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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: tcrlaf

The establishmedia hate machine will be going full blast after an unashamed Christian Conservative. Let the war begin.

Pray for America


1,501 posted on 01/03/2012 9:16:48 PM PST by bray (Romney is the Establishment)
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To: Yulee

Rubio’s parents were refugees from Cuba and WERE NOT U.S. Citizens at the time of their son’s birth ... Rubio explained this on a radio broadcast... in fact there is even dispute that they were even refugees - most likely illegal aliens ... but never the less ...


1,502 posted on 01/03/2012 9:16:58 PM PST by ICCtheWay
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To: World'sGoneInsane
"Perry won’t drop out now. He is going to S.C."

FL is about four days after SC- He's going to FL, at least.

1,503 posted on 01/03/2012 9:16:58 PM PST by matthew fuller ("If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill)
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To: tcrlaf

They hate the man because he wants to defend the lives of infants in the womb, and uphold traditional marriage.

That’s it, pure and simple.


1,504 posted on 01/03/2012 9:17:24 PM PST by Deo volente (God willing, America will survive this Obamination.)
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To: bigbob
I heard every word, and he said he was going to pray over it.

He's out!

1,505 posted on 01/03/2012 9:17:24 PM PST by Prokopton
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To: Mozilla

I came in only for about the last 30 seconds of what he said, but am listening to commentary right now. I’m sure he’ll go back. He has nothing to lose by going back to Texas now, where he can serve out the term he said he would. If he stays in the game, he’ll likely be further embarassed, which could make things worse for his chances the next go around. Heading back to Texas is a clear sign that he’s at least doubting his (nonexistent) chances. I think it’ll end up being Romney, Paul and either Newt or Santorum (depended on who gets more fundraising) come Super Tuesday. I know Huntsman will probably get out soon. I hope it’s sooner, rather than later.


1,506 posted on 01/03/2012 9:17:49 PM PST by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: SamAdams76

Helluva race tonight.


1,507 posted on 01/03/2012 9:17:53 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: jwalsh07

Apparently, it will be a Romney win, with the remaining 61 precincts outstanding. Probably Mittens will lead by 300.


1,508 posted on 01/03/2012 9:17:59 PM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for Santorum if he is on the April 3 ballot.)
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To: RitaOK
Yep. He said he is going home to Texas to see if there is a path forward for him. He was very subdued reading and choking up over a Marine’s letter written to him. He is out, I am sure. Money people I am sure, more of showing than the 10%. I love Rick Perry.

Michele is probably thinking "Oh goody if he drops out, I'll pick up all his votes."
Umm, Michele -- Not.

1,509 posted on 01/03/2012 9:18:07 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: matthew fuller; World'sGoneInsane

Governor Perry is going back to Texas to consider his next steps... to see if he thinks there’s a pathway forward.

He’s going to pray about it, too.


1,510 posted on 01/03/2012 9:18:34 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: RitaOK
Yep. He said he is going home to Texas to see if there is a path forward for him. He was very subdued reading and choking up over a Marine’s letter written to him. He is out, I am sure. Money people I am sure, more of showing than the 10%. I love Rick Perry.

I do too. He is the best guy for the job. I hope he goes on - Iowa doesn't pick the eventual winner, they usually pick the eventual loser.

1,511 posted on 01/03/2012 9:18:54 PM PST by alicewonders ((GO PERRY!))
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To: SamAdams76

I’m wondering if it really matters who “wins” - it’s going to end up a dead heat with maybe a 100 vote margin, and regardless, Iowa has put santorum onto a national level that he was not at before. Win or lose, he’s the big winner.


1,512 posted on 01/03/2012 9:18:56 PM PST by bigbob
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To: SamAdams76

Doesn’t matter who gets the most votes, the winner tonight is Santorum.


1,513 posted on 01/03/2012 9:19:20 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: xkaydet65
If people like me answer conservative on Gallup’s poll then it seems logical that the term conservative has meanings that do not reflect the ideologies of most here.

You sound like a confused individual, who's not sure of their ideological stance.

"People like you"? Do you subscribe to the mission of Free Republic (read it on the main page). If not, then you're not a conservative, and should not have answered 'yes' to the Gallup poll.

1,514 posted on 01/03/2012 9:19:42 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: SamAdams76
I can just picture some old farmer in bib overalls listening to George Jones on the truck radio, taking his sweet old time.

ROFLMAO! George Jones is soooooo Kansas/Missouri!

I'll call your George Jones and raise you a Slim Whitman!

1,515 posted on 01/03/2012 9:20:11 PM PST by DCBryan1 ("Forget the Lawyers! FIRST YOU MUST kill the journalists!" - Die Ritter, die sagen, "nee"!)
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To: free me

Romney is obama lite... nothing more - nor nothing less...


1,516 posted on 01/03/2012 9:20:11 PM PST by ICCtheWay
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To: free me

I’m a Perry supporter, not shilling for Romney. Or I hope I still am able to support Perry. But his speech sounded like he is heading out. Too bad. I thought Perry had a great shot. All those early gaffs did him in. The public meme became Perry doesn’t know what is going on outside the walls of TX. Same thing media did to Palin. It’s sad. I know there are a ton of alternate media outlets now, but the MSM still has too much power.


1,517 posted on 01/03/2012 9:20:18 PM PST by gswilder
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To: RitaOK

I can only hear the audio from the Fox feed. Thanks for the update.


1,518 posted on 01/03/2012 9:20:27 PM PST by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: Theodore R.

Big deal, he spent $10-15 million to beat Santorum who likely didn’t spend $150K by 300 votes. He should be very concerned if Conservatives begin dropping out.

Great job Rick!

Pray for America


1,519 posted on 01/03/2012 9:20:29 PM PST by bray (Romney is the Establishment)
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To: gswilder

Rick Santorum 29,210 25%
Mitt Romney 29,173 25%
Ron Paul 25,307 22%
Newt Gingrich 15,722 14%
Rick Perry 12,194 11%
Michele Bachmann 5,934 6%
Herman Cain 57 1%


1,520 posted on 01/03/2012 9:20:43 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: bigbob

Even so, being able to claim a win over Romney, however narrow, would truly make this a David vs Goliath moment.


1,521 posted on 01/03/2012 9:20:56 PM PST by Cato in PA (Hope and pray for the Santorum surge!)
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To: onyx

Hey Onyx, I hope Rick will pray on it. He’s a good man- never said one word against him. I will pray on it, as well.

(Oh course, I won’t tell you the content of my prayer) -:)


1,522 posted on 01/03/2012 9:21:09 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: Theodore R.

Too close to tell at this point.


1,523 posted on 01/03/2012 9:21:18 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Slings and Arrows

Agreed.


1,524 posted on 01/03/2012 9:21:18 PM PST by nicmarlo
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To: DCBryan1

I can get that info tommorrow> I want the current ZOT total. I have 3 IBTZs.....maybe a record since the Guliani purge era ;)

- - - - - -
I asked the same thing. 3 for this thread? I know we had a total of 11 or 12 the other day but that was across threads.


1,525 posted on 01/03/2012 9:21:25 PM PST by reaganaut (If Romney is a conservative then I'm the frickin Angel Moroni.)
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To: Theodore R.
There's only one winner tonight and his name is Rick Santorum. Romney stuck in the mud, can't break 30. Newt down at 13. Perry and Bachman out and the nut has his last hurrah.

Winner is Santorum by any measure EXCEPT perhaps a few votes.

1,526 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:13 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: onyx

“Governor Perry is going back to Texas to consider his next steps... to see if he thinks there’s a pathway forward.”

Yes, I heard him. Knowing him, I think he will drop out. Earlier, before the numbers came out, he said he was going to S. Carolina. Now, he isn’t.


1,527 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:19 PM PST by Marcella (Newt will smash Hussein in debates. Newt needs money.)
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To: bigbob

Nope, the delegate count will matter.

Romney and Santorum will split about 8 delegates a piece, Paul will get about 6, and Gingirch will probably get the other 3.


1,528 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:29 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: bigbob

11:58 p.m. ET

Perry is addressing supporters in West Des Moines, and is reading a letter from a man who backed him. It looks like one of his daughters is beating back tears, and she got a hug from her brother, Griffin.

“This wasn’t my purpose in life but our country is in trouble. It was my duty to serve my country one more time,” Perry says.

Perry drops a bombshell: “With the voters decision, I decided to return to Texas and determine if there is a path forward,” he says.

“With a little reflection...I am going to decide the best path forward. There is a model to take this country forward and it is in the great state of Texas.”


1,529 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:42 PM PST by sockmonkey (He's not perfect, but Perry is no wussy boy)
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To: CedarDave

Gawd, you were reading my mind, I just didn’t want to say it!! Someone awesome like Rick with such grace reads the numbers and graciously reconsiders, while Bachmann reminds me of Palin and grinds her reputation into the ground, and my last nerve into the stratisphere! This development actually, weirdly, makes me hopping mad and even more furious with Michelle Thatcher! LOL! Now see what you did!
I popped my cork. :)


1,530 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:59 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: gswilder

Ok, “alleged shilling”


1,531 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:22 PM PST by free me (heartless)
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To: RobinOfKingston

It does not matter.
He was born in the United States.
End of story.


1,532 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:38 PM PST by Kansas58
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To: Grunthor
"“Perry is not going to drop out”

Why? "

Because he's a TEXAN!

1,533 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:45 PM PST by matthew fuller ("If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill)
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To: gswilder

I liked Perry too.:(


1,534 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:57 PM PST by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: jwalsh07
Doesn’t matter who gets the most votes, the winner tonight is Santorum.

Exactly. I keep hearing the Rocky music when reading these threads tonight. The underdog goes the distance. Gotta love it.
1,535 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:59 PM PST by Antoninus (Defeat Romney--Defeat Obama.)
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To: bray
The establishmedia hate machine will be going full blast after an unashamed Christian Conservative.

Woe to them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! (Isaiah 5:20)

1,536 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:16 PM PST by MissMagnolia (ObamaCare side effects: headache,delayed treatment, 0 choice,sky-rocketing taxes & premature death)
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To: Suz in AZ
"With the way things are, I don’t think he has to be exciting. He just has to be believable."

Interesting perspective. In 2008 voters went for charisma, but after the last few years, a sincere guy with family values may be a great relief.

1,537 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:25 PM PST by Think free or die
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To: ez

? Romney won in Pottawatamie (Council Bluffs, big money RINOs) and Plymouth County (Le Mars, but this county doesn’t matter.

You might include Dickinson (Lake Okoboji, big money RINOs) and Fremont County (which doesn’t matter).

Almost all of western Iowa went Santorum. The Romney counts there are done.

Romney votes are being ‘found’ in Story (Ames) and Dubuque counties.


1,538 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:33 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: VinL

Well, I am personally sorry to see him drop out, (if that’s his ultimate decision) because if not Newt Gingrich, then my support was going to go to Governor Perry for the win.

I knew I would have to hold my breath and pray throughout the debates, but his positions and policies were spot on like Newt’s and I loved his part time congress!


1,539 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:33 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: bray

You are right.... Persecution is no stranger to those who listen to their hearts and conscience more than the liberal media!!


1,540 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:36 PM PST by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: bigbob
I’m wondering if it really matters who “wins” - it’s going to end up a dead heat with maybe a 100 vote margin, and regardless, Iowa has put santorum onto a national level that he was not at before. Win or lose, he’s the big winner.

I agree. Iowa's is not winner-take-all so both Santorum and Romney will come away with 6 delegates regardless of who ekes out the plurality.

So Santorum is going to get all the headlines out of this, being that Romney's been campaigning for about 100 years already.

Santorum is about to speak to his crowd which I think is a smart move as people on the East Coast need to go to bed. It might be 2AM before we figure out who wins. Romney can give his speech to the crickets.

1,541 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:36 PM PST by SamAdams76 (I am 34 days away from outliving Marty Feldman)
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To: ICCtheWay

I agree 100%


1,542 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:40 PM PST by free me (heartless)
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To: bray
Repost sort of, but the major take away is that Romney is STILL AND OFFICIALLY stuck at 25%. That is a problem for him. Pubbies should not worry too much about angering that 25% because that part of the Republican Party hates the rest of us and the majority will not support a conservative candidate anyway.
1,543 posted on 01/03/2012 9:25:19 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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To: Deo volente

Sad but true... this is why they hate him.


1,544 posted on 01/03/2012 9:25:25 PM PST by antceecee (Bless us Father.. have mercy on us and protect us from evil.)
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To: All
Goodnight Freepers! Battery is <5 percent and Momma is getting mad at me for keeping her up! Goodnight and God Bless! Congrats to Conservatism! I'll see you in a few hours and would like a zot count :)

...oh, and IBTZ in case any more Romney bots/ Paulistinians show up!

1,545 posted on 01/03/2012 9:25:34 PM PST by DCBryan1 ("Forget the Lawyers! FIRST YOU MUST kill the journalists!" - Die Ritter, die sagen, "nee"!)
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To: Cato in PA

Iowa is usually never a predictor of who will ultimately win. Santorum will have to show he can win in some other state. Or at least have a strong 2nd showing. At some point, the money dries up, and the establishments starts to get behind one candidate. If Santorum cannot get a win or strong show in SC or FL, then it will probably be Newt vs Mitt until the convention. I don’t see Newt dropping out as long as he has any money. Sounds like Perry may be chucking it in early, which is too bad. He was my candidate. But got stuck with a bad meme due to the early gaffs.


1,546 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:02 PM PST by gswilder
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To: tennmountainman
-- And if one assumes there is a 50-50 split of male-female votes, then he got 6.5 % women voters. --

13% isn't too hot anyway, but taking your point, seems to me he got 13% of the men (the men making up half of his total), and 13% of the women (also making up half of his total); for a total of 13% of the voters.

Looked at the way you presented it, he also got 6.5% male voters ... but I think it's better to clarify that by saying 6.5% of the total votes were cast by males, for Gingrich.

1,547 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:34 PM PST by Cboldt
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To: jjotto

I think you are right. They are finding Romney votes in a pickup truck between Ames and somewhere.


1,548 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:42 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. | FR Class of '98 |)
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To: free me

I suspect Ron Paul has hijacked the vote totin’ truck, and aims to rig them votes. Watch this thing.


1,549 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:48 PM PST by Dysart (#Changeitback)
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To: Sun
...I just heard on the radio that whether Santorum wins, or loses in Iowa, he has STUNNED the political world, and I agree. Plus, this will help Santorum raise even MORE $$...

And I could not be happier for him!... Even if this is his only win, at least he will have the "honor" to be attacked now :)... rather than IGNORED like he is a no body!

Remember Hunter 4 years ago? I supported him and still think he was "quality." and he was completely ignored except by a few here in FR)

1,550 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:48 PM PST by ElPatriota (The SILENCE of the Catholic Church in protecting our culture from perversion is ** DEAFENING **)
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