Skip to comments.2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
“Perry is not going to drop out”
As we say down south, "Dumb fish are everywhere ya'll! Shootin' 'em is easier than kissing your little sister!"
So by you logic, NO ONE can win the nomination. Since none of the republican candidates are polling 100%? Obama, never got above 50% of the dems voters in the primary. Did that mean he didn’t get most of them in the general? Sure he did.
Right now, the republican candidates are splitting votes. Happens when you have a large, diverse and strong group of candidates. Eventually someone will emerge and get the nomination. Then the party gets behind whoever that may be. And yes, there will always be plenty who say if my “candidate x” doesn’t get the nomination, I am sitting out the general. Sure some may do that, but most end up falling in line.
IN the end, it comes down to 6-7 states that will tip the presidency. And about 5-6% of those truly in the middle.
Bigbob, Sandy was my man! So sorry, that he had that failing. Newt got beat on tv ads- he ran out of debates— But, in SC, I predict, he is going to go after Romney in debate and eviscerate him.
When Newt has a chance to go face to face- and people listen to frank discussion— that’s when they come to his side.
pathetic. As you said, so much for 'informed' voter. An informed person is not moved by false (half true) ads, especially when many of these kinds of ads take things out of context. Where are these people's brains??? On ice?
I’ll be the contrarian here. II think negative ads do a public service. Who will inform the public of the foibles of Obama? The press? Obama? the DNC? No, it will be the nominee of the Republican Party and his or her supporters. God bless freedom and America.
Your post is as we used to say “right on”. It struck a chord with me as I was in the army on temporary duty at West Point when Woodstock was happening. Someone said there was a big concert near there. A group of us went on Sunday. The garbage they left would make the occupiers proud. Ben 1st/502
Perry is trying to split the conservative vote so Mitt can win. He is a stalking horse for Mitt.
The water here, makes Pearl beer clap clap clap clap FIRST in the heart of Texas!
I respectively disagree.
Newt and the big newspaper in NH that endorsed him need to go all in to fight Willard to the death (and lower his margin of victory there in NH, at least.)
All this means that there is no one among the contenders who generate enthusiasm and trust
Well, then try to get Santorum and Ron Paul to drop out.
Perry is by far the better candidate and it is way early to count him out after one caucus.
Rick Perry would never hurt the country but the best way for him to help the country is to stay in and win.
Wouldn't surprise me at all.
Newt was endorsed by the conservative newspaper, the Manchester Union Leader, so he likely thinks he owes them time and appearances in NH, but were I Newt, I would go to South Carolina and Florida with my time and money for ads.
He’s still close off of Newt. If he can beat Newt in South Carolina, then it will be Perry/Santorum going into Florida.
He has a chance to knock Newt off.
Bachmann, on the other hand.
I was waiting for her to proclaim that it was just a flesh wound.
BREAKING: Romney to request recounts of all ballots in Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Volusia counties
Perry looks happy and energized right now. I hope he stays in. He is very entertaining.
And as long as we have so many dullards hating on Newt, who is the only candidate running close to Newt across the country, we will continue to have Mitt squeak out wins with a split conservative vote.
Two idiocies in one post.
Your statement and your tagline.