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ARG FL Poll (Romney 41%, Gingrich 34%)
American Research Group ^ | January 25, 2012

Posted on 01/25/2012 11:43:33 AM PST by Utmost Certainty

Mitt Romney has maintained his lead in the Florida Republican presidential primary. Romney leads with 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich with 34%, Rick Santorum with 9%, and Ron Paul with 7%.

In a similar survey conducted January 13-15, 2012, Romney was at 42% and Gingrich was at 25%.

A total of 17% of Republican primary voters say that they have already voted by absentee ballot or in early voting. Of this group of voters, Romney leads with 51%, followed by Gingrich with 39%, Paul with 6%, and Santorum with 4%. Among the 83% of the remaining likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads with 39%, followed by Gingrich with 33%, Santorum with 10%, and Paul with 7%.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: florida; polls; primaries

1 posted on 01/25/2012 11:43:37 AM PST by Utmost Certainty
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To: Utmost Certainty

Uh oh, where did that 6 - 8 pt. lead go. Please no Romney, PLEASE


2 posted on 01/25/2012 11:46:54 AM PST by GoCards (I am a Hobbit)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Outlier or ARG has caught a trend early. Too soon to tell which it is.


3 posted on 01/25/2012 11:50:02 AM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: Utmost Certainty

This poll seems like an aberration.


4 posted on 01/25/2012 11:50:52 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Newt: "Why vote for the guy who lost to the guy who lost to Obama?")
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To: Utmost Certainty

Most of The Polls I saw showed Romney leading Gingrich in South Carolina as late as last Saturday morning...


5 posted on 01/25/2012 11:51:13 AM PST by WayneS (Comments now include 25% MORE sarcasm for no additional charge...)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Republican presidential candidate and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich speaks during a campaign event billed as a Latin American Policy Speech at Florida International University on January 25, 2012 in Miami, Florida.

6 posted on 01/25/2012 11:53:09 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper (NEWT GINGRICH 2012)
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To: RoosterRedux

If by aberration you mean BS, then I agree.


7 posted on 01/25/2012 11:53:34 AM PST by JaguarXKE
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To: Utmost Certainty

I think the difference is between voters and likely voters, where Newt holds the lead.


8 posted on 01/25/2012 11:53:45 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Burke)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Good. Newt is surging. Just like S.C.


9 posted on 01/25/2012 11:54:41 AM PST by ILS21R (Never give up.)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Ras had newt up by nine yesterday, and other polls had newt in the lead, and there is no reason why mitt would be surging, this polls seems very fishy.


10 posted on 01/25/2012 11:55:46 AM PST by HerrBlucher (.)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius
Outlier or ARG has caught a trend early. Too soon to tell which it is.
Same thought here. This poll totally contradicts the Rasmussen, PPP, IA, and Quinnipiac polls. The FL Chamber of Commerce (who?) has it tied up. So either this poll is an outlier or as you said it's an early predictor of coming bad news.
11 posted on 01/25/2012 11:56:25 AM PST by TBBT
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius
Outlier or ARG has caught a trend early. Too soon to tell which it is.
Same thought here. This poll totally contradicts the Rasmussen, PPP, IA, and Quinnipiac polls. The FL Chamber of Commerce (who?) has it tied up. So either this poll is an outlier or as you said it's an early predictor of coming bad news.
12 posted on 01/25/2012 11:56:39 AM PST by TBBT
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To: GoCards

Am I the only one that thinks Santorum is running for Romney’s VP slot ???


13 posted on 01/25/2012 11:57:39 AM PST by 11th_VA (Keep your laws OFF my light bulbs !)
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To: Utmost Certainty

What is up with Drudge? Did it get hijacked by the Romney team.

Man. Talk about one sided.


14 posted on 01/25/2012 11:58:17 AM PST by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else.)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Its one of those slow on the uptick polls that while showing trending Newts way, will likely show a big swing if they do another.

From the looks of the article, they dont poll very frequently. The only other one was in early Jan. So likely they did this starting before SC.


15 posted on 01/25/2012 12:00:47 PM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: TBBT

Newt fans better pray that Newt has a good debate tomorrow night....


16 posted on 01/25/2012 12:00:47 PM PST by TBBT
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To: Utmost Certainty
Gingrich leads with 47% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 34% and Santorum with 8%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 47%, followed by Gingrich with 22%, Santorum with 10%, and Paul with 9%.

I don't see where ARG shows us the actual weighted, breakdown numbers in this poll.

17 posted on 01/25/2012 12:01:18 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Utmost Certainty

This is poopy.


18 posted on 01/25/2012 12:07:54 PM PST by pallis
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To: Utmost Certainty

Romney has been bombarding Florida with negative media for weeks. He is being blasted from all quarters, HARD.

Newt is just now hitting the air.

Never underestimate the power of the media.


19 posted on 01/25/2012 12:12:08 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: TBBT

ARG is the least accurate of pollsters...

That said, Romney has been carpet-bombing Florida with Negative media, and Newt just went up on the air.


20 posted on 01/25/2012 12:14:11 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Unlike other polls, half of the survey was conducted yesterday, after Monday night’s debate. It’s 600 Republican-registered likely voters. I can’t see a reason to discount it.


21 posted on 01/25/2012 12:18:13 PM PST by Praxeologue
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To: Kennard
Unlike other polls, half of the survey was conducted yesterday, after Monday night’s debate. It’s 600 Republican-registered likely voters. I can’t see a reason to discount it.

Ditto. Though a lot can change in 6 days.
22 posted on 01/25/2012 12:21:44 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: tcrlaf
ARG is the least accurate of pollsters...

That said, Romney has been carpet-bombing Florida with Negative media, and Newt just went up on the air.


Maybe... But they had S.C. pegged the night before the primary...
23 posted on 01/25/2012 12:22:03 PM PST by TBBT
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To: tcrlaf
ARG is the least accurate of pollsters...

That said, Romney has been carpet-bombing Florida with Negative media, and Newt just went up on the air.


Maybe... But they had S.C. pegged the night before the primary...
24 posted on 01/25/2012 12:22:03 PM PST by TBBT
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To: Utmost Certainty

Another damn nail biter.

GO NEWT GO.....


25 posted on 01/25/2012 12:22:22 PM PST by Gator113 (~Just livin' life, my way~..... GO NEWT GO.....!)
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To: Utmost Certainty

I am not a Romney supporter.

However, I don’t like the anti-capitalist tack Newt is taking against Romney.

I heard a snip on Rush this morning. Newt was on tape saying something to the effect that most of us don’t live off of our investments in the Cayman islands, we have to work, etc.

I thought that was really a commie slant and it gives me pause about supporting Newt.

I am no fan of Romney but I have no problem with him investing, profiting, and using the Caymans or any other legal means to keep as much of his money as possible. More power to him for that.


26 posted on 01/25/2012 12:24:27 PM PST by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: Persevero

I think Newt was just saying that to point out how out of touch Romney is with the everyday realities most people live in—that’s how I interpreted it anyway.

It’s a fair point.


27 posted on 01/25/2012 12:27:02 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: Persevero

Ok.

Now tell the general electorate that.

“Oh hey the potential POTUS shelters money in the Cayman Islands, but that shouldn’t matter to you!”.

It may be legal, but dont think for a moment that any large group of people will look at that like some sort of plus.


28 posted on 01/25/2012 12:30:53 PM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: Utmost Certainty

I prefer Newt over Romney but he’s got to quit this populist, eat-the-rich attitude he’s picked up.

Too many wealthy people are not our problem. The more wealthy we have, the better. There is no shame in being economically successful. Rather, it tends to indicate a person is smart, on the ball, and frugal.


29 posted on 01/25/2012 12:32:28 PM PST by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: Utmost Certainty

If true it will prove that Romney Money Can Buy Happiness. But I’m going to wait and see what Rasmussen has to say before I panic.


30 posted on 01/25/2012 12:35:03 PM PST by InterceptPoint (TIN)
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To: Persevero

Yeah, but I don’t think it was intended as class warfare rhetoric.

I want people to be successful and I think millionaires, etc. are a great thing.

But that doesn’t mean I want a private equity investment manager as my president lol.


31 posted on 01/25/2012 12:37:29 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: GoCards

“Uh oh, where did that 6 - 8 pt. lead go...”
Must be speaking to Pelosi.


32 posted on 01/25/2012 12:38:03 PM PST by duckman (Go Newt...)
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To: Persevero

I thought that was really a commie slant and it gives me pause about supporting Newt.

HELLO KITTY, MEOW!


33 posted on 01/25/2012 12:57:23 PM PST by billys kid (Everything in Massachusetts is illegal)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Without the internals to the poll it is hard to say what this means. Is this a survey of all voters? What is the time frame of this poll? Is it over a week?


34 posted on 01/25/2012 12:57:36 PM PST by Parley Baer
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To: Utmost Certainty

Newt’s attack on capitalism and his ties to Freddie Mac is not going to be received well by Florida voters.


35 posted on 01/25/2012 12:59:58 PM PST by GregH
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To: GregH

Except Newt never attacked capitalism.


36 posted on 01/25/2012 1:02:22 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: Utmost Certainty

2012 Florida Republican Primary
Florida GOP Primary: Gingrich 41%, Romney 32%

Newt is Leading so this thread should wake up.
Newt 2012!!!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/2012_florida_republican_primary


37 posted on 01/25/2012 1:05:13 PM PST by OPS4 (Ops4 God Bless America!Jesus is Lord)
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To: Parley Baer

Election 2012: Republican Presidential Primary
National Poll: Gingrich 35%, Romney 28%, Santorum 16%, Paul 10%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_republican_presidential_primary


38 posted on 01/25/2012 1:08:46 PM PST by OPS4 (Ops4 God Bless America!Jesus is Lord)
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To: OPS4

The Ras poll was gathered Sunday. The ARG poll is Monday and Tuesday, half of which is after Monday evening’s debate. 600 Rep-registered likely voters


39 posted on 01/25/2012 1:12:29 PM PST by Praxeologue
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To: Utmost Certainty

He did attack those who received money through their investments as doing no work.


40 posted on 01/25/2012 1:13:55 PM PST by GregH
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To: JaguarXKE

What’s exactly what I mean. Wondered how much Romney had to pay ARG for them to produce this result.


41 posted on 01/25/2012 1:14:36 PM PST by RoosterRedux (Newt: "Why vote for the guy who lost to the guy who lost to Obama?")
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To: OPS4

The second Ras poll you link was gathered on Monday, prior to the debate.


42 posted on 01/25/2012 1:16:52 PM PST by Praxeologue
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To: Kennard

With all due respect to your stunning insight, do you honestly believe Gingrich did so bad (or Romney so good) in Monday’s debate to change the numbers to anywhere near this extent?


43 posted on 01/25/2012 1:17:31 PM PST by traderrob6
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To: billys kid

“HELLO KITTY, MEOW!”

Don’t be ridiculous. Newt is just a man. If he is messing up he needs to be called on it.


44 posted on 01/25/2012 1:19:48 PM PST by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: Utmost Certainty

The sad fact is, that in Today’s America, a very large number of Sheeple will do EXACTLY what the Magic Talking Box they spend hours staring at tells them to do.

If it tells them to buy Coke over Pepsi, they buy coke.
If it tells them to buy the latest book Oprah pimps, they buy the book.
If it tells them they should HATE someone, they hate that person.

Remember how it was that Obama defeated the media hero Hillary in the first place?


45 posted on 01/25/2012 1:22:01 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: traderrob6
The poll results are what they are.

As for the debate, I was concerned that Newt got a beat down from Romney and didn't adequately respond, partly due to Williams and partly due to Newt losing focus. Hopefully he will bounce back tomorrow night.

46 posted on 01/25/2012 1:25:41 PM PST by Praxeologue
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To: Persevero

I agree. I think it was last night that one of the network news programs opened with, “...Romney payed 15% tax rate compared to Obama’s 25% tax rate...”

The first thing that came to my mind was...”Geeze, Obama doesn’t manage his own finances any better than he manages the country’s.”


47 posted on 01/25/2012 1:29:05 PM PST by mouske
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To: traderrob6
do you honestly believe Gingrich did so bad (or Romney so good) in Monday’s debate to change the numbers to anywhere near this extent?

I'm not the Freeper you were asking, but i too think that could be the case. In totality, maybe the debate was a wash but my guess is that the part which stood out to most was Romney hitting Gingrich hard on possible influence peddling. Gingrich didn't answer it particularly well and it came early in a debate that started at 9 pm here in Florida (except for the panhandle which is in CST). So a lot of people may have turned it off at 9:30 to get ready for bed, leaving them with the impression that Romney scored some significant blows on Gingrich. Furthermore, adding in the anti-Newt media (including Fox News which has quite a few Republican viewers) and having Rubio coming out defending Romney and going after Newt doesn't help much either.

In any event, i think Gingrich will need to return to form in the next debate or else i fear Romney could pull out a victory here.

48 posted on 01/25/2012 1:35:43 PM PST by Humbug (the media rule the world and they know it....)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Gingrich needs to take Florida...there are no proportionate distro of delegates.. it’s winner-take-all.


49 posted on 01/25/2012 1:38:41 PM PST by ScottinVA (Liberal logic: 0bamacare mandate is acceptable... but voter IDs are unconstitutional.)
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