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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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FOXNews projects Paul at 3rd.


1,051 posted on 01/03/2012 8:11:58 PM PST by matt1234 (Bring back the HUAC.)
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To: RitaOK

the backstabber, Bishop Romney, is NOT ELIGIBLE.

he is nothing but a Soros-backed, DNC-posing saboteur.

Romney is a guaranteed Loss for the GOP.


1,052 posted on 01/03/2012 8:12:03 PM PST by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Brian_Baldwin

Don’t worry about Santorum and the life issues. He’ll spend plenty of time and effort on the economy if he wins the nomination.


1,053 posted on 01/03/2012 8:12:03 PM PST by Deo volente (God willing, America will survive this Obamination.)
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To: Pappy Smear; MSF BU; Free Vulcan; All

810 posted on Tuesday, January 03, 2012 9:34:06 PM by Pappy Smear: “(MSFBU asked) Does anybody know if the later report caucus sites tend to be more or less conservative...?”
One thing I noticed on the map, Jefferson and Story Counties (Fairfield and Ames) have not reported yet. They will likely have strong Paul votes. (Jefferson was the only county Paul won in 08, and Story is home of Iowa State University, where I expect Paul would win. However, 3 NW counties which are huge social conservative counties have not reported. I would think they would be heavy Santorum and Perry support.”

Pappy Smear is right. The later counties to report are generally those in northwest Iowa, which while they may have lower populations have a stronger voice in the caucuses.

With the interesting exception of Plymouth County (just north of the metropolis of Sioux City, Iowa’s largest western city), most have gone for Santorum so far.


1,054 posted on 01/03/2012 8:12:11 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: JohnBovenmyer

Paulbots in Iowa are over 40 dopers.


1,055 posted on 01/03/2012 8:12:18 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: StarFan

Yikes, thanks. I just heard that. The question is when will Faux let him speak?


1,056 posted on 01/03/2012 8:13:10 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: altura

I’d bet there are more Santorum than Perry supporters on FR. So are you saying FR has gone mad also?


1,057 posted on 01/03/2012 8:13:16 PM PST by teg_76
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To: Signalman

I think the other big loser tonight was Ron Paul. I really think he had to go out and win to really have any story to tell. He has a cult following but that will go by the wayside. I think Sanatorum will stay in the picture. Romney’s to lose, unfortunately, and I think tonight’s results are a win. Newt can take SC but I don’t think he goes all the way. The question is, can anyone stop Romney, I know there are a lot a votes against, but unless one person comes out as a true one on one challenger, I think Romney moves through and wins.


1,058 posted on 01/03/2012 8:13:21 PM PST by shoedog
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To: CSI007

” With Newts crushing lose tonight his coffers will dry up fast.” <<<

Conservatives are holding out for the South Carolina contest, thank you very much, where WE get to speak for a change. So, please hold your breath. (Recalling McCain lost to fourth place on this night and won the dang nomination.) Get a grip when you saw legs off.


1,059 posted on 01/03/2012 8:13:36 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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CNN projecting that Ron Paul will finish in 3rd.


1,060 posted on 01/03/2012 8:13:40 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: Cato in PA

I jokingly call Huntsman “Mr Celophane”, after “Chicago”.


1,061 posted on 01/03/2012 8:13:46 PM PST by perplyone
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To: Mozilla
and Pslin will never do it either. She wants Trump running. That’s what she said the other day.

Again, she did not say Trump should run. She likes his fiscal policy and putting America first, but would not endorse him as an independent because she said that Obama must be defeated.

1,062 posted on 01/03/2012 8:13:46 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: altura

I totally do not understand this surge for Santorum.

He was not THAT great a senator. He lost his last election by a large majority.

He’s got almost no zest, verve, charisma or personality.

He does not seem like a leader.

Has Iowa gone mad?? Or did they just hate everyone else?


He’s partly cashing in on the fallout from the blitz of anti-Newt ads run by Romney. Not to say Santorum isn’t a good man on the meat and potato issues. But the Newt vote had to go somewhere and they weren’t going to Mittens, that’s for sure.


1,063 posted on 01/03/2012 8:13:48 PM PST by PaleoBob
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To: Signalman

I don’t think Santorum is bad enough to lose to Obama but it would be close.

He’s a horrible choice. Nice enough guy but ...

All I can say is that Iowa has to be an aberration.


1,064 posted on 01/03/2012 8:14:19 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: tennmountainman

Amen.


1,065 posted on 01/03/2012 8:14:27 PM PST by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: altura

Santorum is conservative and has character. Ask the “Great One” Mark Levin who would pull his lever in VA as would I.


1,066 posted on 01/03/2012 8:14:39 PM PST by Frank Sheed (Fr. V. R. Capodanno, Lt, USN, Catholic Chaplain. 3rd/5th, 1st Marine Div., FMF. MOH, posthumously.)
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To: Free Vulcan
LATEST RESULTS:

Iowa, 82.81% reporting

Romney, 25,335 votes, 25%

Santorum, 24,745 votes, 24%

Paul, 21,634 votes, 21%

Gingrich, 13,625 votes, 13%

1,067 posted on 01/03/2012 8:14:45 PM PST by Wolfstar
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To: altura

Yes, Iowa voted for the Huckster last time, remember?


1,068 posted on 01/03/2012 8:14:49 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: Think free or die

Wow... Thanks great story. I don’t think he has had the money to play the markets either like many in Congress with that brood of kids, it doesn’t seem like he has a lotabucks. Am I right on this?


1,069 posted on 01/03/2012 8:14:52 PM PST by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: Sioux-san
In the Happersett case you quote:

Some authorities go further and include as citizens children born within the jurisdiction without reference to the citizenship of their parents.

And in the Ark case, Ark was born in California to Chinese parents, and was indeed confirmed to be a natural born citizen in that case by being born in the U.S. to non-citizen parents.

Both of these cases would confirm that Marco Rubio is a natural born citizen.

1,070 posted on 01/03/2012 8:15:27 PM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: Palladin

” Carry on the boycott of FOX! “

At last. We agree on something! Happy NEWT year! :)


1,071 posted on 01/03/2012 8:15:39 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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Perry has two counties now

Newt has none


1,072 posted on 01/03/2012 8:15:45 PM PST by mamelukesabre
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To: altura

Well lets’ see.

Zest - Herman Cain
Leader - Herman Cain
Charisma - Herman Cain
Personality - Herman Cain.

Ballot? I don’t see any Herman Cain on it.

Santorum is simply the most conservative man left on the ballot. If you want zest and charisma - go with Herman Cain. Since he’s not available (sold out), so they say, you grab yourself some Santorum instead. Filling, nutritious. :)


1,073 posted on 01/03/2012 8:15:45 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Palladin

I changed the channel when Sanford came on.

The Fox brand has become very sick. I’ll avoid them as much as I can.


1,074 posted on 01/03/2012 8:15:53 PM PST by Gator113 (~Just livin' life, my way~..... GO NEWT GO.....!)
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To: eyedigress

Ron Paul speaking now - he’s more like an actor (a bad one) trying to play the role of a candidate than the real thing


1,075 posted on 01/03/2012 8:15:53 PM PST by bigbob
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To: Diogenesis

“... Soros-backed, DNC-posing saboteur.

Romney is a guaranteed Loss for the GOP.”

BINGO!

Go Newt! Go Santorum! Double Team Willard!!


1,076 posted on 01/03/2012 8:15:53 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: Diogenesis

No, he isn’t a loss for the GOP. Paul would have been though.

Here is what nobody is mentioning. Someone posted earlier that Paul got something like 48% of votes that only registered Republican today. That means that his total of Republican votes would actually put him lower than Perry. He is toast!

Go Santorum!


1,077 posted on 01/03/2012 8:16:06 PM PST by chilepup
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To: eyedigress

Okay, thanks very much!


1,078 posted on 01/03/2012 8:16:07 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: Windflier

I’ve been posting here since 1998 and donated money to keep this site going over the years. If someone wants to ban me for stating my opinion so be it. I used to think FR was a free and open forum. Not like the police at DU.


1,079 posted on 01/03/2012 8:16:28 PM PST by gswilder
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To: RitaOK

Elaine Benise to Mrs. Ron Paul....”Is that real fur?”


1,080 posted on 01/03/2012 8:16:31 PM PST by Texas Songwriter (Ia)
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To: Palladin

“The Newtie is now Second Tier.”

Which is FAR better than the 3rd-tier, hopeless candidate with NO MONEY, that he was before.

Newt is still in this.

He’s actually running tied for third, since so many Ron Paul voters are actually DEMOCRATS on same-day registrations., since around


1,081 posted on 01/03/2012 8:16:31 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: CedarDave

She said Trump should go ahead and run. It should make the republican party work harder for their candidate. She also said for the people against him on the right to quit attacking him.


1,082 posted on 01/03/2012 8:16:45 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: tennmountainman

I read it and he will need it and then some.
************

Your read Newt has enough money? Great. But, then I don’t understand why you would post that his money has dried up.


1,083 posted on 01/03/2012 8:16:53 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: PaleoBob

Santorum is a fiscal, social and security conservative. His drawback is that he has a propensity to whine. If he can control that he can beat Obama.


1,084 posted on 01/03/2012 8:16:59 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: altura

I totally do not understand this surge for Santorum

Flavor of the month. South Carolina will be different


1,085 posted on 01/03/2012 8:17:09 PM PST by make no mistake
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To: grey_whiskers; Windflier; Aroostook25; 50mm; darkwing104; Old Sarge; TheOldLady; Jim Robinson
Please read post #846, sniff or something.

Post 948 is pretty prophetic also!!! ;)

1,086 posted on 01/03/2012 8:17:11 PM PST by DCBryan1 ("Forget the Lawyers! FIRST YOU MUST kill the journalists!" - Die Ritter, die sagen, "nee"!)
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To: Free Vulcan; All

Fairfield, Iowa, home of the “meditator” nuts in a Hindu-themed college who for some reson supporterd Ron Paul last year, still haasn’t reported. Otherwise things are looking good for Santorum where that was expected.


1,087 posted on 01/03/2012 8:17:24 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: Free Vulcan

ARGH! Romney just pulled into the lead...

Mitt Romney 27,101 24.7%
Rick Santorum 26,976 24.6%
Ron Paul 23,155 21.1%
Newt Gingrich 14,576 13.3%
Rick Perry 11,279 10.3%
Michele Bachmann 5,576 5.1%
Jon Huntsman 645 0.6%


1,088 posted on 01/03/2012 8:17:32 PM PST by Cato in PA (Hope and pray for the Santorum surge!)
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To: teg_76

I’ll bet there are not.

Santorum was not a blip on anyone’s radar until he suddenly gained this Iowa popularity.

I never saw any Santorum threads.

There are Rick Perry threads every day.

But this is just a flash in the pan. It may get him some money (he needs it) and it will get him a little publicity but he’ll never make it all the way.


1,089 posted on 01/03/2012 8:17:38 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: bigbob

It’s waaaaaaaaay past Uncle Racist Ron’s bedtime.


1,090 posted on 01/03/2012 8:17:45 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: Deo volente

Exactly. We prolifers are perfectly happy to let Santorum talk all day on cutting the budget, fiscal sanity etc.

Izzat a deal? You guys back Santorum, and hold his feet to the fire on the pocketbook issues.


1,091 posted on 01/03/2012 8:17:58 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: gov_bean_ counter

Okay. Only the first four get the invitations to the SC debate. I get it. Newt is IN. Thanks very much.


1,092 posted on 01/03/2012 8:17:58 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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Ron Paul blabbing.


1,093 posted on 01/03/2012 8:18:05 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: All

Ron Paul is giving his speech now, watching on Fox News, and I think he said he was in Ohio...not Iowa! LOL.

Anyone else catch that?


1,094 posted on 01/03/2012 8:18:18 PM PST by KJC1
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To: tcrlaf

Obama promised us $5 gas.

It will be his undoing.


1,095 posted on 01/03/2012 8:18:18 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: chilepup

Just tuned after a long day of work... glad to see Santorum at the top. God bless him... hope he prevails over the Mitt.


1,096 posted on 01/03/2012 8:18:34 PM PST by antceecee (Bless us Father.. have mercy on us and protect us from evil.)
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To: BenKenobi

When is the national caucus?

************
Hi Ben, fellow Cain supporter. If you’re talking about the national convention, I have no idea. Sorry.


1,097 posted on 01/03/2012 8:18:53 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: gswilder
I used to think FR was a free and open forum.

I also go back that far here, but FR is not what it used to be. Hasn't been in quite a few years now.

1,098 posted on 01/03/2012 8:19:09 PM PST by Wolfstar
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To: onyx
Yes, Iowa voted for the Huckster last time, remember?

And he came in second in SC, just 3 points behind McCain. Santorum will also be very strong in SC.

1,099 posted on 01/03/2012 8:19:12 PM PST by Prokopton
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To: Windflier
...A plurality of Americans are conservative...

Don't get fooled by those ideology poll numbers. I was polled by Gallup with that question. I answered conservative, but many Freepers disagree with that self identification. A New Yorker or Bostonian may answer conservative and mean something very different than someone from Lincoln, Spokane, or Cape Giradeau. Liberal is an homogenized monicker. Conservative has a multiplicity of meanings.

1,100 posted on 01/03/2012 8:19:12 PM PST by xkaydet65 (IACTA ALEA EST!!!')
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