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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: jennychase

Palin needs to get some skin in the game and ENDORSE ONE of..

Newt
Santorum

or

Flopney


851 posted on 01/03/2012 7:40:15 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Rubio 2012 with Cain, Bolton, Santorum, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: CainConservative

Seems pretty dumb to want to get to one candidate after one primary (not even a real primary, open). I don’t see the rush to eliminate candidates.

I’d think SC would give us plenty of time to pick an anti-Romney candidate and we’ll actually be fairly confident after that vote.


852 posted on 01/03/2012 7:40:19 PM PST by Kenny
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To: Free Vulcan

It’s only Iowa...why is everyone acting like it’s the real election..really


853 posted on 01/03/2012 7:40:19 PM PST by angelcindy ("If you follow the crowd ,you get no further than the crowd!")
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To: BenKenobi

“Given Santorum’s showing tonight, time to throw out the national data.”

Oh, brother....................

Presidents Mike Huckabee, Gary Hart, and Pat Robertson will see you now.

You put waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa too much stock in relatively meaningless Iowa. In fact, you put Iowa over the entire rest of the nation combined. LOL


854 posted on 01/03/2012 7:40:31 PM PST by TitansAFC (Mitt Romney gets less bang for the buck than John-Freaking-Huntsman.)
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To: fatima

” Sounds like your supporting Obama. “

What’s your deal, fatima? Got a problem? Still?


855 posted on 01/03/2012 7:40:47 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: US Navy Vet

Those were not percentages. Those were actual numbers. Our total count for our precinct was 157 votes.


856 posted on 01/03/2012 7:40:58 PM PST by US Navy Vet (Go Packers! Go Rockies! Go Boston Bruins! See, I'm "Diverse"!)
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To: VinL

As well Gov. Palin should. He is the only one praising her- and offering a job of Secretary of Energy. The rest shun her.

I think she steps up in SC - and if she starts campaigning for Newt-, it’s Katie bar the door. -:)


I pray you’re right!!!


857 posted on 01/03/2012 7:41:02 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: gswilder

I was not implying that you are a lib or obama supporter. I was concerned that maybe you had swallowed the SRM propaganda that “only Romney can beat obama.” The people pushing that message are thinking long-term. They know that Romney can be savaged as a Mormon, and they WILL do that(AFTER he is nominated). They also know that many evangelicals and conservatives simply will not vote for Romney.


858 posted on 01/03/2012 7:41:09 PM PST by matt1234 (Bring back the HUAC.)
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To: gswilder

The way Iowa allocates its delegates is NOT based on tonight’s “votes”. We also voted for delegates to the county convention. Then we will vote for delegates to the district convention and ultimately the state convention.....at that point it will be clear who the delegates support. There are NO delegates from Iowa allocated tonight.


859 posted on 01/03/2012 7:41:21 PM PST by Iowa David
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To: TitansAFC

Newt or Santorum would be great.


860 posted on 01/03/2012 7:41:21 PM PST by bray (Romney is the Establishment)
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To: Joe 6-pack

Iowa is now officially a joke.

Rick Sanctimonious and Gramps have zero chance of winning so it will come down to Newt or Mitt.


861 posted on 01/03/2012 7:41:29 PM PST by Reagan69 (I supported Sarah Palin and all I got was a lousy DVD !)
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To: Aroostook25

Or we can go with Reagan.

“Conservativism never loses”


862 posted on 01/03/2012 7:41:50 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: caww

He’ll do fine with a little coaching.

He doesn’t need teleprompters.

I would love to see his kids sliding down the banisters in the White House!


863 posted on 01/03/2012 7:42:04 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: Yankee
FOX projects Gingrich will finish 4th, Perry 5th.

Both of them "out of the money".

864 posted on 01/03/2012 7:42:09 PM PST by Prokopton
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To: Salvation

Nice Santorum ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvvgNdY28-c


865 posted on 01/03/2012 7:42:52 PM PST by Deo volente (God willing, America will survive this Obamination.)
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To: Iowa David

Thanks Iowa David.


866 posted on 01/03/2012 7:42:52 PM PST by gswilder
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To: TitansAFC

Remember just 4 years ago that there was to be a coronation for the Democrat nomination....until Iowa.


867 posted on 01/03/2012 7:42:54 PM PST by Rational Thought
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To: KansasGirl

Won’t their be dems voting in the Rep primaries all over the country. How many states can you flop and vote. I know it was done in Ohio for the Hillary/Rush fiasco.


868 posted on 01/03/2012 7:43:21 PM PST by proudtobeanamerican1 (A house divided against itself cannot stand.” Abraham Lincoln)
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To: gswilder
How does Iowa allocate it’s delegates?

It's crazy. After the presidential vote, they vote for county delegates, those county delegates vote for state delegates, the state delegates cast votes for President but according to an ABC Note article, they aren't committed and can change at the convention. So this is nothing but a straw poll or beauty contest!

869 posted on 01/03/2012 7:43:21 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: katiedidit1

Newt can take South Carolina. He KNOWS South Carolina. Do you realize that like 67% of the hawkeye cauci ballots were not for Romney? Shocked he has what he does, but his ceiling is in the basement in reality.


870 posted on 01/03/2012 7:43:28 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: Kenny

It’s pretty stupid for us conservatives to split up the conservative vote 3 or 4 ways.

We are NOT the stupid party as the libs call us. Or are we?

We have to beat Willard!

So sayonara, Perry and Michele. Thanks for playing.


871 posted on 01/03/2012 7:43:47 PM PST by CainConservative ( Newt/Rubio 2012 with Cain, Bolton, Santorum, Perry, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: katiedidit1

Well, dang. I missed Newt’s appearance.


872 posted on 01/03/2012 7:44:00 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: Kansas58

What does it take to be a “citizen at the moment of birth” ? Where in the world do you get that? Why would the founding fathers distinguish between “natural” born at all if it means nothing — just your foreign Mom birthing you on American soil. I was born in America to an American father and a Canadan mother - does that make me a “natural born” citizen? Supreme Court rulings have said that both my parents needed to be citizens at the time of my birth. But, you say that is baloney, right?

Rubio is no messiah as so many on FR seem to think. He’s another big Globalist who is not eligible to run and he knows it, too.


873 posted on 01/03/2012 7:44:07 PM PST by Sioux-san
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To: Kenny

Boy, Fox really wants Perry to drop out. They’ve done everything they can to say his campaign is hopeless.

What happened to fair and balanced?
+++++++++++

Faux News (FN) morphed into the Unfair and Unbalanced News Network (UUNN). Don’t watch them anymore.


874 posted on 01/03/2012 7:44:23 PM PST by InterceptPoint (TIN)
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To: MSF BU

Polk County has nearly double the number of voters as the next largest counties. Only six counties in Iowa have big vote totals (they can pretty much swamp the rest of the state), and only two of those have nearly complete results:

Black Hawk: Paul 24% Romney 23 Santorum 21

Johnson

Linn: Romney 27% Santorum 26 Paul 24

Polk

Scott

Woodbury


875 posted on 01/03/2012 7:44:38 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: onyx

Agree with you totally. Fox during the day is teasing stories and follows up somewhere along the line after other stories are teased. Not watchable any longer for people that are on the go!


876 posted on 01/03/2012 7:44:38 PM PST by mojo114 (Pray for our military)
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To: angelcindy

That’s nothing. A week ago they were acting like the polls were the election.


877 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:04 PM PST by mamelukesabre
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To: eyedigress

Romney likly has NH sewed up pretty tight....but...In 92 Clinton lost to Paul Tsongas ...2000 George W lost to John McCain... and Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in 08.

So stranger things have happened in these elections so who can really tell as they play out...more than once I’ve been jolted by shifts and events along the way.

Santorum is making a surprising comeupping....I didn’t expect that.


878 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:04 PM PST by caww
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To: TitansAFC

The game has changed, sir. :)

A Santorum win here will increase his nationwide numbers. He’s the best conservative in the race, and the fact that he can win? Speaks volumes.


879 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:04 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: untwist; onyx; caww; CainConservative; RitaOK

Newt is the true threat to Romney. Yes, Santorum hit the trail virtually unscathed by massive attacks...for Newt to do as well as he did being the target of not only Romney and Paul but of Fox News is quite a feat for Gingrich. I have been blogging all over the internet for Newt and also, got a call from the RNC today and I blasted them for their shabby treatment of Newt..told them every dime I donate will go straight to Gingrich and not once red cent to the RNC.
Well gang...goodnight. I have been running all day and so much to do...see y’all on FR for the SAT night debate in NH!!! glad this Iowa corny fiasco from hell is over...


880 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:08 PM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: BenKenobi
“Conservativism never loses”

We lost in 1992, 1996, and 2008. Insist on too far right and we will lose in 2012. And we are losing states which used to be red, then purple.

881 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:08 PM PST by Aroostook25
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To: onyx

Check this out...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2828362/posts


882 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:21 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter
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To: Rational Thought

4 years ago Rick Santuckabee was named Mike Huckatorum.


883 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:21 PM PST by TitansAFC (Mitt Romney gets less bang for the buck than John-Freaking-Huntsman.)
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To: Prokopton

FOX projects Gingrich will finish 4th, Perry 5th.
Both of them “out of the money”.

*************

Luckily for Newt and conservatives, a new race starts tomorrow. Iowa will be so yesterday.


884 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:36 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: Theodore R.

” If there had been no Bachmann, Santorum would have a little cushion tonight.” <<<

You know you’re right about that!


885 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:36 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: Reagan69

And I repeat myself. Romney and Santorum will get destroyed
in SC. This is without Palin’s endorsement. Newt is a good ole Southern boy, was a Georgia congressman for years and knows most people in SC by their first name.

Newt wins SC and Florida and will be the nominee.

Not Romney. Not Santorum. Perry had a chance and blew
it in the debates.


886 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:57 PM PST by NKP_Vet
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To: Sioux-san
Supreme Court rulings have said that both my parents needed to be citizens at the time of my birth.

Show me that citation.

887 posted on 01/03/2012 7:45:57 PM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: RitaOK
Shocked he has what he does, but his ceiling is in the basement in reality.

It's funny, his ceiling is in the same place Paul supporters come from, sans the bathrobe and blogging finger...:-)

888 posted on 01/03/2012 7:46:08 PM PST by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: Deo volente

Beautiful!

He is the traditional values candidate!


889 posted on 01/03/2012 7:46:19 PM PST by Palladin (No Newts!)
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To: Aroostook25
YOU ARE ON THE WRONG SITE!!!
890 posted on 01/03/2012 7:47:00 PM PST by steve86 (Acerbic by nature, not nurture (Could be worst in 40 years))
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To: bray
Obviously, I favor Santorum over Gingrich. But, I could vote for and support Gingrich against Obama.

What I really wonder about now is what Perry is going to do? I keep hearing he has money, but how long will that last after tonight?

891 posted on 01/03/2012 7:47:03 PM PST by Rational Thought
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To: katiedidit1
You seem to be saying that Rick Santorum is another Huckabee.
892 posted on 01/03/2012 7:47:13 PM PST by danielmryan
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To: CainConservative

51% in,
Santorum 25%, Mittens 24%, Wrong Paul 22%, Newt 14%, Perry 11%, Michele 6%


893 posted on 01/03/2012 7:47:13 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: jennychase
Sarah is creating real mess for establishment. Last week she endorsed Santorum, before that she praised Newt. Both gained after her endorsement. Today she had called MB to go back to Congress, (sweet revenge).

She didn't endorse anyone. She gave her opinion on strengths and weaknesses. She did however say that Michele should consider dropping out unless she wants to spend her own money.

894 posted on 01/03/2012 7:47:25 PM PST by CedarDave
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To: Free Vulcan

Karl “Tokyo” Rove’s head is actually growing in size with each of his incremental appearances on the Fox coverage tonight. If this lasts all night, it could get ugly!


895 posted on 01/03/2012 7:47:25 PM PST by PaleoBob
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To: Yankee

“I wonder much longer some people are going to keep looking to her as if she’s the Oracle of Delphi?”

No one is. But her insights are more relevant than most.


896 posted on 01/03/2012 7:48:02 PM PST by Norm Lenhart (Curse you, Norm Lenhart! Im slain, crumpled in a ditch by your obvious superiority - Humblegunner)
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To: Free Vulcan

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/iowa-caucus-jan-3/

Santorum 25%


897 posted on 01/03/2012 7:48:10 PM PST by ATOMIC_PUNK (Any man may make a mistake ; none but a fool will persist in it . { Latin proverb })
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To: Pappy Smear

I’d overlooked Jefferson County. It was the only county Paul carried in ‘08. Paulbots were flying high in the golden dome. Oddly Huck came in second there.


898 posted on 01/03/2012 7:48:20 PM PST by JohnBovenmyer (Obama been Liberal. Hope Change!)
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To: Pappy Smear

I’d overlooked Jefferson County. It was the only county Paul carried in ‘08. Paulbots were flying high in the golden dome. Oddly Huck came in second there.


899 posted on 01/03/2012 7:48:27 PM PST by JohnBovenmyer (Obama been Liberal. Hope Change!)
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To: RitaOK

Michele needs to endorse Santorum pronto!

Santorum/Bachmann is a ticket I would be more than happy to support.


900 posted on 01/03/2012 7:48:27 PM PST by Deo volente (God willing, America will survive this Obamination.)
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