Skip to comments.2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
The establishmedia hate machine will be going full blast after an unashamed Christian Conservative. Let the war begin.
Pray for America
Rubio’s parents were refugees from Cuba and WERE NOT U.S. Citizens at the time of their son’s birth ... Rubio explained this on a radio broadcast... in fact there is even dispute that they were even refugees - most likely illegal aliens ... but never the less ...
FL is about four days after SC- He's going to FL, at least.
They hate the man because he wants to defend the lives of infants in the womb, and uphold traditional marriage.
That’s it, pure and simple.
I came in only for about the last 30 seconds of what he said, but am listening to commentary right now. I’m sure he’ll go back. He has nothing to lose by going back to Texas now, where he can serve out the term he said he would. If he stays in the game, he’ll likely be further embarassed, which could make things worse for his chances the next go around. Heading back to Texas is a clear sign that he’s at least doubting his (nonexistent) chances. I think it’ll end up being Romney, Paul and either Newt or Santorum (depended on who gets more fundraising) come Super Tuesday. I know Huntsman will probably get out soon. I hope it’s sooner, rather than later.
Helluva race tonight.
Apparently, it will be a Romney win, with the remaining 61 precincts outstanding. Probably Mittens will lead by 300.
Michele is probably thinking "Oh goody if he drops out, I'll pick up all his votes."
Umm, Michele -- Not.
Governor Perry is going back to Texas to consider his next steps... to see if he thinks theres a pathway forward.
Hes going to pray about it, too.
I do too. He is the best guy for the job. I hope he goes on - Iowa doesn't pick the eventual winner, they usually pick the eventual loser.
I’m wondering if it really matters who “wins” - it’s going to end up a dead heat with maybe a 100 vote margin, and regardless, Iowa has put santorum onto a national level that he was not at before. Win or lose, he’s the big winner.
Doesn’t matter who gets the most votes, the winner tonight is Santorum.
You sound like a confused individual, who's not sure of their ideological stance.
"People like you"? Do you subscribe to the mission of Free Republic (read it on the main page). If not, then you're not a conservative, and should not have answered 'yes' to the Gallup poll.
ROFLMAO! George Jones is soooooo Kansas/Missouri!
I'll call your George Jones and raise you a Slim Whitman!
Romney is obama lite... nothing more - nor nothing less...
I’m a Perry supporter, not shilling for Romney. Or I hope I still am able to support Perry. But his speech sounded like he is heading out. Too bad. I thought Perry had a great shot. All those early gaffs did him in. The public meme became Perry doesn’t know what is going on outside the walls of TX. Same thing media did to Palin. It’s sad. I know there are a ton of alternate media outlets now, but the MSM still has too much power.
I can only hear the audio from the Fox feed. Thanks for the update.
Big deal, he spent $10-15 million to beat Santorum who likely didn’t spend $150K by 300 votes. He should be very concerned if Conservatives begin dropping out.
Great job Rick!
Pray for America
Rick Santorum 29,210 25%
Mitt Romney 29,173 25%
Ron Paul 25,307 22%
Newt Gingrich 15,722 14%
Rick Perry 12,194 11%
Michele Bachmann 5,934 6%
Herman Cain 57 1%
Even so, being able to claim a win over Romney, however narrow, would truly make this a David vs Goliath moment.
Hey Onyx, I hope Rick will pray on it. He’s a good man- never said one word against him. I will pray on it, as well.
(Oh course, I won’t tell you the content of my prayer) -:)
Too close to tell at this point.
I can get that info tommorrow> I want the current ZOT total. I have 3 IBTZs.....maybe a record since the Guliani purge era ;)
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I asked the same thing. 3 for this thread? I know we had a total of 11 or 12 the other day but that was across threads.
Winner is Santorum by any measure EXCEPT perhaps a few votes.
“Governor Perry is going back to Texas to consider his next steps... to see if he thinks theres a pathway forward.”
Yes, I heard him. Knowing him, I think he will drop out. Earlier, before the numbers came out, he said he was going to S. Carolina. Now, he isn’t.
Nope, the delegate count will matter.
Romney and Santorum will split about 8 delegates a piece, Paul will get about 6, and Gingirch will probably get the other 3.
11:58 p.m. ET
Perry is addressing supporters in West Des Moines, and is reading a letter from a man who backed him. It looks like one of his daughters is beating back tears, and she got a hug from her brother, Griffin.
“This wasn’t my purpose in life but our country is in trouble. It was my duty to serve my country one more time,” Perry says.
Perry drops a bombshell: “With the voters decision, I decided to return to Texas and determine if there is a path forward,” he says.
“With a little reflection...I am going to decide the best path forward. There is a model to take this country forward and it is in the great state of Texas.”
Gawd, you were reading my mind, I just didn’t want to say it!! Someone awesome like Rick with such grace reads the numbers and graciously reconsiders, while Bachmann reminds me of Palin and grinds her reputation into the ground, and my last nerve into the stratisphere! This development actually, weirdly, makes me hopping mad and even more furious with Michelle Thatcher! LOL! Now see what you did!
I popped my cork. :)
Ok, “alleged shilling”
It does not matter.
He was born in the United States.
End of story.
Because he's a TEXAN!
I liked Perry too.:(
Woe to them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! (Isaiah 5:20)
Interesting perspective. In 2008 voters went for charisma, but after the last few years, a sincere guy with family values may be a great relief.
? Romney won in Pottawatamie (Council Bluffs, big money RINOs) and Plymouth County (Le Mars, but this county doesn’t matter.
You might include Dickinson (Lake Okoboji, big money RINOs) and Fremont County (which doesn’t matter).
Almost all of western Iowa went Santorum. The Romney counts there are done.
Romney votes are being ‘found’ in Story (Ames) and Dubuque counties.
Well, I am personally sorry to see him drop out, (if that’s his ultimate decision) because if not Newt Gingrich, then my support was going to go to Governor Perry for the win.
I knew I would have to hold my breath and pray throughout the debates, but his positions and policies were spot on like Newt’s and I loved his part time congress!
You are right.... Persecution is no stranger to those who listen to their hearts and conscience more than the liberal media!!
I agree. Iowa's is not winner-take-all so both Santorum and Romney will come away with 6 delegates regardless of who ekes out the plurality.
So Santorum is going to get all the headlines out of this, being that Romney's been campaigning for about 100 years already.
Santorum is about to speak to his crowd which I think is a smart move as people on the East Coast need to go to bed. It might be 2AM before we figure out who wins. Romney can give his speech to the crickets.
I agree 100%
Sad but true... this is why they hate him.
...oh, and IBTZ in case any more Romney bots/ Paulistinians show up!
Iowa is usually never a predictor of who will ultimately win. Santorum will have to show he can win in some other state. Or at least have a strong 2nd showing. At some point, the money dries up, and the establishments starts to get behind one candidate. If Santorum cannot get a win or strong show in SC or FL, then it will probably be Newt vs Mitt until the convention. I don’t see Newt dropping out as long as he has any money. Sounds like Perry may be chucking it in early, which is too bad. He was my candidate. But got stuck with a bad meme due to the early gaffs.
13% isn't too hot anyway, but taking your point, seems to me he got 13% of the men (the men making up half of his total), and 13% of the women (also making up half of his total); for a total of 13% of the voters.
Looked at the way you presented it, he also got 6.5% male voters ... but I think it's better to clarify that by saying 6.5% of the total votes were cast by males, for Gingrich.
I think you are right. They are finding Romney votes in a pickup truck between Ames and somewhere.
I suspect Ron Paul has hijacked the vote totin’ truck, and aims to rig them votes. Watch this thing.
And I could not be happier for him!... Even if this is his only win, at least he will have the "honor" to be attacked now :)... rather than IGNORED like he is a no body!
Remember Hunter 4 years ago? I supported him and still think he was "quality." and he was completely ignored except by a few here in FR)