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Redistricting leaves Rothman in GOP-leaning district; new map a loss for Democrats
NJ.com ^ | December 24, 2011 | By Matt Friedman/Statehouse Bureau

Posted on 12/24/2011 3:58:12 AM PST by SMGFan

TRENTON — U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman is the odd man out. A panel approved the reconfiguration of New Jersey’s congressional districts Friday — reducing the number from 13 to 12 — and Rothman, a Democrat representing the 9th District, was left staring at his potential demise. After a week of wrangling between six-member teams of Republicans and Democrats culminated with a tie-breaking vote, Rothman, a 15-year congressional veteran from Bergen County, was drawn into a district that favors a Republican incumbent. Rothman’s hometown of Fair Lawn ended up in the 5th District, represented by Scott Garrett, after Republicans persuaded John Farmer Jr., dean of the Rutgers-Newark law school who was chosen to cast the deciding vote, to side with their proposal. But it’s no "fair fight," as some billed a potential matchup between Rothman and Garrett. The district largely resembles Garrett’s previous one — made up primarily of Warren, Sussex and northern Bergen counties — and gives the Republican a partisan advantage. Much of Rothman’s district was merged with that of U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-8th Dist.) of Paterson. The question after the final vote at the Statehouse was whether Rothman would run against Garrett in a district weighted against him or move to challenge another Democrat in a primary. Friday, he wasn’t saying.

(Excerpt) Read more at nj.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: New Jersey
KEYWORDS: remap; rothman
Good to see this liberal leave, I hope.
1 posted on 12/24/2011 3:58:20 AM PST by SMGFan
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To: SMGFan

Old 13 versus new 12

http://media.nj.com/ledgerupdates_impact/photo/redistricting-mapjpg-dd889222d856e4e7.jpg


2 posted on 12/24/2011 4:00:09 AM PST by SMGFan
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To: SMGFan; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued

Good. A Christmas present for NJ Republicans.

What does the map due for rat Rush Holt in the 12th district?


3 posted on 12/24/2011 4:06:38 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: SMGFan

Hmmm: It’s usually the other way around.

I live in Maryland and it’s always the other way around.

My heart bleeds for Mr. Rothman, now he might have to find real work.


4 posted on 12/24/2011 4:06:47 AM PST by Venturer
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To: SMGFan

Rothman might move too another district, which means that he doesn’t know any other work outside of government.


5 posted on 12/24/2011 4:40:51 AM PST by ExCTCitizen (If we stay home in November '12... Don't complain if 0 shreds the constitution!!!)
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To: ExCTCitizen

Will he challenge Pascrell in June?

I dislike how Jersey City & Newark will now be divided now for 30 years. But it looks like Bayonne as well, but why? Street maps will be out next week.


6 posted on 12/24/2011 5:00:52 AM PST by SMGFan
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To: SMGFan
Let him run against Pascrell - he's as crooked as the day is long.


7 posted on 12/24/2011 5:30:54 AM PST by capydick (''Life's tough.......it's even tougher if you're stupid.'')
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To: SMGFan

Glad to see that this sc$@bag may be leaving office. During a attempt by the union to get into my business a few years back, Rothman showed up to support the thugs while they marched around with their rat mascot. Instead of supporting an employer in the community, this guy Ratman supported the union crime syndicate.


8 posted on 12/24/2011 5:47:51 AM PST by hdbc (1/20/13 End of an Error.)
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To: SMGFan

pdf map, best available so far

http://dng.northjersey.com/media_server/tr/2011/12/23map/districtmap.pdf


9 posted on 12/24/2011 5:53:19 AM PST by SMGFan
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To: Impy

Bayonne & Jersey City look worse than past 20 years IMHO.

http://www.njelections.org/publications_doe.html


10 posted on 12/24/2011 5:55:23 AM PST by SMGFan
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To: SMGFan

I live in Garrett’s district. The new district will not be a shoo-in for him, as was the old one. That said, as the majority of the voters he picked up in eastern Bergen county will not vote for him regardless of his message I hope he doesn’t try to pander to them.


11 posted on 12/24/2011 6:01:01 AM PST by ContraryMary (Obama = Carter redux)
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To: SMGFan
Rothman, a Democrat representing the 9th District, was left staring at his potential demise.

ALWAYS good to hear BUMP!

12 posted on 12/24/2011 6:03:43 AM PST by PGalt
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To: SMGFan

The rats will just find a rat judge to tie this up in the courts.


13 posted on 12/24/2011 6:11:12 AM PST by facedown (Armed in the Heartland)
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To: SMGFan

Actually better map,
http://www.njelections.org/2012-congressional/2012-nj-congressional-map.pdf


14 posted on 12/24/2011 6:13:15 AM PST by SMGFan
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To: ExCTCitizen

Excellent news! Garrett is my rep in northern Bergen county. He is a true conservative, IMHO the only one of NJ GOP congressmen; most of the others a RINOs to the core (or corpse).
He is very popular and has always won easily but if there is a real fight with Rothman I’ll look forward to volunteering for his campaign. The addition of Fair Lawn to the district shouldn’t be a huge help to Rothman even though he lives there. Fair Lawn has a large proportion of Russian Jews; they were no fans of Dims to begin with, and much less so now after O’s sabotage of Israel.
Go Garrett!


15 posted on 12/24/2011 6:13:51 AM PST by Moisey88 (Deja vu all over again: Back in USSR)
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To: SMGFan
Getting rid of Pascrell would have been better but this is great news. It reminds us of how unnecessary all of this is because of the system put in place by rino scumbag Whitman.
16 posted on 12/24/2011 6:30:28 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: ContraryMary

I’m not happy that they soiled our district with eastern NJ pukeville voters.


17 posted on 12/24/2011 6:45:28 AM PST by Huck (No.)
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To: SMGFan

EXCELLENT! My Republican township moves back into a Republican congressional district! For the first time in 20 years I’ll have representation in congress!


18 posted on 12/24/2011 7:58:18 AM PST by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Moisey88

Good point. Two words for Rothman, Bob Turner.Rothman is more a Tenafly, east hill of Englewood type of guy. The one point left out by the media is the move of Hackensack and Teaneck to the 5th. This protects Pascrell. If they were left in the old district, both Rothman and Pascrell would be gone. Those towns with Paterson and Passaic would not be good for the old corrupt white hack. This is Rothman’s worst nightmare. I wonder if he is going to learn to deer and bear hunt now.


19 posted on 12/24/2011 8:47:06 AM PST by gusty
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To: gusty

To add, looking at the map, expect Rothman to move back to Englewood in the near future, and run against Pascrell. In the fifth, his only support will come from Hackensack - Teaneck, huge Obama areas and the NVRHS at Demarest towns(the NV-Old Tappan towns are the complete opposite), plus a small advantage in Fair Lawn. Outside of those areas, he is toast. New towns like Maywood and Bogota will go GOP. Remember Steve Lonegan was the mayor of Bogota. Other areas with any minority populations will not help him in that they are mainly either not citizens or illegals.


20 posted on 12/24/2011 9:01:20 AM PST by gusty
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To: Impy; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; randita; InterceptPoint; GOPsterinMA

Steve Rothman was one of the more annoying members of the Judiciary during the impeachment. I’ll be glad to see him go.


21 posted on 12/24/2011 9:04:05 AM PST by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens collect welfare checks that Americans won't collect)
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To: gusty

*boohoo* daily kos says election discussion

“But unless Rothman can win the “fair fight,” it looks like we might come out of 2012 with a 6-6 delegation in a decidedly blue state. New Jersey is a prime example of how hard it can be to create a Dem-friendly map, without resorting to bacon-mander techniques, in a state where the Dem votes are so heavily concentrated in the cities and the suburbs have a mostly light-red hue.”

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/12/23/1048292/-New-Jersey-redistricting:-Commission-tiebreaker-opts-for-the-GOP-map?detail=hide


22 posted on 12/24/2011 9:14:01 AM PST by SMGFan
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To: Impy; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; SMGFan; Clemenza; GOPsterinMA; randita; InterceptPoint; ...

I’m shocked that the tie-breaking “Independent” chose the Republican compromise map; NJ Dems got the tie-breaker to pick their plan in 1991 and 2001.

Rothman has virtually no chance to beat Garrett in the NJ-05; if he wants to stay in Congress, his only shot is to run against Pascrell in the redrawn NJ-09, where he likely represents about half the voters. Pascrell is very fortunate that they didn’t append the cities of Passaic or Paterson to the Hispanic-majority NJ-13 (now renumbered the NJ-08) and/or the black majority NJ-10, or else he’d have no chance in the NJ-09 and have to run against Frelinghuysen in the Republican NJ-11.

South Jersey should see no change in the delegation, with the Democrat CD based in Camden growing outward but remaining Democrat and the three GOP districts not seeing big changes either.

I need to see electoral data, but my hunch is that both Holt’s NJ-12 and Pallone’s NJ-06 became a little less Democrat, and thus more competitive for a strong GOP challenger, while Lance’s NJ-07 was given some GOP precincts formerly in Garret’s abd Frelinghuysen’s CDs and should be more comfortably Republican.

Those are my preliminary thoughts, without having seen anything other than a not very detailed map. But I’d be surprised if
this map didn’t result in a 6-6 delegation (Dems have a 7-6 edge, and had an 8-5 advantage a year ago), and we might even see the first GOP majority in the NJ House delegation since January 1999 if my hunch about the NJ-12 and/or NJ-06 becoming more marginal is correct.


23 posted on 12/24/2011 12:25:30 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Impy; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; SMGFan; Clemenza; GOPsterinMA; randita; InterceptPoint; ...

I just saw some (very rough) election numbers, and my hunches were correct except regarding (unfortunately) Holt’s NJ-12. Lance’s NJ-07 is now comfortably Republican , the three South Jersey GOP CDs stay about the same, and Pallone’s NJ-06 is more Republican (it was now carried easily by Christie in 2009 and the Bush 2004 percentage increased to about 45%). But Holt’s NJ-12 is more Democrat than before, and Holt should be safe there for the next decade.

As for Rothman, he represents around 52% of the new NJ-09 to 44% for Pascrell, so I expect Rothman to face Pascrell in a battle royale for the Dem nomination (which will be tantamount to election). Rothman represents only 20% of Garrett’s new NJ-05, and while the CD is not quite as Republican as before, there’s no way that Rothman could win there.


24 posted on 12/24/2011 1:14:06 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; SMGFan; randita; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; gusty; GOPsterinMA

One article said the GOP drew the map especially to appeal to this tie breaker guy, law school dean John Farmer Jr. If so, I’m impressed.

So it sounds like the bottom line is

A)Our people should be good
B)Holt is safe, unfortunately
C)Pallone is the new Holt, probably just out of reach of our grasp but you never know.

The rats of course want Rothman to run against Garrett but I doubt he would especially since he currently has more voters in the 9th than Pascrell. I’m sure there are way more Italians than Jews though so Pascrell has the name game advantage. Is one of them worse or a more likely statewide candidate?


25 posted on 12/25/2011 9:20:50 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: SMGFan
Whatever loss this may be to the Dems, it's more than made up by their getting a liberal judge to redraw the boundaries in TX to switch six seats from R to D.
26 posted on 12/25/2011 9:29:40 AM PST by Cyber Liberty ("If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." --Winston Churchill)
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To: Cyber Liberty

SCOTUS already set a date to hear the Texas appeal, and I think that, based on the 2006 precedent, they’ll overturn the district judge and let the legislative maps stand.


27 posted on 12/25/2011 10:20:40 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

I hope so. The impact of that district judge could be enormous. Large enough to wipe out every gain made in every other state’s redistricting.


28 posted on 12/25/2011 10:43:35 AM PST by Cyber Liberty ("If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." --Winston Churchill)
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To: Impy

Rothman could be a potential statewide candidate for the Dems (perhaps to replace Lautenburg), but Pascrell is too old (he’ll be 76 in Jan 2013). Although Rothman is no spring chicken, either (60 next year).


29 posted on 12/25/2011 12:09:21 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (If Newt Gingrich is a Reliable Conservative, Joe Biden is a member of MENSA)
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