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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: onyx

Hi dear O .. very, very wild, huh?

I think Santorum might owe some of this to putrid Alan Colmes. I bet a ton of Iowans were just as beyond sickened as we all were when they heard his filthy, scathing lies and attack on Santorum .. and likely didn’t know he and his wife lost their precious newborn. My Lord, he’s a decent family man, and Colmes was so vicious and heartless.

But what a stunner! Woo hoo .. rebellion IS brewing! Romney has to be shaken.


1,551 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:56 PM PST by STARWISE (The overlords are in place .. we are a nation under siege .. pray, go Galt & hunker down)
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To: gov_bean_ counter

“attacks didn’t come via debate”

True...but there is a debate Saturday night (I believe) that could be mighty interesting.


1,552 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:56 PM PST by berdie
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To: SamAdams76

No national delegates were selected tonight in Iowa. Delegates to the next (county) level are uncommitted per national GOP rules.


1,553 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:56 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: parksstp

Correct, but what I meant is that regardless of the final count Romney and Santorum will end up with the same number of delegates.

Santorum’s up now on FNC...


1,554 posted on 01/03/2012 9:26:56 PM PST by bigbob
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To: gov_bean_ counter

“attacks didn’t come via debate”

True...but there is a debate Saturday night (I believe) that could be mighty interesting.


1,555 posted on 01/03/2012 9:27:05 PM PST by berdie
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To: free me

I still say it’s rigged and Romney will win. These morons on Faux, CNN, MSNBC actually think Santorum is the main challenger to Romney now. Newt wins SC going away.


1,556 posted on 01/03/2012 9:27:27 PM PST by NKP_Vet
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To: Marcella
Yes, and he still has a lot of money, but I wonder whether he was continuing to raise money?

If not Newt, I was going to support Perry, weak debater and all. I couldn't see anyone else.

1,557 posted on 01/03/2012 9:28:08 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: berdie

Tell you what, they better run Newt thru the metal detector cuz the long knives are coming out for Romney!


1,558 posted on 01/03/2012 9:28:30 PM PST by bigbob
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To: Antoninus

See how Santorum does in his speech. Hopefully he cuts the whiney stuff out forever.


1,559 posted on 01/03/2012 9:28:30 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: ez

CNN: John McCain to Endorse Mitt Romney in NH Tomorrow.

Aw, how nice. Isn’t that special?


1,560 posted on 01/03/2012 9:28:43 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: gswilder

I understand that Iowa isn’t necessarily accurate, but Santorum has been my #1 choice from the start and I’m thrilled to see him with any kind of win.

If he can’t cut it in the other states, I’ll fall in with whoever the Anti-Romney turns out to be.


1,561 posted on 01/03/2012 9:28:43 PM PST by Cato in PA (Hope and pray for the Santorum surge!)
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To: RitaOK

You have such a nice personality.


1,562 posted on 01/03/2012 9:28:58 PM PST by Tramonto (Draft Palin)
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To: jjotto
Romney votes are being ‘found’ in Story (Ames) and Dubuque counties.

One a college town; one a union town.

Both basically Democrat constituencies.

Figures.

1,563 posted on 01/03/2012 9:29:05 PM PST by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance On Parade)
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To: RitaOK

I will never vote for Freddie Newt. I will either vote for Santorum or if allowed, write-in for Palin. I despise that phoney Gingrich.


1,564 posted on 01/03/2012 9:29:09 PM PST by tennmountainman
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To: SamAdams76

A smart move for Santorum to speak right now, when people back east will soon be heading for bed.

Pennsylvanians will take notice tonight. This is someone who can beat Obama there, I believe.


1,565 posted on 01/03/2012 9:29:12 PM PST by Deo volente (God willing, America will survive this Obamination.)
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To: bigbob
I’m not in the tank for Perry, but those here who keep insisting his financial support will disappear over 120,000 votes in Iowa don’t understand the nature of Texans, especially wealthy Texans, very well.

Amen to that. I could have sworn i just heard Fox speculating about him going back home to Texas now, but they just don't know, do they? lol. They probably mistook a little humility for him being a wuss,.. who knows? I'll believe it when i hear it from his own mouth.

1,566 posted on 01/03/2012 9:29:23 PM PST by naxetevitan
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To: onyx

Well, Romney just wrapped up the conservative vote. McCain’s endorsing him tomorrow.
It’s like he purposely wants to stick it to conservatives


1,567 posted on 01/03/2012 9:29:41 PM PST by jeltz25
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To: JDW11235

Right. Rick Perry has nothing to lose by going out now. I expect Bachmann will do the same after thinking things over. They should go and back Santorum. It would leave the field at 5 people and Huntsman will leave soon after New Hampshire. So 4 will be left in South Carolina. If it goes like that.


1,568 posted on 01/03/2012 9:29:44 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: ElPatriota
Remember Hunter 4 years ago?

Boy, do I..I donated money to him, IIRC, on a Wednesday, and I dug deep for him..The next day, Thursday, he dropped out.

1,569 posted on 01/03/2012 9:29:51 PM PST by sockmonkey (He's not perfect, but Perry is no wussy boy)
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To: Free Vulcan

Story County and Dubuque County have now almost entirely reported. I think that Santorum can win this.


1,570 posted on 01/03/2012 9:30:11 PM PST by Engraved-on-His-hands
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To: Tramonto

Santorum quotes C.S. Lewis in a tribute to his wife. Nice touch for his supporters actually know who Lewis is for the most part.


1,571 posted on 01/03/2012 9:30:20 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: Dysart

All the delay gives Santorum time to build a heck of a room full of the sounds of victory and a nice victory speech. Good for him.


1,572 posted on 01/03/2012 9:30:20 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: ICCtheWay

Your opinion is not shared by ANY legal authorities today.

You are pretty much ALONE.


1,573 posted on 01/03/2012 9:30:28 PM PST by Kansas58
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To: gov_bean_ counter

... the major take away is that Romney is STILL AND OFFICIALLY stuck at 25%. That is a problem for him.

****************

That’s why we named him Mr. 25%.


1,574 posted on 01/03/2012 9:30:28 PM PST by InterceptPoint (TIN)
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To: matthew fuller

I hope Perry does NOT drop out, and I do not believe he will. After listening to Rush today I think Rush hopes he doesn’t back out either!


1,575 posted on 01/03/2012 9:30:50 PM PST by seekthetruth (I want a Commander In Chief who honors and supports our Military!)
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To: DCBryan1

And what is your problem with Kansas?


1,576 posted on 01/03/2012 9:31:38 PM PST by guitarplayer1953 (Grammar & spelling maybe wrong, get over it, the world will not come to an end!)
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To: ElPatriota

You might remember that I supported Duncan Hunter as well, but it looks like Santorum is off to a better start.

I wonder who Duncan Hunter will support?


1,577 posted on 01/03/2012 9:31:59 PM PST by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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To: jeltz25

Romney back up by 42 votes.

East IA still out. Very few conservative spots left, but enough to keep it close.


1,578 posted on 01/03/2012 9:32:04 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: jeltz25

Still at 96% in but Rick picked up a few more votes — Now ahead by 44.


1,579 posted on 01/03/2012 9:32:28 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: Dysart
Iowa is a very hard state to cheat in because you all vote and count together. The only way they could is to make up a bizarre story about driving the votes in a pickup truck and that no-one who was at the caucus knows what the tallies were.

Here we go Romney back on top. The fix is in...

1,580 posted on 01/03/2012 9:32:28 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. | FR Class of '98 |)
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To: RitaOK

If Perry withdraws from the race, it will be America’s loss.
He would be a credit to the office of the President of the United States.


1,581 posted on 01/03/2012 9:32:47 PM PST by baysider
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To: tcrlaf; All

MORE Celeb/Media tweets about Santorum:

Adam Grace- Professional magician, actor, musician, and writer
-Ewww please not Santorum, he’s just another one of those close-minded crazies.

Howard Fineman-HuffPo Snr Politics Editor
-It’s going to take a little while for people to realize — or remember — just how far right Santorum is on social issues

MAJORITY REPORT - Lib Blog
- Rick Santorum: “I’ll Protect Your Tax Dollars From Black People”


1,582 posted on 01/03/2012 9:32:53 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: naxetevitan
could have sworn i just heard Fox speculating about him going back home to Texas now,

Maybe because that is what he just publicly stated he's going to do.

1,583 posted on 01/03/2012 9:32:53 PM PST by Prokopton
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To: onyx

Agreed. But we all know we have to get to 1 conservative- so I had to accept my man Cain dropping- and obviously others will ultimately have to do the same— the smug establishment has to be defeated.

So, if Rick drops out, my only hope is that he will do it in an exclusive inetrview with Rove— and at the end- punch that pudge ball right in the chops. -:)


1,584 posted on 01/03/2012 9:33:09 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: STARWISE

(((((STAR)))))
Yes, I hadn’t thought of the Colmes angle, but I think you’re right! Still don’t know who won, do you? Did Romney squeak by? Not that it matters. Iowa and their OPEN primary. Ron Paul didn’t win, but he showed well enough.


1,585 posted on 01/03/2012 9:33:09 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: Windflier; xkaydet65

Windflier wrote:
<<
I guess for a RINO or a lib, it would. Which one are you?
>>

**************************************************************

I was about to ask the very same thing!


1,586 posted on 01/03/2012 9:33:18 PM PST by DestroyLiberalism
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To: parksstp

making my first of many donations to Rick Santorium tonight!!!!!!!!!!


1,587 posted on 01/03/2012 9:33:23 PM PST by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: InterceptPoint

Yep and none of the other candidates can even get to 25% and stay there for more than a few weeks.

Once the primaries get rolling, things will clear up pretty quickly. I think we will know the nominee by Feb/Mar.


1,588 posted on 01/03/2012 9:33:30 PM PST by gswilder
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To: tcrlaf

Of course. It’s what they do.

And as much as I love Santorum, this is why I believe we need Newt. Newt is as nasty and down and dirty as they are — except he’s a long-time conservative who loves this country.

Like both — but can Santorum stand up to the evil? Not sure yet ...


1,589 posted on 01/03/2012 9:33:37 PM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: ez

Romney up again by 62 with 2 percent left.

Just TCTC here. Vote swinging back and forth.


1,590 posted on 01/03/2012 9:33:45 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Tramonto

Yes, I know. Everybody pretty much loves me a lot. Just ask around. (I expect it was at the mention of Ms. Palin that sullied my reputation, and drove your last nerve into the stratisphere, right?)


1,591 posted on 01/03/2012 9:33:52 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: seekthetruth

Just as I predicted 5 minutes ago. Romney will win after losing all night long. Santorum wins 90% of the land area in the state but the leftwing creep Romney wins in the end.

FIX, FIX, FIX.


1,592 posted on 01/03/2012 9:33:52 PM PST by NKP_Vet (creep.)
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To: parksstp
" CNN: John McCain to Endorse Mitt Romney in NH Tomorrow. "

As most conservatives would say " WHO CARES ! " ...
1,593 posted on 01/03/2012 9:34:13 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: RitaOK

Santorum sounds great!

“The essential issue in this race is freedom!”


1,594 posted on 01/03/2012 9:34:23 PM PST by Deo volente (God willing, America will survive this Obamination.)
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To: jwalsh07

Wow, Santorum is knocking it out of the park with this speech. I’ve not been his biggest fan but he’s right on the mark.


1,595 posted on 01/03/2012 9:34:31 PM PST by bigbob
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To: Mozilla

Agreed. Personally, I think Bachmann will leave so that Romney can pick her up as a VP nominee. I don’t know that for sure, but I have said before, I think we may never again see a presidential ticket without an ethnic minority or a woman on it. I think Romney will definitely try something of that nature, but it likely won’t work (again).


1,596 posted on 01/03/2012 9:34:32 PM PST by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: NKP_Vet

Pyrrhic victory for Mitt.


1,597 posted on 01/03/2012 9:34:34 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: baysider

I agree RitaOK, Perry would have made a great president.


1,598 posted on 01/03/2012 9:34:51 PM PST by gswilder
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To: NKP_Vet

3/4 Santorum leaning precincts left. This ain’t over. Dubuque is done.


1,599 posted on 01/03/2012 9:35:10 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: dfwgator

I’m pulling for Santorum but could his speech be any more boring?


1,600 posted on 01/03/2012 9:35:20 PM PST by teg_76
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