Skip to comments.South Carolina Primary: Romney 28%, Gingrich 21%, Santorum 16%, Paul 16%
Posted on 01/13/2012 8:28:30 AM PST by Qbert
Mitt Romney still holds first place in the South Carolina Primary field, while his opponents jockey for second with the voting eight days away.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in South Carolina finds Romney ahead with 28% support, but now former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in second place with 21% of the vote. Support for former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum who was in second a week ago has fallen back to 16%, putting him dead even with Texas Congressman Ron Paul who also earns 16%.
This South Carolina survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
If all the non-Romneys could agree on who will bear the standard, Romney would soon be yesterday’s news.
Just did a quick average of this Rasumssen poll and the ARG poll posted a little further down
Conservatives have to make a move and unite behind a single candidate NOW or Romney is going to be the nominee even though he is uwanted by 75% of the GOP voters.
We already had a Free Republic poll and the clear winner was Newt!
Rasmussen does not weight his republican primaries when he should be doing so.
The weightings should be: I. likely voters in the repub primary: 1. republican conservative 2. repub moderate/lib 3. independent conserve, 4. independ moderate/lib
I’m assuming cross-over voting is permitted in S Carolina. I don’t really know.
Could GINGRICH and SANTORUM meet and talk ?
Is that so difficult ? It’s not about them but for the future of USA...and beyond
This is not good news for Newt.
I have simulated 7 following counties so far and have Newt at 21.41%. He is flat.
With Santorum at 16%, it seems that Perry is garnering more Evangelical support than I thought in the NW. This leads to suggest that those not supporting to Santorum are turning to Perry before going to Gingrich, which is not good.
Once again, Paul is also running higher. I had him in the 13-15%. His increase may bring down slightly Romney’s percentages in Columbia and Charleston.
Overall, Newt hasn’t gained and Santorum has lost ground to Perry. If Santorum (who I had at 21.71%) had lost ground to Newt, then Gingrich should have been up over 25%. The fact he isn’t leads me to believe Gingrich has issues in the NW part of the state and that Perry is taking more votes than I though.
In some way, shape or form, Gingrich and Santorum need to join forces.
They might, but I for one will never vote for Gingrich. Period.
It sounds like Santorum is definitely in decline. I suspected this would happen after his disappointing post-Iowa performances.
Now if only we could get the Paulies to see the light...
If I have to vote for the nom today it would be Newt. Newt has overall has had higher numbers than Perry or Santorum who have been mostly battling for third.
The one time Newt has had lower numbers have mostly been a result of Romney/Paul smear job. Otherwise, Newts numbers would have been more consistent and higher.
time for Rick to drop out and endorse newt
Maybe Santorum would be willing to be Gingrich’s veep, with Gingrich promising Perry, Cain, and Palin each a prominent place in his cabinet. And even Ron Paul would get a promise to be made D.C.’s dogcatcher. (Pet isolationism, anybody?)
Yes Independents can vote in the SC primary so I was thinking Rasmussen should have had some indenpendents in that poll.
What is Perry’s number? Rasmussen doesn’t even list Perry. Yet if you add the numbers up, there are 19% unaccounted for. I’m sure most are undecided, but Perry must be getting some support.
Unwanted AND unelectable.
Two very bad traits going into the general election.
But, hey — this is how the GOP and their various minions seems to want it. This is how various VOTERS seem to want it.
Perhaps we’re just going to have to sit back and watch as the country self implodes, and hopefully be here to pick up the pieces later on.
If we’re still here. If we’re not all in jail, detained, taxed to death, taken over, or otherwise.
“Could GINGRICH and SANTORUM meet and talk?”
I fully agree. I think Santorum is a really great guy, and normally I would back him first. However, in this cycle, I think Newt would be the better GOP pick to go against the current POTUS. Ultimately, in my thinking a Gingrich/Santorum ticket would be ideal. If Santorum would drop out and endorse Newt, with Newt saying that Santorum WILL be his VP pick....I think it would get traction.
It is really time for Rick Perry, God Bless him, to get out of the race. He also should back Newt.
Ron Paul doesn’t concern me because those persons that would vote for him probably won’t vote for anyone else. So, he is just wasting time. IF I were running for POTUS, I would not want his endorsement.
"Overall, Newt hasnt gained and Santorum has lost ground to Perry."
Perry is at 5-6% in every poll in SC. He took 1% in NH. And he's currently at 2% in FL. He's the first one that needs to be voted off the island...
“Yes Independents can vote in the SC primary so I was thinking Rasmussen should have had some indenpendents in that poll.”
Oh great....another open primary.
Santorum is the key.
If you go by this poll, and speaking only of SC, Santorum plus Gingrich easily beats Romney.
Since Gingrich is leading among the non Romneys, and speaking only of SC and only by this poll...
Santorum is the key.
It is so old, rote and shopworn to have all these threads where posters demand that Perry drop out or Santorum AND Perry drop out, and try to pretend that Perry is the key to ANYTHING. Not at this time he isn’t.
I would argue that he has by far the best record, is the only non Washington figure, has by far the best plan and on and on. But as for impacting the horse race...no.
Santorum supporters obviously don’t want their guy to drop out...most of them don’t trust the volatile Newt.
Yelp run as a team....Paul should be given the task of auditing the Fed Reserve....Should make his followers happy.
“What is Perrys number? Rasmussen doesnt even list Perry. Yet if you add the numbers up, there are 19% unaccounted for. Im sure most are undecided, but Perry must be getting some support.”
6%. See link:
Right now I feel like the guy in the movie Groundhog Day since I’ve seen this scenario play out SO many times before!
There are far more people in this country who call themselves conservative but when the smoke settles all we ever have left to vote for is socialism lite!
Rush talked recently about the New Hampshire exit polling for Ron Paul, saying the the polls indicated a large percentage of RP supporters had no intention of voting for Paul in the general election, but would vote for Obama. I’m trying to find a story with those exit poll numbers. Can anyone direct me to it?
So long as Herman Cain is there to be sure Ron Paul gets the math right.
I am catholic/christian trying to use reason.
And some evangelicals and also catholics are boring when they stay focused on a very narrow point of view...It might be ,actually, hardly Evangelical since that so-called “social conservatism” is blind on some very big issues which can’t be taken apart from the others.
Real Conservatives must try to see the whole picture and to be WISER than the average lunatic liberals.
Or maybe some “evangelicals” or “catholics” are trolls in order to divide ....
We should try to hold together freedom, truth-morality,and God ! Since we are not muslims but christians
Newt will be a WHackado president, not a conservative. He will hurt the brand of conservatism if he runs as a conservative, which he isn’t. If Santorum is his veep, he might be hurt by doing so.
I wish I trusted newt the way you all do.
They want Perry out and are apparently going to make that happen. ;-(
Perry is at 6%, where he’s been for a long time, but Huntsman has surprisingly gotten up to 5% in SC.
I intend to write in George Washington for president and vote conservative on all other ballot measures.
"If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures." - Alexander Hamilton
“I would argue that he has by far the best record, is the only non Washington figure, has by far the best plan and on and on. But as for impacting the horse race...no. Santorum supporters obviously dont want their guy to drop out...most of them dont trust the volatile Newt.”
Your points about Santorum and his supporters are valid. Personally, I would never “demand” he drop out. I have too much respect for Rick Santorum. However, I do “wish” he and Newt could work out a deal.
The youngest credible one (is that Santorum?) should be lined up as veep, because that’s usually the heir apparent to the candidacy from the party of a president who has served two terms. Perry is the only one who had been a governor, so might make sense as the immediate candidate, but his showing in the polls is very anemic, and throwing support to him might not boost him over Mitt Romney.
Newt, military and DOD employee can't get or can lose their top secret clearance for having an affair. One of the main reasons is they can be blackmailed. How can voters be sure you only had two affairs and not susceptible to blackmail? Andrea Mitchell
Newt, the obamas look like the ideal family, while you have had issues with your trustworthiness? How do the voter know they can trust you?
Here would be an interesting simulation to run.
Since everybody on this forum seems to think like Kansas Girl: “Conservatives have to make a move and unite behind a single candidate NOW or Romney is going to be the nominee even though he is uwanted by 75% of the GOP voters.”,
What if everybody stayed in and actually allowed each state to go through the primary process and primary voters voted like the Rasmussen poll predicts, the Romney: 28.5%Gingrich: 23% Paul: 18% Santorum: 11.5%. in every state.
Would Romney then have enough committed delegates to win the nomination by virtue of winning the winner-take-all states with 28.5% plurality of the votes plus 28.5% of the proportional state delegates, or would the conservative opposition to Romney have more delegates at the Republican National Convention?
The reason to project this out would be to convince conservatives that they do not need to run over the Romney cliff like a bunch of lemmings, just because Romney has the 20-something percent of Republicans who are liberals in his pocket.
G and S would be a big government conservative ticket.
Newt’s past is so checkered it looks like the floor of a large diner.
I’d like to know more about the particular Catholic diocese that took Newt in, which on the surface looks like a sincere move because they vet new members to try to ensure they have repented of their past sins. Is it one known for loosey goosey leftist philosophy, or does it honor the mainstream church beliefs and keep itself relatively free of scandal?
Don't know the “best” position for each person, BUT woke up this morning thinking that the team approach is the answer to unite the party. Give representation to each facet of the anti-O force. Maybe each candidate and previous potential candidate could just fill out a form state which area they feel most comfortable tackling.
StaceinTexasStace in Texas
‘NEW SC POLL: Romney 29%, Gingrich 25%, Paul 20% Perry 9% passing Santorum trending up! @GovernorPerry #SC’ #perry2012 #sc
1 hour ago
Newt is a Reagan conservative. He will govern as a conservative, he did before. This lack of trust is not warranted.
Nonsense, Newt would govern as a Reagan conservative like he did before. The establishment types are still mad at him because he oppose the Senior Bush on tax increases. He is a conservative hero, always has been. Clinton was being impeached for obstruction to justice for lying to the grand jury, not for having an affair.
Perry’s the key. I supported him and believe that he’s got the money, talent and infrastructure to win, but at some point he’s got to back out. Without coalescing around a single opponent Perry’s just helping Romney with conservatives splitting their votes.
At this point we need to prepare for Romney’s nomination.
Perry has been the most consistent, consistently low. He needs to drop out and quit siphoning off the other votes.
Perry is at 6% in the new Rasmussen poll, up only one point from the previous Rasmussen poll.
Both Ricks need to get out NOW to stop the Mittwitt madness. He needs to be stopped now in South Carolina before he has a chance to win SC & use that momentum to take Florida.
His conversion is important aspect of his life to me too. OTOH the Bible is full of how God has used sinners to do His will. (You wouldn’t believe the number of people who have gone ballistic over my tag line!)
I’m more concerned with God’s plan....Lots of prayers to open our collective eyes. Know that if we follow it we will be blessed. Pray that someone connected to the vine will speak our loudly and clearly....We need another Aaron.