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Newt Claims To Be More Electable than Rick ... But he is not (Unfavorability ratings will doom Newt)
Weekly Standard ^ | JAN 16, 2012 | WILLIAM KRISTOL

Posted on 01/17/2012 10:28:06 AM PST by Qbert

Newt Gingrich has told voters in South Carolina not to vote for Rick Santorum because Santorum can’t defeat either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama. In particular, Gingrich made an appeal to conservatives: “If you're a conservative, just look at the polls. I am the only candidate capable of stopping a moderate from winning the nomination.” Indeed, Gingrich claimed, “If you vote for Sen. Santorum, in effect you’re voting for Gov. Romney to be the nominee because he's not going to beat him. And the only way you can stop Gov. Romney for all practical purposes is to vote for Gingrich. That's just a fact and it's a mathematical fact now.”

Well, here's a fact, indeed a mathematical fact: In the first actual vote held this year, Rick Santorum came from behind to double Newt Gingrich's vote in Iowa, and then in New Hampshire, Santorum fought Gingrich to a draw. It's pretty nervy—even by Newtonian standards!—for Gingrich to say that mathematics requires voters to abandon Santorum for Gingrich.

As for the polls: In national polls among Republicans, Santorum ties Gingrich. In South Carolina, Gingrich (from neighboring Georgia) is, it's true, ahead of Santorum—by single digits. But if we’re looking at polls (as Gingrich urges we do), there’s one important set of numbers conservatives need to keep in mind.

Two national polls conducted in the last few days, by CNN and Fox, asked the core question of whether voters had a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidates. Romney is at 43 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable in one poll, and 45 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable in the other, giving him an average of a +4 percent favorability. President Obama is at 49 percent favorable to 49 percent unfavorable and 51 percent to 46 percent, for a +2.5 percent average. Santorum isn't far behind, with numbers that would put him within striking distance in a fall campaign, especially given that he's still less well known: He's at 31 percent favorable to 34 percent unfavorable, and 31 percent to 36 percent, for an average of -4 percent.

So, there are three candidates at +4 percent, +2.5 percent, and -4 percent, all well within competitive bounds of one another. Newt Gingrich? He's at 28 percent favorable to 58 percent unfavorable in one poll, 27 percent to 56 percent in the other—averaging -29.5 percent. Yes, -29.5 percent.

Newt Gingrich should never be underestimated. Perhaps he could even recover from a -29.5 percent unfavorability rating. But it’s quite a stretch for Gingrich to claim that he has an obviously better chance to win than Rick Santorum, either against Mitt Romney or Barack Obama.

(emphasis added)

TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: billkristol; gingrich; newt; rinospew; romneyspew; santorum; teamromney; williamkristol
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To: Qbert
Kristol always does this-He does not inspire me, Newt does.

How can they really claim to know what the American people think.

Who trusts the media these days? Libs need them. Normal minds see them as part of the problem/misinformation.

I like to listen to Rush though Newt inspires me more.

41 posted on 01/17/2012 11:47:52 AM PST by Christie at the beach
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To: Christie at the beach

Sorry for the double post.

42 posted on 01/17/2012 11:50:16 AM PST by Christie at the beach
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To: Maceman

Maceman is right I believe. We are a conservative nation and only one candidate has that passion in his bones and can articulate it making simple statements on complex issues and that is Newt. The only one that inspires. A revolutionary who has studied America and it’s history for decades and knows how God founded us and protects us and Newt totally believes in our greatness. That is what makes people jump to their feet and cheer even when they are alone in their living room with their tv.

43 posted on 01/17/2012 11:55:50 AM PST by maranatha
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To: Qbert; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; stephenjohnbanker; DoughtyOne; calcowgirl; Gilbo_3; NFHale; ...
RE :"Newt Gingrich should never be underestimated. Perhaps he could even recover from a -29.5 percent unfavorability rating. But it’s quite a stretch for Gingrich to claim that he has an obviously better chance to win than Rick Santorum, either against Mitt Romney or Barack Obama."

I never understood that argument either.

44 posted on 01/17/2012 11:55:58 AM PST by sickoflibs (You MUST support the lesser of two RINOs or we all die!)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Classic Santorum in last night’s debate- “I get 30 seconds? He got 2 minutes!” Wahhhhhhh wahhhhh... what a little girl he is.

45 posted on 01/17/2012 11:58:55 AM PST by petercooper (2012 - Purge more RINO's.)
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To: patriot08

Not at all. Politics is much about perception. Gingrich is un-telegenic, so very yesterday, and loads of baggage that is enough to fit into a 747. Besides, he loses the female vote in spades. Debate performance with $1.6m FreddieMac albatross around his neck?- Just wait till Obama unleashes his $1B campaign war chest. Newt doesn’t have a snowman’s chance in hell of beating Obama. The unfavorable percentages speak for themselves. It’s Santorum or bust!

46 posted on 01/17/2012 12:00:04 PM PST by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Qbert

Bill “Tokyo” Crystal towing the party line to the end.

47 posted on 01/17/2012 12:00:41 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2
That's the truth. Gingrich is the one making them nervous, and his biggest "unfavorability ratings" come from media who despises him as much as they ever hated Palin. That would be the ticket to make liberal heads explode.

Love your tag line.

48 posted on 01/17/2012 12:14:11 PM PST by Durus (You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality. Ayn Rand)
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To: Qbert
I thought Santorum was a conservative too - until I read this post on FR by Windflier.

I wonder if Santorum is insane or a devoted Socialist!!

"Rick Santorum's voting record: What A Big Government Conservative Looks Like

NEA Voted for taxpayer funding of the National Endowment for the Arts.

Voted against a 10% cut in the budget for National Endowment for the Arts.

Bankruptcy Voted for a Schumer amendment to make the debts of pro-life demonstrators not dischargeable in bankruptcy.

Defense and Foreign Policy

Voted for the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).

Voted against requiring the President to certify that the CWC is effectively verifiable.

Voted against requiring the President to certify that that Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, North Korea, China, and all other countries determined to be state sponsors of terror have joined CWC prior to submitting the instrument of ratification.

Voted for the START II Treaty.

Voted to allow the sale of supercomputers to China.

Voted to ban anti-personnel landmines.

Voted against increasing defense spending offset by equivalent cuts in non-defense spending.

Voted to require that Federal bureaucrats get the same pay raises as uniformed military.

Voted to allow food and medicine sales to state sponsors of terror and tyrannical regimes such as Libya and Cuba.

Voted to limit the President’s authority to impose sanctions on nations for reasons of national security unless the sanctions were approved by a multilateral regime.

Voted against requiring Congressional authorization for military action in Bosnia.

Voted to give $25 million in foreign aid to North Korea.

Voted to weaken alien terrorist deportation provisions. If the Court determines that the evidence must be withheld for national security reasons, the Justice Department must still provide a summary of the evidence sufficient for the alien terrorist to mount a defense against deportation.

Voted against delaying the India Nuclear until the President certified that India had agreed to suspend military-to-military exchanges with Iran.

Voted against the Conventional Trident Missile Program.


Voted for Richard Paez to the 9th Curcuit (cloture).

Voted for Sonia Sotomayor, Circuit Judge.

Voted for Richard Holbrooke to be Ambassador to the UN.

Voted for Margaret Morrow to be District Judge.

Voted twice for Marsha Berzon to the 9thg Circuit.

Voted for Mary McLaughlin to be District Judge.

Voted for Tim Dyk to be District Judge.

Voted for James Brady to be District Judge.


Voted against National Right to Work Act. Voted for Alexis Herman to be Secretary of Labor.

Voted for mandatory Federal child care funding.

Voted for Trade Adjustment Assistance. Voted twice in support of Fedex Unionization. Voted for minimum wage increases six times here here here here here and here.

Voted to require a union representative on an IRS oversight board.

Voted to exempt IRS union representatives from criminal ethics laws.

Voted against creating independent Board of Governors to investigate IRS abuses.


Voted to require pawn shops to do background checks on people who pawn a gun.

Voted twice to make it illegal to sell a gun without a secure storage or safety device.

Voted for a Federal ban on possession of “assault weapons” by those under 18. Voted for anti-gun juvenile justice bill.


Voted for funding for the legal services corporation.

Voted twice for a Congressional pay raise.

Voted to impose a uniform Federal mandate on states to force them to allow convicted rapists, arsonists, drug kingpins, and all other ex-convicts to vote in Federal elections.

Voted for the Specter “backup plan” to allow campaign finance reform to survive if portions of the bill were found unconstitutional.

Voted to mandate discounted broadcast times for politicians.

Voted for a McCain amendment to require state and local campaign committees to report all campaign contributions to the FEC and to require all campaign contributions to be reported to the FEC within 24 hours within 90 days of an election.


Voted against increasing the number of immigration investigators.

Voted to allow illegal immigrants to receive the earned income credit before becoming citizens.

Voted to give SSI benefits to legal aliens.

Voted to give welfare benefits to naturalized citizens without regard to the earnings of their sponsors.

Voted against hiring an additional 1,000 border partrol agents, paid for by reductions in state grants.


Voted against a flat tax.

Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for Medicare prescription drugs.

Voted to increase tobacco taxes to fund health insurance subsidies for small businesses.

Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an $8 billion increase in child healh insurance.

Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an increase in NIH funding.

Voted twice for internet taxes.

Voted to allow gas tax revenues to be used to subsidize Amtrak.

Voted to strike marriage penalty tax relief and instead provide fines on tobacco companies.

Voted against repealing the Clinton 4.3 cent gas tax increase.

Voted to increase taxes by $2.3 billion to pay for an Amtrak trust fund.

Voted to allow welfare to a minor who had a child out of wedlock and who resided with an adult who was on welfare within the previous two years.

Voted to increase taxes by $9.4 billion to pay for a $9.4 billion increase in student loans.

Voted to say that AMT patch is more important than capital gains and dividend relief.


Voted against food stamp reform.

Voted against Medicaid reform.

Voted against TANF reform.

Voted to increase the Social Services Block Grant from $1 billion to $2 billion.

Voted to increase the FHA loan from $170,000 to $197,000. Also opposed increasing GNMA guaranty from 6 basis points to 12.

Voted for $2 billion for low income heating assistance.


Sponsored an amendment to increase Amtrak funds by $550 million.

Voted to use HUD funds for the Joslyn Art Museum (NE), the Stand Up for Animals project (RI) and the Seattle Art Museum’s Olympic Sculpture Project (WA).

Voted to increase spending on social programs by $7 billion.

Voted to increase NIH funding by $1.6 billion.

Voted to increase NIHnding by $700 million.

Voted to for a $2 million earmark to renovate the Vulcan Monument (AL).

Voted for a $1 billion bailout for the steel industry.

Voted against requiring that highway earmarks would come out of a state’s highway allocation.

Voted to allow Market Access Program funds to go to foreign companies.

Voted to allow OPIC to increase its administrative costs by 50%.

Voted against transferring $20 million from AmeriCorps to veterans.

Voted for the $140 billion asbestos compensation bill.

Voted against requiring a uniform medical criteria to ensure asbestos claims were legitimate.

Voted to increase community development programs by $2 billion.

Spending and Entitlements

Voted to make Medicare part B premium subsidies a new entitlement.

Voted against paying off the debt ($5.6 trillion at the time) within 30 years.

Voted to give $18 billion to the IMF.

Voted to raid Social Security instead of using surpluses to pay down the debt.

Health Care

Voted to allow states to impose health care mandates that are stricter than proposed new Federal mandates, but not weaker.

Voted twice for Federal mental health parity mandates in health insurance.

Voted against allowing consumers the option to purchase a plan outside the parity mandate.


Voted to increase Federal funding for teacher testing.

Voted to increase spending for the Department of Education by $3.1 billion.

Voted against requiring courts to consider the impact of IDEA awards on a local school district.


Voted to allow the President to designate certain sites as interim nuclear waste storage sites in the event that he determines that Yucca Mountain is not a suitable site for a permanent waste repository. Those sites are as follows: the nuclear waste site in Hanford, Washington; the Savannah River Site in South Carolina; Barnwell County, South Carolina; and the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee.

Voted to make fuel price gouging a Federal crime."

19 posted on Saturday, January 14, 2012 5:09:53 PM by Windflier

49 posted on 01/17/2012 12:19:02 PM PST by LADY J
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To: Durus

I believe this idea that it would be impossible for Newt to defeat Obama is all media hype. Newt would eat Obama alive in a debate and mop up the floor with him. Anybody with half-a-brain at this point. will be able to beat Obama. The media will never tell you the truth, it’s simply not in them — it would appear even FOX is falling for the lies.

50 posted on 01/17/2012 12:20:24 PM PST by evangmlw
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All of Santorum’s ratings taken together show he’s a consistent conservative. You can make some of the same arguments about Gingrich and what he’s supported.

51 posted on 01/17/2012 12:34:02 PM PST by bjcoop
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To: Durus

You are so right. Newt is the worst nightmare of the MSM, RNC, and the political leadership in congress. If elected he would have no problem actually doing something to cut the size and scope of the US govt. Until and unless we do that nothing will change. The GOP leadership does not want change any more than the Dems. That is why they are so hell bent on nominating Willard.

52 posted on 01/17/2012 12:38:16 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Qbert

Bill Kristol is go-along-to-get-along DC-insider kind of guy, a middle-of-the-road, occasionally conservative apparatchik. He likes Romney for the simple reason that Romney is a reflection of himself and the same go-along-to-get-along DC-insider, middle-of-the-road, occasionally conservative apparatchik-like persona.

Newt has negatives, sure. So does everyone. But let’s reduce this to the basics. If the Tea Party wants to influence the GOP and make it more conservative, more reflective of the values that built America, who does it need to force on the GOP? Who does it need to lead the boarding party that climbs up the side of the DC tax ship in the harbor and throws the boxes of tea (i.e. tax and spend policy priorities) overboard? Mitt the Mild and Middle of the Road or Newt the Knife.

People, this is not a difficult dilemma. It is not a dilemma at all.

As for electability, Mitt is more electable? Mitt is just as electable as the Brooklyn Bridge is sellable. He might attract a small handful more of a certain kind (and only a certain kind!) of independent voter, but his nomination will depress the conservative vote hugely. His nomination will signal the GOP’s willingness to go into the darkness of socialism more slowly, but just as surely. That is all. His nomination will be the second coming of McCain, only worse. And the fallout will be worse.

53 posted on 01/17/2012 12:40:36 PM PST by Belteshazzar (We are not justified by our works but by faith - De Jacob et vita beata 2 +Ambrose of Milan)
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To: Steelfish


And you think that weasly little RINO voter, Ricardo Santorum with his crooked nose, is going to bring in the women’s votes?
A powerful, smart, confident MAN is what is attractive to women.

The vest projects a mama’s boy who likes to avoid playing softball with the neighbor kids and stay in the kitchen with his mother, so he can lick the frosting from her cooking bowl.

Best take another look at your boy:


Voted AGAINST increasing the number of immigration investigators:

VOTED AGAINST HIRING AN ADDITIONAL 1,000 BORDER PATROL AGENTS, paid for by reductions in state grants.


Voted to allow illegal immigrants to receive the earned income credit before becoming citizens.

SANTORUM: Trim Social Security now- even if painful.



Voted to increase the social services block grant from $1 BILLION to $2 BILLION

VOTED TO RAID SOCIAL SECURITY instead of using surpluses to pay down the debt.

Voted to impose a uniform federal tax mandate on states to force them to allow convicted , rapists, arsonists drug kingpins and all other ex-convicts to vote in federal elections.


We need a MAN who is afraid of noone.
Santorum needs to drop out for the sake of this country.

54 posted on 01/17/2012 12:45:31 PM PST by patriot08 (TEXAS GAL- born and bred and proud of it!)
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To: NavyCanDo
When he turned his broadside against Romney and only Romney, he lost favor fast.

Romney's PAC attack ads in IOWA did it and Newt only went after Romney after that and rightly so
55 posted on 01/17/2012 12:55:48 PM PST by uncbob
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To: NavyCanDo
Kind of a mute point. Unless Newt can pull off some sort of a hail Mary in the last 10 seconds of the game with the ball on his own 1 yard line, then Newt like Cain, Like Huntsman, like Bachman, will be out of it. And he has nobody to blame but himself. He needed to go back to what he way doing that got him in the top spot in the first place, making Obama the bad guy. When he turned his broadside against Romney and only Romney, he lost favor fast.

It is not a moot point that Romney's superPac attacked first, falsely, and ferociously.

Moreover, Romney lies. He knows EVERYONE in the superPac working for him. They are former staff members.

He also lies about not being able to influence them. The law simply says that Romney can't be in charge of that Pac. It doesn't say that he can't reject what they say, demand they tell the truth, name them by name and call them liars and cheats.

Romney is deception personified: Newt is right to call him a liar. Romney is a liar.

56 posted on 01/17/2012 1:01:33 PM PST by xzins (Newt Gingrich Cleaned Up In Last Night's Debate! Awesome Performance!)
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To: maranatha

A co-author and architect of the “Contract with America”, Gingrich was at the forefront of Republican Party success in the 1994 congressional election. In 1995, Time named him “Man of the Year” for his role in ending 40 years of majority control by the Democratic Party. During his four years as House speaker, the House enacted welfare reform, passed a capital gains tax cut in 1997,

BooksNonfictionGingrich has authored or co-authored 17 non-fiction books since 1982.

The Government’s Role in Solving Societal Problems, Associated Faculty Press, Incorporated. January 1982 ISBN 978-0-86733-026-7
Window of Opportunity. Tom Doherty Associates, December 1985. ISBN 978-0-312-93923-6
Contract with America (co-editor). Times Books, December 1994. ISBN 978-0-8129-2586-9
Restoring the Dream. Times Books, May 1995. ISBN 978-0-8129-2666-8
Quotations from Speaker Newt. Workman Publishing Company, Inc., July 1995. ISBN 978-0-7611-0092-8
To Renew America. Farrar Straus & Giroux, July 1996. ISBN 978-0-06-109539-9
Lessons Learned The Hard Way. HarperCollins Publishers, May 1998 ISBN 978-0-06-019106-1
Presidential Determination Regarding Certification of the Thirty-Two Major Illicit Narcotics Producing and Transit Countries. DIANE Publishing Company, September 1999. ISBN 978-0-7881-3186-8
Saving Lives and Saving Money. Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, April 2003. ISBN 978-0-9705485-4-2
Winning the Future. Regnery Publishing, January 2005. ISBN 978-0-89526-042-0
Rediscovering God in America: Reflections on the Role of Faith in Our Nation’s History and Future, Integrity Publishers, October 2006. ISBN 978-1-59145-482-3
The Art of Transformation, with Nancy Desmond. CHT Press, November 29, 2006, ISBN 978-1-933966-00-7
A Contract with the Earth, with Terry L. Maple. Johns Hopkins University Press, October 1, 2007. ISBN 978-0-8018-8780-2
Real Change: From the World That Fails to the World That Works, Regnery Publishing, January 2008. ISBN 978-1-59698-053-2
Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less: A Handbook for Slashing Gas Prices and Solving Our Energy Crisis, with Vince Haley. Regnery Publishing, September 2008 ISBN 978-1-59698-576-6
5 Principles for a Successful Life: From Our Family to Yours, with Jackie Gingrich Cushman, Crown Publishing Group, May 2009 ISBN 978-0-307-46232-9
To Save America: Stopping Obama’s Secular-Socialist Machine, with Joe DeSantis. Regnery Publishing, May 2010 ISBN 978-1-59698-596-4
FictionGingrich co-wrote the following alternate history novels and series of novels with William R. Forstchen.

1945 Baen Books, August 1995 ISBN 978-0-671-87739-2
Civil War Series

Gettysburg: A Novel of the Civil War Thomas Dunne Books, June 2003 ISBN 978-0-312-30935-0
Grant Comes East Thomas Dunne Books, June 2004 ISBN 978-0-312-30937-4
Never Call Retreat: Lee and Grant: The Final Victory Thomas Dunne Books, June 2005 ISBN 978-0-312-34298-2
Pacific War Series

Pearl Harbor: A Novel of December 8th Thomas Dunne Books, May 2007 ISBN 978-0-312-36350-5
Days of Infamy Thomas Dunne Books, April 2008 ISBN 978-0-312-36351-2
Revolutionary War Series

To Try Men’s Souls: A Novel of George Washington and the Fight for American Freedom, October 2009, ISBN 978-0-312-59106-9
Valley Forge: George Washington and the Crucible of Victory, November 2010, ISBN 978-0-312-59107-6

57 posted on 01/17/2012 1:02:11 PM PST by patriot08 (TEXAS GAL- born and bred and proud of it!)
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To: nikos1121
I’m rooting for THE BAMBINO!!!!

Me too....watching him slap down the Juanster last night was the best thing I've seen in a loooong while!

Loved Bret's expression at the end of it....priceless!!

Here's a recap if you want to see it again:

58 posted on 01/17/2012 1:04:28 PM PST by Las Vegas Ron (Rush Limbaugh = the Beethoven of talk radio)
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To: nikos1121
I’m rooting for THE BAMBINO!!!!

Hey, on second thought, maybe you should change that to Rambino!!!!

59 posted on 01/17/2012 1:06:39 PM PST by Las Vegas Ron (Rush Limbaugh = the Beethoven of talk radio)
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To: pgkdan
The only people who don’t yet have an unfavorabble personal opinion of Santorum are those who have not yet paid enough attention to him.

It's not going to work Gingrich has always been unlikeable. When he was in office, the Democrats didn't like him, the Republicans didn't like him and the Independents didn't like him. His staff didn't like him. He may be smart and he may be a good debater, but he is not a likeable person.

Obama did not get elected because he was smart or because he was a good debater. However, one of the keys to Obama's election is that he was very likeable, and the polls show this is still true.

If Republicans nominate a person who has one of the most tawdry personal histories in politics and who is a bastion of unlikeability, and who has on numerous occasions cozyed up to the worst of the ultra liberals supporting their progressive positions, they will get what they deserve.

60 posted on 01/17/2012 1:07:06 PM PST by Prokopton
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