Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-50 ... 1,351-1,4001,401-1,4501,451-1,500 ... 2,101-2,136 next last
To: CainConservative

Stop that. Perry is not going to drop out


1,401 posted on 01/03/2012 8:57:51 PM PST by make no mistake
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1360 | View Replies]

To: Slings and Arrows

I can’t imagine Ron Paul will go anywhere.
I still think that Santorum’s pulling ahead is a fluke...sort of like his turn now to be in the lead.

That leaves Newt v. Romney. And there’s a ton of folks who remember that Romney = total RINO flip flop, and will pull for Newt instead.

I won’t vote for Romeny. Ever. For any reason.


1,402 posted on 01/03/2012 8:57:51 PM PST by nicmarlo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1375 | View Replies]

To: teg_76

What in God’s name do you expect her to say?


1,403 posted on 01/03/2012 8:58:25 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1392 | View Replies]

To: Rational Thought

Perry won’t drop out now. He is going to S.C.


1,404 posted on 01/03/2012 8:58:25 PM PST by World'sGoneInsane (We Can Take OUR Country Back--Perry 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1329 | View Replies]

To: nicmarlo

It’s disgusting and amazing. Hypocrites, all.

I reckon that’s why vicious attack ads continue: because they’re effective.


1,405 posted on 01/03/2012 8:58:49 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1350 | View Replies]

To: Prokopton

Wrong. Gingrich was a baptist the majority of his life.
He wins SC going away.


1,406 posted on 01/03/2012 8:59:13 PM PST by NKP_Vet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1384 | View Replies]

To: altura
I’m a Texan and a lot of people here don’t like Texas

The stars at night are big and bright........;^)

1,407 posted on 01/03/2012 8:59:21 PM PST by DeepInTheHeartOfTexas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1331 | View Replies]

To: Cato in PA

Someone without a job, watching their child slowly wither away from hunger does not care too much if Stan and Frank get “married.”


1,408 posted on 01/03/2012 8:59:47 PM PST by Grunthor (Do you worship the State or do you worship the Lord? There is no middle ground.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 223 | View Replies]

To: RitaOK; CainConservative

Everybody wants somebody to drop out.

If CainConservative (by the way where is Cain, CainConservative?) had a nickle for everytime he’s said Perry should drop out, he’d have enough money to support his candidate.

Not sure who that is, he’s changed 5 times. That’s consistency for you.


1,409 posted on 01/03/2012 8:59:47 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1386 | View Replies]

To: jjotto

You may be unaware of this, but in the South the Catholic population is increasing rapidly because of northern transplants and the high birth rate of legal immigrants.

New parishes pop up every month. I have friends from PA and Michigan who have moved south and helped to start new parishes in Florida and SC.

The demographic is really changing down there.


1,410 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:01 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1349 | View Replies]

To: altura

That’s my point. If he continues on and draws 10% of the vote, he could be the reason why Romney wins the nomination, aka, a spoiler. I don’t believe the Governor would want to play such a role.


1,411 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:05 PM PST by Rational Thought
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1376 | View Replies]

To: BenKenobi
Yeah, but Perry and Bachmann are out. So Newt survived beating Perry, but now he’s got to contend with the fact that the Bachmann supporters and Perry supporters will likely go to Santorum now.

Exactly. And since Mitt Romney cannot overcome his 25%-ceiling of support, the only thing that now stands in the way of having a conservative GOP nominee at this point is Newt Gingrich.

1,412 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:06 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1107 | View Replies]

To: mitchell001; BillyBoy; AuH2ORepublican
he (Santorum) cannot communicate the conservative message as well as Newt Gingrich.

I agree, he'd do it better than Gingrich.

1,413 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:06 PM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Cato in PA

Bachman in Iowa has not been a factor in numbers or money for weeks. This makes me think her endorsement means very little to actually no one. Certainly not Romney. Of course, Romney may be kind to her given the interference she ran that so benefited him.


1,414 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:13 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1352 | View Replies]

To: teg_76
You die hard Perry supports are guaranteeing a Romney victory. You lost! You lost!

Wow, you are so right. I mean why do any other states need a Primary? Let's just go with Iowa, and scrap all the other states.

1,415 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:13 PM PST by sockmonkey (He's not perfect, but Perry is no wussy boy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1191 | View Replies]

To: greeneyes

It will be interesting to see the gender breakdown in Iowa for Gingrich. With his 13% finish in Iowa, he did not get a whole lot of votes. And if one assumes there is a 50-50 split
of male-female votes, then he got 6.5 % women voters. Not good.


1,416 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:13 PM PST by tennmountainman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1389 | View Replies]

To: nicmarlo

4 percent left, Santorum still up by a hundred.

I’m told Dubuque is what’s left. Still wayy to close to call.


1,417 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:49 PM PST by BenKenobi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1402 | View Replies]

To: RitaOK

“Newt is going to New Hampshire. Rick Perry is going to SC in the morning.”

Exactly. He will arrive in Aiken, S.C. early Wed. Perry doesn’t like to lose an election -— and he never has lost one.


1,418 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:49 PM PST by varina davis (We grow too soon old and too late smart -- Pennsylvania Dutch adage)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1386 | View Replies]

To: gov_bean_ counter
Major take away from tonight is that Romney is STILL AND OFFICIALLY stuck at around 25%.

And this is as good as he's played in every presidential contest he's been a part of. Romney simply does not connect with the majority of center-right voters. Never has - never will.

Too bad he can't see it, and will persevere until someone royally creams him over several primary votes.

1,419 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:49 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1284 | View Replies]

To: nicmarlo

Nor I. As for the eventual winner...I’m not that good a fortuneteller.


1,420 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:49 PM PST by Slings and Arrows (You can't have Ingsoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1402 | View Replies]

To: make no mistake

“Perry is not going to drop out”

Why?


1,421 posted on 01/03/2012 9:00:58 PM PST by Grunthor (Do you worship the State or do you worship the Lord? There is no middle ground.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1401 | View Replies]

To: Old Sarge
We got us another one, gang!
The air is thick with flying prey!

As we say down south, "Dumb fish are everywhere ya'll! Shootin' 'em is easier than kissing your little sister!"

1,422 posted on 01/03/2012 9:01:01 PM PST by DCBryan1 ("Forget the Lawyers! FIRST YOU MUST kill the journalists!" - Die Ritter, die sagen, "nee"!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1370 | View Replies]

To: Hoodat

So by you logic, NO ONE can win the nomination. Since none of the republican candidates are polling 100%? Obama, never got above 50% of the dems voters in the primary. Did that mean he didn’t get most of them in the general? Sure he did.

Right now, the republican candidates are splitting votes. Happens when you have a large, diverse and strong group of candidates. Eventually someone will emerge and get the nomination. Then the party gets behind whoever that may be. And yes, there will always be plenty who say if my “candidate x” doesn’t get the nomination, I am sitting out the general. Sure some may do that, but most end up falling in line.

IN the end, it comes down to 6-7 states that will tip the presidency. And about 5-6% of those truly in the middle.


1,423 posted on 01/03/2012 9:01:01 PM PST by gswilder
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1381 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

Bigbob, Sandy was my man! So sorry, that he had that failing. Newt got beat on tv ads- he ran out of debates— But, in SC, I predict, he is going to go after Romney in debate and eviscerate him.

When Newt has a chance to go face to face- and people listen to frank discussion— that’s when they come to his side.


1,424 posted on 01/03/2012 9:01:04 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1336 | View Replies]

To: onyx
I reckon that’s why vicious attack ads continue: because they’re effective.

pathetic. As you said, so much for 'informed' voter. An informed person is not moved by false (half true) ads, especially when many of these kinds of ads take things out of context. Where are these people's brains??? On ice?

1,425 posted on 01/03/2012 9:01:41 PM PST by nicmarlo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1405 | View Replies]

To: onyx

I’ll be the contrarian here. II think negative ads do a public service. Who will inform the public of the foibles of Obama? The press? Obama? the DNC? No, it will be the nominee of the Republican Party and his or her supporters. God bless freedom and America.


1,426 posted on 01/03/2012 9:01:55 PM PST by jwalsh07
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1405 | View Replies]

To: jwalsh07

Your post is as we used to say “right on”. It struck a chord with me as I was in the army on temporary duty at West Point when Woodstock was happening. Someone said there was a big concert near there. A group of us went on Sunday. The garbage they left would make the occupiers proud. Ben 1st/502


1,427 posted on 01/03/2012 9:02:02 PM PST by Income tax and Freedom. Huh?
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 457 | View Replies]

To: altura

Perry is trying to split the conservative vote so Mitt can win. He is a stalking horse for Mitt.


1,428 posted on 01/03/2012 9:02:02 PM PST by Tramonto (Draft Palin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1409 | View Replies]

To: jwalsh07
Newt is gonna go wherever Mitt goes with blood in his eyes and the nomination be damned. Thats my prediction.

From your keyboard to God's ears. For a long time we've needed someone high-profile to knee-cap Mittens and his slime-machine. If that turns out to be Newt, I would love it.
1,429 posted on 01/03/2012 9:02:02 PM PST by Antoninus (Defeat Romney--Defeat Obama.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1387 | View Replies]

To: DeepInTheHeartOfTexas

The water here, makes Pearl beer clap clap clap clap FIRST in the heart of Texas!


1,430 posted on 01/03/2012 9:02:02 PM PST by txhurl (Perry/Pence 2012 OR Perry/Ryan 2012 or even better Perry/Abbott 2012!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1407 | View Replies]

To: LdSentinal

I respectively disagree.

Newt and the big newspaper in NH that endorsed him need to go all in to fight Willard to the death (and lower his margin of victory there in NH, at least.)


1,431 posted on 01/03/2012 9:02:10 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1400 | View Replies]

To: novemberslady

All this means that there is no one among the contenders who generate enthusiasm and trust


1,432 posted on 01/03/2012 9:02:20 PM PST by LeonAW
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 715 | View Replies]

To: Rational Thought

Well, then try to get Santorum and Ron Paul to drop out.

Perry is by far the better candidate and it is way early to count him out after one caucus.

Rick Perry would never hurt the country but the best way for him to help the country is to stay in and win.


1,433 posted on 01/03/2012 9:02:33 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1411 | View Replies]

To: Parley Baer
I read where a lot of people from Massachusetts are coming to New Hampshire to help out Romney. Liberals sticking together.

Wouldn't surprise me at all.

Newt was endorsed by the conservative newspaper, the Manchester Union Leader, so he likely thinks he owes them time and appearances in NH, but were I Newt, I would go to South Carolina and Florida with my time and money for ads.

1,434 posted on 01/03/2012 9:03:12 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1351 | View Replies]

To: Grunthor

He’s still close off of Newt. If he can beat Newt in South Carolina, then it will be Perry/Santorum going into Florida.

He has a chance to knock Newt off.

Bachmann, on the other hand.


1,435 posted on 01/03/2012 9:03:12 PM PST by BenKenobi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1421 | View Replies]

To: NKP_Vet
Dingbat Bachmann on stage now grinning, acting like she won.

I was waiting for her to proclaim that it was just a flesh wound.

1,436 posted on 01/03/2012 9:03:25 PM PST by dirtboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1333 | View Replies]

To: BenKenobi

From Twitter;

@JimPethokoukis

BREAKING: Romney to request recounts of all ballots in Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Volusia counties


1,437 posted on 01/03/2012 9:03:38 PM PST by Rational Thought
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1417 | View Replies]

To: World'sGoneInsane

Perry looks happy and energized right now. I hope he stays in. He is very entertaining.


1,438 posted on 01/03/2012 9:03:38 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1404 | View Replies]

To: Hoodat

And as long as we have so many dullards hating on Newt, who is the only candidate running close to Newt across the country, we will continue to have Mitt squeak out wins with a split conservative vote.


1,439 posted on 01/03/2012 9:03:40 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. | FR Class of '98 |)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1412 | View Replies]

To: Tramonto

Two idiocies in one post.

Your statement and your tagline.


1,440 posted on 01/03/2012 9:03:59 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1428 | View Replies]

To: Tramonto

I disagree. I think that Perry is genuinely in it because he wants to win.

Now if you want a stalking horse - well, stalking harpy - look no farther than Michele Bachmann. I don’t know what it will take to bring her campaign to a close.


1,441 posted on 01/03/2012 9:03:59 PM PST by Cato in PA (Hope and pray for the Santorum surge!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1428 | View Replies]

To: NKP_Vet
Wrong. Gingrich was a baptist the majority of his life. He wins SC going away.

A serial adulterer as a Baptist who is now a Catholic, riding the momentum of being 4th in IA and 4th in NH. I wouldn't be too confident of SC. Huckabee got 30% in SC, only 3 points behind McCain.

1,442 posted on 01/03/2012 9:04:26 PM PST by Prokopton
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1406 | View Replies]

To: free me

You can call it shilling, I call it stating my opinion about what I think will happen. I never said “vote for Romney”. Some are saying they think Perry, or Newt or Paul will win. Lets ban all of them. Or are we becoming DU?


1,443 posted on 01/03/2012 9:04:26 PM PST by gswilder
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1397 | View Replies]

Santorum is a nice guy but listening to his speak is as exciting as watching paint dry. He wouldn’t win the election if he is the nominee.


1,444 posted on 01/03/2012 9:04:47 PM PST by Leto (Damn shame Palin didn't run, The Presidency was Her's for the taking)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1425 | View Replies]

To: altura

Well, the people of Iowa don’t see it and Santorum is eating into Perry’s support.

Whatever happens from here on, Santorum’s won himself a ticket to Florida. So he’ll be going up against whomever the other ‘not Romney, not Paul’.

Perry and Newt are fighting it out for the other slot.


1,445 posted on 01/03/2012 9:05:10 PM PST by BenKenobi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1433 | View Replies]

To: Palladin

Both Newt and Perry scored less than Fred Thompson in ‘08. IIRC Fred stayed in for SC and then hung it up. Mitt currently is 0.6% below his ‘08 take.


1,446 posted on 01/03/2012 9:05:22 PM PST by JohnBovenmyer (Obama been Liberal. Hope Change!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1283 | View Replies]

To: Grunthor
We are at 11% unemployment, meaning we are at 89% employment.

Gay marriage is still an issue.

(BTW, while I'm talking to you, congrats on the new arrival. Getting any sleep yet?)

Cheers!

1,447 posted on 01/03/2012 9:05:33 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1408 | View Replies]

To: Dysart
Brett B attempting to tally votes/margins but having trouble mastering the intricacies of a hand-held calculator...threw it to break.

I've been reading similar comments on the thread. Simply pathetic. You'd think they'd have someone off-screen keeping the numbers, to feed them quickly to the on-screen commentators.

I'm not watching Fox myself. I prefer to monitor the live FR threads and catch the live coverage on talk radio.

1,448 posted on 01/03/2012 9:05:46 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1293 | View Replies]

To: teg_76

Just like Rick Perry...a dingbat.


1,449 posted on 01/03/2012 9:05:46 PM PST by Mozilla
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1392 | View Replies]

To: BenKenobi

Also Story County. Both look like Romney wins.


1,450 posted on 01/03/2012 9:06:25 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1417 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-50 ... 1,351-1,4001,401-1,4501,451-1,500 ... 2,101-2,136 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson