Skip to comments.Three Takeaways From South Carolina
Posted on 01/22/2012 10:21:03 AM PST by neverdem
Given the rather decisive nature of the South Carolina Republican primary -- Newt Gingrich won by about 12 points -- we can be rather brief with the takeaways here.
1) There is no good news buried in here for Mitt Romney. None. As of this writing, Mitt Romney is leading in three counties in South Carolina: Charleston, Beaufort (Hilton Head) and Richland (Columbia). He lost fast-growing, coastal Horry County, home of Myrtle Beach, by 15 points. He lost Greenville and Spartanburg, in the upcountry, by similar margins. He lost Edgefield County by 40 points.
Romney likely lost all seven congressional districts, meaning that Gingrich probably swept the states delegates, and now leads in the overall count.
2) This is worse than George W. Bushs loss to John McCain in New Hampshire. John McCain caught Bush off-guard in 2000, but Bush was given an opportunity to regroup. He hadnt fired any major shots at McCain at that point, and was able to bury McCain beneath a torrent of attacks in South Carolina.
3) Analysts are kidding themselves if they say Romney is the inevitable nominee. Simply put, there are very few states where he can perform among the major demographic groups the way he performed in South Carolina and still expect to win. And remember, this is still in many ways the electorate that selected Christine ODonnell, Carl Paladino and Linda McMahon as its standard-bearers -- in very blue states with relatively moderate GOP electorates, no less.
Thats not to say that Romneys money and organization dont give him advantages -- they do. He remains the GOP front-runner, in my view, because it isnt clear how well Gingrich can survive the long haul. But theres a not-insubstantial chance, call it 35 percent, that Romney wont be the nominee.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
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“Thats not to say that Romneys money and organization dont give him advantages — they do”
He is right on that point. This where us Tea Party/grass roots people have to come in and support Newt. As someone retired and on a fixed income with Social Security a big part of my income I can give Newt $25 per week. If we all look at our finances and give what we can and help out personally I think we can win this thing. GO NEWT GO!
They aren't, what they are doing is calling Romney the inevitable nominee and hoping that it will stick and people will vote for him as the perceived leader.
After all, the MSM want him to run against 0bama too because he is guaranteed to lose to 0bama.
If Romney is the nominee, it will fracture the GOP permanently, a lot will stay home. After the milquetoast run of HW Bush, Dole, McCain and then Romney, the handwriting is on the wall.
So Speaker Newt won yesterday Among College Graduates as well as those not as fortunate in every income bracket under $200,000 per year.
And received over 100,000 more votes than McCain did in 2008.
Nutjob RP 8%
Newt Gingrich is a brilliant man with great ideas and a vision for our future. He has a clarity of vision, proven credentials, and the ability to lead and motivate the majority with conviction.
Perhaps, we should focus more on his achievements rather than character assassinations and mistakes he made along the way. Newts overall record shows he has done more to advance the cause of conservatism; and economic and job growth than any of his opponents.
Newts political achievements in Congress were accomplished because he consistently bucked Washington convention in order to get things done.
Americans, regardless of party, will vote for Gingrich over President Obama because he stands for ideas and results at a time when both parties have failed the American public
I keep thinking about what would happen if the Presidential race were between Romney and Obama and they debated: it would be dueling teleprompters!
They could read off each other’s. :~)
“Newt Gingrich is a brilliant man with great ideas and a vision for our future. He has a clarity of vision, proven credentials, and the ability to lead and motivate the majority with conviction”.
He may have all that, but he also has, according to Fox News, an approximate 57% unfavorable rating. Does not make me want to vote for him next week in Florida. We’ll see.
Actually, the number of retired Catholics and Jews in Florida may garner Santorum a second place finish in Florida. And we know Milt is not going to let Rick get out of the race so long as Rick serves a useful ‘anti-Newt’ purpose.
With just three states voting so far, what is the delgate count for each of the four remaining candidates going into Florida.
It would be the dullest, most packed full of lies, debate in the world. Obama would coast with Willard.
I wonder what his un-favorability rating was in SC “according to Fox News? Meh
Why do you care what his "unfavorable" rating is - usually done by the Democrats or RomneyBots? Vote for who you think is best for the country and who has the best chance of beating obama.
I may be wrong, but you give the impression that you'd rather vote for someone who met others' criteria than make your own judgment.
Romney's weaknesses, now that the Republican Establishment and their media spokesmen lost control of the message, are apparent. To say that they are revealed in his mishandling of the "tax return" and "explaining of Bain" is simply not adequate.
Even now, as was evident from Brit Hume's "analysis" last night, Romney's supporters wrongly conclude that the overwhelming defeat in SC was due to two or three zingers in "debates" by Gingrich and these surface "tax return" and "Bain" issues.
Such shallow analysis underestimates the wisdom and intelligence of SC voters. The "people" are way beyond that, and they are exhibiting a "spirit of liberty" (Burke's view of the colonists) perhaps unheard of since 1776, because their sense of urgency demands it.
Romney's weakness for the November task cannot be remedied by handlers or coaches. The strength needed for winning the battle of ideas for what he calls "the soul of America" must come from a deep and abiding understanding of the ideas of liberty, as well as an understanding of the poisonous well of ideas from which the opponents of those ideas have drawn.
Without such an understanding, the skill of the well-trained representative of the counterfeit ideas (Obama) may fool "the People" into continuing to surrender their liberty in exchange for the proverbial "pot of porridge."
Romney, as Krauthammer observed last week, has shown no such ability to explain the ideas of what is commonly referred to as "conservatism."
Gingrich has, and it has resonated with "the People" (as in, "We, the People").
Thanks for your response......actually my own judgement is that Newt cannot win, and perhaps Romney sits no better. My judgement is, however, that Newt has a tendency to crash and burn due to his wrathful demeanor. One must think he has a whole lot more enemies out there than other viable candidates. Sitting with and supporting Nancy Pelosi does not endear me to him in any way. This, IMO, goes to trust and I am not sure I have any for Newt.
He may have all that, but he also has, according to Fox News, an approximate 57% unfavorable rating. Does not make me want to vote for him next week in Florida. Well see.
According to Gallop, Obama has a 51% unfavorable
Newts will get better, Obama an Romney worse.
I agree with you.
The entire package of real reasons that Mitt lost was summed up in that exchange about his father and taxes when the audience booed him.
His response was “maybe” and it was followed with a nervous laugh and a deer-in-the-headlights look.
The Republican electorate saw the core of Mitt Romney, and it was weak and unappealing.
Democrat crossovers might account for Richland county, but the money was no help. Much of it was spent on robocalls and push pollsters — and when you get 5 of those calls in one hour for several nights running, you tend to get irritated.
I left my landline off hook until Saturday night. Now it's your turn, Florida!
Kathleen Sebelius vs. Religious Freedom She should be excommunicated.
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Thanks for the ping!