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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: All

KCCI just said
Santorum 25%
Romney 25%
Paul 23%


1,001 posted on 01/03/2012 8:03:34 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: Degaston

Real close there Dega


1,002 posted on 01/03/2012 8:03:42 PM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: BenKenobi
Scott Pelley(sp) will be disappointed.
1,003 posted on 01/03/2012 8:03:42 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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To: Aroostook25

[Having a child at age 48 with the very high risk of Trisomy 18 is beyond foolish and stupid. More like hubris and arrogance.]

Except Palin was 43 when she got pregnant (maybe 44). So you are a careless liar by 4 to 5 years. And I guess you would have preferred an abortion.


1,004 posted on 01/03/2012 8:03:54 PM PST by FastCoyote (I am intolerant of the intolerable.)
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To: fatima

They did and Newt said he would lose.

And lose he did... BIG TIME.

From 1st to 4th in 3 weeks.


1,005 posted on 01/03/2012 8:04:18 PM PST by tennmountainman
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To: RitaOK

“OBAMA would love to blow Santorum’s nose for him”No your just reliably.


1,006 posted on 01/03/2012 8:04:23 PM PST by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: Cato in PA

From your post to God’s ears!


1,007 posted on 01/03/2012 8:04:28 PM PST by DCBryan1 ("Forget the Lawyers! FIRST YOU MUST kill the journalists!" - Die Ritter, die sagen, "nee"!)
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To: TitansAFC

I like your name for him....LOL.

GO NEWT!


1,008 posted on 01/03/2012 8:04:33 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: teg_76
so you hear Wolf Blitzer."

Ha, ha, ha... 2x

1,009 posted on 01/03/2012 8:04:41 PM PST by World'sGoneInsane (We Can Take OUR Country Back--Perry 2012)
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To: teg_76

Huntsman should drop out too. It’s hilarious how he’s so invisible that nobody here even bothered to call for him to drop out.


1,010 posted on 01/03/2012 8:04:58 PM PST by Cato in PA (Hope and pray for the Santorum surge!)
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To: Gator113

FOX has become a haven for all sorts of misfits, lechers, adulterers, and kooks.

But Mark Sanford! That is really too much...trying to give legitimacy to the dregs of American politicians.

This after Alan Colmes’s slanderous lies yesterday.


1,011 posted on 01/03/2012 8:05:02 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: CainConservative

I was disappointed that Palin did not endorse Santorum tonight on Greta.


1,012 posted on 01/03/2012 8:05:15 PM PST by Wisconsinlady (DEFUND NPR, PBS, THE TSA AND THE U.N.)
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To: Theodore R.
I think Santorum may pull this off, and if Bachmann drops out after this loss, her support will most likely go to Rick.

This would be a good thing.

1,013 posted on 01/03/2012 8:05:53 PM PST by ohioWfan (Proud Mom of a Bronze Star winner!)
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To: teg_76

Bachmann will never do it.

She is the next Margaret Thatcher, doncha know?


1,014 posted on 01/03/2012 8:06:26 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: mojo114

Faux is awful. I am going to local news at the top of the hour.


1,015 posted on 01/03/2012 8:06:42 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: Palladin

The Newtie is now Second Tier.

*************
And just 7 weeks ago, he didn’ve even have 5 % in the national polls. Now, he’s tied at 25%

Imagine where he will be 7 weeks from now?

-:)


1,016 posted on 01/03/2012 8:06:53 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: CedarDave

Santorum 25%, Mittens 24%, Wrong Paul 22%, Newt 14%, Perry 11%, Michele 6%


If Wrong finishes third tonight it will be the closest he ever comes to getting the nomination. There’s really nothing else for him to get. He’s devoted his life to Iowa. Meaning, stick a fork in him. He be dun.


1,017 posted on 01/03/2012 8:07:03 PM PST by PaleoBob
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To: grey_whiskers

No question he was a problem...BUT, if Perot doesn’t run (he got 22% of the vote, I believe) Clinton goes back to Arkansas and Hillary does volunteer work for Planned Parenthood throughout the ‘90s.


1,018 posted on 01/03/2012 8:07:38 PM PST by Pharmboy (She turned me into a Newt! 2012)
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To: CainConservative
Check out this map. It’s a Huckaboom again! Rick dominating the map of Iowa’s counties.

Yeah, sort of looks like map of the US with the majority of the heartland Republican and east and west Democrats.

1,019 posted on 01/03/2012 8:07:44 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: CedarDave

Dave,

Check out this map AGAIN. It’s a Huckaboom again! Rick with WINS in 55 and counting counties across the state.. dominating the map of Iowa’s counties.

Wow!!!

http://iowacaucus.com/results/


1,020 posted on 01/03/2012 8:07:58 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain,Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: Windflier; Aroostook25; 50mm; darkwing104; Old Sarge; TheOldLady; Jim Robinson

Please read post #846, sniff or something.


1,021 posted on 01/03/2012 8:07:58 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Wisconsinlady

I was disappointed that Palin did not endorse Santorum tonight on Greta.


I was thinking the same thing.

I wonder if she eventually will endorse him.


1,022 posted on 01/03/2012 8:07:58 PM PST by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: teg_76

Perry will do well in South Carolina


1,023 posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:19 PM PST by make no mistake
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To: Kenny

” I don’t see the rush to eliminate candidates.” <<<

It’s the money. Perry goes straight to South Carolina and so does Newt if he is smart. They have their own internal numbers for Romney in New Hampshire. The winner in South Carolina is always the game changer and the final dog fight for going into Florida. These guys do not have the money. One man has the money for the distance and opposition research, negative ads. Romney. And his Super PAC.


1,024 posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:23 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: Free Vulcan
First of all, congratulations to Rick Santorum on his amazing surge and showing at the Iowa Caucases.

Now, some of the obvious points from watching the Iowa Caucuses on Fox are:

(1) Bret Baier doesn’t know how to add or subtract.

(2) A preponderance of Santorum supporters have Pro-Life/Abortion as their primary concern in terms of focus as revealed in their Google searches, which doesn’t bode well if he is running against Obama since the primary concern of America in 2012 is Jobs and the Economy.

While Rick Santorum may address the economy, his vocal supporters may tend to ignore the main issue and spend their time running around screaming about abortion, holding up signs about killing babies instead of holding up signs about Obama killing jobs and that would pretty much sink America inot the pit of four more years of Obama mush meals.

(3) Santorum has definitely emerged as the man of the moment, the Knight on the Black Horse appearing from the hillock and now raising his sword to descend into the battle as the “Anti-Romney” vote (and in part the Evangelist Ram’s horn calling out to counter to the evil of Mormonism) ---- that is up until he is labeled by the some of the same evangelicals as a Papist whose true loyalty is to the Pope, which will soon give rise to a new movement called the Fifth Monarchy Men who will throw their support towards an independent run byRon Paul which will result in the re-election of Obomination.

(4) Carl Rove is a pathetic Establishment Republican who is going to wet his whistle for Romney no matter what happens or who is rounding second base.

(5) There is a saying, “The Life of the King is inside the Parrot”. The parrot has been sitting right there and has observed and put to memory everything. And then the parrot will squawk, and tell all the World about it, and it will be too true to ignore even if it is the parrot who speaks and not a magic mirror. At that moment, it won’t matter how many gems are in the crown of the King – all eyes and ears will be on the parrot. And the parrot is Sarah Palin. Whoever she endorses, that will be the squawk that turned the worm.

(6) Bachmann needs a shoulder to cry on. It’s … well … sort of like … like you don’t want to say anything. Like when someone falls off the stage. Or …

(7) Perry is now a pie, and not a candidate. Perry pie. Fried chicken and perry pie.

(8) On to N.H…. and Gingrich is pulling out the gloves. Boy. Santorum and Romney, they are really scared now. Shaking in their boots. Watch out boys. Doc Newt is bringin’ the bag of tools to do an operation on Rocky Racoon. Everyone is clearing the bar! … …. Yeah … right. They are scared now. A-huh.

That is sort of how I see it. I am still leaning Romney. But ride Santorum, ride!

1,025 posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:23 PM PST by Brian_Baldwin
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To: gov_bean_ counter

Oooops, well, Newt has won 4th place. Where does that leave Perry?


1,026 posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:27 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: Palladin

and Pslin will never do it either. She wants Trump running. That’s what she said the other day.


1,027 posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:31 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: parksstp

Prediction turning out just about right.


1,028 posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:48 PM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: fatima

Obama DREAMS of running against the ineligible
RomneyCARE who makes Obama’s ineligibility
and ObamaCARE moot.

Loser, Romney is.


1,029 posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:52 PM PST by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: onyx

Don’t change channels yet. Apparently Newt will be making a statement shortly.


1,030 posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:58 PM PST by StarFan
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To: Aroostook25
We lost in 1992, 1996, and 2008.

Yes we did, because we ran RINOs.

Insist on too far right and we will lose in 2012.

WRONG. Remember the 2010 midterm elections, and get a clue. A plurality of Americans are conservative, and WANT the country to swing hard right, after the disastrous left-wing destruction of the last two decades - and especially the last three years.

Reagan was dead right. Conservatism wins, every time it's tried.

1,031 posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:58 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Palladin

Santorum up by only 13 votes with 88% reporting.

Back to praying...


1,032 posted on 01/03/2012 8:09:09 PM PST by Deo volente (God willing, America will survive this Obamination.)
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To: Palladin

Palin I meant.


1,033 posted on 01/03/2012 8:09:25 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: tennmountainman

Negative ads work.


1,034 posted on 01/03/2012 8:09:25 PM PST by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS U.S.A. PRESIDENT)
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To: Wisconsinlady

88% in, Santorum leads by 13 total votes! To give Romney one backhanded compliment his highest percentage in any county is Johnson County, 35% where it actually beat the Paulbots at the University of Iowa. I never would have predicted that.


1,035 posted on 01/03/2012 8:09:26 PM PST by JohnBovenmyer (Obama been Liberal. Hope Change!)
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To: VinL

When is the national caucus?


1,036 posted on 01/03/2012 8:09:30 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: david1313

I totally do not understand this surge for Santorum.

He was not THAT great a senator. He lost his last election by a large majority.

He’s got almost no zest, verve, charisma or personality.

He does not seem like a leader.

Has Iowa gone mad?? Or did they just hate everyone else?


1,037 posted on 01/03/2012 8:09:38 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: Cato in PA

He didn’t bother to run in Iowa. Huntsman would make a better president then any other one up there.

Santorum is the flavor o the week. One of the grosser ones...


1,038 posted on 01/03/2012 8:09:43 PM PST by JosephMama (Who to choose, who to choose...)
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To: shield; Cincinatus' Wife

Well ... I’m gonna go drown my sorrows in a glass or ten of Hershey’s chocolate milk.


1,039 posted on 01/03/2012 8:09:43 PM PST by BuckeyeTexan (Man is not free unless government is limited. ~Ronald Reagan)
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To: Mozilla

Right. Rubio is a natural born citizen.
******************
I believe he is. Wish he would go to Court and seek a declaratory judgment to that effect. Then, the Courts will finally get involved in ALL those who have questionable eligibility.


1,040 posted on 01/03/2012 8:09:59 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: Deo volente

If Santorum is the nominee, the GOP loses and we get another 4 years of Obama.


1,041 posted on 01/03/2012 8:10:05 PM PST by Signalman
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To: Pharmboy

I do not believe that Perot elected Clinton; I believe a fellow named GHWB elected Clinton, just as GWB elected Obama.


1,042 posted on 01/03/2012 8:10:15 PM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for Santorum if he is on the April 3 ballot.)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius; Kansas58

Minor v. Happersett , 88 U.S. 162 (1875)
This case concerned Mrs. Happersett, an original suffragette, who in virtue of the 14th Amendment attempted to register to vote in the State of Missouri, and was refused because she was not a man. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court in that year, wrote the majority opinion, in which he stated:

The Constitution does not in words say who shall be natural-born citizens. Resort must be had elsewhere to ascertain that. At common law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children born in a country of parents who were its citizens became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also. These were natives or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigners. Some authorities go further and include as citizens children born within the jurisdiction without reference to the citizenship of their parents.

United States v. Wong Kim Ark, 169 U.S. 649 (1898)
In this case, Wong Kim Ark, the son of 2 resident Chinese aliens, claimed U.S. Citizenship and was vindicated by the court on the basis of the 14th Amendment. In this case the Justice Gray gave the opinion of the court. On p. 168-9 of the record, He cites approvingly the decision in Minor vs. Happersett:

At common law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children, born in a country of parents who were its citizens, became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also. These were natives, or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigners.


1,043 posted on 01/03/2012 8:10:15 PM PST by Sioux-san
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To: CedarDave

Dave,

Check out this map AGAIN. It’s a Huckaboom again! Rick with WINS in 55 and counting counties across the state.. dominating the map of Iowa’s counties.

Wow!!!

http://iowacaucus.com/results/


1,044 posted on 01/03/2012 8:10:41 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain,Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: taildragger
"Yes that too....I am liking Rich better..

Have a friend with special needs daughter. Santorum has a special needs daughter too ( As does Sarah with her son ).

These folks get life, like we don't, and they are humble... it might be quite the juxtaposition to the arrogance we have seen from Oboingo. It would be good for America IMHO... "

When Rick Santorum was serving as our senator, he employed a good friend of our family. She had a major health problem involving complicated surgery and other treatments. When the insurance company initially denied part of her treatment, the senator became involved personally. He made sure that she had her medical needs covered and that her job would be waiting for her when she was ready to return. I've always remembered him for his basic kindness and decency.

1,045 posted on 01/03/2012 8:10:41 PM PST by Think free or die
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To: CainConservative

Thanks, CainConservative. Very nice.


1,046 posted on 01/03/2012 8:10:57 PM PST by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: Kansas58

You’re asking for a lesson in “Birther 101”.

There was a guy on one thread promulgating the theory that in order to be “natural born” you had to be a direct descendent of one of the people alive when the Constitution was ratified.

So I, according to him, being the grandson of Greek immigrants would be “native born” but not “natural born”.


1,047 posted on 01/03/2012 8:10:57 PM PST by Yankee (ANNOY THE RNC AND THE MEDIA: NOMINATE NEWT GINGRICH!)
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To: VinL

I read it and he will need it and then some.

Give till it hurts!


1,048 posted on 01/03/2012 8:11:12 PM PST by tennmountainman
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To: onyx

They are going to Gingrich HQ very soon. Flip back and forth.


1,049 posted on 01/03/2012 8:11:20 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
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To: onyx

With his nose pressed up against a window of the debate venue???


1,050 posted on 01/03/2012 8:11:36 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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