Skip to comments.2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
Stop that. Perry is not going to drop out
I can’t imagine Ron Paul will go anywhere.
I still think that Santorum’s pulling ahead is a fluke...sort of like his turn now to be in the lead.
That leaves Newt v. Romney. And there’s a ton of folks who remember that Romney = total RINO flip flop, and will pull for Newt instead.
I won’t vote for Romeny. Ever. For any reason.
What in God’s name do you expect her to say?
Perry won’t drop out now. He is going to S.C.
It’s disgusting and amazing. Hypocrites, all.
I reckon that’s why vicious attack ads continue: because they’re effective.
Wrong. Gingrich was a baptist the majority of his life.
He wins SC going away.
The stars at night are big and bright........;^)
Someone without a job, watching their child slowly wither away from hunger does not care too much if Stan and Frank get “married.”
Everybody wants somebody to drop out.
If CainConservative (by the way where is Cain, CainConservative?) had a nickle for everytime he’s said Perry should drop out, he’d have enough money to support his candidate.
Not sure who that is, he’s changed 5 times. That’s consistency for you.
You may be unaware of this, but in the South the Catholic population is increasing rapidly because of northern transplants and the high birth rate of legal immigrants.
New parishes pop up every month. I have friends from PA and Michigan who have moved south and helped to start new parishes in Florida and SC.
The demographic is really changing down there.
That’s my point. If he continues on and draws 10% of the vote, he could be the reason why Romney wins the nomination, aka, a spoiler. I don’t believe the Governor would want to play such a role.
Exactly. And since Mitt Romney cannot overcome his 25%-ceiling of support, the only thing that now stands in the way of having a conservative GOP nominee at this point is Newt Gingrich.
I agree, he'd do it better than Gingrich.
Bachman in Iowa has not been a factor in numbers or money for weeks. This makes me think her endorsement means very little to actually no one. Certainly not Romney. Of course, Romney may be kind to her given the interference she ran that so benefited him.
Wow, you are so right. I mean why do any other states need a Primary? Let's just go with Iowa, and scrap all the other states.
It will be interesting to see the gender breakdown in Iowa for Gingrich. With his 13% finish in Iowa, he did not get a whole lot of votes. And if one assumes there is a 50-50 split
of male-female votes, then he got 6.5 % women voters. Not good.
4 percent left, Santorum still up by a hundred.
I’m told Dubuque is what’s left. Still wayy to close to call.
“Newt is going to New Hampshire. Rick Perry is going to SC in the morning.”
Exactly. He will arrive in Aiken, S.C. early Wed. Perry doesn’t like to lose an election -— and he never has lost one.
And this is as good as he's played in every presidential contest he's been a part of. Romney simply does not connect with the majority of center-right voters. Never has - never will.
Too bad he can't see it, and will persevere until someone royally creams him over several primary votes.
Nor I. As for the eventual winner...I’m not that good a fortuneteller.
“Perry is not going to drop out”
As we say down south, "Dumb fish are everywhere ya'll! Shootin' 'em is easier than kissing your little sister!"
So by you logic, NO ONE can win the nomination. Since none of the republican candidates are polling 100%? Obama, never got above 50% of the dems voters in the primary. Did that mean he didn’t get most of them in the general? Sure he did.
Right now, the republican candidates are splitting votes. Happens when you have a large, diverse and strong group of candidates. Eventually someone will emerge and get the nomination. Then the party gets behind whoever that may be. And yes, there will always be plenty who say if my “candidate x” doesn’t get the nomination, I am sitting out the general. Sure some may do that, but most end up falling in line.
IN the end, it comes down to 6-7 states that will tip the presidency. And about 5-6% of those truly in the middle.
Bigbob, Sandy was my man! So sorry, that he had that failing. Newt got beat on tv ads- he ran out of debates— But, in SC, I predict, he is going to go after Romney in debate and eviscerate him.
When Newt has a chance to go face to face- and people listen to frank discussion— that’s when they come to his side.
pathetic. As you said, so much for 'informed' voter. An informed person is not moved by false (half true) ads, especially when many of these kinds of ads take things out of context. Where are these people's brains??? On ice?
I’ll be the contrarian here. II think negative ads do a public service. Who will inform the public of the foibles of Obama? The press? Obama? the DNC? No, it will be the nominee of the Republican Party and his or her supporters. God bless freedom and America.
Your post is as we used to say “right on”. It struck a chord with me as I was in the army on temporary duty at West Point when Woodstock was happening. Someone said there was a big concert near there. A group of us went on Sunday. The garbage they left would make the occupiers proud. Ben 1st/502
Perry is trying to split the conservative vote so Mitt can win. He is a stalking horse for Mitt.
The water here, makes Pearl beer clap clap clap clap FIRST in the heart of Texas!
I respectively disagree.
Newt and the big newspaper in NH that endorsed him need to go all in to fight Willard to the death (and lower his margin of victory there in NH, at least.)
All this means that there is no one among the contenders who generate enthusiasm and trust
Well, then try to get Santorum and Ron Paul to drop out.
Perry is by far the better candidate and it is way early to count him out after one caucus.
Rick Perry would never hurt the country but the best way for him to help the country is to stay in and win.
Wouldn't surprise me at all.
Newt was endorsed by the conservative newspaper, the Manchester Union Leader, so he likely thinks he owes them time and appearances in NH, but were I Newt, I would go to South Carolina and Florida with my time and money for ads.
He’s still close off of Newt. If he can beat Newt in South Carolina, then it will be Perry/Santorum going into Florida.
He has a chance to knock Newt off.
Bachmann, on the other hand.
I was waiting for her to proclaim that it was just a flesh wound.
BREAKING: Romney to request recounts of all ballots in Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Volusia counties
Perry looks happy and energized right now. I hope he stays in. He is very entertaining.
And as long as we have so many dullards hating on Newt, who is the only candidate running close to Newt across the country, we will continue to have Mitt squeak out wins with a split conservative vote.
Two idiocies in one post.
Your statement and your tagline.
I disagree. I think that Perry is genuinely in it because he wants to win.
Now if you want a stalking horse - well, stalking harpy - look no farther than Michele Bachmann. I don’t know what it will take to bring her campaign to a close.
A serial adulterer as a Baptist who is now a Catholic, riding the momentum of being 4th in IA and 4th in NH. I wouldn't be too confident of SC. Huckabee got 30% in SC, only 3 points behind McCain.
You can call it shilling, I call it stating my opinion about what I think will happen. I never said “vote for Romney”. Some are saying they think Perry, or Newt or Paul will win. Lets ban all of them. Or are we becoming DU?
Santorum is a nice guy but listening to his speak is as exciting as watching paint dry. He wouldn’t win the election if he is the nominee.
Well, the people of Iowa don’t see it and Santorum is eating into Perry’s support.
Whatever happens from here on, Santorum’s won himself a ticket to Florida. So he’ll be going up against whomever the other ‘not Romney, not Paul’.
Perry and Newt are fighting it out for the other slot.
Both Newt and Perry scored less than Fred Thompson in ‘08. IIRC Fred stayed in for SC and then hung it up. Mitt currently is 0.6% below his ‘08 take.
Gay marriage is still an issue.
(BTW, while I'm talking to you, congrats on the new arrival. Getting any sleep yet?)
I've been reading similar comments on the thread. Simply pathetic. You'd think they'd have someone off-screen keeping the numbers, to feed them quickly to the on-screen commentators.
I'm not watching Fox myself. I prefer to monitor the live FR threads and catch the live coverage on talk radio.
Just like Rick Perry...a dingbat.
Also Story County. Both look like Romney wins.