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Rasmussen in FL: Romney 41, Gingrich 19, Santorum 15
Hot Air ^ | JANUARY 12, 2012 | ED MORRISSEY

Posted on 01/12/2012 8:29:04 AM PST by Qbert

While South Carolina looks like a toss-up, according to the latest Insider Advantage poll, Florida looks like it could become a rout.  The latest Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney with a bigger lead than he had in New Hampshire, beating Newt Gingrich by 22 points in a state that could spell the effective end of the primary:

Mitt Romney is now running away with the race in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ survey of the end-of-the-month Florida Republican Primary.

Coming off his decisive win in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively. The two men finished second and third in New Hampshire where independents are allowed to vote in the primary. The Florida primary is open to Republican voters only. Texas Governor Rick Perry runs dead last among primary voters in the Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

A loss in South Carolina might soften up that lead a bit for Romney, but that would have to be a very large tumble to lose the state.  His opponents would have to win back huge chunks of demographics, including an 18-point lead among men and a 28-point lead among women, where Gingrich and Santorum tie at 16% to Romney’s near-majority 44%.  Romney even gets the edge among very conservative voters, 29/26 over Santorum with Gingrich at 25%, but wins a majority of “somewhat conservative” voters at 53%, with Gingrich in second at 16%.

Nor is Gingrich likely to make a charge in Florida, according to favorability numbers in this poll os 750 likely GOP primary voters.  He has a respectable 59/37 rating, but Romney’s is 76/21, with his 32% “very favorable” eleven points better than Gingrich’s.  Perry has cratered in Florida, with a 43/52 favorability rating, which still beats both Paul (33/64) and Huntsman (34/51).  Only Santorum challenges Romney in this measure with a 61/29 rating, but only 8% see him as the strongest candidate to challenge Obama, while a majority of 55% say that about Romney. Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination, and 87% believe that the likely Republican nominee is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama in November.

Assuming Romney wins in South Carolina, a win in Florida is almost assured.  With numbers like this, don’t be surprised to see more GOP figures lining up behind Romney in an attempt to unify the party early and aim its rhetorical guns at Team Obama.  That might be why John Bolton endorsed Romney late yesterday:

John Bolton, George W. Bush’s controversial Ambassador to the United Nations, will endorse Mitt Romney tonight, a Romney supporter told BuzzFeed.

Bolton tweeted earlier this evening that he plans to make a major announcement on Fox News’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”

And while Jim DeMint has been careful to remain neutral, his advisors are climbing aboard Team Mitt, too:

A group of loyalists to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint – including a top fundraiser for Rick Perry – will publicly endorse Mitt Romney’s presidential bid on Thursday, a source confirmed to CNN.

Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Barry Wynn, Columbia businessman and fundraiser Peter Brown, and Columbia attorney Kevin Hall will announce their support for Romney Thursday.

Wynn’s move to Romney is striking. The Spartanburg financial adviser is a member of Perry’s finance team and traveled to Texas in August to meet privately with the governor before he announced his bid.

Jeb Bush will probably wait for South Carolina to vote, but I’d bet that he will endorse Romney shortly afterward.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: demint; election2012; fl; florida; gingrich; romney; santorum
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To: Qbert
looks like I am voting for Obama

We are screwed

141 posted on 01/12/2012 1:16:55 PM PST by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
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To: manc

If you’d like, we Alabamians can annex North Florida, say from Pensacola to the Appalachicola.... or the Withilacotchee/Suwanee.


142 posted on 01/12/2012 1:17:00 PM PST by Alas Babylon!
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To: Cowman

He didn’t make any attacks on capitalism...that’s Rush’s narrative, and evn Rush now seems to have realized that the statement was, to put it mildly, excessive. In fact, I can’t find anything anywhere where Gingrich attacks capitalism. The abusive practices and cronyism of Romney’s firm, and his lies about them, do not represent “capitalism.” Attacking them is perfectly legitimate.

As for his likes and dislikes, he’s an historian and there certainly are things about all of these people that are worthy. FDR was a good leader during WWII (which was actually what pulled us out of the Depression), and Teddy Roosevelt, while being too enthusiastic about engaging in foreign adventures, established good things too, such as our National Parks system.

I think you have to look at the actual plans that Gingrich has put forward and to the things that he accomplished if you want to get a true idea of the direction in which he would go. He actually does have a verifiable record of conservative policies and achievement.


143 posted on 01/12/2012 1:19:00 PM PST by livius
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To: JediJones

I know I will get flamed for saying this but a Palin endorsement would not seem to carry the same weight as it did in 2010.Who else will endorse and group all on one candidate? If you look at the infighting in this forum it will be hard to happen naturally without a voiced endorsement.I wish it could.Time will tell...


144 posted on 01/12/2012 1:24:45 PM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
Or it could be Santorum.We will not know until SC decides.

Have you looked at the latest polling going into SC? Romney is barely edging out Newt, and Santorum is way behind.

If Perry takes his best shot at Mitt during the debates, then asks his supporters to get behind Newt just before the vote, it'll be all over for Romney.

145 posted on 01/12/2012 1:24:53 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: RockinRight
Since Newt sacrificed himself by the Bain/Capitalism thing I think he is over. He can still make ads or just give his money to Santorum. If Perry could talk in public off the top of his head he might do ok, but he can't. Perry and Gingrich have both ruined themselves with mainstream Republicans with their what to some looks like an attack on Capitalism. If Rick Santorum had Newts and Perry's votes he might be able to offset Romney.

Mainstream Republicans don't like Newt or Perry as much as we don't like Romney and their votes count too. It is a shame we can't all find a compatible candidate. But the mainstream Republicans didn't like Reagan at first either.

These ads of Newts have got to hurt Romney. I am afraid they hurt all Republicans because all Republicans are identified with Capitalism. Newts Ads will become Obamas ads. It's a strange world.

146 posted on 01/12/2012 1:25:17 PM PST by JAKraig (Surely my religion is at least as good as yours)
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To: Windflier

I get this but the polls fluctuated before and they could again.Polls are for strippers they can change poles LOL.When the results are in I just hope all get behind whoever comes in second or beats Romney.


147 posted on 01/12/2012 1:28:44 PM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
I get this but the polls fluctuated before and they could again.

As the old saying goes, "the trend is your friend."

Rick Santorum has been a second tier candidate since the race began. What happened to him in Iowa was the result of massive negative campaigning against Newt by the Romney camp. It's a spike that will not last, and is even now, settling back to normal.

This is also why you're beginning to see Newt's numbers rebounding. Gotta go, but keep those things in mind.

148 posted on 01/12/2012 1:34:54 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Alas Babylon!

I’d love that.
Cut off the north of FL from the say I4 north and join with GA, AL, MS.

There was a small movement in south FL not too long ago where they wanted to be split from us up in the northern part of the state.

No arguments from me on that.

When it comes to FL some of us here have a saying.
The south is the north and the north is the south.


149 posted on 01/12/2012 1:35:35 PM PST by manc (Marriage is between one man and one woman.Trolls get a life, I HATE OUR BIASED LIBERAL MEDIA.)
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To: livius
As for his likes and dislikes, he’s an historian and there certainly are things about all of these people that are worthy. FDR was a good leader during WWII (which was actually what pulled us out of the Depression), and Teddy Roosevelt, while being too enthusiastic about engaging in foreign adventures, established good things too, such as our National Parks system.

FDR through the New (raw) Deal injected most of the government regulatory nonsense we have now. He wanted a 100% income tax AND his policies intentionally prolonged the depression so that the public would be more willing to give themselves to government. FDR made it illegal to own gold and essentially handed eastern Europe to the Communists. TR presided over the beginnings of the slide toward Socialism in this country. The National Parks were one of the biggest transfers of private land to government in history, AND he began the process to get the 16th amendment and thereby the income tax that has made us all slaves to the IRS. The cause of individual freedom would have been greatly advanced had both of the Roosevelts had died in childhood.

You say yourself that Newt is a historian so he has to know these things and yet these are his favorite Presidents. I notice that you are not trying to defend Newt's view of Wilson but then Wilson is indefensible in any circumstance. (read up on the APL sometime

150 posted on 01/12/2012 1:50:19 PM PST by Cowman (How can the IRS seize property without a warrant if the 4th amendment still stands?)
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To: dfwgator

“Perry should be the VP Choice.”

Probably going to be either Perry or Christie of NJ... (remember Christie’s _very_ early endorsement of Romney?)


151 posted on 01/12/2012 1:53:14 PM PST by Road Glide
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To: Qbert
I can never understand why the Republican party moves further left every time the democrat party moves left.

They NEVER move right to counter the dem's.

They may as well merge and we can just have primaries from now on.

152 posted on 01/12/2012 2:16:22 PM PST by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: Qbert

It’s time for Newt, Bachmann, Perry, Palin and Cain to back Santorum as a last-ditch play. Newt’s #s have utterly collapsed in FL from the last poll, with Rick doubling.


153 posted on 01/12/2012 3:07:07 PM PST by montag813
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To: Qbert
UGH.

154 posted on 01/12/2012 3:29:10 PM PST by VictoryGal (Never give up, never surrender! REMEMBER NEDA)
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To: All; Qbert
Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination

Perception IS reality in politics and many facets of life.

It's lunacy that four (or fewer) of 50 states can decide the nominee for any party.

155 posted on 01/12/2012 3:59:49 PM PST by newzjunkey (Just say no to the big gov't, neocon, socon statist.)
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To: dfwgator
Perry should be the VP Choice.

I don't how this would be possible under any scenario.

156 posted on 01/12/2012 4:38:16 PM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for the Right Rick --Santorum-- if he is on the April 3 ballot.)
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To: Sybeck1

157 posted on 01/12/2012 4:46:56 PM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: cardinal4

Maybe it was always this bad and we just did not know it.
Except for Reagan, we need to go back to Coolidge for a solid conservative Republican President. With a few exceptions most Republican leaders in the House and Senate
have been “go along to get along” good old boys.


158 posted on 01/12/2012 4:52:58 PM PST by Maine Mariner
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To: Maine Mariner

Newt was doing fine in the debates and was building momentum. Then he let Romney get to him in Iowa, and lost his temper. And then wasted his time on Bain Capital. Will probably undo any shot he has. There were a lot of other Romney issues he could have focused on. This has been Newts problem. He really doesn’t have a great campaign organization as seen by several missteps including Virginia primary.

Most of the key player (especially the ones with money) are starting to line up with Romney. If Romney wins or comes close in SC and wins FLA, then it is over. You can talk about someone dropping out to stop splitting the vote. But that is not what is going on. Romney has broken through the 25% barrier, and several on the fence now see him as being a viable candidate against Obama. His showing in Iowa changed a lot of perceptions since he wasn’t expected to come in the top 3.

Santorum does seem to be fading. And my candidate, Perry, seems to be done.


159 posted on 01/12/2012 6:37:51 PM PST by gswilder
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To: Qbert

It’s over. Either way we are skrewed.


160 posted on 01/12/2012 7:09:45 PM PST by crosshairs (Liberalism is to truth, what east is to west.)
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