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No Surprise, Iowa Social Conservatives Are About To Shoot Us All in the Foot Again
Redstate ^ | 12/28/2011 | Erick Erickson

Posted on 12/28/2011 1:56:01 PM PST by TBBT

I’m hearing several campaigns and external pollsters have a surge for Rick Santorum. With the National Review folks fawning over him again, it probably means a surge is real and any surge by Rick Santorum is another factor ensuring Mitt Romney wins the nomination. (To be fair, this doesn’t look like real momentum)

Santorum has no money or organization outside of Iowa and cannot win the nomination, but Iowans love a guy who sucks up to them and makes sure they know he loves the babies.

As a pro-lifer myself, I have to throw up a bit in my mouth that Iowa conservatives are seriously considering Rick Santorum, which will only help Mitt Romney...

*snip*

Rick Santorum will not be the nominee. That’s the reality. But his rise hurts Bachmann, Gingrich, and Perry in Iowa — all of whom have better organizations and better shots beyond Iowa.

(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: iowa; polls; ricksantorum
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What have I been telling you....?
1 posted on 12/28/2011 1:56:10 PM PST by TBBT
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To: TBBT
Historically, winning Iowa is almost a sure sign that you are not going to win the nomination.
2 posted on 12/28/2011 1:58:03 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (FOREIGN AID: A transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries)
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To: TBBT

Erickson, BingO!


3 posted on 12/28/2011 2:01:58 PM PST by CainConservative (Merry CHRISTmas and a Happy Newt/Marco 2012!!)
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To: TBBT
any surge by Rick Santorum is another factor ensuring Mitt Romney wins the nomination

B S


4 posted on 12/28/2011 2:04:26 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: TBBT
What have I been telling you....?

That Erickson is a GOP-E stooge?

5 posted on 12/28/2011 2:05:47 PM PST by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I am truly sick of the Iowa caucuses and analysis of the Iowa caucuses. A vote for whoever in the IC means in all likelihood absolutely nothing.


6 posted on 12/28/2011 2:06:38 PM PST by Williams (Honey Badger Don't Care)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Especially when you split the conservative vote in SC!

Which is what Thompson did in ‘08 and what Santorum, Perry, and Bachmann are hoping to do with NEWT in ‘12.

Way to go, Repubs! Help the moderates: McCain, Romney, Dole, etc...A sure LOSS to the Dems every time.


7 posted on 12/28/2011 2:06:43 PM PST by CainConservative (Merry CHRISTmas and a Happy Newt/Marco 2012!!)
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To: TBBT

It just cements the impression of IA being a whacko caucus irrelevant to the final outcome of the primaries.


8 posted on 12/28/2011 2:08:03 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: TBBT

Let’s face it. Santorum is the best conservative out there. Iowans should vote for him. Anyone that votes for Romney is an idiot. He should be polling in the single digits.


9 posted on 12/28/2011 2:09:41 PM PST by Antoninus (Defeat Romney--Defeat Obama.)
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To: TBBT

first of all, a caucus is a silly way to pick a presidential nominee. it’s not far removed from a mob. and winning the iowa caucus has become the kiss of death to republican presidential nominees. even when iowa is right, it’s an accident.

don’t give iowa any more weight than you would a spring training baseball game.


10 posted on 12/28/2011 2:10:14 PM PST by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
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To: TBBT

I get so sick of this unrelenting insulting, I mean nasty insulting spit in the face treatment of republican candidates.


11 posted on 12/28/2011 2:12:25 PM PST by DManA
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To: TBBT

Iowa Republicans are attention whores.

I swear I think it is done on purpose so that they ensure millions of dollars flowing into the state economy every four years from every longshot running because they know they are going to toss the vote to whomever (which can be some guy at 2%), just to make themselves feel like they are keeping the race “interesting” when they are just f*cking up the whole process.


12 posted on 12/28/2011 2:14:49 PM PST by VanDeKoik (1 million in stimulus dollars paid for this tagline!)
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To: TBBT
As I have said before, I remember a time, not so long ago, when candidates didn't even waste their time in puny Iowa. It counts for naught. Yet according to today's press, it's as if the “Iowa Caucuses" are the general election.
13 posted on 12/28/2011 2:15:04 PM PST by faucetman ( Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
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To: TBBT

Well I want a Santorum surge. However, things are a mess. Why go into to it. I’ve ranted enough over the past few days and weeks. but basically, We don’t know where a Santorum or if any Bachmann surge would land them in the final results. So they may not beat Romney or Gingrich. So I don’t know who benefits from this other than throwing the Primary results into more chaos. So Ron Paul could very well win Iowa with yet another split on conservative votes.


14 posted on 12/28/2011 2:15:48 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: TBBT

This article makes no sense at all.

A Santorum surge does not help Romney. Only a Romney surge can help Romney, but I guess simple concepts are sometimes difficult to grasp.

If people would just vote their conscience instead of basing their votes on amateurish political calculations the process as a whole would work out a lot better.


15 posted on 12/28/2011 2:15:48 PM PST by BarnacleCenturion
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To: TBBT

Wait a minute wasn’t everyone saying just a few weeks ago that anyone of the nine people standing on the stage during the debates could beat Obama? Now we are all ducking and wailing about how none of them can except one person and no one can agree on who that person is.

I know one thing Obama and his party thugs are going to come out swinging and slandering anyone who runs. Nothing Obama can acuse our guy/gal of is anything Obama hasn’t already done himself. We are going to have to stop this attitiude of not wanting to lower ourselves to zero’s level and get in there and give em punch for punch. I do not think the GOP or conservatives have the guts for that kind of brawling. We cannot win the way we are fighting this war.


16 posted on 12/28/2011 2:15:48 PM PST by Americanexpat (Everytime I see that guy's face ot)
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To: Antoninus

“Let’s face it. Santorum is the best conservative out there. “

I dont care if he is.

We are not electing president of conservative island. There is still that pesky hurdle of running against Obama, and all of the neat conservative talking points on Earth isnt going to mean squat if he has the presence of wet cardboard.


17 posted on 12/28/2011 2:18:33 PM PST by VanDeKoik (1 million in stimulus dollars paid for this tagline!)
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To: BarnacleCenturion
A Santorum surge does not help Romney. Only a Romney surge can help Romney, but I guess simple concepts are sometimes difficult to grasp.

You are 100% correct, sir. And if you want to take votes away from Romney, then you have to out-Romney him by supporting amnesty for illegals, global warming initiatives, and big-government solutions to health care, kind of like what Newt Gingrich is doing.

18 posted on 12/28/2011 2:20:48 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: VanDeKoik
I swear I think it is done on purpose so that they ensure millions of dollars flowing into the state economy every four years from every longshot running because they know they are going to toss the vote to whomever (which can be some guy at 2%), just to make themselves feel like they are keeping the race “interesting” when they are just f*cking up the whole process.

Works the same way in New Hampshire...NINE PERCENT meals and lodging tax...the more national media; the better! Show me the money!

19 posted on 12/28/2011 2:20:59 PM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: TBBT

Bachmann PAC has bought 475,000 dollars worth of ads for Romney. Get the picture Bachmann ,Gingrich, etc are in the bag for Romney.Democrat or Republican we’re screwed.


20 posted on 12/28/2011 2:22:50 PM PST by littlesorrel
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To: TBBT

This is where Newt is being used to knock out Bachmann and Santorum.

Bachmann and Santorum are the most conservative of the pack, and the two least likely to simply acquiesce to whatever the establishment wants for 4 years.

So the establishment needs them out of the race before they gain too much momentum, Bachmann especially, since her only Congressional track record has been to vote more for the Christian side and small business side of issues. The establishment never succeeded in getting her to sell out during her time in Congress. Santorum is speaking unabashedly from a Christian perspective much the same way as Bachmann does. That scares politicians.

The tactics are simple:

A) Rant and rave that Bachmann and Santorum are helping the terrible “Romney” win. It’s an outright lie, but never mind, a lot of people will knee-jerk “not like” them because they’ve read that Romney is the “bad buy”. Which he is. So we have a half truth. Classic deception of the feeble minded. Call them “ankle-biters”. Say they have “crazy eyes”. Say they have “no charisma”. Aren’t all those what a good solid conservative platform is based on ?

B) Once Bachmann and Santorum are gone, the Grand Old Progressive establishment will get either Newt or Mitt, so they’re covered either way. They can wheel and deal with them, allowing cronyist big business and big government to grow like never before, all in the name of “helping the economy”. Since they will not create many small business jobs, the economy will never really get going, Republicans will be blamed and lose terribly in 2016. But who cares, big business will switch back to supporting Democrats.

C) Much to the chagrin of the “conservative” electorate, Newt may well simply bail out, so the rubes of the Republican base will play right into the hands of the “bad guy” and they will nominate Romney.


21 posted on 12/28/2011 2:24:33 PM PST by PieterCasparzen (We have to fix things ourselves.)
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To: TBBT

Iowa is becoming its normal self... THREE RING CIRCUS.


22 posted on 12/28/2011 2:25:15 PM PST by VideoDoctor
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Exactly. Iowa's relevance is vastly overrated. We could make a pretty good list of people who won in Iowa and didn't win the nomination.

Try making a comparable list for Florida.

I consider Romney, Perry and Gingrich to all be "C" list candidates and consider arguing about the comparative merits of these three to be akin to arguing about which flavor of socialized medicine, amnesty and crony capitalism is most efficient.

23 posted on 12/28/2011 2:26:40 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Hoodat

I agree....BS that a vote for a conservative is a vote for Romney

Any vote for a RINO is a vote for a RINO. Voting for Santorum is not a vote for Romney. Actually, if Santorum gets enough votes, the other conserv-leaning candidates may drop out....giving Santorum an advantage

There is too much “we need a candidate who can beat Obama” nonsense. That always leads the GOP to a liberal


24 posted on 12/28/2011 2:27:07 PM PST by RealImmigrant (National Security begins at the Border)
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To: Americanexpat

“Wait a minute wasn’t everyone saying just a few weeks ago that anyone of the nine people standing on the stage during the debates could beat Obama? “

Anyone of them can. Obama on his own is an idiot.

The problem is that you are running against Obama, the MSM, and all of the leftist special interest groups.

That changes the equation.


25 posted on 12/28/2011 2:27:07 PM PST by VanDeKoik (1 million in stimulus dollars paid for this tagline!)
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To: Antoninus
Let’s face it. Santorum is the best conservative out there. Iowans should vote for him. Anyone that votes for Romney is an idiot. He should be polling in the single digits.


There are those who think we have to vote for “there guy” or we lose. I won't vote for Romney, Paul or Newt. Romney has no foundation; he blows with the wind or polls, plus he gives me the creeps. I think Paul is like Romney, but better at hiding what he really believes. He's a crazy old man who is ok with watching this country be attacked because he is so anti-war. Newt can't find a love and stay true, but then again he is in love with himself. He's willing to hurt people to make himself happy. Everyone of these people have made mistakes, but I know Santorum is conservative. He wants to stop the spending & overturn obamacare. He knows how to keep his promises to his family. I'm sending in money to Santorum today.

26 posted on 12/28/2011 2:27:54 PM PST by Linda Frances
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To: Williams
Agreed.I have Iowa Caucus fatigue.This has only been a tool for our side to rip each other apart.The democrat socialists party and Obozo laugh at us while taking notes for the general election.
27 posted on 12/28/2011 2:28:16 PM PST by shanover (These are the times that try men's souls....tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered. Paine)
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To: VanDeKoik
I dont care if he is.

Nothing you wrote after that is of any interest to me. The article at the top of this thread was written by a moron. I am done commenting on it.
28 posted on 12/28/2011 2:30:21 PM PST by Antoninus (Defeat Romney--Defeat Obama.)
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To: PieterCasparzen

You nailed it. Sadly, many here on FR are perfectly willing to abandon the conservative candidates for reasons which I simply cannot grasp. At this point four years ago, Rudi Giuliani was leading the polls. Yet we got stuck with McCain. I hope we don’t see a repeat and get stuck with McNewt this time around.


29 posted on 12/28/2011 2:32:38 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: Utmost Certainty
Watched a reporterette on FoxNews last night, interviewing a bunch of Iowans. They stood around scratching their heads, they don't know who to vote for, after all this time.
30 posted on 12/28/2011 2:32:47 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: TBBT

CNN Poll: Romney on top, Gingrich fading & Santorum rising in Iowa


31 posted on 12/28/2011 2:32:57 PM PST by Linda Frances
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To: BarnacleCenturion
[but I guess simple concepts are sometimes difficult to grasp.]

Yes, they certainly are. Like they were in 2008 when Thompson, Hunter, Romney and Huckabee split the Conservative vote. We wound up with McCain.

Which is exactly what the author is saying. Instead of supporting a candidate who can beat Romney, they are splitting their support for Paul, Santorum, Bachmann and Perry. I'll leave Gingrich out of this just so you might listen.

Then the Moderates and establishment GOP gives the majority of the vote to Romney. If Romney wins Iowa, it will be over for the other states. And you will have undoubtedly participated in that event.

32 posted on 12/28/2011 2:33:41 PM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: TBBT

Well, I’m supporting Bachmann but I can see a scenario - i.e. money - where Perry wins, just because he ends up the last conservative standing. Nobody else has the cash to keep up with Mittens.


33 posted on 12/28/2011 2:33:52 PM PST by Da Bilge Troll (Defeatism is not a winning strategy!)
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To: Linda Frances
I won't vote for Romney, Paul or Newt.

That sums it up for me as well.

34 posted on 12/28/2011 2:38:17 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: TBBT

Tell Eric... whaaaaa


35 posted on 12/28/2011 2:41:03 PM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
If Romney wins Iowa, it will be over for the other states.

B S


36 posted on 12/28/2011 2:41:03 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: VanDeKoik

“There is still that pesky hurdle of running against Obama, and all of the neat conservative talking points on Earth isnt going to mean squat if he has the presence of wet cardboard.”

And that’s on an upbeat day.


37 posted on 12/28/2011 2:48:51 PM PST by Magic Fingers
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To: TBBT

Don’t forget about the new proportional allocation of delegates in all these early races. If Romney’s total is pulled down and Newt wins big in SC or FL, Newt’s overall delegate total could end up above Romney’s. It’s not about counting states yet, but counting delegates. If no one polls above the 20s, the Iowa race is going to be inconclusive by any standards. As long as Newt’s in the top 4, he’ll survive. Most likely Bachmann will be voted off the island if she’s not in the top 4 which will further help Newt going forward.


38 posted on 12/28/2011 2:49:55 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Obama in 2012!)
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To: Linda Frances

This isn’t a Lifetime network TV-movie. What someone does in their romantic or married life has no bearing on their ability to take the fight to leftists, lead the military, negotiate with Congress, etc. Besides, Newt’s divorces are ancient history now. If his own daughters still love him and support him for president, why the heck would this be a problem for a voter?


39 posted on 12/28/2011 2:56:01 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Obama in 2012!)
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To: PieterCasparzen

Your comments about Newt are utterly baseless. He has taken on the establishment in his career and they obviously still hate him for it. Newt’s tenure in the House created millions of jobs and he is proposing to do the same with the same kind of economic plan now.

Bachmann’s negatives are massive. She doesn’t have a chance in the general. Republicans and Democrats alike find her off-putting.

Santorum is good V.P. material, but not ready for prime-time on the top of the ticket.


40 posted on 12/28/2011 2:59:38 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Obama in 2012!)
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To: JediJones
Besides, Newt’s divorces are ancient history now.

His support for insurance mandates, amnesty, and global warming initiatives are recent history.

41 posted on 12/28/2011 3:07:19 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: Hoodat

It’s VERY obvious that you are a pathetic Rombot shill.


42 posted on 12/28/2011 4:04:07 PM PST by CainConservative (Merry CHRISTmas and a Happy Newt/Marco 2012!!)
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To: Da Bilge Troll
I can see a scenario - i.e. money - where Perry wins, just because he ends up the last conservative standing. Nobody else has the cash to keep up with Mittens.

I think you're right. Suppose Santorum gets 3rd or 4th? What good is it going to do him? He has no money to continue.

It makes more sense to vote for Perry.

43 posted on 12/28/2011 4:13:58 PM PST by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: CainConservative
It’s VERY obvious that you are a pathetic Rombot shill.

It’s VERY obvious that you are smoking crack.

44 posted on 12/28/2011 4:35:10 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: TBBT

Gingrich is like 2008’s Romney, Santorum is going to be 2012’s version of Mike Huckabee, the guy who can’t win but will manage to split the conservative vote so an electable conservative like 2008’s Fred Thompson can’t get traction, and leaving us with 2012’s version of John McCain — Mitt Romney. Like John McCain, Romney will come in 3rd or barely 4th, and it will be called a “good job” if Santorum and Paul are 1 and 2.

Then Romney wins NH (like McCain), Gingrich takes South Carolina but Romney takes other early states and Romney’s money brings him to victory on super tuesday, with Santorum and Gingrich fighting over the spoils, and the only conservative will real money to spend getting shut out because of Gardasil and a bad debate performance.


45 posted on 12/28/2011 5:59:58 PM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: hinckley buzzard

People I’m talking to don’t care for anyone and don’t know who to vote for. I may just draw a name out of a hat or something.


46 posted on 12/28/2011 6:27:57 PM PST by Free Vulcan (Election 2012 - No Prisoners. No Mercy.)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
It makes more sense to vote for Perry.

LOL! That's not exactly what I said. If Bachmann is still in the race by the time of the Missouri caucuses in March, she will get my vote. I will support Bachmann as long as she is in it, including cash and volunteer efforts.

47 posted on 12/29/2011 11:39:18 AM PST by Da Bilge Troll (Defeatism is not a winning strategy!)
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To: Da Bilge Troll

Have you seen what all is happening to the Bachmann campaign today? She is in big trouble and it may not be all her fault.


48 posted on 12/29/2011 11:42:32 AM PST by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Free Vulcan
People I’m talking to don’t care for anyone

Same thing I hear in the coffee shops here in my part of NW Iowa.

49 posted on 12/29/2011 11:49:02 AM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

It’s a disgraceful spectacle all the way around.


50 posted on 12/29/2011 11:50:31 AM PST by EternalVigilance
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