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Consensus of Polls Shows Romney Up in Florida
The New York Times ^ | January 28, 2012, 9:43 pm | NATE SILVER

Posted on 01/28/2012 8:05:56 PM PST by Mariner

You can find pretty much every species of poll in Florida right now.

There are traditional polls and automated polls, Internet polls and partisan polls, academic polls and commercial polls.

There are polls where voters checked a box. There are polls that were reported on Fox.

There are polls that called the voter’s house. There are polls where voters clicked a mouse.

Though the numbers were here and there, the outcome was the same everywhere.

Unless there is a major glitch, Mitt Romney will beat Newt Gingrich.

---Break---

Instead, if there is a candidate with upside potential in Florida, it might be Rick Santorum. The most recent polls have shown better results for him, and he now is projected to 15 percent of the vote, up from 11 percent earlier this week.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: gingrichpolls
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Santorum's support increasing from 11% to 15% while Gingrich is static at approximately -7%.

This after he went home to attend to his family and after having spent no money on ads.

These polls look like lagging indicators to me. As people are realizing the vicious and coordinated corruption of the GOP-e and it's sympathetic media there is a backlash emerging.

Newt by 1-2%.

1 posted on 01/28/2012 8:06:06 PM PST by Mariner
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To: Mariner

Myth Remulak is going to suffer another humiliation next week.


2 posted on 01/28/2012 8:09:52 PM PST by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: Mariner

Go Rick! The most conservative within 4 remaining.


3 posted on 01/28/2012 8:10:15 PM PST by entropy12 (Socialism has failed everywhere tried. It breeds mediocrity, corruption, nepotism & poverty for all)
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To: Mariner

They’re all RINOs.


4 posted on 01/28/2012 8:10:22 PM PST by elhombrelibre ("I'd rather be ruled by the Tea Party than the Democratic Party." Norman Podhoretz)
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To: entropy12

Make that “GO HOME” Rick.


5 posted on 01/28/2012 8:12:13 PM PST by Mountain Mary (Awaken Oh America...)
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To: Mariner
I’m not convinced by your analysis. Santorum's support increasing by 4 points is just beyond the usual margin of error, so one recent poll showing that change isn't very significant. I don't see it as a lagging indicator. Santorum has a long way to go to be a factor in this race. He won’t win FL, much less the GOP nomination. But I guess he needs to be thoroughly convinced that he can’t win.

His staying in FL only helps Romney, it doesn’t help him.

6 posted on 01/28/2012 8:19:38 PM PST by Victoria Delsoul
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To: Mariner

Those dang debates seem to matter. Newt should come out swinging in the next debate. There is apparently only one debate in February. He must win that debate!!! Newt was able to win SC because of a debate. He can win the nomination with the February debate.


7 posted on 01/28/2012 8:22:25 PM PST by napscoordinator (Go Newt! Go Patriots (America's Team)! America's is going the right direction in 2012!!!)
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To: Victoria Delsoul
"His staying in FL only helps Romney, it doesn’t help him. "

I agree wholeheartedly. Santorum should formally withdraw from the race before the election in FLA.

He will not win a state primary. Not one.

He will not have enough money to continue his campaign.

He will not gain sufficient delegates through proportional allocation to win the nomination.

He knows this as well as everyone else.

Upon the fair presumption that he DOES know this, why does he stay in the race?

Certainly not to benefit the conservative movement.

8 posted on 01/28/2012 8:26:29 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner
"Consensus of Polls Shows Romney Up in Florida"

Yep, just like they were in South Carolina!

9 posted on 01/28/2012 8:27:00 PM PST by harpu ( "...it's better to be hated for who you are than loved for someone you're not!")
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10 posted on 01/28/2012 8:27:08 PM PST by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: Mariner

I like Rick, but he really needs to drop out.

(now I expect to hear the two annoying Unicorns...NOOOOOO Charlie, lets go to Candy Mountain)


11 posted on 01/28/2012 8:31:22 PM PST by FreeAtlanta (Liberty and Justice for ALL)
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To: Mariner

Then be write his campaign and tell him so! Hope without action won’t get us anywhere in this election cycle.

Info@RickSantorum.com

Don’t forget that Rick Perry was making statements about going on to Florida prior to dropping out just a few days before the vote in South Carolina. We might be able to convince Santorum to do the same, but only if we make our voices heard!


12 posted on 01/28/2012 8:32:35 PM PST by Cato in PA (1/26/12: Bloody Thursday)
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To: Mariner

Several sources saying 30% of the people in some of these polls are stating that they could change their mind before they go to vote.

Romney’s lead is a mile wide and paper thin.


13 posted on 01/28/2012 8:35:47 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: Mariner

14 posted on 01/28/2012 8:37:48 PM PST by McBuff
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To: entropy12
Santorum is no fiscal conservative, just socially.

I've been saying for months that he belongs at home with his family. Right now he's just where he needs to be; if he's not an establishment spoiler, he should've hung it up.

15 posted on 01/28/2012 8:37:48 PM PST by newzjunkey (a FL win returns Romney to the "inevitability" path.)
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To: Mariner

Actually all the latest polls show Romney’s lead increasing. Including a PPP poll today +8. And several published on Friday anywhere from Romney +7 to +9 or so. Those seem to be trending Romney, not Newt.

We saw the poll trends in SC last week, and they turned out to be pretty accurate. I am afraid this will be the week Newt lost his shot at the presidency.

But, keep the faith. This race has been a roller coaster. And I don’t see Romney winning by 8-9. I think it will be close, and Newt could still pull it out. But quit calling for Santorum to get out. If Newt can’t win it on his own strength, then he can’t beat Obama anyway. And Santorum has other priorities right now. We all need to pray for his daughter.


16 posted on 01/28/2012 8:39:32 PM PST by gswilder
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To: Cato in PA
I did read Sanatorium said neither Newt nor Romney had asked he drop out....so i don't think he'll consider until Newt mentions so..and Newt may very well not do so.

In any case Sanatorium is going to do as he feels for his run regardless of what some might want otherwise. Not so sure public pressure will help...especially over the Internet as so many can make demands on either side of the aisle and look like something they are not.

17 posted on 01/28/2012 8:41:35 PM PST by caww
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To: greeneyes

Unfortunately, the poll internals aren’t good news for Newt. 56% of the undecided people who saw the debate are saying they are now inclined to vote Romney. The pollsers say this is the first time they have seen Romney get a post debate bump. Newt usually is the one who gets the bump after a debate.

Like I said, Newt can still win. Polls just don’t look good right now.


18 posted on 01/28/2012 8:47:41 PM PST by gswilder
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To: newzjunkey; mickie
You are 100% correct in your observation.

But be aware that the Sacred Order of the Perpetually Offended will be rising up in sanctimonious wrath against you because you now dasn't say one political word against Santorum as long as his family member is ill.

Leni

19 posted on 01/28/2012 8:49:51 PM PST by MinuteGal
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To: Mariner

Anybody voting for Santorum has GOT to be a conservative.

They should REALIZE that Santorum, although a great guy who would make a great President, simply lacks the machine and money Gingrich has,

By voting for Santorum, they are ASSURING a Romney victory.

Is THIS what they REALLY want????


20 posted on 01/28/2012 8:55:16 PM PST by ZULU (LIBERATE HAGIA SOPHIA!!!!!)
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To: McBuff

That is some fine art.


21 posted on 01/28/2012 8:55:24 PM PST by ansel12 (Romney is unquestionably the weakest party front-runner in contemporary political history.)
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To: Mariner
NY Slimes poll "report"?

NO THANKS!


22 posted on 01/28/2012 8:59:09 PM PST by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
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To: ZULU

for the entire election up to about a week or two before Iowa Santorum polled 2% or so, which means nearly all his supporters now supported either Palin, Perry, or Cain in the past... and all three of those are now supporting ... GINGRICH.

That should tell them all they need to know. STOP listening to the media, STOP listening to Romney’s lying ads, throw that those lying BS mailers from Romney in the trash and LISTEN to those you formally supported! Then get down there and vote for NEWT!

GO NEWT!


23 posted on 01/28/2012 9:13:43 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: gswilder
But quit calling for Santorum to get out. If Newt can’t win it on his own strength, then he can’t beat Obama anyway. And Santorum has other priorities right now. We all need to pray for his daughter

Absolutely! And there are some real game changers in the wind tonight, Cain endorsement, Giuliani against Romney, Sarah saying she thought Newt could beat Obama. Lots going on.

Then there's the New Dixie Strategies Poll that has Gingrich Up By .38%

(Jan 23-25) 2,567 likely voters.

24 posted on 01/28/2012 9:22:50 PM PST by Kenny
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To: Victoria Delsoul
Rick picks up two out of three swayed by the winds of the GOP-E attack dogs.
They simply wont turn to the Mittiot in numbers.
Santorum needs to do the right thing. Sorry to hear about his daughter.
25 posted on 01/28/2012 10:38:21 PM PST by bksanders (Old Gets Older the Older I Get)
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To: greeneyes
"Romney’s lead is a mile wide and paper thin.
I like that. A lot!

I expect anybody with clout and moxie to pony up by Monday.
Too much at stake here. Though it is not the end game, it's big.
I wonder which way the wind bloweth that paper…

26 posted on 01/28/2012 10:48:50 PM PST by bksanders (Old Gets Older the Older I Get)
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To: FreeAtlanta

Rick will make a great VP! He’s been around the track and won’t be a deer in the headlights that the media will easily overwhelm.


27 posted on 01/28/2012 11:39:41 PM PST by byteback
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To: newzjunkey

None of them are real fiscal conservatives. I do not expect national debt to be reduced by any of them. Only the rate of growth may improve over president Zero. Even president Reagan’s spending tripled in 8 years. Newt’s claim of having balanced budgets for 4 years is a lie since he includes funds raided from social security account into general budget. And Paul is unelectable and weird on foreign policy & drugs. Basically we are screwed. Just a matter of degree.


28 posted on 01/28/2012 11:45:55 PM PST by entropy12 (Socialism has failed everywhere tried. It breeds mediocrity, corruption, nepotism & poverty for all)
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To: Mariner

It’s pretty simple. If conservatives want a conservative to be President, they need to make up their mind. Newt and Rick are hurting each other. Based on national polls, Rick needs to step aside. He’s waiting for Newt to implode, but that’s not going to happen. Newt has come back twice and he has the financial backing to go the distance if he needs to. Conservatives who support Rick, must do the strategic thing and move over to Newt. It looks a conservative coalition is starting to form. In 2008, it was Romney and Huckabee cancelling each other out to open it up for the Moderate McCain by default. McCain was weak in the debates because a moderate cannot make the strong enough arguments. Newt will make the strong conservative arguments. We not only need to defeat Obama, but change the countries mindset so that we never make the mistake again of electing another Obama.


29 posted on 01/28/2012 11:58:04 PM PST by larryleo (We all need to get Newtered!)
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To: MinuteGal

LOL. SOPO: Sacred Order of the Perpetually Offended.... I like that! We see many of them here, in FR, as well as in many groups that are based on some ethnic or religious identity...


30 posted on 01/29/2012 12:07:45 AM PST by paudio (Newt often pissed on conservative principles, but we need him to beat 0bama so we look the other way)
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To: entropy12

[Newt’s claim of having balanced budgets for 4 years is a lie since he includes funds raided from social security account into general budget.]

Not exactly. I remember quite well those years. There was a budget surplus. The amount of the surplus IIRC was just a little more than the social security excess. Hence the budget was “balanced”.

Clinton campaigned on the best way to spend the surplus, and after the about the first week, no one even acknowledged that the surplus was a lie.

During that time the excess of social security coming in over the amount sent out was invested in special issue Treasuries. Once the Treasuries were purchased this excess raised the amount of the national debt.

So the more money there was coming in for social security, the more the national debt went up. Also during that time, every time there was some money available to apply to the debt, the Democrats in congress would have all sorts of suggestions about expenditures.

Greenspan kept telling them the money needed to be applied to pay down the debt.


31 posted on 01/29/2012 12:16:50 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: greeneyes

I do not remember the exact details, so you may be right. However I will research national debt at beginning of Reagan’s 1st term and at end of his 2nd term. My guess is national debt went up significantly. Same thing during Clinton’s 8 years. Of course Zero is breaking all records on national debt explosion.


32 posted on 01/29/2012 12:36:42 AM PST by entropy12 (Socialism has failed everywhere tried. It breeds mediocrity, corruption, nepotism & poverty for all)
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To: entropy12
Yeh, the thing is the national debt has been going up since the 50’s. But you have to keep in mind that not all of that was due to spending.

For example, the excess social security funds received are not spent, but invested. Once invested that is reflected as part of the national debt, because the government owes it to participants at a future date. I think I read somewhere that 60% of the national debt is actually owed to Americans.

Government accounting is very confusing, and I only know a little of it. I have actually been thinking of taking a course, just so I could double check stuff a little better myself, since we have a news media that can't be counted on.

At any rate the national debt is different from the budget, and just because the debt goes up doesn't necessarily mean the budget wasn't balanced. During the Clinton/Newt years the situation was better, cause I looked some of that stuff up about 6 months ago. Just can't remember all of it now.

33 posted on 01/29/2012 12:50:52 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: greeneyes

Here is the yearly history of National Debt:

09/30/2010-— 13,561,623,030,891.79 Obama
09/30/2009-— 11,909,829,003,511.75— /
09/30/2008-— 10,024,724,896,912.49-—\
09/30/2007-— 9,007,653,372,262.48-——\
09/30/2006-— 8,506,973,899,215.23———\
09/30/2005-— 7,932,709,661,723.50 GW Bush
09/30/2004-— 7,379,052,696,330.32———/
09/30/2003-— 6,783,231,062,743.62-——/
09/30/2002-— 6,228,235,965,597.16——/
09/30/2001-— 5,807,463,412,200.06-—/
09/30/2000-— 5,674,178,209,886.86—/
09/30/1999-— 5,656,270,901,615.43-—\
09/30/1998-— 5,526,193,008,897.62——\
09/30/1997-— 5,413,146,011,397.34-——\
09/30/1996-— 5,224,810,939,135.73 BJ Clinton
09/29/1995-— 4,973,982,900,709.39-——/
09/30/1994-— 4,692,749,910,013.32——/
09/30/1993-— 4,411,488,883,139.38-—/
09/30/1992-— 4,064,620,655,521.66—/
09/30/1991-— 3,665,303,351,697.03-—\
09/28/1990-— 3,233,313,451,777.25——\
09/29/1989-— 2,857,430,960,187.32-——\
09/30/1988-— 2,602,337,712,041.16———\
09/30/1987-— 2,350,276,890,953.00-———\
09/30/1986-— 2,125,302,616,658.42 Bush41 &
09/30/1985-— 1,823,103,000,000.00 Reagan
09/30/1984-— 1,572,266,000,000.00———/
09/30/1983-— 1,377,210,000,000.00-——/
09/30/1982-— 1,142,034,000,000.00——/
09/30/1981-— 997,855,000,000.00——/
09/30/1980-— 907,701,000,000.00-—/

There is not a single year when debt did not go up.
In other words there were no balanced budgets ever
during this period.


34 posted on 01/29/2012 1:04:23 AM PST by entropy12 (Socialism has failed everywhere tried. It breeds mediocrity, corruption, nepotism & poverty for all)
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To: greeneyes

I don’t think any of the surplus social security funds are invested. They have been spent, every dime of them. The social security account has IOU’s from the US Treasury in the form of Treasury bonds. Those surplus funds can not be cashed in from outside banks or other sovereign countries because that is not where they are invested. They have been spent all in the general budget.


35 posted on 01/29/2012 1:09:42 AM PST by entropy12 (Socialism has failed everywhere tried. It breeds mediocrity, corruption, nepotism & poverty for all)
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To: Mariner

Gd bless Rick Santorum, a good man and a strong conservative! He doesn’t need to get behind someone else this early. He’s a strong contender with far less negatives. And he did the right thing, going to be with his precious baby girl in the hospital. His love of his family is palpable and even if he’s not your favorite, you have to give him credit for being the kind of good man he is.

Donated more tonight in honor of his baby Bella, may his coffers and her health soar to strength.


36 posted on 01/29/2012 1:10:41 AM PST by Yaelle
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To: entropy12

You have to know how much excess Social Security was in that debt and subtract it out. During that period, even if you had a balanced budget, and stuck to it, the debt would still go up due to excess Social Security payments.

Plus you would have to check that budget against actual expenditures to see if there was any spending of more than was budgeted.

Budget, spending, and debt are 3 different things.


37 posted on 01/29/2012 1:12:46 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: entropy12
[I don’t think any of the surplus social security funds are invested. They have been spent, every dime of them. The social security account has IOU’s from the US Treasury in the form of Treasury bonds. Those surplus funds can not be cashed in from outside banks or other sovereign countries because that is not where they are invested. They have been spent all in the general budget.]

By law the excess funds have to be used to purchase special issue treasuries which are not negotiable. They are not part of the general fund. They can only be redeemed to use for Social Security payments. When cashed they lower the national debt.

This is held as part of intergovernmental debt. Meanwhile Congress has been busy spending money and the Treasury has been busy printing money and borrowing money from other countries to pay for the spending.

It's kinda like saving $6000 a year in a savings account, but charging 60,000 on a bunch of credit cards for years and years. The money is still there in the account, but your net worth will eventually be negative, your ability to pay the bills will run out, and a bankruptcy court will take your savings to help pay your debt.

38 posted on 01/29/2012 1:55:24 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: entropy12

There are 2 figures which make up the national debt. One is public debt that is owed to people or countries who have purchased our Treasuries.

The other is intergovernmental debt. Things like Social Security excess are an example of this.

Public Debt + Intergovernmental Debt = National Debt.

If you will look at the Public Debt during the Clinton years,IIRC you will see that the Public debt did go down during that period.


39 posted on 01/29/2012 2:45:07 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: Mariner
I am seeing the same denial on FR that we saw in the last days of Election 2008, people ignoring the obvious polling data, which is usually very accurate close to the end.

I say Romney by 4-6 points, big win unfortunately for him, but Gingrich will live to fight another day. He will stage a come back after this disappointment.

40 posted on 01/29/2012 7:29:57 AM PST by nwrep
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To: Mariner
I am seeing the same denial on FR that we saw in the last days of Election 2008, people ignoring the obvious polling data, which is usually very accurate close to the end.

I say Romney by 4-6 points, big win unfortunately for him, but Gingrich will live to fight another day. He will stage a come back after this disappointment.

41 posted on 01/29/2012 7:30:09 AM PST by nwrep
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To: Mariner
MYTH ROMNEY got 31% here in 2008, and that was before most people had any idea of what a whack job he is.

Just don't see him doing any better than last time.

42 posted on 01/29/2012 7:33:24 AM PST by Rome2000 (MYTH ROMNEY IS A MORMON MELCHIDEZEK HIGH PRIEST)
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To: Mariner

If santorum’s votes get him 20%, he is on the rise and a contender. He’s a good man, a true conservative, and would make an excellent President. This is a good thing. Romney looks more phony bit by bit, and even if he won FL’s delegates, it is NOT over for Newt. But this is great news for Santorum, who is not as risky a conservative.


43 posted on 01/29/2012 7:34:51 AM PST by Yaelle
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To: larryleo

Newt and Rick are not hurting each other!

Both took from Romney’s pile in SC!


44 posted on 01/29/2012 7:37:20 AM PST by Yaelle
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To: entropy12; greeneyes

No, it means that the budget surplus in the years there was one was not applied to paying down the debt.

http://www.federalbudget.com/


45 posted on 01/29/2012 7:40:28 AM PST by Rome2000 (MYTH ROMNEY IS A MORMON MELCHIDEZEK HIGH PRIEST)
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To: napscoordinator
Those dang debates seem to matter. Newt should come out swinging in the next debate. There is apparently only one debate in February. He must win that debate!!!

Florida votes on Tuesday the 31st. Day after tomorrow. The debates are over.

46 posted on 01/29/2012 7:43:52 AM PST by Drew68
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To: TexasFreeper2009

I just WISH the people of Florida would LOOK AT who is endorsing who here.

Romney - FOX News (Roger Ailes), Carl Rove, the Bushes, Dana Perrino, Bob Dole, Chris Christie, George Will, Charles Krauthammer, John McCain, Ann (I love Chris Christie) Coulter,Charlie Crist, etc. etc.

A BIG Pack of RINOS and the people who helped CREATE the mess that helped put a Marxist Muslim in the White House. They DON’T represent CHANGE in Washington!!! They represent the SAME kind of BANKRUPT Political, economic and social policies which have driven America down the road to destruction.

Gingrich - PERRY, HERMAN CAIN, SARAH PALIN - among many others. People who are committed to CHANGING and SHAKING UP the GOP and Washington Establishments and STOPPING the collusion of RINO Republicans with the far left of the Democrat Party.

ITS A NO-BRAINER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


47 posted on 01/29/2012 8:56:36 AM PST by ZULU (LIBERATE HAGIA SOPHIA!!!!!)
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To: Rome2000

There are 2 parts to the National Debt. Public Debt and Intergovernmental Debt.

Public Debt + Intergovernmental Debt = National Debt

During the Clinton/Republican Congress years, there WAS a decrease in the PUBLIC Debt.

Public Debt represents the Treasuries that individuals and countries have purchased.

The excess Social Security payments(for example) are invested in special NON-NEGOTIABLE Treasuries. Once invested they become part of the intergovernmental debt.


48 posted on 01/29/2012 10:25:45 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: Rome2000

OK, if the budget surplus was not applied to reducing debt as you are saying, where did it go? I am assuming the only other place it went was spent somehow. If true how can they claim a budget surplus when it was not used to reduce debt?


49 posted on 01/29/2012 11:03:36 AM PST by entropy12 (Socialism has failed everywhere tried. It breeds mediocrity, corruption, nepotism & poverty for all)
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To: greeneyes

Correct


50 posted on 01/29/2012 11:20:08 AM PST by Rome2000 (MYTH ROMNEY IS A MORMON MELCHIDEZEK HIGH PRIEST)
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