Skip to comments.2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
FOXNews projects Paul at 3rd.
the backstabber, Bishop Romney, is NOT ELIGIBLE.
he is nothing but a Soros-backed, DNC-posing saboteur.
Romney is a guaranteed Loss for the GOP.
Don’t worry about Santorum and the life issues. He’ll spend plenty of time and effort on the economy if he wins the nomination.
810 posted on Tuesday, January 03, 2012 9:34:06 PM by Pappy Smear: “(MSFBU asked) Does anybody know if the later report caucus sites tend to be more or less conservative...?”
One thing I noticed on the map, Jefferson and Story Counties (Fairfield and Ames) have not reported yet. They will likely have strong Paul votes. (Jefferson was the only county Paul won in 08, and Story is home of Iowa State University, where I expect Paul would win. However, 3 NW counties which are huge social conservative counties have not reported. I would think they would be heavy Santorum and Perry support.”
Pappy Smear is right. The later counties to report are generally those in northwest Iowa, which while they may have lower populations have a stronger voice in the caucuses.
With the interesting exception of Plymouth County (just north of the metropolis of Sioux City, Iowa’s largest western city), most have gone for Santorum so far.
Paulbots in Iowa are over 40 dopers.
Yikes, thanks. I just heard that. The question is when will Faux let him speak?
I’d bet there are more Santorum than Perry supporters on FR. So are you saying FR has gone mad also?
I think the other big loser tonight was Ron Paul. I really think he had to go out and win to really have any story to tell. He has a cult following but that will go by the wayside. I think Sanatorum will stay in the picture. Romney’s to lose, unfortunately, and I think tonight’s results are a win. Newt can take SC but I don’t think he goes all the way. The question is, can anyone stop Romney, I know there are a lot a votes against, but unless one person comes out as a true one on one challenger, I think Romney moves through and wins.
” With Newts crushing lose tonight his coffers will dry up fast.” <<<
Conservatives are holding out for the South Carolina contest, thank you very much, where WE get to speak for a change. So, please hold your breath. (Recalling McCain lost to fourth place on this night and won the dang nomination.) Get a grip when you saw legs off.
CNN projecting that Ron Paul will finish in 3rd.
I jokingly call Huntsman “Mr Celophane”, after “Chicago”.
Again, she did not say Trump should run. She likes his fiscal policy and putting America first, but would not endorse him as an independent because she said that Obama must be defeated.
I totally do not understand this surge for Santorum.
He was not THAT great a senator. He lost his last election by a large majority.
Hes got almost no zest, verve, charisma or personality.
He does not seem like a leader.
Has Iowa gone mad?? Or did they just hate everyone else?
I don’t think Santorum is bad enough to lose to Obama but it would be close.
He’s a horrible choice. Nice enough guy but ...
All I can say is that Iowa has to be an aberration.
Santorum is conservative and has character. Ask the “Great One” Mark Levin who would pull his lever in VA as would I.
Iowa, 82.81% reporting
Romney, 25,335 votes, 25%
Santorum, 24,745 votes, 24%
Paul, 21,634 votes, 21%
Gingrich, 13,625 votes, 13%
Yes, Iowa voted for the Huckster last time, remember?
Wow... Thanks great story. I don’t think he has had the money to play the markets either like many in Congress with that brood of kids, it doesn’t seem like he has a lotabucks. Am I right on this?
Some authorities go further and include as citizens children born within the jurisdiction without reference to the citizenship of their parents.
And in the Ark case, Ark was born in California to Chinese parents, and was indeed confirmed to be a natural born citizen in that case by being born in the U.S. to non-citizen parents.
Both of these cases would confirm that Marco Rubio is a natural born citizen.
” Carry on the boycott of FOX! “
At last. We agree on something! Happy NEWT year! :)
Perry has two counties now
Newt has none
Well lets’ see.
Zest - Herman Cain
Leader - Herman Cain
Charisma - Herman Cain
Personality - Herman Cain.
Ballot? I don’t see any Herman Cain on it.
Santorum is simply the most conservative man left on the ballot. If you want zest and charisma - go with Herman Cain. Since he’s not available (sold out), so they say, you grab yourself some Santorum instead. Filling, nutritious. :)
I changed the channel when Sanford came on.
The Fox brand has become very sick. I’ll avoid them as much as I can.
Ron Paul speaking now - he’s more like an actor (a bad one) trying to play the role of a candidate than the real thing
“... Soros-backed, DNC-posing saboteur.
Romney is a guaranteed Loss for the GOP.”
Go Newt! Go Santorum! Double Team Willard!!
No, he isn’t a loss for the GOP. Paul would have been though.
Here is what nobody is mentioning. Someone posted earlier that Paul got something like 48% of votes that only registered Republican today. That means that his total of Republican votes would actually put him lower than Perry. He is toast!
Okay, thanks very much!
I’ve been posting here since 1998 and donated money to keep this site going over the years. If someone wants to ban me for stating my opinion so be it. I used to think FR was a free and open forum. Not like the police at DU.
Elaine Benise to Mrs. Ron Paul....”Is that real fur?”
“The Newtie is now Second Tier.”
Which is FAR better than the 3rd-tier, hopeless candidate with NO MONEY, that he was before.
Newt is still in this.
He’s actually running tied for third, since so many Ron Paul voters are actually DEMOCRATS on same-day registrations., since around
She said Trump should go ahead and run. It should make the republican party work harder for their candidate. She also said for the people against him on the right to quit attacking him.
I read it and he will need it and then some.
Your read Newt has enough money? Great. But, then I don’t understand why you would post that his money has dried up.
Santorum is a fiscal, social and security conservative. His drawback is that he has a propensity to whine. If he can control that he can beat Obama.
I totally do not understand this surge for Santorum
Flavor of the month. South Carolina will be different
Post 948 is pretty prophetic also!!! ;)
Fairfield, Iowa, home of the “meditator” nuts in a Hindu-themed college who for some reson supporterd Ron Paul last year, still haasn’t reported. Otherwise things are looking good for Santorum where that was expected.
ARGH! Romney just pulled into the lead...
Mitt Romney 27,101 24.7%
Rick Santorum 26,976 24.6%
Ron Paul 23,155 21.1%
Newt Gingrich 14,576 13.3%
Rick Perry 11,279 10.3%
Michele Bachmann 5,576 5.1%
Jon Huntsman 645 0.6%
I’ll bet there are not.
Santorum was not a blip on anyone’s radar until he suddenly gained this Iowa popularity.
I never saw any Santorum threads.
There are Rick Perry threads every day.
But this is just a flash in the pan. It may get him some money (he needs it) and it will get him a little publicity but he’ll never make it all the way.
It’s waaaaaaaaay past Uncle Racist Ron’s bedtime.
Exactly. We prolifers are perfectly happy to let Santorum talk all day on cutting the budget, fiscal sanity etc.
Izzat a deal? You guys back Santorum, and hold his feet to the fire on the pocketbook issues.
Okay. Only the first four get the invitations to the SC debate. I get it. Newt is IN. Thanks very much.
Ron Paul blabbing.
Ron Paul is giving his speech now, watching on Fox News, and I think he said he was in Ohio...not Iowa! LOL.
Anyone else catch that?
Obama promised us $5 gas.
It will be his undoing.
Just tuned after a long day of work... glad to see Santorum at the top. God bless him... hope he prevails over the Mitt.
When is the national caucus?
Hi Ben, fellow Cain supporter. If you’re talking about the national convention, I have no idea. Sorry.
I also go back that far here, but FR is not what it used to be. Hasn't been in quite a few years now.
And he came in second in SC, just 3 points behind McCain. Santorum will also be very strong in SC.
Don't get fooled by those ideology poll numbers. I was polled by Gallup with that question. I answered conservative, but many Freepers disagree with that self identification. A New Yorker or Bostonian may answer conservative and mean something very different than someone from Lincoln, Spokane, or Cape Giradeau. Liberal is an homogenized monicker. Conservative has a multiplicity of meanings.