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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: make no mistake

I agree, and I actually like(and have a lot of respect for) Santorum.


1,101 posted on 01/03/2012 8:19:16 PM PST by Calliecat
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To: Gator113

Mark Sanford is actually one of the sharpest political analysts I’ve heard. It’s too bad he made such a mess of his personal life and marriage, but that’s between him and God.


1,102 posted on 01/03/2012 8:19:36 PM PST by bigbob
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To: Wolfstar

89% in,
Santorum up by 25 votes!
(Another overtime period, who’s going to miss a field goal to win?)


1,103 posted on 01/03/2012 8:19:39 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: onyx
No problem. I owe you one

times a thousand. :)

1,104 posted on 01/03/2012 8:19:39 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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To: antceecee

Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann drop out for the good of the country....you lost!


1,105 posted on 01/03/2012 8:19:55 PM PST by teg_76
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To: Signalman

If Santorum is the nominee, Obama doesn’t even need to campaign.

These bible thumpers who think abortion and gay marriage are the most important things right now need to get real.


1,106 posted on 01/03/2012 8:20:03 PM PST by AFveteran (Enraging liberals is simply one of the more enjoyable side effects of my wisdom. -Rush)
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To: onyx

Yeah, but Perry and Bachmann are out. So Newt survived beating Perry, but now he’s got to contend with the fact that the Bachmann supporters and Perry supporters will likely go to Santorum now.

So we shall see. It’s a two man race, Newt vs Rick Santorum now.


1,107 posted on 01/03/2012 8:20:03 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Mozilla

I do NOT understand how anyone can support Ron Paul...


1,108 posted on 01/03/2012 8:20:07 PM PST by Shortstop7
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To: altura

Don’t be a sore LOSER. Get on board the Newt/Santorum train. We saved you Perry supporters a seat in the caboose.


1,109 posted on 01/03/2012 8:20:07 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: bigbob

Can you see this going up against Obama? Good Grief


1,110 posted on 01/03/2012 8:20:12 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
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To: Mozilla

I do NOT understand how anyone can support Ron Paul...


1,111 posted on 01/03/2012 8:20:12 PM PST by Shortstop7
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To: altura

Nutz to you!


1,112 posted on 01/03/2012 8:20:38 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: make no mistake
I totally do not understand this surge for Santorum

Well, he didn't implement Romneycare.

He doesn't support in state tuition for illegals and call people that oppose it heartless.

He doesn't team up with Nancy Pelosi to save the world from Anthropogenic Global Warming.

He never supported cap and trade.

He is however a social, fiscal and security conservative.

I can't understand why conservatives would vote for him either.

1,113 posted on 01/03/2012 8:21:00 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: VinL

It depends on what u call money!

When he goes negative, his numbers will drop.

And he will get sliced and diced like he did in Iowa.

He should have used a lot more of that money in Iowa.
He went from 1st to 4th in 3 weeks. Pitiful.


1,114 posted on 01/03/2012 8:21:15 PM PST by tennmountainman
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To: grey_whiskers
We lost in 1992, 1996, and 2008. Insist on too far right and we will lose in 2012.

The GOP candidates in 92 (H.W.Bush), 96 (Dole), & 08 (McCain), were self proclaimed moderates, not "far right."

Nominate the moderate and lose in 2012.

1,115 posted on 01/03/2012 8:21:29 PM PST by HapaxLegamenon
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To: shoedog

If Ron Paul loses, who do you think his followers will go to? Or will they just not vote or right him in? I guess my question is who benefit from his loss if anyone? i hope not Obama.


1,116 posted on 01/03/2012 8:21:52 PM PST by Wisconsinlady (DEFUND NPR, PBS, THE TSA AND THE U.N.)
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To: teg_76
So are you saying FR has gone mad also?

This freeper is going mad, watching his country being destroyed;^(

1,117 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:09 PM PST by DeepInTheHeartOfTexas
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To: AFveteran

Maybe you heathens need to get real


1,118 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:11 PM PST by Rodm
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To: jwalsh07

125 VOTE difference between ROMNEY and RICK now!!!! Per Drudge


1,119 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:11 PM PST by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: Yankee
There was a guy on one thread promulgating the theory that in order to be “natural born” you had to be a direct descendent of one of the people alive when the Constitution was ratified.

Woot, Woot, I am one of those, should I run?

1,120 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:15 PM PST by sockmonkey (He's not perfect, but Perry is no wussy boy)
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To: AFveteran

So true. Santorum is pathetic.


1,121 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:22 PM PST by JosephMama (Who to choose, who to choose...)
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To: Cato in PA

Still favorable counties for Santorum: Franklin, Madison, Worth.

Monona and Harrison too close to call in how that’s going to go. Woodbury got swung to Santorum

Santorum performed way strong in NW IA, outpolling Huckabee’s numbers in some districts which is a shock. Means some Perry/Bachmann voters went to him.


1,122 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:22 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: AFveteran

Santorum will insure an Obama victory. A social conservative is not what we need right now.


1,123 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:31 PM PST by Signalman
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To: CedarDave

All that $$$$ Romney spent really hurt Newt but did NOTHING for Romney—He is where he was back in the begining

Santorum was the beneficiary


1,124 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:41 PM PST by uncbob
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To: CainConservative

A VERY impressive victory shown on that map no matter how the final 10% comes in.


1,125 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:41 PM PST by Proud2BeRight
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To: CedarDave

Fiesta Bowl Santorum = the Okie State of politcians

Win Rick Win!


1,126 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:42 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: Prokopton
FOX projects Gingrich will finish 4th, Perry 5th.

Both of them "out of the money".

We’ll see.

Have you ever heard of “the Angle” at Gettysburg? It is also referred to as the The High-water Mark of the Confederacy.

That’s Rick Santorum tonight.

There are many more battles to come.

1,127 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:46 PM PST by Yankee (ANNOY THE RNC AND THE MEDIA: NOMINATE NEWT GINGRICH!)
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To: Shortstop7

People high on meth love Ron Paul..that and Anti Semites who hate Israel..mix those together and you have a Ron Paul supporter


1,128 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:46 PM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: CainConservative

Santorum/Newt. Delegate wise, Rick’s in the driver seat.


1,129 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:53 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Wisconsinlady

Not who, what. They’ll go back to smoking pot, free love, and all the other wonderful things they enjoy so much.


1,130 posted on 01/03/2012 8:22:53 PM PST by Cato in PA (Hope and pray for the Santorum surge!)
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To: jwalsh07

Yeah, he was a GREAT conservative when he supported Specter over Toomey.


1,131 posted on 01/03/2012 8:23:07 PM PST by AFveteran (Enraging liberals is simply one of the more enjoyable side effects of my wisdom. -Rush)
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To: jwalsh07

We must unite to beat Obama and Romney. Santourm likes to really go after those he disagrees with so plan on that in the next debate. He would be the right guy to bash Romney.


1,132 posted on 01/03/2012 8:23:12 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: Proud2BeRight

True dat : )


1,133 posted on 01/03/2012 8:23:28 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: grey_whiskers
Please read post #846, sniff or something.

I read it, and commented immediately, with righteous indignation. I recommended the zot, too.

1,134 posted on 01/03/2012 8:23:28 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: darrellmaurina
Fairfield, Iowa, home of the “meditator” nuts in a Hindu-themed college

OMG, I've been there. Truly a strange place. A former employer had a branch office there, and we paid a visit. Most of the employees had pictures of the bagwan (or whatever he is) on their desks! They told me all about the powers of collective meditation.

1,135 posted on 01/03/2012 8:23:33 PM PST by matt1234 (Bring back the HUAC.)
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To: Wisconsinlady
I was disappointed that Palin did not endorse Santorum tonight on Greta.

If she were to endorse Santorum, waiting is still better. Like others are saying, Santorum's Iowa win cuts two days out of Romney's media push going into New Hampshire. Palin could knock an additional day or two out of it by holding off. Or, since Romney will pick up NH anyway, she could help give Santorum (or whoever) another surge going into SC. There's just no point changing the news yet when it's favorable.

1,136 posted on 01/03/2012 8:23:54 PM PST by Styria
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To: CainConservative
We saved you Perry supporters a seat in the caboose.

Perry is clearly closest to Santorum. If Perry drops out, Perry supporters will be welcome at the front of the Santorum train. Newt can watch it go by from the station.

1,137 posted on 01/03/2012 8:23:54 PM PST by Prokopton
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To: Signalman

Santorum will go on to win.


1,138 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:01 PM PST by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: Rodm

So typical to resort to name calling others “heathens” since they disagree with you. But hey I guess that’s dogma.


1,139 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:01 PM PST by JosephMama (Who to choose, who to choose...)
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To: AFveteran

Where did you come from??

A lot of FReepers here are those “bible thumpers” you so casually denigrate.


1,140 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:11 PM PST by Deo volente (God willing, America will survive this Obamination.)
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To: teg_76

That is your opinion. Bachmann needs to do her job in Congress and Perry with his propensity to trip over his tongue and brain in a debate would lose against Obama. I think far from losing we still have a chance.


1,141 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:11 PM PST by antceecee (Bless us Father.. have mercy on us and protect us from evil.)
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To: pollywog

Hard to believe how close this is. Feels like election night 2000 all over again !


1,142 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:28 PM PST by gswilder
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To: BenKenobi

Only 55% of this Country is pro-life so why is it a losing issue supposedly. It is only a losing issue to the Country Club wives.

Pray for America


1,143 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:28 PM PST by bray (Romney is the Establishment)
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To: AFveteran

I am certain us bible thumpers know what is most important right now. Many people are suffering terribly right now. What is most important is to get a real conservative into office that can change that as quickly as possible. If not, the republic is doomed.


1,144 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:38 PM PST by CSI007
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To: HapaxLegamenon; Mind-numbed Robot
I've been having a bad run the last week or so of flaming people to a crisp, then getting blowback for it.

So I'll trying saying this calmly.

Yes, I quite agree. The statement that "We lost in 1992, 1996, and 2008..." was *not* mine.

It belonged to the person I was replying to (and I was correcting them, just like you are).

I included it in italics in my post as a courtesy.

Thanks for your attention.

MNR, indirect courtesy *PING* : I'll try to calm down my instant pit-bull mode.

cheers!

1,145 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:38 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Shortstop7

“I do NOT understand how anyone can support Ron Paul...”

The dopey leftist pukes support him, and are obviously engaged in a massive dirty trick by registering as Republicans just to vote for him, while spamming EVERY poll, month after month for “their” guy.

It should be a rule... if you switch over to vote Republican in a primary, you CANNOT vote democrat in the general election. These immoral cretins, though, don’t have the slightest reservation about cheating... and why would they? That’s how they get by in life.


1,146 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:52 PM PST by Pravious
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To: jwalsh07

Good Point, he’s toast. </Sarc>


1,147 posted on 01/03/2012 8:24:55 PM PST by HapaxLegamenon
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To: HapaxLegamenon; Mind-numbed Robot
I've been having a bad run the last week or so of flaming people to a crisp, then getting blowback for it.

So I'll try saying this calmly.

Yes, I quite agree. The statement that "We lost in 1992, 1996, and 2008..." was *not* mine.

It belonged to the person I was replying to (and I was correcting them, just like you are).

I included it in italics in my post as a courtesy.

Thanks for your attention.

MNR, indirect courtesy *PING* : I'll try to calm down my instant pit-bull mode.

cheers!

1,148 posted on 01/03/2012 8:25:00 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Yankee

Rick Santorum is the Southerner? Good thing we’ve got SC coming up, but he’s down 125 right now to Romney.

We’d best not give Romney the lead, gives him more ground that has to be made up.


1,149 posted on 01/03/2012 8:25:15 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: sockmonkey

Sorry, I refuse to vote for a sockmonkey.


1,150 posted on 01/03/2012 8:25:16 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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