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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: pollywog

Awwww....blushing! Thanks FRiend!


1,251 posted on 01/03/2012 8:37:48 PM PST by DCBryan1 ("Forget the Lawyers! FIRST YOU MUST kill the journalists!" - Die Ritter, die sagen, "nee"!)
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To: All
From Wikipedia: January 19, 1976 – "Uncommitted" (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%)

NOTE; Carter went on to win...

1,252 posted on 01/03/2012 8:37:48 PM PST by PghBaldy (War Powers Res: http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp)
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To: BenKenobi

Rick’s up 99 now with 93% in.


1,253 posted on 01/03/2012 8:37:48 PM PST by digital-olive
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To: Rational Thought

“Your point is taken, but with all the money Perry supporters threw into Iowa with the big TV buys, and to finish in 5th place, I have to believe the money is about to dry up.”

BINGO!


1,254 posted on 01/03/2012 8:38:12 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: Palladin

It does have the look and feel of a wake at Newt headquarters. Also, Newt is coming across as very humble tonight. I don’t think he’s finished yet.


1,255 posted on 01/03/2012 8:38:14 PM PST by SamAdams76 (I am 34 days away from outliving Marty Feldman)
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To: darrellmaurina

CNN said an hour ago that the western rural counties were in at only 3%. They are the CONSERVATIVE rural Iowa.


1,256 posted on 01/03/2012 8:38:21 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: bigbob

That is just the stupidest looking hairstyle.

Did someone convince her that it looks good?

It’s hideous.


1,257 posted on 01/03/2012 8:38:28 PM PST by Yankee (ANNOY THE RNC AND THE MEDIA: NOMINATE NEWT GINGRICH!)
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To: AFveteran; 50mm; darkwing104; Arrowhead1952; TheOldLady; grey_whiskers; Lady Jag; Allegra; Chode; ..
These bible thumpers who think abortion and gay marriage are the most important things right now need to get real.

Ooooo, that was a one-way ticket to ride the lightning!


1,258 posted on 01/03/2012 8:38:34 PM PST by Old Sarge (RIP FReeper Skyraider (1930-2011) - You Are Missed)
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To: BenKenobi

Monona should be good for Santorum, but there’s still a handful in East IA. Romney could make up a small margin.


1,259 posted on 01/03/2012 8:38:38 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: Rational Thought

I don’t agree. Perry supporters are very loyal and Perry is tenacious.

He’ll have to do badly in South Carolina for Perry supporters to even think of giving up and probably not then.


1,260 posted on 01/03/2012 8:38:51 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: BenKenobi

No national delegates are picked tonight in Iowa. There was secret ballot for presidential preference, and all delegates to the next (county) level are uncommitted. That means that the party regulars, mostly RINOs supporting Romney, will hold sway regardless of the straw vote.


1,261 posted on 01/03/2012 8:39:08 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: altura

“Thank the good Lord that I will not have to hear the word Iowa for another 8 years.

I may give up corn.

Wish I could give up ethanol.”

Altura, one of the best posts of the night!


1,262 posted on 01/03/2012 8:39:08 PM PST by varina davis (We grow too soon old and too late smart -- Pennsylvania Dutch adage)
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To: WilliamHouston

Seeing reports the 50% of Paul’s votes are new registrations *ie, Dems)...Iowa a farce once again...


1,263 posted on 01/03/2012 8:39:18 PM PST by magritte
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To: DCBryan1

Here’s a hug (((((Hug)))))


1,264 posted on 01/03/2012 8:39:43 PM PST by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: SamAdams76

Newt just spanked Willard hard in his speech.


1,265 posted on 01/03/2012 8:39:43 PM PST by TADSLOS (Rick Perry- The Double Dipping il Duce. He'll overhaul congress and make the trains run on time.)
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To: xkaydet65
Liberal is an homogenized monicker. Conservative has a multiplicity of meanings.

I guess for a RINO or a lib, it would. Which one are you?

1,266 posted on 01/03/2012 8:40:08 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Deo volente
"You Bible Thumpers"

AFveteran This account has been banned or suspended.

Excellent! Party Time! Wayne's World! Party Time!

1,267 posted on 01/03/2012 8:40:12 PM PST by DCBryan1 ("Forget the Lawyers! FIRST YOU MUST kill the journalists!" - Die Ritter, die sagen, "nee"!)
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To: SamAdams76
Newt made a great speech.

Willard made a big mistake in ticking him off.

1,268 posted on 01/03/2012 8:40:27 PM PST by Tribune7 (Vote Perry or Gingrich, maybe. OK Santorum too)
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To: tennmountainman

Romney’s to lose, unfortunately, and I think tonight’s results are a win.
***************

Because Iowa is meaningless!!!- as is New Hampshire. In the past 30 years, the candidate who has won SC wins the nomination— that’s where one spends the money.


1,269 posted on 01/03/2012 8:40:27 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: angelcindy

I think he is 76.


1,270 posted on 01/03/2012 8:40:33 PM PST by EEGator
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To: digital-olive

Still wayyy to close to call.


1,271 posted on 01/03/2012 8:40:33 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: fatima

Missed it.Watching Fox news just to piss everyone off:)
+++++++++++++
OK, I’m going give you an honorary banning from FR for a period of 24 hours for violating the Boycott Faux News Rule.;-)


1,272 posted on 01/03/2012 8:40:48 PM PST by InterceptPoint (TIN)
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To: Rational Thought

“Your point is taken, but with all the money Perry supporters threw into Iowa with the big TV buys, and to finish in 5th place, I have to believe the money is about to dry up.”

BINGO!

Btw, I see PURPLE, baby!!! http://iowacaucus.com/results/


1,273 posted on 01/03/2012 8:40:48 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: altura
I totally do not understand this surge for Santorum.

Me neither. I couldn't believe it this morning when I heard that Rupert Murdock was endorsing Santorum?

1,274 posted on 01/03/2012 8:40:56 PM PST by alicewonders ((GO PERRY!))
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To: Prokopton

Supporters of family values will not go to Newt.

Women will not go to Freddie Newt either. Three marriages, two divorces.


1,275 posted on 01/03/2012 8:41:02 PM PST by tennmountainman
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To: magritte

“Seeing reports the 50% of Paul’s votes are new registrations *ie, Dems)...Iowa a farce once again...”

Indeed. WHY do we allow our enemy to play ANY role in choosing our candidate?

Surely SOMETHING can be done about this blatant cheating.


1,276 posted on 01/03/2012 8:41:13 PM PST by Pravious
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To: US Navy Vet

“I was the Caucus Chairman.”

That must be fun to be one of the Caucus Chairs!


1,277 posted on 01/03/2012 8:41:20 PM PST by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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To: Anti-Hillary

LOL. Yes! and he tore him apart in such a calm voice, but Newt has been sick all week, so he’s lacked his usual energy.

Prayers for him to get well ASAP.


1,278 posted on 01/03/2012 8:41:25 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: Admin Moderator

Bravo!


1,279 posted on 01/03/2012 8:41:40 PM PST by LUV W (This tagline reserved for a hero.......)
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To: Cato in PA

Thanks Cato in PA ((((Hugs))))


1,280 posted on 01/03/2012 8:41:53 PM PST by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: Mozilla

I’d like to know when exactly some of these so called conservatives think the time “IS” right for a social conservative. Because regardless of the conditions on the ground it never seems to be the right time. Perhaps they will explain it.


1,281 posted on 01/03/2012 8:41:53 PM PST by Norm Lenhart (Curse you, Norm Lenhart! Im slain, crumpled in a ditch by your obvious superiority - Humblegunner)
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To: Rational Thought

Big money doesn’t “dry up” in big Texas. The big bucks will back Perry quicker than boy scout Santorum.


1,282 posted on 01/03/2012 8:41:53 PM PST by varina davis (We grow too soon old and too late smart -- Pennsylvania Dutch adage)
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To: SamAdams76

It had the look and the sound of a final concession speech.

I wonder who Newt will back now?


1,283 posted on 01/03/2012 8:42:15 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: Windflier
Major take away from tonight is that Romney is STILL AND OFFICIALLY stuck at around 25%. If the field thins relatively quickly, the Mittster is done.
1,284 posted on 01/03/2012 8:42:15 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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To: jjotto

True, but it’s very, very good news for Santorum here. His showing is going to really help him out nationally, and in South Carolina.


1,285 posted on 01/03/2012 8:42:42 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Wisconsinlady

Oh, he made a lot of votes in the Senate that people didn’t like and I think his disastrous failure in his last senate run will crop up.

What happened there? Why did people despise him so much?

He just doesn’t seem to be a guy who can create any real enthusiasm ... except, apparently, in Iowa.

I just mean that nobody has attacked him because nobody’s paid any attention to him.

All his weaknesses will be highlighted and exploited and he will look pouty and whiney when he tries to refute them.

He’s just not an attractive candidate.

But maybe that’s just me.


1,286 posted on 01/03/2012 8:43:01 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: altura
small state

Iowa has roughly 2/3 the population of South Carolina. And more than double the population of New Hampshire. We're not that small a state. We're a medium sized state! Yes we choose to select our candidates differently. Respect the 10th and our choice! You don't want a BIG state to start the process as that would assure the nomination to whomever has the biggest sugar daddy in their pocket. Starting in Iowa gives a decent, but little known candidate a chance to shine. And give us credit for knocking the Minnesota candidates out of the race, first TPaw and, unless she's less sane than Paul, Bachman.

1,287 posted on 01/03/2012 8:43:09 PM PST by JohnBovenmyer (Obama been Liberal. Hope Change!)
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To: gov_bean_ counter

Major takeaway for me is that Brett Baier cannot do simple mental arithmetic.

Must’ve gone to publik skool.


1,288 posted on 01/03/2012 8:43:30 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: Tribune7

“Newt made a great speech.

Willard made a big mistake in ticking him off.”

He sure did. Go Bible Thumping Newt and Santorum all the way to the White House!!


1,289 posted on 01/03/2012 8:43:36 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: CainConservative

If so, then Perry will be out, but his backers may be taking a longer term view and hey, it’s (more/less) a free country and they can throw their money away as long as they wish.

Newt is in the same position, but if he does nothing more than lead the fight against Romney, it will have served a noble purpose. Fox News just showed a full page ad he’s taking out, comparing himself against Romney. He may end up in a virtual “tag team” with Santorum, being the bad guy who goes after Romney so Santorum can stay positive.


1,290 posted on 01/03/2012 8:43:36 PM PST by bigbob
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To: Free Vulcan

According to the Washington Times site, Story County has only reported 7% of its votes (3 out of 43 precincts). Romney is currently leading there 97 to 67 over Santorum. I don’t like that. That doesn’t bode well. That may be where the race is decided.


1,291 posted on 01/03/2012 8:43:36 PM PST by Engraved-on-His-hands
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To: Tribune7

AMEN!!! Was it just me, or did you get the sense that Newt will stay in long enough to bitch slap Romney around and use the platform to bolster Santorum???


1,292 posted on 01/03/2012 8:43:40 PM PST by Anti-Hillary
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To: Windflier

Brett B attempting to tally votes/margins but having trouble mastering the intricacies of a hand-held calculator...threw it to break. Just how many fnc talking heads does it take to cipher anyway?


1,293 posted on 01/03/2012 8:43:55 PM PST by Dysart (#Changeitback)
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To: Yankee
Have you ever heard of “the Angle” at Gettysburg? It is also referred to as the The High-water Mark of the Confederacy.

They aren't the same. The Angle contains the High Water Mark. A son of Pennsylvania did the same tonight.

But yes, more battles to be fought.

1,294 posted on 01/03/2012 8:44:01 PM PST by Colonel_Flagg (Why, yes. I AM in a bad mood.)
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To: Palladin
Wishful thinking is never an appropriate substitute for reasoned analysis.
1,295 posted on 01/03/2012 8:44:01 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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To: magritte

Actually, it turned out to be a beautiful night. Paul got the overwhelming Dem crossover vote and finished third. That’s as good as it’s going to get for him. He’s finished.


1,296 posted on 01/03/2012 8:44:01 PM PST by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard (Some men just want to watch the world burn.)
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To: CainConservative

125 lead for Santorum now!


1,297 posted on 01/03/2012 8:44:21 PM PST by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: okie01
Actually it all works in Romneys favor because states with lots of delegates like NY, Ca, Ma, Mi etc all have their primaries after April 1 with winner takes all delegates in most of those states. Romney needs to be knocked out or TKO'd because if it goes the distance he is likely to win a split decision.

The good news is that Newt paid high homage to Rick Santorum tonight in his speech and gave me, at least, the impression that he is taking the gloves off and going after Romney to his or Santorums benefit.

1,298 posted on 01/03/2012 8:44:31 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: Yankee
There was a guy on one thread promulgating the theory that in order to be “natural born” you had to be a direct descendent of one of the people alive when the Constitution was ratified.

Well, I have ancestors who fought in the American Revolution, but that's not what makes me a Natural Born Citizen. I was born on US soil to two American citizen parents. That's what makes me NBC.

1,299 posted on 01/03/2012 8:44:38 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: DCBryan1
No cookie, Bryan, but how about an adult beverage?

Cheers!


1,300 posted on 01/03/2012 8:44:38 PM PST by Old Sarge (RIP FReeper Skyraider (1930-2011) - You Are Missed)
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