Skip to comments.Rasmussen in FL: Romney 44, Gingrich 28
Posted on 01/29/2012 8:01:41 AM PST by TBBT
Five weeks ago, this might have been a game changer. Is this a case of too little, too late?
Atlanta businessman and former presidential candidate Herman Cain endorsed Newt Gingrich Saturday night at a West Palm Beach Country Republican gathering after two months of wavering on whether he would offer his support to a fellow candidate.
The endorsement comes just three days before the crucial Florida primary, by far the largest state to vote so far in the GOP sweepstakes, and could help Gingrich energize tea party support. Gingrich campaign has flagged since his upstart, double-digit victory over front-runner Mitt Romney in the South Carolina primary a week ago.
I had it in my heart and mind a long time ago to endorse Gingrich, Cain said in a surprise appearance at the dinner. Speaker Gingrich is a patriot, Speaker Gingrich is not afraid of bold ideas, and I also know that Speaker Gingrich is
going through this sausage grinder. I know what this sausage grinder is all about. I know that hes going through this sausage grinder because he cares about the future of the United States of America.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
“Will Jim ask freepers to stay home in November?”
This isn’t a cult, dude. No man gives me my marching orders.
I will prob. vote Romney but will send no money and will not have sign in front of house, no bumper sticker and absolutely no walking the trenches. I have no eagerness to wake up on election day and vote Romeny
I heard a portion of a George Soros interview(I think he was overseas). In this excerpt he said that there was very little difference between Obama and Romney and that neither side was excited about the election. Soros predicted that this will be a boring election due to the lack of excietment. I’m not sure if he predicted an Obama reelection but I believe he may have, but that’s only because Obama’s his guy.
I haven’t decided what I intend to do as yet. In the end, I may do as you in hopes that Romney will hold true to he promise to repeal Obamacare. It’s more than likely an empty promise on his part, but it is something at least. After last Thursdays’s debate, I absolutely despise Romney.
It truly appears to me that the country will need to get a lot worse off before enough people wake up and demand something better.
So how did that Romney “win” in Iowa work out? You have to be an idiot not to see what is going on here.
I agree with that. Especially on thursday night.
Putting the cart ahead of the horse eh? A fight to win doesn’t mean crying home after the first swing.
I’m for Newt too. Besides, Trump would not enter the race if Newt wins the nomination. Even if he did I’d be voting for Newt but I know he wont.
That poll was actually on the 16th. By the 18th-20th, every poll including Rasmussen had Gingrich in the lead.
So what changed in two days?
Yes it did because Newt had a kick a$$ debate two days before SC primary. Unfortunately in Florida Newt had bad debates (two of them). That is the big difference between SC and FL.
“If Romney wins we lose in the form of a progressive who insists his policies are “conservative”.”
So absolutely correct you are as the Leftist RINO’s have been busily redefining Conservatism over the past number of years to fit their Leftist agenda. They want the word Conservative to define them, and their goals. They want to fool all the people all the time.
If Romney is the GOP it marks the end of the Republican Party.
It marks the end of you not seeing through what the GOP has really become; you are remembering a GOP that no longer exists. It took FAR longer than I care to admit for me to start actually seeing the ring of scum floating around the top of the GOP bathtub. I actually had a glimmer of hope in 2010, but the Republican "corrupt bastards club" managed to use the tea party movement for their own aggrandizement, then proceeded to kick them in the balls and enlist help from their collegial chums in the "other" party to shut down that "small-government rabble."
I agree, and have said it before. Newt pleaded nolo contendere at the debate when Romney fired off a hail of “resigned in disgrace” at him. He should have refuted that on the spot. You have the floor, a nationally televised debate, that’s no time to be providing a bibliography entry called newt.org.
Several people on FR jumped on me for suggesting that seniors in FL get their input from the tv, not the internet; but PPP comes to the same conclusion. Seniors are breaking for Counterfeit Mitt.
It seems that way watching the last two debates.
I Hope this poll is wrong.
Not interested in H. Ross Perot this time?
Yeah... no cheering in one and Romney-stacked in the other. Are people just suppose to forget the SC debate?
Rubio needs to get lots of calls reminding him of this. I agree that a Rubio endorsement for Newt today or tomorrow would help tremendously.
That's what they said last time around. Didn't they all get seated anyway?
Well, you really jumped to a huge presumptive conclusion. Some of my best friends are jews and blacks and hispanics and American Indians. But, actually, I do believe most north easterners, especially whites, are idiots and they move down south to get away from the crap they created and then end up creating the same mess in the south. If they love what they believe is so great where they came from, they should stay there. So screw you. Yeah, as a matter of fact I do have a natural gas well in my back pasture and I have a longhorn mantle ornament over my grand fireplace.. Does that fit your pistol?
Yeah what he said, ditto
Rush warned us this kind of thing was going to happen. They're trying to demoralize both the Conservative Florida voters and us! If these numbers were true, why are Romney supporters crashing Gingrich events...hmmmn?
I'll say it again, I smell a fresh, steaming pile of B.S. in these polls. These don't pass the smell test.
“Trump is not a happy camper with Romney”
Well you could fool me. I justed listened to Trump on Face The Nation and he spoke very highly of him. I am still choking back the vomit in my throat.
Yeah... no cheering in one and Romney-stacked in the other. Are people just suppose to forget the SC debate?
They shouldn’t but they do. SC seems a lifetime ago and it was only last week. lol.
It reminds me of the scene from Braveheart where William Wallace realizes that the Knight following him is actually Robert the Bruce.
Florida has a lot of old people who are forced to get their news from TV. They still wait until 6pm to watch the CBS evening news as they always have. They do not live in the internet age and we're not going to be able to show them how to come to FreeRepublic between now and tuesday.
Television ads are what's needed.
Santorum dropping out wouldn't hurt either. Romney enjoys facing the split opposition. It's to his benefit.
If Santorum is a true conservative, he needs to immediately stop his run and endorse Newt Gingrich. Immediately! And Newt should give him a post in the Administration.
Santorum needs to acknowledge the writing on the wall. He needs to put his ego aside, get out, and endorse the individual who can win for conservatism!!!!!!!
You are correct. Although the wailing and gnashing of teeth around here serves as a beneficial catharsis, the outcome will not be affected.
He just might with a wedgie like Santorum in there.
Doubt the polls at your own peril. The fact is, they are rarely wrong (if ever). They’ve been pretty accurate so far this year and there is no reason to believe they are faulty in Florida.
That’s insane! There’s nothing conservative about Trump, just as there isn’t a conservative bone in Romney’s body. Let’s not panic! “It ain’t over till it’s over!” Isn’t that what General Washington said at Valley Forge? As a matter of fact, I think he got on bended knee and prayed about it. Seems I saw a painting about that somewhere.
I’m with you on this one. There was good reason Romney couldn’t face Trump as moderator. Trump would open him up like a can of beans and put his butt on the hot coals!
Look closely at the right column under penalty and totals.
Although I believe Newt is down a little in FL, I am going to have to call “Bullsh*t” on this poll showing Romney almost DOUBLING him.
If anyone believes Romney is going to beat Gingrich in FL by almost 2:1, I have some Oceanfront property in Colorado to sell you.
You know, why is it we regularly give the Left reasons to laugh their a$$es off at us? A couple of B.S. polls come out, and FReepers are throwing Newt under the bus, and wringing our hands. I’m embarrassed reading these spineless post by fellow FReepers.
We are our own worst enemy. How Freaking sad!
I won’t vote for Mittens, but I won’t stay home. I’ll be in a contested House district and I’ll do what I can to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the Speaker’s chair.
So we lose Fla? Romney needs 1,245 delegates to get the nomination. Newt will win Georgia, Texas, Alabama, TN, KY and Minn (unless Bachmann endorses Newt) I do think Santorum will get out soon. He doesnt have the money. Nev. is a wild card. Romney is not going to breeze his way through this..we are making noise and being heard. The media fears us, the establishment fears us. We are the revolution! there may very well be a brokered convention. I say FIGHT! DAMN THE TORPEDOES AND FULL SPEED AHEAD! we have Cain, Perry, Palin, Bob McFarland, Jim Robinson, JC Watts (Oklahoma) Thomas Sowell, Art Laffer and maybe..just maybe..Rush will swing our way. LET’S ROLL!
He has already endorsed Romney.
Hush your mouth! That kind of talk won't allow the doomsayers to get any leverage.
Okay, for the umpteenth time already TBBT, will you PLEASE stop trying to make Santroum the scapegoat in all of this?
Also, with this poll showing Romney at 44, how does 28+15(Highest polling number for Santorum) equal greater than 44?
I posted this last night on the voting demographics of FL. Newt is losing both the Seniors and Hispanic vote by nearly 2-1 margins. Those two groups are NOT the base of Santorum’s support, which is mostly in North FL.
When Newt was ahead by 8 in FL, Santorum had about the same level of support, and there wasn’t any complaining going on. But now that Newt is down 8 again, even though Santorum hasn’t really moved in the polls, you want to put the blame on him? Nice try, but it ain’t gonna fly.
“From another thread on FL Voting Demographics:
Do you actually live in FL?
Judging from all the comments referring to Santorum as a POS, I think not.
So lets try this again to explain the voting Demographics for the state of Florida:
Theres two major voting blocks that compose a majority of FL GOP Voters:
1. Senior Citizens (I.E. over 65)
2. Hispanic Voters
Theres Tea Party and Grassroots folks merged in there between the two, but they may up a smaller, yet distinct group themselves, which is the group Gingrich currently carries pretty handedly over Romney.
Now, when Mitt and Newt have taken their turn being on top, its because each of the two groups tend to vote in a sort of majority union. For example, the Hispanic vote split will be about 2-1 in favor of the perceived winner. Likewise, the Senior vote will be close to that or 60-40 in favor of the winner.
These two groups have shifted back and forth. Newt had them on Monday before they moved back to Mitt. Because of the unison thing, youve seen an 8 point lead for Romney turn into an 8 point lead for Newt and vice-versa. The key to winning FL is winning these groups.
Santorums share of the pie is small. About 12%. Based on current polling, a split out vote might look like the following:
Were Santorum to drop out, Newt would need 2/3 of Santorum supporters just to pull back to even with Romney. But Romney would probably get the other 1/3, pushing him a point or two higher, meaning Newt still couldnt get to Mitt on Santorums voters alone.
The key to winning FL (like I have said before) is winning the Senior vote and the Hispanic vote. The Evangelical vote, while still distinct in FL, is not large enough to deliver the state.
And heres the other problem. Even if Santorum dropped out and Newt was able to hold on by the edge of his seat to take the state in a nail-biter by getting enough of Santorums voters, it would most likely mean that Romney dominated the Hispanic vote. If thats the case, the MSM will run with the mantra that Gingrich is weak with Hispanics in anticipation of the NV Caucuses and AZ primary next month. While polls show close races in both states, that will change depending on the FL results and breakdown.
Santorums support has not changed in FL in almost 3 weeks. It has remained around the 11-13% range. When Newt was getting over 40%, Santorum was in the 11-13% range, and now that Newt is polling in the low 30s, you want to put the blame on Santorum even though he is still in the same 11-13% range? This doesnt make any logical sense.
Newt had an 8 point lead in FL when he was leading Seniors and Hispanics. For now, that isnt the case. If he turns it around before Tuesday, he will once again swap places with Romney and carry the state by 6-7 points. But regardless of whether Newt wins the state or not, it is not dependent on where Santorum finishes, because whether Newt wins or loses FL, Santorum will still get about 12% and no more.
Things look bleak right now in FL, but Im not going to let you people try and make Santorum a scapegoat. Like I said in SC, he and Newt have different bases they both appeal to, and as SC showed, Santorums 17% in SC did not harm Newt from taking the state by double digits.
Lastly, even though FL is a closed GOP primary, many former Northeastern Republicans live here. Rudy got 15% and Romney got 31% last time, and not taking into account the GOP voters that describe themselves as liberal that voted for John McCain last time in his 36% amount, this puts the liberal/moderate faction of the GOP in FL close to 50%. McCain won the FL primary in 2008 because he dominated the Hispanic vote, despite losing the Senior vote to Romney.
This is why between now and Tuesday, the most important groups to pay attention to are Seniors and the Hispanics.
Please people....let’s not loose hope...we have a long way to go!!!! I know this is going to sound stupid, but....I have that feeling in the pit of my stomach that tells me everything is going to be OK. I started to feel it about 2 months ago....I was listening to Newt around that time and all the sudden....I just knew....I knew Newt Gingrich was the right guy.
I felt this same thing the whole time my son was in Iraq, my husband was freaking out with worry...but I had that peace in my gut....he would be OK...and he was. After 2 tours, he came home just fine. I do not think he was any better than any of our fine young men and women that gave their precious lives for us, I am just saying...God gave me a inner peace and he is doing it again in this election. Just pray and trust, and maybe you will feel it too!
And while this may turn out to be true, it’s the only poll that has it this big. Ras has been in the tank for the elite for a LONG time.
“Hush your mouth! That kind of talk won’t allow the doomsayers to get any leverage.”
I’m beyond sick of these gutless posts! “Oh no, woe is us...a poll has Newt down...we’re doomed!”
And we joke about the DUmmies? Grow some onions people!
Supposedly, up to 40% of voters have done so already by early voting. Who knows what that might mean. Polls now may be meaningless.
And if Trump runs, might as well have a couple other indies as well.. perhaps Palin and Ron Paul. Let`s at least make the impending Obama landslide entertaining.
Oh, you mean like the SC polls?
Spoke with a, probably, typical elderly Floridian yesterday. She’s been using her computer for about 15 years. Has no idea how to get news off of it. Doesn’t know how to switch a radio station. She depends on TV news.
Says “well we were going to vote for Newt, but did you know he had ex wives?. . . Romney has a good family! I hope he doesn’t appoint czars, if he appoints czars, well . . . But did you know Newt was removed from his seat?”
Doesn’t matter that this woman excuses her own son’s and her husband’s extramarital affairs. Doesn’t matter that Newt admits wrongdoing and acts repentant, or that Romney already has czars, because Ann Curry has spoken and the Blitz of ads has done it’s mind control over the masses.
Of course, I argued a good case and she promised to rethink, but that’s not the point. Romney knows what he’s dealing with in Fla. Newt needs to get ahead of him in his thinking. A few good debates and endorsements are just not going to be enough.
Anyway, it’s Sunday.
Let’s pray, pray, pray for our country.
Yes. If Mitt needs the other 50 at the convention, no doubt in my mind they will seat them.
Sat., February 4, 2012
Nevada binding caucus 3 RNC, 12 CD and 13 AL
Maine nonbinding caucus 3 RNC, 6 CD and 15 AL
February 7, 2012
Colorado nonbinding caucus 3 RNC, 21 CD and 12 AL
Minnesota nonbinding caucus 3 RNC, 24 CD and 13 AL
Missouri nonbinding primary 3 RNC, 24 CD and 25 AL
Tue., February 28, 2012
Arizona closed primary 29
Michigan closed primary 30
Sat., March 3, 2012
Washington nonbinding caucus 3 RNC, 30 CD and 10 AL
Tue., March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)
Alaska binding caucus 3 RNC, 3 CD and 21 AL
Georgia semi-closed primary 3 RNC, 42 CD and 31 AL
Idaho binding caucus 3 RNC, 6 CD and 23 AL
Massachusetts semi-closed primary 3 RNC, 27 CD and 11 AL
North Dakota binding caucus 3 RNC, 3 CD and 22 AL
Ohio semi-closed primary 3 RNC, 48 CD and 15 AL
Oklahoma closed primary 3 RNC, 15 CD and 25 AL
Tennessee open primary 3 RNC, 27 CD and 28 AL
Vermont open primary 3 RNC, 3 CD and 11 AL
Virginia open primary 3 RNC, 33 CD and 13 AL
It is so obviously just a game to them that it is impossible to take them seriously. A mere four years ago McCain and the establishment backing him were telling us how incompetent Romney was. Now McCain and the rest come out supporting him as the only viable one. Until they can come up with something substantial about him that has changed in four years, other than that he may be better at campaigning, why should we believe anything they say? They think we are stupid I guess.
Does anyone know what happens if a Presidential candidate gets ill or for some reason must drop out AFTER the convention has nominated him? Does the VP candidate just run in his place, or??? I have wondered about this for a long time.
Santorum can claim conservatism - I want to see it in action when it will actually cost ‘him’ something! Rhetoric and holier than thou attitude only goes so far - the proof is in the pudding. Either he’s a patriot or not. Either it’s about our country or Santorum. It’s a ‘put up or shut up’ moment for Santorum. Like our soldiers in battle - it’s about winning against evil/enemies at the risk of their own demise. Totally unselfish and God bless them all! And this will not literally kill Santorum - only his pride.
The very least he can do is STOP attacking Newt if he makes the decision to stay in the race. And STOP aligning him with Mitt!