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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: free me
So if you don’t like Romney, fine. But don’t support him, and take 4 more years of Obama. It’s not who we want. It’s only who we can choose from.

With all due respect, shove it.

I am done voting for liberals. Both Romney and Obama are disasters for conservatives. If you want to vote for them, be my guest. But I will not. Understand?
1,451 posted on 01/03/2012 9:06:50 PM PST by Antoninus (Defeat Romney--Defeat Obama.)
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To: CainConservative
You've been wanting Perry to drop out since August 13...LOL.

Tonight is one step in the process. He is going to S.C.

1,452 posted on 01/03/2012 9:06:56 PM PST by World'sGoneInsane (We Can Take OUR Country Back--Perry 2012)
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To: Proud2BeRight
"Romney has to be running scared now. Conservatism wiped him up. Conservatives won 53+% of the raw total and when you throw out the meaningless Paul stink kook vote, conservatism 70+ percent of the real vote."

.I'm not so sure. The nominating process is still driven by pluralities, not absolute majorities, in two important senses. First, at the level of bound delegates, there are plenty of winner-take-all states(whether statewide or by district) and even the proportional states are still going to award disproportionately more delegates to the plurality winner. Second, many primaries and (especially) caucuses do not elect and bind delegates; instead, they either elect delegates to subsequent county and state conventions, or elect delegates in whole or in part who are pledged but not bound. All these processes will result in delegates going to the national convention who will support whoever has the most pledged delegates, even if it is less than a majority.

"Conservatism" really only has a few more contests to pick a contender and see the rest drop out, or Romney will take it easily. I am less convinced than the average FReeper that Romney can't win pluralities even if it is down to a three-way race (him, Paul, and survivor among Santorum, Perry and Gingrich), but it will definitely stay interesting for quite a while.
1,453 posted on 01/03/2012 9:06:56 PM PST by only1percent
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To: nicmarlo

P.S. Objectively, there’s no rational reason for Paul - he’s not going to get the nod, but he made a strong showing and is in a prime position to be a spoiler. (Of course, rational is not a word I often use in reference to Ron Paul.)


1,454 posted on 01/03/2012 9:07:03 PM PST by Slings and Arrows (You can't have Ingsoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: WhistlingPastTheGraveyard
Paul got the overwhelming Dem crossover vote and finished third. That’s as good as it’s going to get for him. He’s finished.

I sure as hell hope so. Time to thin the herd, starting with the sick one.

1,455 posted on 01/03/2012 9:07:14 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Antoninus

Whats the current vote total?


1,456 posted on 01/03/2012 9:07:37 PM PST by gswilder
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To: altura

Perry needs to get out now. He is only helping Romney at this point.


1,457 posted on 01/03/2012 9:07:46 PM PST by Tramonto (Draft Palin)
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To: Leto

With the way things are, I don’t think he has to be exciting. He just has to be believable.


1,458 posted on 01/03/2012 9:08:41 PM PST by Suz in AZ
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To: Rational Thought

You owe me a keyboard and a monitor,LOL


1,459 posted on 01/03/2012 9:09:09 PM PST by DeepInTheHeartOfTexas
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To: Grunthor

Do you know someone like that?


1,460 posted on 01/03/2012 9:09:09 PM PST by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: gswilder

Irrelevant now. Projections on the delegates: (6) Santorum (6) Romney (4) Paul (1) Gingrich (1) Perry

PERRY DROPPING OUT!!! WOW!


1,461 posted on 01/03/2012 9:09:15 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: gswilder

They are waiting for us all to go to bed so they can slide a Romney win under the door.


1,462 posted on 01/03/2012 9:09:15 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. | FR Class of '98 |)
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To: Mozilla

Perry out .


1,463 posted on 01/03/2012 9:09:22 PM PST by Dagnabitt
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To: gswilder

Screw Romney! Screw Obama!

Iowa’s going RED in 2012 but tonight it’s PURPLE for you know who..

Ricky!!!

I see purple EVERYWHERE: http://iowacaucus.com/results/


1,464 posted on 01/03/2012 9:09:47 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Bolton, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: jpsb

Mitt is telling the truth from a legal standpoint, IIRC, but I don’t trust people to follow the law in such situations, especially Mitt.


1,465 posted on 01/03/2012 9:09:50 PM PST by PghBaldy (War Powers Res: http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp)
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To: Parley Baer

Perry is reassigning the campaign it sounds like. I want Romney and Obama to go down in flames.


1,466 posted on 01/03/2012 9:10:04 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: gswilder
Ask the owner. It's printed real clear on the main forum page.

ObamaCare = RomneyCare = CommieCare. NO Romney! NO WAY!!

1,467 posted on 01/03/2012 9:10:04 PM PST by free me (heartless)
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To: tennmountainman

You will be voting for Newt unless you’re gonna be all about Romney. Your obsessive barking against Newt in Iowa is starting to say more about you than Newt. LOL! Get a grip, ole boy. Most pols already know the race begins in South Carolina.

I believe Rick Perry is preparing to drop out, given his speech right now.


1,468 posted on 01/03/2012 9:10:10 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: Admin Moderator; Pinkbell

Holy cats! I was IBTZ and didn’t even know it!


1,469 posted on 01/03/2012 9:10:10 PM PST by RobinOfKingston (The instinct toward liberalism is located in the part of the brain called the rectal lobe.)
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To: ez

Theres no reason why these places can’t have their votes counted three hours after they took place. They are figuring out how to get Romney out front.


1,470 posted on 01/03/2012 9:10:25 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. | FR Class of '98 |)
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To: Deo volente; All

SERIOUSLY FOLKS...

Understand just how vehement the media HATRED is going to be toward Santorum in the coming days.

Here are a few tweets, from just the LAST FEW MINUTES:

Ben Gilbert-And *now* you understand why it’s so funny when actual headlines say “Santorum surging from behind”
-Ben is a Brooklyn-based Senior Reporter at Joystiq, where he focuses on features, interviews, and news reporting.)

Rob Delaney- SANTORUM WINS! (designation of candidate most swollen with hate)
-L.A. Comedian, TV Personality

WONKETTE(liberal Blog) -Santorum’s real identity is Richey Rich!

Baseball Writer and ESPN Columnist - Meanwhile, somewhere in Washington the President is cackling — a Libertarian, a Mormon flip-flopper, and a Santorum.

(For those of you who don’t know, the liberal definition of a “Santorum” is the frothing mixture of semen, crap, and lube that leaks out of a rectum after bareback gay sex. This term was coined 4 years ago by DAILY KOS, and picked up with glee by MSNBC

Rob Kutner, Writer for Conan O’Brian - I’m just happy to hear the phrase, “Santorum in a Three-Way.”

Julie Fleischer (Ugly Chick on CBS ‘The Big Bang Theory’) - Cable news working to unscrew the horns on Santorum so they can cover him seriously going forward.

Aaron Mehta (Reporter for iWatch, and the SOROS-FUNDED “Center For Public Integrity” - I also admit to laughing at the thought of innocent voters going “oh, I’ll google this Santorum fellow and find out what he’s about!”

Numerous ‘Black” Tweeters - Santorum tells Iowans: ‘I don’t want to make black people’s lives better’ zite.to/u3fdJa (racist douche bag!)

The Borowitz Report (Hate-filled liberal Blog) - Santorum says he just got a call from Obama: “He stopped laughing long enough to say congratulations.”

XXtremity (Who knows?) - Grape, strawberry, lime, cherry, or watermelon? Which is your favorite flavor of Santorum?

There are MANY, MANY more, mostly from CELEBS and Media people. Get ready for the HATE ORGY, folks....


1,471 posted on 01/03/2012 9:10:50 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: gswilder; Admin Moderator
Whats the current vote total?

I can get that info tommorrow> I want the current ZOT total. I have 3 IBTZs.....maybe a record since the Guliani purge era ;)

1,472 posted on 01/03/2012 9:10:50 PM PST by DCBryan1 ("Forget the Lawyers! FIRST YOU MUST kill the journalists!" - Die Ritter, die sagen, "nee"!)
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To: only1percent

Well, I’m very encouraged by the results. A Romney and Paul loss to Santorum here, makes SC the last stand for Perry and Newt.

That makes Florida a four way race. Could Romney win there? Sure. But it’s much more interesting race now with Santorum in it and the two heavyweights duking it out.

You’ve got an upset in the first round of the tournament, but it’s double knockout, and the two favourites are going to go at it.


1,473 posted on 01/03/2012 9:10:50 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Grunthor

“Perry is not going to drop out”
You ask why...because he is going to win, that’s why.


1,474 posted on 01/03/2012 9:11:03 PM PST by make no mistake
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To: Mozilla

I just heard the Perry tail end. Is he cutting out? I bet he will. Oops.


1,475 posted on 01/03/2012 9:11:08 PM PST by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: bigbob

I don’t know if Perry will have a “reasonable” number of votes to continue, but one thing is certain- he will have enough money to continue his fight as long as he wants to. He will be one of the last four or three standing.


1,476 posted on 01/03/2012 9:11:41 PM PST by matthew fuller ("If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill)
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To: Tramonto

I don’t think Perry should withdraw- he can give SC a try. But, on the other hand, if he’s in single digits, and that means the difference between a conservative and Romney winning, then I think he (or any other similarliy situated conservative), should bow out for the sake of conservatism.


1,477 posted on 01/03/2012 9:11:48 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: ez

A guy is driving votes to the HQ.. the fix is in.


1,478 posted on 01/03/2012 9:12:16 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. | FR Class of '98 |)
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To: ez

Really, Perry out? Too bad. I was a Perry supporter. Wish he had gotten in sooner. Maybe he could have avoided some of the early gaffs which sunk his campaign.


1,479 posted on 01/03/2012 9:12:32 PM PST by gswilder
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To: matthew fuller

Perry is presidential. I like him.


1,480 posted on 01/03/2012 9:12:48 PM PST by malos (Call Me Inpressed)
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To: gswilder
So it’s OK to talk up Newt who really isn’t conservative?

Newt may be a flawed conservative, but he is a conservative. Romney, on the other hand, is a liberal progressive with an R behind his name. Jim Rob owns this domain, and it's his right to ban any and all pro-liberal/progressive postings.

I think Jim Rob has been more than fair with regards to Romney. He didn't abolish pro-Romney posts here, until about six months ago, if I recall correctly. The Romney supporters had their say about him for years and years.

1,481 posted on 01/03/2012 9:13:20 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: JDW11235

I had a clear feed on cnn.com but Governor Perry said he is going back to Texas to reassess his campaign and see if he should go forward or not.


1,482 posted on 01/03/2012 9:13:24 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: nicmarlo

P.P.S. For Paul to go anywhere, I mean.


1,483 posted on 01/03/2012 9:13:24 PM PST by Slings and Arrows (You can't have Ingsoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: parksstp

What’s going on? Is Perry really out?

...wow. If this is true, my condolences to his supporters.


1,484 posted on 01/03/2012 9:13:39 PM PST by Cato in PA (Hope and pray for the Santorum surge!)
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To: make no mistake
Stop that. Perry is not going to drop out

Did you hear his speach? He's out.

1,485 posted on 01/03/2012 9:13:46 PM PST by Prokopton
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To: Tramonto
Perry is trying to split the conservative vote so Mitt can win. He is a stalking horse for Mitt.

ROFL...That's more like horse manure.

1,486 posted on 01/03/2012 9:13:46 PM PST by World'sGoneInsane (We Can Take OUR Country Back--Perry 2012)
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To: JDW11235

Yep. He said he is going home to Texas to see if there is a path forward for him. He was very subdued reading and choking up over a Marine’s letter written to him. He is out, I am sure. Money people I am sure, more of showing than the 10%. I love Rick Perry.


1,487 posted on 01/03/2012 9:13:51 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: Income tax and Freedom. Huh?

Go Army! :-} Happy New Year grunt.


1,488 posted on 01/03/2012 9:13:56 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: Antoninus; gswilder

I was quoting “gswilder” and pointing out his shilling for romney.


1,489 posted on 01/03/2012 9:14:38 PM PST by free me (heartless)
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To: Mozilla

Wow, that’s big news for Rick and Newt.


1,490 posted on 01/03/2012 9:14:49 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Engraved-on-His-hands

I just heard on the radio that whether Santorum wins, or loses in Iowa, he has STUNNED the political world, and I agree. Plus, this will help Santorum raise even MORE $$.


1,491 posted on 01/03/2012 9:15:00 PM PST by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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To: Windflier

Trust me they are trying to figure out how to make it look normal that Romney is winning the Western districts.


1,492 posted on 01/03/2012 9:15:06 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. | FR Class of '98 |)
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To: Mozilla

So who will Perry endorse, sounds like he’s out?


1,493 posted on 01/03/2012 9:15:06 PM PST by topfile
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To: VinL

Governor Perry is going back to Texas to consider his next steps... to see if he thinks there’s a pathway forward.

He’s going to pray about it, too.


1,494 posted on 01/03/2012 9:15:14 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: Prokopton

I heard every word, and he said he was going to pray over it.

A concept the Fox News commentators seem not to understand...you?


1,495 posted on 01/03/2012 9:15:14 PM PST by bigbob
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To: DeepInTheHeartOfTexas
According to FoxNews, we are waiting on some guy in a truck out in Iowa to decide the race. He is apparently delivering the votes to the processing center in Ames County. I can just picture some old farmer in bib overalls listening to George Jones on the truck radio, taking his sweet old time.

With 97% in, only 37 votes separate Santorum from Romney.

1,496 posted on 01/03/2012 9:15:31 PM PST by SamAdams76 (I am 34 days away from outliving Marty Feldman)
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To: tcrlaf

The fags hate Rick Santorum. But they are only 2% of the population, so who cares?

They’re too busy with their filthy sexual practices to go out and vote anyway.


1,497 posted on 01/03/2012 9:16:08 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: World'sGoneInsane

Yea, Perry is only running to try and help Mitt out? Not.

Sounds like he is “reassessing”. which probably means the end. Too bad. I really liked Perry and thought he had a chance to beat Obama, until all the gaffs. Bachman and Huntsman probably next to go.


1,498 posted on 01/03/2012 9:16:24 PM PST by gswilder
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To: Cato in PA

He said he’s going back to TX.

Final results in IA now won’t matter. Santorum gets a share of delegates.


1,499 posted on 01/03/2012 9:16:39 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: gswilder
http://news.yahoo.com/?fr=

Refreshes realtime. By the way, I agree with your comments on possibilities. History repeats - remember McCain in ‘O8 - . Not much hope that most on FR will get solidly behind any candidate right now - no candidates are stellar. Way too early to say what will happen at this point.

1,500 posted on 01/03/2012 9:16:48 PM PST by Sleeping Freeper
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