. In the fifth, his only support will come from Hackensack - Teaneck, huge Obama areas and the NVRHS at Demarest towns(the NV-Old Tappan towns are the complete opposite), plus a small advantage in Fair Lawn. Outside of those areas, he is toast. New towns like Maywood and Bogota will go GOP. Remember Steve Lonegan was the mayor of Bogota. Other areas with any minority populations will not help him in that they are mainly either not citizens or illegals.
Steve Rothman was one of the more annoying members of the Judiciary during the impeachment. I’ll be glad to see him go.
*boohoo* daily kos says election discussion
“But unless Rothman can win the “fair fight,” it looks like we might come out of 2012 with a 6-6 delegation in a decidedly blue state. New Jersey is a prime example of how hard it can be to create a Dem-friendly map, without resorting to bacon-mander techniques, in a state where the Dem votes are so heavily concentrated in the cities and the suburbs have a mostly light-red hue.”
I’m shocked that the tie-breaking “Independent” chose the Republican compromise map; NJ Dems got the tie-breaker to pick their plan in 1991 and 2001.
Rothman has virtually no chance to beat Garrett in the NJ-05; if he wants to stay in Congress, his only shot is to run against Pascrell in the redrawn NJ-09, where he likely represents about half the voters. Pascrell is very fortunate that they didn’t append the cities of Passaic or Paterson to the Hispanic-majority NJ-13 (now renumbered the NJ-08) and/or the black majority NJ-10, or else he’d have no chance in the NJ-09 and have to run against Frelinghuysen in the Republican NJ-11.
South Jersey should see no change in the delegation, with the Democrat CD based in Camden growing outward but remaining Democrat and the three GOP districts not seeing big changes either.
I need to see electoral data, but my hunch is that both Holt’s NJ-12 and Pallone’s NJ-06 became a little less Democrat, and thus more competitive for a strong GOP challenger, while Lance’s NJ-07 was given some GOP precincts formerly in Garret’s abd Frelinghuysen’s CDs and should be more comfortably Republican.
Those are my preliminary thoughts, without having seen anything other than a not very detailed map. But I’d be surprised if
this map didn’t result in a 6-6 delegation (Dems have a 7-6 edge, and had an 8-5 advantage a year ago), and we might even see the first GOP majority in the NJ House delegation since January 1999 if my hunch about the NJ-12 and/or NJ-06 becoming more marginal is correct.
I just saw some (very rough) election numbers, and my hunches were correct except regarding (unfortunately) Holt’s NJ-12. Lance’s NJ-07 is now comfortably Republican , the three South Jersey GOP CDs stay about the same, and Pallone’s NJ-06 is more Republican (it was now carried easily by Christie in 2009 and the Bush 2004 percentage increased to about 45%). But Holt’s NJ-12 is more Democrat than before, and Holt should be safe there for the next decade.
As for Rothman, he represents around 52% of the new NJ-09 to 44% for Pascrell, so I expect Rothman to face Pascrell in a battle royale for the Dem nomination (which will be tantamount to election). Rothman represents only 20% of Garrett’s new NJ-05, and while the CD is not quite as Republican as before, there’s no way that Rothman could win there.
One article said the GOP drew the map especially to appeal to this tie breaker guy, law school dean John Farmer Jr. If so, I’m impressed.
So it sounds like the bottom line is
A)Our people should be good
B)Holt is safe, unfortunately
C)Pallone is the new Holt, probably just out of reach of our grasp but you never know.
The rats of course want Rothman to run against Garrett but I doubt he would especially since he currently has more voters in the 9th than Pascrell. I’m sure there are way more Italians than Jews though so Pascrell has the name game advantage. Is one of them worse or a more likely statewide candidate?
SCOTUS already set a date to hear the Texas appeal, and I think that, based on the 2006 precedent, they’ll overturn the district judge and let the legislative maps stand.
I hope so. The impact of that district judge could be enormous. Large enough to wipe out every gain made in every other state’s redistricting.
Rothman could be a potential statewide candidate for the Dems (perhaps to replace Lautenburg), but Pascrell is too old (he’ll be 76 in Jan 2013). Although Rothman is no spring chicken, either (60 next year).