Posted on 01/29/2012 10:36:59 AM PST by Steelfish
NBC/Marist Poll: Romney Up 15 Over Gingrich In Florida
Domenico Montanaro
Mitt Romney may be on his way to a decisive victory in the Florida GOP primary Tuesday, according to a new NBC/Marist poll.
Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 points, 42 percent to 27 percent in the crucial state. Rick Santorum is third with 16 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 11 percent. Just 4 percent said they were undecided. "The bottom line in all this is Romney's sitting in the driver's seat going into Tuesday," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, who conducted the poll.
If Romney pulls off a victory of that magnitude, he could be on a glide path to the nomination. But there are warning signs for the Republican Party that the primary has taken a toll on Romney and the rest of the GOP field. Each of the candidates struggles in a general-election matchup with President Barack Obama in this swing state, especially with independents.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL POLL.) (CLICK HERE FOR POLL OVERVIEW AND MARGIN OF ERROR.)
How Romney wins: Consolidates supporters, women
Romney beats Gingrich and the rest of the field by winning broadly across many subgroups -- those who are not Tea Party supporters (52 percent), those who are liberal or moderate (49 percent), make more than $75,000 a year (49 percent), identify as "conservative" (47 percent), and, in particular with women.
There was a stark gender gap between Romney and Gingrich. Women said they preferred Romney by 47-26 percent over Gingrich. The gap is closer with men, but Romney leads with them as well, 38-29 percent.
"He's winning both," Miringoff said, "but runs up the score among women."
Romney also does well enough with Tea Party supporters, splitting the vote....
(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.msnbc.msn.com ...
This is how it was reported in a NY Times blog less than week ago: Since then the torrent of negative ads, the Seniors, Jewish and Hispanic vote have swung against Gingrich.
January 23, 2012 New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich By NATE SILVER 1:59 p.m. | Updated
"I had written on Saturday night, before the results of the South Carolina primary were known, that Mitt Romney could not necessarily bank on holding down a lead in Florida despite recently having had a double-digit advantage in the polls there.
These polls had not yet accounted for the large swing against Mr. Romney and toward Mr. Gingrich in state and national polls. The Gallup national tracking poll, for instance, now shows Mr. Romney at 29 percent and Mr. Gingrich at 28 percent, which represents a 23-point swing from 8 days ago when Mr. Romney led Mr. Gingrich, 37-13. And the swing against Mr. Romney in South Carolina — from a lead of about 12 points in the polls early last week to a loss by about that margin on Saturday night — was closer to 25 points.
Two new automated polls suggest that the swing in momentum — plus whatever additional gains Mr. Gingrich made from the favorable news coverage following his South Carolina win — are enough to have given him the lead in Florida.
The first poll, from Rasmussen Reports, puts Mr. Gingrich ahead by 9 points, 41 to 32. The second poll, from Insider Advantage, pegs Mr. Gingrich’s lead at 8 points. Both polls conducted all their interviews on Sunday in the immediate aftermath of Mr. Gingrich’s South Carolina victory."
I do not believe these polls. Mitt may win, but not by 15%.
Vomit @ this poll.
Newt needs 15 more and Santorum has 16%
Will Santorum become known as the next Nader?
Well, this IS PMSNBC polling...
The 21-point lead Romney has with women voters is something no candidate can easily overcome. Even if Santorum drops off, this does not mean a large chunk of the female vote will go to Gingrich. Gosh, who knew those chromosones will play a decisive role in American politics.
The only way Newt can get out of the hole is to apologetically advocate lower taxes for the wealthy.
I note that there is no date on this poll other than Jan 2012.
Will Santorum become known as the next Nader?
No because not every percent of his votes will go to Newt. The reason Newt is losing is because he did bad in the debates especially that stock slap that Romney did on him and he stood there with his mouth open. It was extremely damaging and made Newt look really bad. That is why he lost Florida and not anything with Santorum. Why he did not say SOMETHING, ANYTHING after that pounding is beyond me.
It should be a law that no woman be allowed to vote unless she is a Freeper.
Okay okay... that goes for the men too
Perhaps I’m not remembering correctly, but didn’t the polls also show mittens ahead of Newt in SC as well?
You are right. The accompanying pdf does not tell when the poll was taken.
Are the FL delegates winner take all?
That right there is horse crap!
Sorry for the strong language but these people are pissing me off more and more each day!
Hmmm....
Smells like spin.
Women went 36% for Newt vs. 30% for Mitt in S.C.
Nineteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution
Some things never change...
Yes, and Mitt told Santorum that government-run health care was “nothing to get upset about.”
Gingrich did not attack capitalism. Rush Limbaugh was, as usual, putting his mouth in motion before his mind was in gear.
Questioning someone’s business practices, especially when that person has made completely unfounded and misleading claims about the business, is perfectly legitimate and is not an attack on capitalism.
Well, unless you want to pretend to believe it is.
RomneyCare = ObamaCare = CommieCare = taxpayer funded abortion = death panels = socialism = tyranny. Romney still brags about RomneyCare TODAY!! He would like all 50 states to implement similar socialist plans. These are the indisputable facts and that’s really all you need to know about Mitt Romney.
Mitt Romney has now bought off Florida Attorney General PAM BONDI, and her mission as Romney’s new National Healthcare CZAR is to head up a National Healthcare Task Force to impose socialist RomneyCare-like plans on all fifty states. They claim to be doing this as a tenth amendment “states rights” effort, but they fail to take into consideration that they must have the consent of the governed before imposing unwanted socialist systems on we the people. Doesn’t matter if it’s federal or state, it’s still SOCIALISM!! And a state forcing its government approved and controlled top-down socialist program on its citizens against their will, or else, especially with federal backing is FASCISM!! TYRANNY!! It is unwanted, unnecessary and UNCONSTITUTIONAL!! We the people are the SOVEREIGNS!! Together, we can put a stop to this!!
Ronald Reagan warned us that the socialists would try to impose socialism on America through socialist healthcare. Well, here it is. A so-called Republican now wants to impose a socialist healthcare system on us, only he calls it a “conservative free-market program.” Well, if it’s conservative free-market, why does it use federal and state tax dollars and why does the state have to FORCE it down our throats?
A vote for Romney is a vote for the Socialist States of America!! Don’t let it happen!!
The tea party rose up to resist this tyranny!! The tea party says: Force SOCIALIST healthcare down our throats, we shove it up your DONKEYS next election!!
Now is the time. Just do it!!
That’s a good analysis. How Newt’s once lead over Romney came crashing down to make it a 15% lead over him can only be attributable to a spectacular flame-out in the Jacksonville debates. Newt was utterly unprepared, he looked tired, and was slumping on the podium. The torrents of negative ads, almost 4-1 just buried him. With non-stop anti-Newt political commentariat after an expected Romney landslide on Tuesday, it remains to be same whether Newt can regain his money and momentum. NV and MI are Romney territory.
That is a problem we have had for many years. The truth is that Romney is a handsome man, and many people vote for that characteristic. The taller, leaner, better looking candidate tends to take the day. That is probably the only reason I think that Romney is more likely to beat Obama than Gingrich.
Yes, at one point prior to the debates. The final poll results, however, had Gingrich in the lead. Each one of them. Turned out the polls were correct in outcome (they were off by the final percentage though).
Yes, you got that one right. Rush dumped all over Newt on this and he was forced to retract. There are times when Rush speaks without thinking. And then the rest of talk radio picks up from him. Levin, Hannity etc.
I guess I didn’t see Newt’s attacks as attacks on insider capitalism. Capitalism that says I and my buddies get special treatment because we have access to the inside, but you Mr. or Miss entrepreneur just starting out - No soup for you!
This is the same theme Palin articulated, and it works. His execution sucks, but there’s still time to tweak it to defeat the blind trust candidate Romney.
But I thought the Jews hate Mormons. So why are Jewish Seniors flocking to Romney? Or do they see him as the the lesser of two evils? The Jewish vote in FL accounts for 6% of the population.
I saw lots of women at Newts gatherings and they like him as do I.
It must be the Ann Coulter type of women they are polling for Romney.
Understandable since a good percentage of women think with their ovaries.
PUCK! PUCK! PUCK!
Florida has something even worse, elderly women, who always vote for the “nice young man,” that is, the one with the flashiest teeth and the smarmiest Eddie Haskell-type smile.
Aside from being fully-owned by AARP, they don’t get their information from anything but the evening news.
Unfortunately, I even saw a post from one older female FReeper declaring she wouldn’t vote for Gingrich because he was overweight and not attractive. Very sad.
Makes me ashamed to be a woman - although then I have to remember all the men I read about in the last election who said they wouldn’t vote for Hillary just because she was unattractive, so maybe the stupidity gene kicks in depending on the gender of the candidate.
Yes, but there are only 50.
I don’t think Romney is handsome at all. Everything about him looks like it’s made of plastic and his features are so exaggerated that he looks like the Nutcracker in the Nutcracker Suite or some puppet, maybe Howdy Doody.
This is true. Unfortunately, politics is never about reality but perception. And perception is what we see and hear. This indeed is the reality for much of today’s electorate. Thinking is something many voters don’t even try doing assuming they are capable of so dong. The cascade of anti-Gingrich ads by as much as a 4:1 ratio are having their intended effect. The electorate has become tribal which is what socialists do to gain power. Divide and conquer. It is a tried and tested formula. The Blacks, Hispanics, Women, Jews, Gays, etc are all indoctrinated by the media and their surrogates to vote according to group needs and the negative ads are tailor-made to suit these voting blocs.
I don’t think very many Jews are Republicans, so I suspect their vote doesn’t matter in a GOP primary. Hispanics might matter more, but again, a lot of them are not registered Republicans either.
I think there is a “Rubio effect” here in play.
So Republican female voters will just vote for Obama? I don’t think so. I don’t care what Newt has done. I’m voting for President of the US, not husband of the year. Many past presidents and world leaders have had mistresses, divorces etc. Women love Bill Clinton and he is as big of a cad as there is. Has an “open” marriage too. I can’t believe any dem or Rebpub woman would look down their nose at Newt. After all, private lives are none of our business right? That’s according to the media.
Romney should be running as a Democrat.
If Romney is what the GOP has come to represent, count me out! Romney is a sleaze merchant who couldn’t run on his liberal and failed record as MA governor so instead chose to drag the other GOP candidates down in the mud. I despise that man and will never vote for him. Romney, the self pro-claimed progressive who disavowed Reagan, has no business calling himself a conservative. As much as I hate Obama and the dirtbag Democrat machine, I am going to enjoy watching them smear Romney into oblivion. If we must have a big government progressive statist as president, by all means let him have a D after his name! I, will spend my time working for and donating money to get conservatives elected to Congress and at the local, county, and state level.
This is not the only issue Newt G. has to deal with. Why on earth did he attack capitalism? And his position on illegals is anything but conservative. However, it is still early and much can happen.
Remember, “Voice of Mitt” abbreviated is VoMitt....
I live near the Villages and everyone I know is Newt. Most have voted early. Tuesday night will tell us how mitt really doesn’t add up in floriduh especially with his romneycare with so many retirees in the state.. Go Newt.
Not just the women. You've also got to contend with the couch potato men who get their knowledge of the issues from the mainstream media.
BTW, off the topic, but since you brought up gender, you reminded me of my all-time favorite "Calvin and Hobbes" cartoon:
Rubio is the most over-rated Republican ever. Just another politician who is held in high esteem because he isn’t white. Someday, being non-white won’t be a positive anymore, and voters will judge people on the content of their character and their votes in Congress.
I think you nailed it.
Mittens over 40% and beating Newt by 15%. BS
A January Poll. Before SC Primary? After SC Primary?
Without knowing more details this poll is worthless.
Newt’s first lady answer really hurt him, I fear.
I heard Rubio’s speech in the senate a while back. It was fairly long, I recall about an hour long. It was one of the best, most thoughtful and masterfully delivered speech I have ever heard. This guy has everything going for him, youth, looks, verbal skills, voice, and best of all his espousal of liberty and freedom to succeed in America.
Never should of given those people...women.. the right to vote. Country is has been going to hell ever since... should of left it at smoking...
Romneycare is Mitt’s Achilles’ heel, and it will take Obamacare off the table as an issue in the general if Romney were the nominee. We cannot have this Trojan Horse as the GOP nominee. He will further redefine conservatism as something it isn’t, but the public perception will be perverted for years to come with Romney.
I don’t believe the spread in this poll. The enthusiasm for Newt will prompt a better turnout for him, and hopefully, will propel Newt to a win on Tuesday.
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